Car Nack Prredicts 13-1 [Archive]

wilsonmw04

14-01-2013, 14:16

Car Nack is BACK! Woo!

I want to concur with Car Nack on this one, but I can only think of one or two regionals with sufficiently shallow fields that I would consider it a possibility.

I don't think it's a lack of a strong field. I think it's more of a function of the difficulty of the task. I will go out on a limb and say that the majority of the regionals will not have 30 point climb.

NotaJoke

14-01-2013, 14:16

If not regional, then surely there will be districts without a level 3 hang/climb.

CalTran

14-01-2013, 14:22

Car Nack Predicts 13-1

There will be some Regionals where no robot will score a 30 point climb.

Car Nack has spoken.

Car Nack's back. Sweet. As for this, I would harzard a guess as to say that he's right. The intention to climb up to the 3rd level does not always translate to the ability to climb to the 3rd level.

Basel A

14-01-2013, 14:28

I don't think it's a lack of a strong field. I think it's more of a function of the difficulty of the task. I will go out on a limb and say that the majority of the regionals will not have 30 point climb.

I almost agree with you, but it's hard to predict, especially so early in the season. I'd guess anywhere from 40-60% won't have a 30-point climb. I'd be confident to say 40%, though. Either way, Car Nack's prediction sounds like a no-brainer to me.

Racer26

14-01-2013, 14:31

I don't know, it depends a lot on the value proposition by the elite teams. If the teams like 1114, 2056, 148, 217, 254, 1625, 1717, 469, 233, 365, 341, and more decide to go for it, they will likely succeed. How many events don't have at least one perennial powerhouse in attendance?

The only one I know of is Montreal.

wilsonmw04

14-01-2013, 14:46

... How many events don't have at least one perennial powerhouse in attendance?...

More unlikely than likely.

Mr. Lim

14-01-2013, 14:50

MARS_James

14-01-2013, 15:05

Painful, but true.

To add my own twist to this...

During 1st week, I think over 50% of >10pt climb attempts will (or should) be illegal due to robots breaking the 54" cylinder rule.

Teams won't take into account that a) the bumpers are included in the cylinder, or b) the cylinder is always projected vertically from the floor.

You can't reach forward very far, or have your robot tip very much while climbing.

Where does it say that invalidates the climb I thought it would be just a normal penalty

Mr. Lim

14-01-2013, 15:15

Where does it say that invalidates the climb I thought it would be just a normal penalty

Good point.

We were having this discussion about repeatedly + intentionally breaking the rules. The example in another thread was repeatedly carrying 6 alliance frisbees instead of 4 because the points scored outweigh the penalty. Or possessing more than 4 frisbees in autonomous mode. I don't think any of these things are in the spirit of the game... but...

Yes, illegal might just mean that you take the penalty... but the climb still counts.

I guess we'll find out soon enough!

waialua359

14-01-2013, 15:55

I think we will hardly see any 30 point climbs at most regionals this year.
The problem wont be that teams cant climb, I find the problem to be creating a robot that can do it, without breaking the 54" cylinder rule while climbing AND having a robot that scores discs.
It seems that the limitations this year has almost forced teams to create a one function robot.
Of course, you have the teams that can/will do everything and well. However, that wont be the majority of teams participating this year.
The footprint rule constraint which includes the bumpers is a challenging one, especially when we see shooter designs that take up almost the entire 112" perimeter as well.

Thank God for SolidWorks. :)

Koko Ed

14-01-2013, 16:05

I think many teams will avoid the 30 point climb when weighing the risk/reward benefits. Do we need to risk a 30 point climb or do we want a functioning robot at the end of the event. All you need is one mistake to put participating on Saturday afternoon at risk.

MisterG

14-01-2013, 16:22

The rules don't seem to be specific about the consequences of violating R3 (size constraints) could be more Q&A fodder.

The OP prediction may come true but by the same token there will be several regionals with 4-5 bots that will score 30 point climbs.

connor.worley

14-01-2013, 16:45

Can we go as far as to say that there will never be more than two robots successfully making level 3 climbs in the same match?

Jared Russell

14-01-2013, 16:48

Can we go as far as to say that there will never be more than two robots successfully making level 3 climbs in the same match?

The only way I see three robots doing 30 point climbs in the same match is (a) at IRI or (b) a very, very luckily scheduled qualification match.

xSAWxBLADEx

14-01-2013, 17:01

The only way I see three robots doing 30 point climbs in the same match is (a) at IRI or (b) a very, very luckily scheduled qualification match.

MSC will have a match where they will have 2 or more robots that climb to the 3rd tier. I guarantee it.

Racer26

14-01-2013, 17:08

Littleboy

14-01-2013, 17:15

Thats probably dependent on if 188 plays or not. As of now, they are still not re-registered.

Ian Curtis

14-01-2013, 17:19

How about the relatively common Ontario finals matchup of 1114/2056/x vs 188/610/x?

I could see finals at a regional with 3 or 4 powerhouses resulting in 3 or 4 robots on a 30pt climb.

Also: @KokoEd, tell that to 190 in 2004. They climbed their bot up to the 10ft bar and spread wings to block others from hanging on the bar, during autonomous.

They also spent at least 1 regional tipping over quite frequently trying to do so... :p

I think if you are smart enough to get up there you are smart enough to stay up there. But I also think the bar to get up to a 30 point hang is much higher than many teams realize.

dellagd

14-01-2013, 17:20

The only way I see three robots doing 30 point climbs in the same match is (a) at IRI or (b) a very, very luckily scheduled qualification match.

Three robots will be a sight but I feel here in MAR two will be something that isnt TOO uncommon.

slijin

14-01-2013, 17:51

Car Nack's back. Sweet. As for this, I would harzard a guess as to say that he's right. The intention to climb up to the 3rd level does not always translate to the ability to climb to the 3rd level.

Moreover, the ability to climb won't necessarily translate into the act of climbing.

If a team isn't fully confident in their mechanism or doesn't want to reveal it, and they're far enough ahead based on disc points alone (which, if they can climb for 30, they probably will be), I'd be surprised if they climbed.

Karthik

14-01-2013, 18:08

Car Nack Predicts 13-1

There will be some Regionals where no robot will score a 30 point climb.

Car Nack has spoken.

Some background information here. Taking a look at qualifying results from 2010 we find that:

- Israel had 1 successful hang: http://www2.usfirst.org/2010comp/Events/is/rankings.html
- Utah had 2 successful hangs: http://www2.usfirst.org/2010comp/Events/ut/rankings.html
- Oregon had 3 successful hangs: http://www2.usfirst.org/2010comp/Events/or/rankings.html

Before someone asks, Number of Hangs = Hanging Points / (2*3), because hangs were were worth two points, and the entire alliance got credit for each successful hang performed by the alliance members.

Considering the difference in difficulty between hanging in 2010 and climbing in 2013, I think that Car Nack is definitely on the right track. (Of course Climbing is weighted significantly higher compared to the other game tasks than Hanging was to the game tasks of 2010)

Libby K

14-01-2013, 18:25

Good point.

We were having this discussion about repeatedly + intentionally breaking the rules. The example in another thread was repeatedly carrying 6 alliance frisbees instead of 4 because the points scored outweigh the penalty. Or possessing more than 4 frisbees in autonomous mode. I don't think any of these things are in the spirit of the game... but...

Yes, illegal might just mean that you take the penalty... but the climb still counts.

I guess we'll find out soon enough!

....I'm not one for intense, snap-judgements on CD (or at least posting them 'aloud') but that has got to be one of the most idiotic ideas I've ever heard.

If you don't want to play in the spirit of the game, JUST STOP PLAYING.
Don't worry, that horrendous attitude towards getting around the rules? It won't be missed. Not one bit.

Might I bring this up again, because it clearly needs to be revisited:
To quote Woodie, “FIRST does not celebrate being an incompetent jerk. FIRST does celebrate high-quality, well-informed work done in a manner that leaves everyone feeling valued.” In other words, bullying, coercion, and unsportsmanlike conduct have no place in FIRST.

I'm really disappointed that strategies like that even cross people's minds. We're supposed to be better than that, as a community. Why stoop to that level?

connor.worley

14-01-2013, 18:30

....

No need to rant, just let them get yellow/red carded.

Ian Curtis

14-01-2013, 18:34

....

I don't think a Car Nack thread is an appropriate place for this discussion, and I really don't think what seems like a borderline personal attack is warranted.

Jared Russell

14-01-2013, 18:35

No need to rant, just let them get yellow/red carded.

Cite a rule?

We asked for a clarification of G24 in Q&A. We'll see if/how it is answered.

connor.worley

14-01-2013, 18:38

Cite a rule?

We asked for a clarification of G24 in Q&A. We'll see if/how it is answered.

Section 5.5.4 YELLOW and RED CARDS

The Head Referee may assign a YELLOW or RED CARD as a result of egregious ROBOT or Team member behavior at the ARENA.

...

Examples of egregious behavior include, but are not limited to, severe and/or repeated violations of a rule and inappropriate behavior.

Libby K

14-01-2013, 18:39

I don't think a Car Nack thread is an appropriate place for this discussion, and I really don't think what seems like a borderline personal attack is warranted.

Wasn't anything personal, but thanks.

I don't plan on continuing this discussion here- if anyone wants to discuss it with me, PM is just fine. I don't want to hijack the thread.

1). I don't think it's particularly great that this is even an option, that any action in the game that gets you penalties also gets you awards, but

2). It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to intentionally state that you want to get around the rules and play outside of the 'spirit of the game'. Something FIRST doesn't want from 'traditional' sports is that do-anything-to-win, even if it hurts someone else, attitude. It just doesn't belong here.

And with that, I'm out - because you're right, this isn't the right thread.

If anyone wants to take this up with me, send me a PM.

stryker0603

15-01-2013, 00:34

If not regional, then surely there will be districts without a level 3 hang/climb.

I would actually say that there will be more regionals that do not have a level 3 hang then there will be districts. Lots of powerhouse teams packed into 10 competitions with 2 districts each will make it hard to not see any level 3 hangs.

bduddy

15-01-2013, 00:56

Let us hope that the great Car Nack does better than last year... he was 1-2, and the 1 was pretty much a gimme! I do think this will be right, though... some regionals have had enough trouble with games where you only have to climb once, and now they have to climb 3 times in the same game (and, if the discussion in that other thread is correct, have a really tall team member to get the robot down!)

DampRobot

15-01-2013, 01:26

Painful, but true.

To add my own twist to this...

During 1st week, I think over 50% of >10pt climb attempts will (or should) be illegal due to robots breaking the 54" cylinder rule.

Teams won't take into account that a) the bumpers are included in the cylinder, or b) the cylinder is always projected vertically from the floor.

You can't reach forward very far, or have your robot tip very much while climbing.

Could you quote the rule for this? It was my understanding that since the BUMPERS are attached to the ROBOT, and since it is the ROBOT that needed to fit within the 54" cylinder, the ROBOT does not include BUMPERS.

slijin

15-01-2013, 01:39

Could you quote the rule for this? It was my understanding that since the BUMPERS are attached to the ROBOT, and since it is the ROBOT that needed to fit within the 54" cylinder, the ROBOT does not include BUMPERS.

See Q&A #44 (https://frc-qa.usfirst.org/Question/44/does-the-54-diameter-cylinder-include-the-bumpers-or-not-r05-ambiguous):
Q. Does the 54" diameter cylinder include the bumpers or not. R05 ambiguous.

A. Yes, BUMPERS are considered part of the ROBOT for [G23]. This will be addressed in Team UPDATE - 2013-01-11.

DampRobot

15-01-2013, 02:13

See Q&A #44 (https://frc-qa.usfirst.org/Question/44/does-the-54-diameter-cylinder-include-the-bumpers-or-not-r05-ambiguous):

Thank you. This clarifies my question.

MOE

15-01-2013, 09:54

HELLOOOooooooo:D
Yep its me, is Car Nack a HE or a SHE ?????? I do know !!!! but will not tell at this time. I have seen Car Nack back in the day. TA TA some will not think that I know but thats fine but others who know me will think . Good luck to all on the 3rd level keep on track because we will ::ouch::
MOE TYE-DYE for ever!!!!! OH YEAH !!!!!!!!

Conor Ryan

15-01-2013, 10:47

Oh Great Car Nack, thank you for great insight, for perhaps we have forgotten the ways of our elders.

Some new rules will be in place for Car Nack's Corner.

#1 Only Car Nack and Son of Car Nack (and rarely a few others) will be allowed to start a thread.

#2 All replies to the thread will be screened by a monitor (probably me, but perhaps Car Nack and Son, and a few others at times) that will approve the messages before they are viewable.

#3 ALMOST ALL REPLIES WILL BE REJECTED WITHOUT RHYME OR REASON GIVEN. If the reply is funny, or clever, or significant, or in some other way strikes the fancy of the monitor, your message will be approved, but don't expect it.

#4 I will give negative reputation as often as I can at every opportunity to any user who whines or complains about this forum ;-) Seriously though, nobody wants to hear it, especially me. Life is unfair, this forum included. Where is the news in that?

tsaksa

15-01-2013, 11:39

Car Nack Predicts 13-1

There will be some Regionals where no robot will score a 30 point climb.

Car Nack has spoken.

Oh Great Car Nack. Does the future reveal to you any apparition of the robots that do make the summit? In your vision, did you see any indication as to the prevalence of the robots that were dedicated to climbing and doing little or nothing else?

Mr. Lim

15-01-2013, 20:14

Painful, but true.

To add my own twist to this...

During 1st week, I think over 50% of >10pt climb attempts will (or should) be illegal due to robots breaking the 54" cylinder rule.

Teams won't take into account that a) the bumpers are included in the cylinder, or b) the cylinder is always projected vertically from the floor.

You can't reach forward very far, or have your robot tip very much while climbing.

Well, with the 2013-01-15 Team Update and the changes to G23 and G23-1, I pretty much take back everything stated above =).

Which is GREAT!

...I even think Carnack's original prediction might need to be revisited thanks to this TU.