Car Nack Predicts 12-1 [Archive]

EricH

13-01-2012, 10:56

I'm sorry, but is it wrong to doubt Car Nack?
Go right ahead. Car Nack has an excellent prediction and strategy record, though.

However, there is one element I wish to ask the great Car Nack about for clarification:

Is this prediction for a single alliance, or for both alliances combined?

For if it is a combined alliance score, then I think Car Nack's crystal ball is cloudy. If it is for a single alliance, then I think Car Nack will only have a chance to be proven wrong at IRI--which is after the FRC season.

JamesBrown

13-01-2012, 11:06

If it is for a single alliance, then I think Car Nack will only have a chance to be proven wrong at IRI--which is after the FRC season.

I would say there is still a chance you could see it at Championships,there were a few random alliances last year that were made up of 3 very good robots while it is pretty much a given that you will see super alliances at IRI I would guess that there will be atleast 3 or 4 random alliances per division in St Louis that would have 3 robots capable of scoring all the balls, of course from their things need to bounce right but I think it can happen (and hope it does)

I certainly wouldn't bet money on it but it could happen.

Chris is me

13-01-2012, 11:10

It's going to be a calibration issue more than anything else, I think. Springy rims are not forgiving.

I think all balls will be scored in auto, maybe even several times, but not all 36 points.

pfreivald

13-01-2012, 11:12

Can't a really good autonomous robot score four by itself, without being fed by other robots?

Sean Raia

13-01-2012, 11:14

Car Nack Predicts 12-1

During the FRC season you will never see 36 points scored in the hybrid period.

Car Nack has spoken

I completely agree.

Chris is me

13-01-2012, 11:21

Can't a really good autonomous robot score four by itself, without being fed by other robots?

Six balls, 15 seconds, one goal. Requires a bit too much coordination to work. Besides, you can take a simple one point penalty and shoot for the 2 point goal in autonomous.

jblay

13-01-2012, 11:21

O great car nack, thank you for blessing us with your wisdom for another difficult to predict competition.

And yes I agree with you.

pfreivald

13-01-2012, 12:13

Six balls, 15 seconds, one goal. Requires a bit too much coordination to work. Besides, you can take a simple one point penalty and shoot for the 2 point goal in autonomous.

True that. Good thing to think about when creating autonomous functionality!

Chris Hibner

13-01-2012, 12:57

This will be interesting, but I think that it will be done - maybe even in week 1.

Jeff Rodriguez

13-01-2012, 13:08

1 ball every 2 seconds. When timed perfectly, that leaves 3 seconds to spare.
If it does happen it will be during elims in STL and the alliance will be formed around it. So if it happens, it could happen 10 times.

apalrd

13-01-2012, 13:13

Challenge Accepted.

dez250

13-01-2012, 13:13

I think the bigger problem to overcome is not getting three robots together that could score two balls in the top hoop in auton in 15 seconds. The bigger problem is getting six balls coordinated between three robots not to interfere with one another while being shot. These balls are of decent size and not to come in contact with one another if all six are shot within a short time span (<10 seconds) within the area of the key, will be unlikely I believe.

JesseK

13-01-2012, 13:27

Some of the replies (thanks Chris!) got me thinking about some flip switches, dials, or potentiometers that is set by the drivers when the robot is set down on the field. This would allow them set a delay in shots after they communicate with their alliance for sequencing.

I think CarNack's prediction is dead on (for 36pts on one alliance) because the probability of 3 teams that are both capable of 2 auton balls in the high goal AND also capable of setting a delay on the fly being on the same alliance are incredibly low for quals and almost non-existent for elims.

The only wild card that may allow us to see this in elims is the Kinect combined with an alliance that has 1 delayed robot, 1 robot that is controlled with Kinect but mostly does its own thing, and 1 robot that can spit the balls out the bottom of the bot in a precise and controlled manner.

LinuxArchitect

13-01-2012, 13:28

Car Nack Predicts 12-1

During the FRC season you will never see 36 points scored in the hybrid period.

Car Nack has spoken

I predict more than 36(*) in the elimination rounds at DC. That is week 5, 3 weeks after many of the teams will have been together at the Baltimore event.

*: don't forget the balls on the bridges; one robot moves directly there while partners shoot, then shoots two while collecting two or more to shoot again. I'd have(**) a wide robot with two side by side shooter mechanisms.

**: not that I think my team will do it; they ignore my ideas a lot

Racer26

13-01-2012, 13:44

Yup. I'm gonna go ahead right now and suggest that Car Nack will be wrong on this one.

I can even tell you the 2 team (#1 seed and their first choice) alliance that I think will do it, together, at THREE (and possibly FOUR, depending on division split) regular season events.

Ian Curtis

13-01-2012, 14:03

It is a shame @FRCFMS wasn't around in 2006, so does anyone know the highest autonomous score in 2006? There won't be any defensive robots to worry about, but the goal is a much smaller and thus harder target, so I think it would be a good indicator.

I'm inclined to agree with Car Nack. I haven't gotten to play with real field elements, but I think going for 36 a potential snag may be balls hanging around in the nets and causing a backlog. You've got to cram a lot balls into the hoops in a short period.

JamesBrown

13-01-2012, 14:09

I didn't really consider it earlier but I would bet that atleast 10 teams have an autonomous that can score their two balls, then collect and score the two ramp balls, that should then require the other two teams to score 3 of their balls in any goal, or 2 in the top. This seems very feasible in elimination rounds, definitely at Champs.

Edit: I am pretty sure it was not the intent of Car Nack but technically scoring 4 in the top and 3 elsewhere may score more than 36 points, meaning Car Nack would still be correct.

Chris Hibner

13-01-2012, 14:10

If it does happen, I'll be shocked if it happens with all three robots shooting.

Jeff Rodriguez

13-01-2012, 16:14

pfreivald

13-01-2012, 18:30

Edit: I am pretty sure it was not the intent of Car Nack but technically scoring 4 in the top and 3 elsewhere may score more than 36 points, meaning Car Nack would still be correct.

The way the game is set up, it is technically possible to score 96 points in the autonomous period. Of course, that requires godlike autonomous AND opponents with no balls in their possession!

Siri

13-01-2012, 20:18

If it does happen, I'll be shocked if it happens with all three robots shooting.That's what I was thinking. To all non-shooter robots--can you set up in front of a shooter (if you're low enough) and let your preloads roll into a shooting robot's collector? Thank you!

Brandon_L

14-01-2012, 01:05

3+3 points=6 per ball x 2 balls per robot=12 x 3 robots = 36.

I believe that it is entirely possible to score all 36 points, but the problem is that the robots will all be shooting for the top goal at the same time. Have your programmers delay your shooting a bit, or work with your alliance and decide an order of shooting. Ex: robot 1 shoots their balls in the first 4~ seconds, then robot 2, then 3.

AllenGregoryIV

14-01-2012, 02:44

That's what I was thinking. To all non-shooter robots--can you set up in front of a shooter (if you're low enough) and let your preloads roll into a shooting robot's collector? Thank you!

I remember seeing this in 2006 (on Einstein I believe). This is how 36 points will be put up in an autonomous mode, if it happens at all.

I know a lot of people are trying for the 4 ball autonomous but I don't see many teams getting it work. Also a 2 line program on a kitbot robot can defend a 4 ball autonomous routine every time. (Run into the bridge before the 4 ball team can get there).

indubitably

14-01-2012, 02:53

I have to disagree with this, I feel a top tier team is going to be able to score 4 top shots on a really good hybrid period, all they need is one partner in elims who delays their shooter to score while they gather two more, possibly with the assistance of the kinect.

I LOVE ROBOTS!

14-01-2012, 03:19

Car Nack Predicts 12-1

During the FRC season you will never see 36 points scored in the hybrid period.

Car Nack has spoken

I think you'll a hybrid score over 36 the very first week... unless you exclude penalites :p

Donut

14-01-2012, 11:25

I remember seeing this in 2006 (on Einstein I believe). This is how 36 points will be put up in an autonomous mode, if it happens at all.

I know a lot of people are trying for the 4 ball autonomous but I don't see many teams getting it work. Also a 2 line program on a kitbot robot can defend a 4 ball autonomous routine every time. (Run into the bridge before the 4 ball team can get there).

Keep in mind there are another 2 balls available from the alliance bridge if a team is really concerned about about defensive autonomous for the center bridge.

I believe Car Nack is correct, but in that no alliance will score 36 points with the balls they have starting in their robots. If any robot can get balls from a bridge in autonomous I think the great Car Nack's prediction will be broken, since the alliance can score beyond 36 without all shooting in the top hoop (of course, if they exceed 36 points, Car Nack's prediction still holds true).

Hawiian Cadder

14-01-2012, 11:25

I bet there is a team that manages to score the balls they start with, and then go to the middle bridge and claim more. I don't think we will ever see 3 robots score 36 points with even distribution, but i can see a high rate shooter scoring many more points just by themselves.

pandamonium

14-01-2012, 13:25

I also think that Car Nack is wrong.
In theory...
One robot can shoot two... Go to ramp... lower ramp... colect 2 - 6 shoot 2 - 6... then strafe to aliance ramp... colect 2 shoot 2...

Pandamonium predicts in eliminations strong auto modes are more important than 3 on ramp.

Nathan Streeter

16-01-2012, 21:09

Assuming Car Nack meant that a single alliance will never score more than 36 points in auto, I would say he's likely going to be wrong, but very rarely!

Given that we could have some robots feeding into a great scorer, a robot getting the balls from one or both of their available ramps, etc. I think this'll happen on a few occasions throughout the competition season... it'll be attempted many, many more times!

Swampdude

27-02-2012, 21:06

I'm seeing a lot of bots that collect on the opposite side of their shooter. With a second bot that tips the bridge from the side (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD3R8JyZycw), these balls roll straight into a center key shooter rear collector if they keep it running in autonomous (please do this if you're competing in Florida!). I think 36 is very possible.

JABot67

03-03-2012, 19:57

JesseK

03-03-2012, 20:10

we had a Rube Goldberg autonomous setup.

I hope someone caught it on camera! Sounds pretty interesting.

johnmaguire2013

03-03-2012, 20:18

Technically, Car Nack wins. Our alliance at Kettering (862, 3322, 3601) scored 6 balls in the top hoop in autonomous, but the last score was counted in teleop. I will post video as soon as I can find some... we had a Rube Goldberg autonomous setup.

Came here to say this. It was seriously awesome.

This was done with Team 3322 (a consistent, very very strong shooter), Team 862 (a shooter) and team 3601 (a feeder bot with an open top) by lining the three up very close to each other, with 3322 being at the key.

KEY
3322
3601 862

They were all touching each other. When autonomous begins our robot shoots its two balls (which it has never missed as far as I'm aware,) then 3601 passes its two balls to us through the feeder by reversing the feeder motor (something I believe was already a part of their design, they simply modified their autonomous to do it.) As its doings this, 862 shoots at a very low RPM their balls into 3601's open-topped ball holder. The motors still turning, it sends the balls to us as we have already shot the first two 3601 gave us. We then shoot the two 3601 passed to us.

I don't believe we ever got less than four, except for during one field error which we re-played and I believe that was the match in which we got all six (technically.) Our average was about five. The reason we didn't get six every time was simply due to the variables: the way the balls that 862 shot to 3601 bounced before getting sucked down into the feeder, a ball which just barely bounced off the rim (almost unheard of for our autonomous until we tried shooting so many balls.)

It was really great.

JABot67

03-03-2012, 20:28

Here's proof:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3oNVwsSWns

Doesn't really show how it works though...

IKE

03-03-2012, 21:10

The 3322-3601-862 maneuver was honestly one of the coolest things I have ever seen in FRC. I am seriously impressed you guys put that together, had it soo successful, had it so repeatable, in Week1! That deserved a creativity award in my book. It was one of those moves that people talk about, but it was truly amazing you guys did it.

Joe J.

03-03-2012, 23:13

This was team work at its finest, that strategy was all student thought up and implemented.

It was amazing watching all three teams work this out on the practice field, deploying the final code in queuing right before our match and to have it work so consistently.

Steven Donow

03-03-2012, 23:29

Wow, that passing maneuver is seriously just too cool.

Nathan Streeter

03-03-2012, 23:35

Wow, sounds truly awesome! Yeah, definitely the kind of play teams talk about often, but that I've rarely seen implemented... Congratulations, guys!

(Just to confirm, you never ended up getting all 6 in during hybrid... to get 36 auto points?)

jyh947

03-03-2012, 23:36

All six balls passed the rim before the buzzer, but the 6th ball didn't pass the sensor (how the FMS scores a match) before the buzzer.

JABot67

03-03-2012, 23:37

(Just to confirm, you never ended up getting all 6 in during hybrid... to get 36 auto points?)

We got 33 in the third final match. We shot the sixth ball in auton and it went in the top basket, but by the time it passed through the ball counter it was the teleop period.

msaunders

04-03-2012, 12:22

Here is another video of the match showing the three robot setup in more detail.

Kettering Finals Match 003 (http://youtu.be/Z4Id9IR_HCU)

Kettering Finals Match 001 (http://youtu.be/PFiLn3HW2FE)

Kettering Finals Match 002 (http://youtu.be/CmbPvh6gors)

johnmaguire2013

04-03-2012, 12:47

Here's a video of us testing the autonomous code during lunch (we didn't get to test the slight modification which put us within the time limit, but we made 862 fire two seconds quicker): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo-SUmQRjRM

DampRobot

04-03-2012, 12:51

Although I'm not quite ready to say Car Nack I wrong, I think most teams should do fairly well in hybrid, potentialy beter than in teleop. The conditions are similar to all those team youtube demos we saw, were robots seamingly always made three pointers. No defense, balls already loaded, repeatable position. In teleop (where I at least was underwhelmed by shooter preformance), you need autoaim to score consistantly, which most teams can't use. Hybrid performance doesn't need as sophisticated software.

johnmaguire2013

04-03-2012, 12:56

DampRobot

04-03-2012, 13:04

I would agree, except for one point. Our robot was very consistent with scoring. If the shooter and ball loader is done properly, I think all robots could be as consistent.

My point isn't that it is impossible to make a consistant shooter (otherwise hybrid scoring would be equally hard). I'm just trying to make the point that software for hybrid is a lot easier than software for teleop.

johnmaguire2013

04-03-2012, 13:05

My point isn't that it is impossible to make a consistant shooter (otherwise hybrid scoring would be equally hard). I'm just trying to make the point that software for hybrid is a lot easier than software for teleop.

That's fair enough. However, I guess my point was that we don't use auto-aim either. It's all done by the driver by eyesight (in fact, I don't think we even had the camera on the dashboard working.) But our shooter is consistent with how far it shoots at any given RPM, and therefore we have presets for different RPMs (i.e. at the key, behind the key, etc.) and also can add or subtract a certain amount of RPM with a different button.

DampRobot

04-03-2012, 13:08

That's fair enough. However, I guess my point was that we don't use auto-aim either. It's all done by the driver by eyesight (in fact, I don't think we even had the camera on the dashboard working.) But our shooter is consistent with how far it shoots at any given RPM, and therefore we have presets for different RPMs (i.e. at the key, behind the key, etc.) and also can add or subtract a certain amount of RPM with a different button.

Wow, I'm intersted that that works. Concidering our sucess with geting autoaim working,I might sugest this approach to our programmers!

Jaxom

04-03-2012, 13:43

In teleop (where I at least was underwhelmed by shooter preformance), you need autoaim to score consistantly....

Not necessarily. I think if you expect to hit from anywhere on the field (within reason) then it'd be more important. But if you know how fast to spin your shooter from a limited number of places (key, fender, wherever) you already have the distance part covered. Aiming from a pic on the dashboard, or just by sight from the DS, gets the rest. The backboard can give you some leeway, too.

Having a low enough gear to allow for very small movements probably makes a pretty big difference. I saw a number of robots in KC oscillating and over-compensating trying to get on target in too high of a gear.

Nuttyman54

04-03-2012, 20:52

We got 33 in the third final match. We shot the sixth ball in auton and it went in the top basket, but by the time it passed through the ball counter it was the teleop period.

If this was actually the case, then it's a failure of the system and should have counted. Relevant Q&A:

Q. If a robot shoots a ball during hybrid mode that enters the hoop after teleop begins, will the 3pt bonus still apply? FRC1741 2012-01-30

A. Any Basketball that enters the Hoop during the Hybrid period will receive the Hybrid bonus.

From this video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3oNVwsSWns), it seems that it should have counted. FIRST needs to come up with a system to address this, if they're going to state that the rules will be called as such.

ahollenbach

10-03-2012, 16:52

Today at the Finger Lakes Regional Elimination match 10 (1551 3613 229,3173 1126 174), 3173 1126 and 174 managed to score 36 :)

Jacob Paikoff

10-03-2012, 19:54

It almost happened at Orlando as well. The number 1 alliance (744,180,3556) could get 5 but the other one would always rim out.

JosephC

10-03-2012, 20:33

Today at the Finger Lakes Regional Elimination match 10 (1551 3613 229,3173 1126 174), 3173 1126 and 174 managed to score 36 :)

I do believe it also happened at Waterford during the Finals with 67, 469, and 2851.

And... Car Nack has been proven wrong.

JABot67

10-03-2012, 20:36

I do believe it also happened at Waterford during the Finals with 67, 469, and 2851.

And... Car Nack has been proven wrong.

Are you sure? I was there and I don't remember them getting 36 points in hybrid.

JosephC

10-03-2012, 20:38

I may be wrong, I was down on the field when I thought it happened.

Adam Freeman

10-03-2012, 20:40

I do believe it also happened at Waterford during the Finals with 67, 469, and 2851.

And... Car Nack has been proven wrong.

Our alliance never came close to scoring 36pts in Hybrid. I think the most we got was 24pts (maybe...).

JosephC

10-03-2012, 20:43

I could of sworn that 67 pulled off 30 at one point or another.

BrendanB

10-03-2012, 20:45

Team 188, 610, and 3360 did it in SF 2-1.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89B6KcduI2w&list=PLDB1C34562C633A0E&index=72&feature=plpp_video

Sconrad

10-03-2012, 21:22

I don't know about 36 points, but I would love to see a 7-point autonomous;)

pfreivald

10-03-2012, 21:23

Today at the Finger Lakes Regional Elimination match 10 (1551 3613 229,3173 1126 174), 3173 1126 and 174 managed to score 36 :)

Indeed it did! It was a very impressive ouchy to be on the receiving end of!

pandamonium

11-03-2012, 12:56

Breaking this in week 2 leads me to believe that the record of 36 will be broken again. 48 does not seem impossible.

gyroscopeRaptor

11-03-2012, 14:10

I could see an exhibition match at IRI where all the balls are on the center bridge and the baskets keep happening. I'm still doubting 48 due to the fact that three shooters would have to spin up and fire 8 balls in less than 15 seconds, but I could see 40ish from two pointers.

Travis Hoffman

11-03-2012, 21:10

This was counted at the Pittsburgh Regional as a 6-ball, 36-point hybrid mode:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24bx4J4tNq8

The final score is shown on the screen at match end as 51 Basket Points and 20 Bridge Points, but the head ref adjusted the score to 74-0 to account for the extra three points not credited in hybrid.

I'll take it. :p

wo-bot 141

18-03-2012, 01:31

Also was done in the 3rd round of West Michigan District Event. with 2054, 3546, and 141.

Donut

24-03-2012, 00:57

Match 47 at Wisconsin today with teams 3418, 2481, and 2062 had a 36 point autonomous. At this point I believe this is the first qualification match to have it happen.

Hallry

24-03-2012, 15:46

Well, I believe 341, 233, and 246 just proved Carnack wrong by getting 46 points in Hybrid mode in the second (and last) finals match in Boston.

1114, 2056, and 4372 also just got 36 points in hybrid in the second (and last) final match in Waterloo.

vikesrock777

24-03-2012, 21:28

1114, 2056, and 4372 also just got 36 points in hybrid in the second (and last) final match in Waterloo.
1114, 2056, and 4372 also got 41 the match before.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7inQWqIW9k&list
Fast forward to about 6:10 for the start of autonomous.

SciBorg Dave

08-04-2012, 16:23

mwmac

08-04-2012, 17:48

Spokane regional team 2122-1983-4082 just did 36 in the finals 2 times in a row. To make things more interesting team 4082 had no mechanical shooter or a mechanical way you outbound the balls. I hope they get a video up and running of the finals for all to see.

Thanks Dave for the kind words. It took us the qtrs and semis to get hybrid dialed in cleanly just in time for the finals. Thanks go to our friends on 1983 (especially for being open to our hybrid idea), and to our new friends on 4082. See you all in St. Louis!

Kris Verdeyen

09-04-2012, 11:00

I've noticed that i am bad at using Chief Delphi's user interface (thanks Leeland). It would be interesting to see what his overall record is with the benefit of hindsight, because this year, it's pretty bad...

LeelandS

09-04-2012, 11:13

I've noticed that all of Car Nack's predictions from previous years have been taken down. It would be interesting to see what his overall record is with the benefit of hindsight, because this year, it's pretty bad...

If you go to the 'Car Nack's Corner' section of the forums, you can change the range of times the threads are shown. If you change it to 'from the beginning', you can see all of Car Nack's predictions.

Overall, he's usually pretty accurate. He usually has about 1, maybe 2, incorrect prediction a year, or is not proven wrong until the championship when the best teams ally and beat the bejeezus out of his predictions. I guess it's just an off year for the Wise One from The Endless Sands.

I don't expect it to happen often, if ever again.

EricH

09-04-2012, 11:23

I've noticed that all of Car Nack's predictions from previous years have been taken down. It would be interesting to see what his overall record is with the benefit of hindsight, because this year, it's pretty bad...
I can still see the threads in Car Nack's Corner going back to 2004. This isn't the first time that I've been able to see stuff going farther back than someone else, though...

And wouldn't you know it, I once decided to try to track Car Nack's record.

This year he's actually 1-2. (#2 is pretty much spot on.)
Last year: 1-2.
2010: 3-2 (#5 that year, a scoring prediction, actually had two, both correct.)
2009: 3-1, with the one incorrect one being fans not being any good. (#4 that year was that 1/12 of Einstein would have a fan.)
2008: 2-1, with the incorrect one being half of a double and the other, more specific half (at least one event), being correct.
2007: 2-1; keepers weren't rare as predicted, but at least one event had <5 as predicted.
2006: 3-3. One of the successes was the use of at least four "real time humans" due to problems with the scoring system. One of the few Car Nack publicly hoped he was wrong about...
2005: 1-2, with one unconfirmed. (The unconfirmed one was an average number of tetras; one of the incorrect predictions was a preseason "There will be no three-team alliances".)
2004: 7 predictions. 3-2 record. One prediction--a high score--I haven't seen any evidence either way. Another had a given which was resolved and therefore cannot be called as either correct or incorrect. And no, I didn't see any straitjackets for the real-time scoring operator.

Overall... 19-16, 2 unconfirmed. About 54%.

mwmac

09-04-2012, 18:25

Spokane regional team 2122-1983-4082 just did 36 in the finals 2 times in a row. To make things more interesting team 4082 had no mechanical shooter or a mechanical way you outbound the balls. I hope they get a video up and running of the finals for all to see.

Check out hybrid in Finals Match 1 at approx. 7:20 mark...enjoy

http://www.justin.tv/firstwa1/b/314237877

mwmac

10-04-2012, 11:50

Check out hybrid in Finals Match 1 at approx. 7:20 mark...enjoy

http://www.justin.tv/firstwa1/b/314237877

Link no longer works,

Here is a video that shows Finals Match 2 with hybrid scoring...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ofefwcw56Ow

jvriezen

10-04-2012, 12:03

2530, 2232 & 2538 scored 36 in hybrid, in the 2nd match of Semi's -- Here's video with audio of the drivers cheering their robots as they accomplish the feat. (The 36 pts are scored on the far basket)

An additional 37 basket points were scored during Tele-op for a total of 73 points from baskets alone. It was high score at 10K Lakes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWdIoG4N5lQ