View Full Version : Car Nack Predicts 13-3
Car Nack
20-01-2013, 12:10
Car Nack predicts 13-3
Surprisingly there will be a least one match where all three robots on an alliance will score 30 climbing points.
Car Nack has spoken.
mjustice66
20-01-2013, 12:15
Wow :yikes: that is a bold prediction, but if it was going to happen I think you could only see it at MSC or IRI.
Andrew Lawrence
20-01-2013, 12:18
Wow :yikes: that is a bold prediction, but if it was going to happen I think you could only see it at MSC or IRI.
Or SVR...
ehfeinberg
20-01-2013, 12:22
I think Car Nack made his first prediction without realizing how many teams were going to attempt the 30 point climb. Now after seeing how many teams are going after it, there probably will be at least 1 match with 3 30 point climbs
Car Nack did not specify that EACH robot would score 30 climbing points. Therefore, I agree with Car Nack, and suggest that it will happen at most if not all regionals.
3 robots at 10 points apiece is all three robots on an alliance scoring 30 climbing points. Or 1 robot at 20 and 1 at 10...
I think this prediction is made even more viable based on the number of teams who are choosing to only climb. For the most part, these are teams with lower resources and often not very competitive bots.
But this year:
If half of the not usually competitive teams complete the challenge to climb for 30, then you may end up seeing regionals with 20+ 30 point climbers.
Another reason this game might be the best^.
LeelandS
20-01-2013, 12:55
Car Nack did not specify that EACH robot would score 30 climbing points. Therefore, I agree with Car Nack, and suggest that it will happen at most if not all regionals.
3 robots at 10 points apiece is all three robots on an alliance scoring 30 climbing points. Or 1 robot at 20 and 1 at 10...
I could be wrong, but I think the intent of the prediction was that each robot scores 30 climbing points, with all of them in the top zone of the pyramid.
I would agree with Car Nack's prediction (and certainly with your's too, Eric). I can see a large amount (but not a "vast majority") of teams aiming for the 30 point climb. Not many (i.e. few) of them will be "reliable" or "consistent", but I can easily see a match where things just line up perfectly at some regionals.
If this happens, I am fairly certain it would be during qualifications, or from a #8 seed. The top few seeded alliances just don't have enough field depth left to choose from at all events except maybe MSC, IRI, or CMP.
I think this prediction is made even more viable based on the number of teams who are choosing to only climb. For the most part, these are teams with lower resources and often not very competitive bots.
But this year:
If half of the not usually competitive teams complete the challenge to climb for 30, then you may end up seeing regionals with 20+ 30 point climbers.
Another reason this game might be the best^.
I don't think so. A team who normally makes a not very competitive bot is very likely to fail if they are trying to 30 point climb.
xSAWxBLADEx
20-01-2013, 16:58
I don't think so. A team who normally makes a not very competitive bot is very likely to fail if they are trying to 30 point climb.
I agree. A lot of people are underestimating how easy it is to pick up from the HP, shoot, and 10 point hang.
I think this prediction is made even more viable based on the number of teams who are choosing to only climb. For the most part, these are teams with lower resources and often not very competitive bots.
But this year:
If half of the not usually competitive teams complete the challenge to climb for 30, then you may end up seeing regionals with 20+ 30 point climbers.
Another reason this game might be the best^.
This assumption is counter intuitive.
Climbing for 30 points is the most difficult task of all my years in FIRST. Many low resource teams might try but the vast majority will fail. My advise to low resource teams is make a human loaded shooter. This is a brazillion times easier to do than climb for 30.
This assumption is counter intuitive.
Climbing for 30 points is the most difficult task of all my years in FIRST. Many low resource teams might try but the vast majority will fail. My advise to low resource teams is make a human loaded shooter. This is a brazillion times easier to do than climb for 30.
Alot of low performers would rather fail spectacularly than go for the low hanging fruit. For some reason they see inspiration in this.
Alot of low performers would rather fail spectacularly than go for the low hanging fruit. For some reason they see inspiration in this.
As a "low performer" (Don't worry we're only hanging on the 10). We often over estimate our capabilities, ex looking on chiefdelphi and going "Oh we can do that" and spending 4 weeks and never figuring out how to do x thing. This year we've done as much as our team is able to do, and so far so good, we have a working shooter and working robot on week 3, which is unheard of.
And low performer is quite hurtful, we prefer overly optimistic. Calling our team low performing is not that motivating.
As a "low performer" (Don't worry we're only hanging on the 10). We often over estimate our capabilities, ex looking on chiefdelphi and going "Oh we can do that" and spending 4 weeks and never figuring out how to do x thing. This year we've done as much as our team is able to do, and so far so good, we have a working shooter and working robot on week 3, which is unheard of.
And low performer is quite hurtful, we prefer overly optimistic. Calling our team low performing is not that motivating.
Well FIRST is filled with many overly optimistic teams that could do themselves (and their partners) a favor and take a step back and build robots that will actually perform. They may actually find themselves working on Saturday afternoon because of it.
Is "Car Nack Predicts" A tradition on chief delphi? Does anyone know the story behind it?
This (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23514&highlight=Car+Nack) is what the great Car Nack is. Can't help you on who he is though. I'm Looking Forward to finding out who he is, eventually. Perhaps once I ascend the ultimate echelons of FIRST.
Is "Car Nack Predicts" A tradition on chief delphi? Does anyone know the story behind it?
Yes it is. I can't say I know the story, though. Son of Car Nack might know. (Or you could ask Car Nack himself--I'd look for him at Midwest.)
Leeland, Car Nack has been known to play games with wording before. Every word is deliberately chosen. I believe one of the predictions from last year had a very similar wording, regarding 6 robots on a bridge (not specifying whether all 6 were on one bridge, 3 were on 2, or 2-2-2--one of the three could not happen, while the other two happened quite frequently.)
As such, Car Nack can be shown correct, even if only one robot makes a climb to the top. All three robots on an alliance scored 30 climb points, even though only one robot scored them. If all three robots each score 30... well, that's a lot harder to do, and I suspect there might be one. Either way, Car Nack gets this one right, pending further clarification from the camel herder of the Endless Sands.
For you young folk out there. Carnac the Magnificent (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnac_the_Magnificent) was a character of the great talk-show host Johnie Carson on the Tonight Show.
Youtube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuFSWcNe8hY)
Ian Curtis
20-01-2013, 22:22
Alot of low performers would rather fail spectacularly than go for the low hanging fruit. For some reason they see inspiration in this.
I think it is a cultural thing. People don't want to be seen as building a "boring" or simple robot. We've seen a shift towards recognizing that a significant number of teams build robots that do not score points well. Hopefully that trend will continue, and people will realize that the simple robot you were mocking on Thursday is kicking your butt on Saturday.
I don't think I've ever seen a well executed low goal scorer miss elims at the regional level, and in multiple cases I've seen them do quite well. If you showed up to any regional with a 1 point dumper with a working autonomous, 2 rounds in teleop, and a working 10 point hangar you would be a 2nd round steal.
Alpha Beta
05-02-2013, 10:23
Car Nack predicts 13-3
Surprisingly there will be a least one match where all three robots on an alliance will score 30 climbing points.
Car Nack has spoken.
Just can't see this one happening. One normal sized robot using a balanced CG approach to hoist themselves to the third level will occupy the majority of the area inside the pyramid by themselves.
http://www.ism-werobot.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/robot-234x300.jpg
That would require the other two robots to have mechanisms that do not conflict with that space while achieving their climbs. Attempts to put multiple robots in the 30 point zone also put each robot at risk of being knocked off by an alliance partner.
I can't wait to be proven wrong here, but even if it is possible I'm not sure the teams would choose to risk it in season.
MetalJacket
05-02-2013, 12:02
Just can't see this one happening. One normal sized robot using a balanced CG approach to hoist themselves to the third level will occupy the majority of the area inside the pyramid by themselves.
That would require the other two robots to have mechanisms that do not conflict with that space while achieving their climbs. Attempts to put multiple robots in the 30 point zone also put each robot at risk of being knocked off by an alliance partner.
I can see this causing issues in qualifications if you somehow end up with multiple 30-point inside climbers on the same alliance. During elims however, you could remedy this by going with an outside climber (or two, or three) and (maybe) an inside climber. My team is planning on going up the outside to avoid conflict with other robots. I'm sure we will see the 3-robot 30-point climb at some point this year.
Lil' Lavery
08-02-2013, 16:04
I can see this causing issues in qualifications if you somehow end up with multiple 30-point inside climbers on the same alliance. During elims however, you could remedy this by going with an outside climber (or two, or three) and (maybe) an inside climber. My team is planning on going up the outside to avoid conflict with other robots. I'm sure we will see the 3-robot 30-point climb at some point this year.
"Outside climbers" don't automatically rectify the issue he's talking about. His point is that if you're dangling from a horizontal bar, then a large chunk of your robot is occupying a rather limited space inside of the pyramid. This is irrelevant of whether you climbed on the inside or the outside of the pyramid.
MetalJacket
08-02-2013, 22:06
"Outside climbers" don't automatically rectify the issue he's talking about. His point is that if you're dangling from a horizontal bar, then a large chunk of your robot is occupying a rather limited space inside of the pyramid. This is irrelevant of whether you climbed on the inside or the outside of the pyramid.
Sorry about not being specific, I meant a robot that climbs up the corner or other outside part in a way that doesn't leave a large portion of the robot hanging inside.
Walter Deitzler
08-02-2013, 23:50
This (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23514&highlight=Car+Nack) is what the great Car Nack is. Can't help you on who he is though. I'm Looking Forward to finding out who he is, eventually. Perhaps once I ascend the ultimate echelons of FIRST.
Even I have not ascended the ultimate echelon of FIRST, after being on CD for WWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY too long (too many hours spent, I have only actually been looking at CD since 2011) , I have a good notion of who Car Nack is. (Reading the spotlighted posts is a great way to delve deep into CD history).
On another note, I could totally see a late divisional qualification or an Einstein, and definitely an IRI match, where this happens. MSC and MAR Championships are other great places where we can expect to see this. I do not doubt that there will be a 6 bot climb, but the question is, how late in the season will this be?
SteveGPage
09-02-2013, 00:54
I would agree with this prediction, but not in the way most have taken it - <G30> could be the cause of this! If you have an overly aggressive defender, who tries to stop the members of an alliance from climbing, it could result in each member of the alliance being awarded the 30 pts. without actually having them make the full climb.
SteveGPage
09-02-2013, 00:56
.... Silly mobile devices, it cut out "G30" from my response!
Jay O'Donnell
14-10-2013, 12:19
Just out of curiosity, did this ever happen? I know it never happened in a match, but I was hoping to have it happen in a practice match or an offseason or something.
BrendanB
14-10-2013, 12:32
Just out of curiosity, did this ever happen? I know it never happened in a match, but I was hoping to have it happen in a practice match or an offseason or something.
It hasn't happened this year and I doubt it will. The most our team participated in was a double 30 point hang with 236 in a practice match on Archimedes. Also did a double 20 with 1831 at Pine Tree (5 more seconds and it would have been a double 30) and in a match at IRI 1334 hung for 30 and we got stuck on level 2.
Calvin Hartley
14-10-2013, 12:51
It hasn't happened this year and I doubt it will. The most our team participated in was a double 30 point hang with 236 in a practice match on Archimedes. Also did a double 20 with 1831 at Pine Tree (5 more seconds and it would have been a double 30) and in a match at IRI 1334 hung for 30 and we got stuck on level 2.
I would like to remind you of a fact previously mentioned in this thread. The prestigious Car Nack did not say that each of the three robots on an alliance would achieve a level 3 climb, he said each robot would score 30 climb points. Each robot (team) on an alliance scores 30 points when just one robot gets a level 3 climb.
By my interpretaion of Car Nack's 13-3 prediction, it was correctly predicted.
Joe Ross
14-10-2013, 13:32
I would like to remind you of a fact previously mentioned in this thread. The prestigious Car Nack did not say that each of the three robots on an alliance would achieve a level 3 climb, he said each robot would score 30 climb points. Each robot (team) on an alliance scores 30 points when just one robot gets a level 3 climb.
By my interpretaion of Car Nack's 13-3 prediction, it was correctly predicted.
You don't even have to go that far, Arkansas match 82 had 90 climb points awarded to 1421, 456, and 1939. See http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1258657&postcount=42
Calvin Hartley
14-10-2013, 13:40
You don't even have to go that far, Arkansas match 82 had 90 climb points awarded to 1421, 456, and 1939. See http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1258657&postcount=42
I stand informed. Thanks!
BrendanB
14-10-2013, 14:17
I would like to remind you of a fact previously mentioned in this thread. The prestigious Car Nack did not say that each of the three robots on an alliance would achieve a level 3 climb, he said each robot would score 30 climb points. Each robot (team) on an alliance scores 30 points when just one robot gets a level 3 climb.
By my interpretaion of Car Nack's 13-3 prediction, it was correctly predicted.
There is a difference between scoring 90 climbing points and receiving 90 climbing points through fouls. If a blue robot comes along and interferes with all 3 red robots preventing them from hanging giving red 90 climbing points it is completely different then three robots hanging for 30 points which was a challenging scenario a lot of people wondered if it would happen or was even possible. One is pretty easy to accomplish (but very illegal) and the other is extremely challenging.
Myself and possibly Jay included see this as three level 3 climbs which hasn't happened yet.
There is a difference between scoring 90 climbing points and receiving 90 climbing points through fouls. If a blue robot comes along and interferes with all 3 red robots preventing them from hanging giving red 90 climbing points it is completely different then three robots hanging for 30 points which was a challenging scenario a lot of people wondered if it would happen or was even possible. One is pretty easy to accomplish (but very illegal) and the other is extremely challenging.
Myself and possibly Jay included see this as three level 3 climbs which hasn't happened yet.
Technically a robot fouling all three climbs grants each robot as scoring "all three robots on an alliance (scoring) 30 climbing points," which makes Car Nack correct on a technicality, which I believe was the intent.
On another note: I believe Car Nack was 4/4 this year.
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