Car Nack Predicts 04/06

[Car Nack]

Alliance scores of greater than 100 points will occur throughout the competition.

Car Nack has spoken.

[Courtneyb1023]

To get 100pts you really only need to win autonomous mode, have 3 robots on the ramp at the end, and have 29 balls scored in the 3pt goal. With teams saying their hoppers (or whatever) can hold 40, 50, etc balls and shoot at 2,4,6, etc. balls per second...yea I can see it happening.

80 balls times 3 pts each is 240
10 pts for winning autonomous mode
25 pts at the end for the ramp

There it potential for some high scoring rounds.

[petek]

Ahh, come on Car Nack! You can do better than that! Only 100 measly points? I predict that scores over 150 will be quite common and that it will often take more than 30 pts just to win Autonomous.

[Joe Johnson]

Despite folks claim of obviousness, it is far for obvious to me, and I am not sure I believe it.

150 points? Common? Hard to get to that number in my book.
To get to 150, teams will have have to put up almost 50 balls in the center goal. Even it you win auton & get 3 robots on the ramp, you still have to put up 30 balls in the center goal. I suppose that there will be fewer than 50 robots in all of FIRST than can put up 30 balls in 10 second of auton + 2 40 second offensive periods. Given that fewer than 1 team in 20 can do it on their own, it will take combinations to really run up that kind of score. Combinations reduce probabilities.

100 points? Yes this is easier, but it is far from a trivial task.

I hope that I am all wet and that we see a ton of 100+ and quarter ton of 150+ point matches.

It is going to be an exciting game if it does happen, that much is for sure.

Joe J.

[nuggetsyl]

car nack has not been to nj where defence is king.

shaun

[Paul Copioli]

I'm with Joe on this one. 150 points will happen very few times. Maybe once or twice per competition when the planets align.

Every year, people over-trivialize scoring. Right now, everyone thinks scoring is easy. It is not easy. All the "I can shoot 10 in 6 seconds (or less)" teams that I have seen video of have scored maybe 1/2 of the shot balls. If you can get 30 points in auton, you will win auton more than 80% of the time.

Also, for 40 of your 80 seconds of offense you have someone playing defense on you all the time. They can't do anything else but play defense. You will be extremely harassed for those 40 seconds.

There will be many more matches that have very few points scored in the 3 point goal and will come down to the ramp.

-Paul

[Rich Kressly]

I'm with Joe & Paul ..
would love to see 150+, but that will be the exception, especially after a few weeks when alliances really figure out how to play defense with machines and by hoarding balls in robots and player stations.

[Jon K.]

After watching the Winter Warzone Scrimmage at Suffield Middle School this year, I am beginning to doubt this prediction, and would almost be willing to bet that 150 won't be seen.(But may be possible)

[Joel J]

It'll happen. People's shooters will get better. If not now, then going into week 4, or so.

I agree that teams won't frequently achieve such a high score, but I don't think it will be a "rare" occurence.

[Al Skierkiewicz]

I guess we are going to have to redesign to get the ball count down to 150 to satisfy the mighty Carnack. (chuckle, I couldn't help it)
I think that scores over 100 will be the rule.

[artdutra04]

Originally Posted by Jon K.

After watching the Winter Warzone Scrimmage at Suffield Middle School this year, I am beginning to doubt this prediction, and would almost be willing to bet that 150 won't be seen.(But may be possible)

Our robot can hold about 25 balls, and shoot all of them in 20 seconds. Yesterday at driver practive we were averaging about 85% of all shots that we made from 15-20 feet away from the center goal. If 18 of those balls went in the center goal, then that is 54 points in 20 seconds scored by only one robot. So yes, I think scores of 100+ will not be that uncommon this year.

[meaubry]

Does anyone really think that they will have more than 5 seconds after proving they can hit the 3 pointer, before they get hit!
Defense is the easiest way to keep the scores down.

[Corey Balint]

I expect scores to be much lower than first expected. Defense shall reign supreme. If you expect your robot to not take a hit over a 3 second span while shooting at the center goal, good luck, because its not going to happen.

[DjAlamose]

The biggest problem I can foresee is the fact that there will not be a whole lot of balls to go around. Yes your robot may be able to hold and shoot 25-30 balls in 20-30 seconds but that doesn't mean you will have that many balls. First you have to let the opposing alliance score points so you can get the balls, then you have to get them to your robot, then you have to score them. There will be quite a few matches in my opinion where an alliance will just hold all of the balls until the last 20 seconds of the game and unload. At that point I could see 80-120 points being made. BUT I don't think too may matches will go above 150. here is how i will break it down:

>0 : 90% (penalties)
>20 : 85% (yet again penalties)
>50 : 70%
>75 : 50%
>100 : 30%
>150 : 5%