YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2013's Week 1 Regionals

[Ian Curtis]

I know there is a match score prediction thread, but this is a specific question I've been asking for several years and am interested in keeping it going. Mostly, this thread is so we can look back in seven weeks and realize how terribly wrong we were. Qualifying round is probably the most useful, but elimination scores are interesting to try and peg as well. Since I'm posting this a week later than usual, I wonder if that'll change where the predictions stand relative to the truth.

If you can post a reasoning that's awesome, but we'll take just a number as well.

Here are the last four years:
You Predict the Average Match Score of 2012's Week 1 Regionals (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=99342)
You Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88384)
You Predict the Average Match Score of 2010's Week 1 Regionals (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79968)
You Predict the Average Match Score of 2009's Week 1 Regionals (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71231)

Here is some data about week 1 in 2012. (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=104267)

[Jeffy]

Qual: 24
Elim: 55

[Gregor]

Auto
1/6 robots will be able to score 3 disks in auto. 6*3/6=3
Average Auto score will be 3.

Teleop (excluding coloured disks)
1/3 robots will have effective disk manipulating systems.
Teams with effective disk manipulators will be able to score 8 disks in the high goal, or 24 points. 24/3=8
Average Teleop score will be 8.

Climbing
1/3 robots will be able to climb for 10 points. 1/20 will be able to climb for 30 points. 10/3=3.3 30/20=1.5
3.3 +1.5 =~5
Average climbing score will be 5.

Coloured Disks
1/20 robots will be able to score 4 coloured disks. 4*5=20 20/20=1
Average coloured disk score will be 1



3+8+5+1=17
Average week 1 score will be 17 points.

[JackS]

The average winning alliance will score 25 points.
The average losing alliance will score 10 points.
The the average alliance score for Week 1 will be 17.5 points.

[StAxis]

Automode most teams won't have it up and those that do will be shaky
Average for total alliance week one: 4 points
Teleop some teams will be decent at scoring due to the consistency of frisbees so for the whole alliance: 12
Hanging there will be only a couple teams capable of hanging and most teams won't be able to do anything more than one. That being said most teams will fail to hang consistently so with that in mind
Endgame Average alliance score: 11 points

Total average score for week one: 27
Winning alliances will score an average of 35
Losing alliances will score an average of 23

In eliminations
Average auto: 18
Average teleop: 20
Average hang: 25
Average total: 63

(Edited to add eliminations)

[Littleboy]

Average scores per qualifying alliance
Average autonomous: 5 points
Average teleop: 9 points
Average hanging: 7 points
Total score per qualifying alliance: 21 points
Elimination scores will be slightly higher. Probably about 30 points total on average.

[efoote868]

Qual 20
Elim 60

[Basel A]

Average qual score: 20
Average elim score: 45

[Basel A]

Average qual score: 20
Winning: 30
Losing: 10
Average elim score: 45

[DampRobot]

Average qual score: 20
Median qual score: 26

Average elim score: 50

I think there will be a large gap between the best robots at a regional and most of the rest. This gap would drive up median qual score in relation to the average. Hanging for 30 is probably going to be something that only 4 or 5 robots at a regional can really do.

[Ian Curtis]

I think there will be a large gap between the best robots at a regional and most of the rest. This gap would drive up median qual score in relation to the average.

I think you mixed up your terminology. A few elite robots would drive the average (or mean) up relative to the median. :)

Consider these two sets of numbers:

A: 1, 2, 3
B: 1, 2, 99

For Set A, the mean (or average) = median = 2.
For Set B, the mean (or average) = 34, while the median is still 2.

[dodar]

Avg Winning Qual score: 35
Avg Losing Qual score: 15
Avg Winning Elim score: 65
Avg Losing Elim score: 45
High Score: 80
Low Score: 0

[Darth Drew]

My prediction is an average of 35 points per alliance (at the Kettering Regional).

[Taylor]

For Week 1 events, a total alliance score of 12 will win most of the qualification matches.
Elimination winning scores will leap to an average of 40.

[Alex Cormier]

Qual: 12.65
Elim: 34.75

[Fastnate]

Average Qual score: 20

Average Elim score: 50

[bduddy]

20 will be enough to win all but a few qualifying matches - I don't see most alliances accomplishing much more than a couple scored frisbees and one Level 1 hang, with penalties canceling a lot of that out. Elims might be slightly better, but I don't see many scores above 50 and I would be surprised if there are any above 75.

[Austin2046]

Quals: 28
Elims: 52

High score: 74

[Gregor]

Are we normally this far off?

[coalhot]

Are we normally this far off?

Look at the links in the OP. The answer is (I think) so.

[Grim Tuesday]

We usually overestimate. I'd say that this year our net 'offness' is considerably worse than usual.

[Peter Matteson]

Did someone post averages already that I missed?

[Basel A]

Week 1
Quals: 45.2
Winning: 59.7
Losing: 29.3
Elims: 80.4
Winning: 100.3
Losing: 60.5

Week 2
Quals: 43.3
Winning: 60.1
Losing: 28.3
Elims: 85.1
Winning: 105.4
Losing: 64.8

[bduddy]

Are we normally this far off?Yes, but usually in the opposite direction.

[Zebra_Fact_Man]

This year, everyone seemed to think that week 1 teams were going to suck despite the ridiculous amount of points possible.

[KrazyCarl92]

Elims: 93.7
Winning: 105.4
Losing: 64.8

Mathematically speaking, these numbers must be wrong (at least one of them). There is an equal number of winning scores and losing scores, so the average elims score should be equal to the average of the winning alliance scores and losing alliance scores. I get 85.1 when I do this calculation, which contradicts the 93.7, indicating one of the 3 numbers must be incorrect. For the rest of the numbers presented, this result is almost observed (within a point).

[Basel A]

Mathematically speaking, these numbers must be wrong (at least one of them). There is an equal number of winning scores and losing scores, so the average elims score should be equal to the average of the winning alliance scores and losing alliance scores. I get 85.1 when I do this calculation, which contradicts the 93.7, indicating one of the 3 numbers must be incorrect. For the rest of the numbers presented, this result is almost observed (within a point).

I don't know what I did, but whatever it was was wrong. Corrected.

[Peter Matteson]

This year, everyone seemed to think that week 1 teams were going to suck despite the ridiculous amount of points possible.

In general I think everyone assumed shooting discs would be harder and that fewer week one regional robots would be fully functional. The averages for week one are closer to what I thought week 3 would be.

[Racer26]

I think we all underestimated just how consistent these game pieces are in comparison to all other years in recent memory (barring 2008, and maybe 2010 perhaps)