2013 Championship Newton Division

[1629GaCo]

I just thought I would get this one started, since it is so much fun....
ISAAAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

[jlmcmchl]

I just thought I would get this one started, since it is so much fun....
ISAAAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

You just gave 100's of people a heart attack.

[1629GaCo]

and it was soooo much fun!!!!!!!!

[Banderoonies]

I just thought I would get this one started, since it is so much fun....
ISAAAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCC


HEART ATTACK. Don't do that to an old lady like me!

[1629GaCo]

I figure the lists will be out soon, so we might as well roll with it!!!!

[mlantry]

i got my hopes up and now there down... thanks

[Lydia Yeckley]

You just gave 100's of people a heart attack.

I can vouch for the heart attack, almost fell out of my chair as well.

[rachelholladay]

I just thought I would get this one started, since it is so much fun....
ISAAAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCC


NEWTON!

[1629GaCo]

There we go!!!

[scott]

Wow, scrambled over to check it out when I saw this thread started...well played, well played...

[2789_B_Garcia]

NEWTON! #shutemdown

[CrazyMohawk]

some big name teams in this division:)

[MARS_James]

2 of last years champs in this division this year. As well as hopefully all 3 this year:D

[Hallry]

The list is out!

25
68
79
88
93
116
122
128
131
141
155
175
180
190
191
195
217
225
296
303
341
353
492
503
537
604
771
829
1111
1208
1251
1305
1311
1410
1511
1515
1523
1538
1569
1640
1646
1671
1676
1718
1730
1739
1741
1885
1899
1985
1986
2052
2054
2080
2194
2252
2283
2386
2389
2439
2471
2612
2619
2655
2783
2789
2826
2851
2974
3130
3137
3171
3244
3280
3339
3476
3574
3756
3802
3880
3931
3997
4276
4451
4476
4487
4505
4519
4531
4539
4572
4586
4629
4652
4656
4666
4713
4828

The Pi-oneers are ready!

[pandamonium]

We should make a list of FCS cyclers climbers dumpers and 7 point atonomous robots

[Lydia Yeckley]

2252 is ecstatic to be in Newton! See you guys there!

[Tyler Olds]

FCS: 195, 2471, 225

217 as well I believe.

[Hallry]

FCS: 195, 2471, 225

and 303.

Who usually MCs and announces Newton?

[George A.]

FCS: 195, 2471, 225

Add 303 to that list

[George A.]

and 303.

Who usually MCs and announces Newton?

They usually switch it up year to year. Although i think it's usually Mark? Don't quote me on that though.

[Thad House]

They usually switch it up year to year. Although i think it's usually Mark? Don't quote me on that though.

From what i've seen in the past, Mark does whatever field 254 is on, and dave does whatever field 67 is on.

[MARS_James]

FCS: 195, 2471, 225

180

[J-Blondie]

Fondy Fire is ready to heat up the competition! Good luck everyone!!! So excited to be playing with so many friendly and awesome teams.

It also helps that I know 1114 and 2056 aren't in the same division, and neither are in our division. So hooray! And it's not Curie!

[am.wenig]

The Flying Platypi are thrilled to be in Newton this year! Can't wait to see you guys there!

[kelseysea]

STEMpunk 4531 is really excited!

We'll be seeing some familiar faces: 93 NEW Apple Corps, 2194 Fondy Fire, and 2826 WAVE Robotics. I can't wait!~

[ZoeR]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlmPfK3gRvo

FRC 2789 is ready to shut Newton down. Let's get this party started!

[bakerjohn42]

NEWTON!!!!!! Hey, 3137 Connetquot T-Birds and 353 Plainview-Old Bethpage POBots are in here with us!!!!

[theawesome1730]

Did anyone see that 1986 is in Newton? And 1730 is looking forward to this match up!

[Hallry]

Did anyone see that 1986 is in Newton?

Yes...I still don't want to believe that's true :rolleyes:

[George A.]

So does anyone want to put a paper together so we can jointly scout the division?

[jblay]

Here is a Google Doc for Pit Scouting every team in the division. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuF1A5cZW-3sdFpFME1nOGZOM2VwTDI3QXhvWnphT3c#gid=5)
It's a collaboration effort so please put in any information you have, but only if you know it's correct.
Hopefully this will make pit scouting 102 teams a little easier.
If you have any suggested changes please email or PM me.

[George A.]

Here is a Google Doc for Pit Scouting every team in the division. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuF1A5cZW-3sdFpFME1nOGZOM2VwTDI3QXhvWnphT3c#gid=5)
It's a collaboration effort so please put in any information you have, but only if you know it's correct.
Hopefully this will make pit scouting 102 teams a little easier.
If you have any suggested changes please email or PM me.

Thanks joe! Ask and he shall receive!

[Jaxom]

Yes...I still don't want to believe that's true :rolleyes:

Wait a minute! We did all right in 2010 together....

This is looking good....gonna be some good matches in Newton, and :ahh: WE'RE NOT IN CURIE AGAIN!!

[Hallry]

Wait a minute! We did all right in 2010 together...

We did great in 2010! But we're afraid of you until you pick us! ;)

[Doden]

1410 is really looking forward to it :) Also, add us to the list of FCS. We'll also help out with the google doc as soon as we get access.

[trilogy2826]

Here is a Google Doc for Pit Scouting every team in the division. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuF1A5cZW-3sdFpFME1nOGZOM2VwTDI3QXhvWnphT3c#gid=5)


Joe, I am getting an access denied. Any way this is not public like the Archimedes doc?

[EricLeifermann]

Joe, I am getting an access denied. Any way this is not public like the Archimedes doc?

I got in and added, feel free to edit and put what our actual drive speed is, I know were fast but I can't remember what were geared for.

[jblay]

Joe, I am getting an access denied. Any way this is not public like the Archimedes doc?

I just made a bobo at first not making stuff public, should be good now.

[kelseysea]

Here is a Google Doc for Pit Scouting every team in the division. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuF1A5cZW-3sdFpFME1nOGZOM2VwTDI3QXhvWnphT3c#gid=5)
It's a collaboration effort so please put in any information you have, but only if you know it's correct.
Hopefully this will make pit scouting 102 teams a little easier.
If you have any suggested changes please email or PM me.
This is absolutely glorious.

[CrazyMohawk]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlmPfK3gRvo

FRC 2789 is ready to shut Newton down. Let's get this party started!

$@#$@#$@#$@# i like you guys:D

[bakerjohn42]

Can you put in a DPR column?

[class1234567]

Were with 1986 agian. Hope we get to play a match since we didnt see each other during regional play

[Vinnie2783]

The list is out!



The Pi-oneers are ready!
These are just the teams in the Newton Division? How did you get this info?

[Grim Tuesday]

I believe Shaniqua has emceed Newton for the last few years.

[Teched3]

Go to the FIRST site, FRC, Events, then Championship, and then teams attending. The complete list of teams will pop up. Dig over Divisions column label, and the list will regenerate into Divisions, with teams listed in numerical order.

[Link07]

I believe Shaniqua has emceed Newton for the last few years.

She definitely did last year. I don't know much about previous years but thats probably a safe bet.

[CASN8R]

The list is out!



The Pi-oneers are ready!
We are ready to compete with some legendary teams. NEWTON!!!!!!!!

[Jared Russell]

341 (with our new and improved shooter, shoulder joint, and 7-disc and midfield autonomous modes) is locked and loaded and ready to play on Newton :cool:

[Tyler Olds]

2826 Wave Robotics ready for glory!

Some new improvements for championships:

5 Disc from the center is down from both the side and center.
10 point climber has been added.
Wider Intake for Auto and Tele-Op.
New alignment device for the feeder station to increase disk scoring possibilities.

After two division finalists the last two years, we are very hungry for Einstein. I look forward to seeing old friends and meeting new ones!

[Jared Russell]

After two division finalists the last two years, we are very hungry for Einstein. I look forward to seeing old friends and meeting new ones!

The hunger that comes after being eliminated in the division finals is NOT TO BE UNDERESTIMATED!

[Jay1986]

Were with 1986 agian. Hope we get to play a match since we didnt see each other during regional play

I agree, I really love your team and can't wait to see you again!

[Banderoonies]

Missing pictures. Please post if you have them :)
116
155
190
303
829
1251
1676
2389
2783
3171
3280
3756
3802
4666
4713

[MARS_James]

Missing pictures. Please post if you have them :)

1251


https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/164279_518406768198699_1461891839_n.jpg

1251 tech tigers

[Banderoonies]

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/164279_518406768198699_1461891839_n.jpg

1251 tech tigers

Thank you!!!!!!

[Vikingtech2054]

We are defiantly ready, we redesigned our shooter that was defiantly our biggest weakness at MSC. Hopefully it will work well as we want to. We were close to Einstein in 2011 and lost to the reining world champions last year on Galileo, hopefully we can get there.

[bitty]

Its great to be on the Newton field this year. Can't wait to see all these great teams all on one field!!!:)

[JohnFogarty]

Look out for 4451. You should already know their strategy.
#SouthCarolinaStandUp

[Kageshini]

3997's new feeding mechanism is ready to compete with some of the big names, and hopefully make a name for ourselves!
100% 3 point autonomous around 4-6 trips of 4 with new feeder and 10 point hang, we're ready!

[2789_B_Garcia]

3997's new feeding mechanism is ready to compete with some of the big names, and hopefully make a name for ourselves!
100% 3 point autonomous around 4-6 trips of 4 with new feeder and 10 point hang, we're ready!

Y'all definitely did well at Alamo, I can't wait to see your improvements! 4063 (our alliance partners from both Alamo and Hub City) are helping us get a shooter going so that we can replace our dumper and put up 18 pts in autonomous before we go play defense...can't wait for champs!

Fun Fact: We played against 3997 in the Finals at Alamo, and we played against 1986 and 3931 in the finals at Hub City...and now we'll be seeing them on Newton!

[Steve Kaneb]

Missing pictures. Please post if you have them :)
190


Ack, didn't notice we didn't have a picture out there.
http://i.imgur.com/BgEhsvW.jpg

[hunterteam3476]

We did great in 2010! But we're afraid of you until you pick us! ;)

now wait second they need to seen the California team 3476 before picking anybody hahahahah :yikes:

[yarden.saa]

3339 will shoot some discs (new shooter) and will climb the pyramid to level 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNJ3MIAxu30

[Banderoonies]

Missing pictures. Please post if you have them :)
116 thanks
155
190 thanks
303
829
1251 thanks
1676 thanks
2389
2783
3171 thanks
3280
3756
3802
4666
4713

still need some pictures. Please share with everyone if you have them from prior regionals :) Thanks!

[bakerjohn42]

still need some pictures. Please share with everyone if you have them from prior regionals :) Thanks!

3171:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/95018326@N05/8658391621/

[MARS_James]

1676:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/team1676/sets/72157633208652527/

Take your pic :rolleyes:

[Hallry]

1676:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/team1676/sets/72157633208652527/

Take your pic :rolleyes:

Darn, I've been keeping a close eye on this thread and didn't even notice that our picture was missing. :yikes:

I'll post the best picture I have for you when I get home from school today (our school laptops block flickr, where we store all of our photos on....yeah, seems a little inconvenient to me too :rolleyes:).

[Banderoonies]

1676:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/team1676/sets/72157633208652527/

Take your pic :rolleyes:

Thank you very much!

[JesseK]

We're totally excited for Newton! We've put our best hacker on siphoning off data from websites, tabulating it, and putting it in a human-readable format. :cool: Well, he hasn't turned hacker yet -- but the way he flies around the Vision code, hooks up sockets manually, & creates his own python scripts, he's definitely on that path...

I don't know if we have any stills, other than a CAD I put up on my private facebook page in January -- but I did update our line in the google scouting doc with a video from Chesapeake. It'll mostly look the same, yet we've fixed the disc jamming.

[sabruce01]

Team 2389 is pumped up about Newton!!! Happy to see 1986 again! Good luck everyone

[AlexC]

Some data that i thought would be interesting was how many district/regional wins each team had along with whether they were a team captain, first pick, or second.

I made an excel file with this data paired with the data currently in the pit scouting file. This was done late last night and rather rushed so if anything is wrong please let me know.

If someone wants to add this to the current google doc that would be much appreciated.

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2818

[BrennanB]

Team 4476 is exited to be in Newton! After our success in GTR East with RAS, A Dean's list finalist, and semi-finalists with 3985 and 4718 (two rookies and a second year team) we are really pumped to be heading off to worlds! I have no doubt that our team will be inspired by all the good teams that will be competing with us.

For those interested in seeing our robot in action, here is a link (http://watchfirstnow.com/archive3.php?id=61428806).

See you on the field!

[jspatz1]

Team 2389 is pumped up about Newton!!! Happy to see 1986 again! Good luck everyone

Sorry about those holes in your climbing hooks. Got a new batch of wheels? No fair using that new blocker to block us, or we'll take our stuff back.:D

[2789_B_Garcia]

Some data that i thought would be interesting was how many district/regional wins each team had along with whether they were a team captain, first pick, or second.

I made an excel file with this data paired with the data currently in the pit scouting file. This was done late last night and rather rushed so if anything is wrong please let me know.

If someone wants to add this to the current google doc that would be much appreciated.

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2818

Wow! What a great resource, thanks! I'd love to add our info, can you post the link to the Google Doc?

[Hallry]

Wow! What a great resource, thanks! I'd love to add our info, can you post the link to the Google Doc?

I added all of the info in the paper to the Google Doc, so you can just edit it on there. I also added a '2013 Record' column to input wins-losses-ties for teams.

[AlexC]

Wow! What a great resource, thanks! I'd love to add our info, can you post the link to the Google Doc?

certainly, the doc is by 694. i'll be updating the data in it to my excel file periodically.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuF1A5cZW-3sdFpFME1nOGZOM2VwTDI3QXhvWnphT3c#gid=5

[EricLeifermann]

Missing pictures. Please post if you have them :)
116
155
190
303
829
1251
1676
2389
2783
3171
3280
3756
3802
4666
4713

Do you have a link to the rest of the pictures?

[Banderoonies]

Do you have a link to the rest of the pictures?

I got all the other pictures by exporting the FRC tracker application pictures to an email.

It is very easy to do. The list I have above is all the robots that did not have pictures on the tracker already.
Give me your email and I will forward you the email I got from the tracker....it's a large email though.

[silverD]

KnightKrawler is excited to be making its first appearance at the Championship. There will be a few familiar faces and so many new friends to be made! Good luck and we'll see you soon.

[sabruce01]

2389 posted a pic in previous post. And Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers.....:p

[Jibsy]

This is awesome! I need to track down a photo of our robot...

I think there should also be a max height column, especially for those of us who can expand from <30" to 64"!

[EricLeifermann]

Links to pictures have been added to the google doc

[Banderoonies]

This is awesome! I need to track down a photo of our robot...

I think there should also be a max height column, especially for those of us who can expand from <30" to 64"!


Hope you can find a photo :) thanks for looking and posting if you find one :)

[Teamcodeorange]

Code Orange is very excited to be in the Newton division!

Last night we put together a robot reveal video for all the scouters. (Better late than never :D )

http://youtu.be/ZtiuyRPAeiE

[EricLeifermann]

There is a bad link for 1741 picture on the google doc it takes you to a pic of 1781...

EDIT: IGNORE THIS IM DUMB

[nuggetsyl]

I am looking foward to champs. 25 is going back to its roots and will be playing more D on teams and scoring points our parnter can't score/ focus on. Auto climb and dump all the way.

[Banderoonies]

I got some screen shots of 3280, 829 and 3802. Not great resolution but all I could find.

[EricLeifermann]

Would be nice if there was a shot/dump colored discs section in the google doc

[its da PAT!!!]

Here a pictures of the Digital Goats from Smoky Mt. We have changed our shooter a little. It now shoots faster and farther.

[Hallry]

Welcome, Team 2352, as the 100th team to the 2013 Newton Division!

[Clayton E]

Thanks, we just got the invite today.

[seg9585]

Mentor of Team 4276 here, looking forward to meeting you all in Newton Division!
This will be my first time attending Championship (6th year mentoring + 2 years as student), really excited for next week!

With thousands of teams here, may end up being robot overload...

[Hallry]

With thousands of teams here, may end up being robot overload...

Hundreds, not thousands*

*Well, of FRC teams at least...if you count FLL and FTC...then yeah, thousands ;)

[seg9585]

Hundreds, not thousands*

*Well, of FRC teams at least...if you count FLL and FTC...then yeah, thousands ;)

Yes, I was referring to the FTC and FLL teams as well :]
Aware there are *only* 400 FRC teams.

[Koko Ed]

FYI: We have changed our robot from an interior corner hanger to a passive hanger that shoots while hanging. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGomuZeN59U)
This is by the way the practice bot. The actual bot will be changed on Wednesday.

[Chris Deyoe]

Newton, here we (Team 2252) come. I cannot wait to see all the great robots next week. I've been watching (online) them all all season, now it will be live.

[George1902]

I'm so excited SPAM is on Newton. I'm looking forward to seeing in person all these robots I'm pre-scouting.

Our robot looks a little different than it did in our reveal video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrhiPnBz-iI). Our floor pick-up was removed, and our human loading was improved. We've refined our full-court shooting both in accuracy and speed. We can empty the alliance station of discs in under 50 seconds with no loss of accuracy. We're comfortable cycling to the pyramid or spotting up and shooting from anywhere else on the court.

I'm impressed with the quality of robots I see in the Newton field (especially you Michiganders... y'all are incredible). I disagree with the supposed "weakness" of Newton this year. This was said about Galileo last year, but Gali was able to put together some impressive alliances because of depth. I expect the same from Newton this year.

Best of luck, everyone!

[ThunderChief]

We are in the Newton Division along with our friends, the Holy Cows, team 1538.
Code Orange (from Orange County, California), FRC Team 3476, presents "Highlights" of our robot from our 2013 season at this YouTube link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fI0Oy8AiQU

We shoot our 3 starting discs into the 6 point goal in Autonomous. Then we can pick up 4 discs from the floor and shoot them also. Our 2-speed gear box allows us to both quickly move around and to push others when needed. Our 4 powerful shooter motors and fast aiming setup allow us to score discs from many positions. Watch this video and see how fast our human loader is and how we suck discs off the floor. We have a fast pre- or post-buzzer 10 point pneumatic hanger.
Our alliances in our second regional (Inland Empire) scored some of the highest match points in the country: 125, 147, 149, 153, 169.

We have a different video in the Robot Showcase thread at:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=116208

See you in St. Louis!!!

[HayWire1569]

Team 1569 (Haywire) is incredibly excited to be in Newton this year!!! Can't wait to go out there and show everyone what we have, and to see all the other incredible robots :D
Less than five days remaining!!!

[Hallry]

Missing pictures. Please post if you have them :)
1676


Here ya go! http://www.flickr.com/photos/team1676/8637821020/in/photostream

[connor.worley]

1538 is ready for Newton. Can't wait to play against some of the teams on this field.

[Banderoonies]

1538 is ready for Newton. Can't wait to play against some of the teams on this field.

195 is excited as well. Really hoping to play a match WITH the Holy Cows at some point :)

Your robot is awesome! Congrats on a job well done!

[IndySam]

Ready is anybody ever ready for such a great event?

The Digital Goats (team 829) are excited to be playing on Newton with such great teams.

[pntbll1313]

I've been spending a lot of time pre-scouting this division and I can't wait to see everyone in person at Champs! Team 2052 KnightKrawler is super excited for our first ever appearance. Make sure to stop by our pit and say hi. Three days until matches start, SO EXCITED!
Take a peak at what our bot looks like here: KnightKrawler Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEDH5Dw_UHE)

[JesseK]

We've spent the last week re-working our hopper. We've put roughly 400 discs through it, tweaking it and figuring out what we'd be best at. It only jammed twice early on in, even with violent shake tests to simulate on-field impacts. As of Saturday, our pyramid shots are 100% consistent in under 1.5 seconds. We can now also do some full-court shooting, but we'll have to see which works best timing-wise. You know, maximize expected value per time and all.

I seriously hope we're now able to play the game the way its meant to be played, and hope to give our fellow Newtonians a good showing! Our scouting indicates that Newton may be one of the more dynamic divisions strategy-wise. Good luck to all!

[MechEng83]

Using the Max OPR Data and the preliminary match schedule that FIRST has published, I did a little prediction spreadsheet.

If a match is less than 10 pts in differential, I have highlighted the predicted scores in yellow. Otherwise, the winning alliance score is highlighted.

[Joe Ross]

I used the preliminary match schedules to simulate the matches using OPR and then calculate the standings. I used each team's best OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating their contribution to a match. I also used each team's world Auto, Teleop, and Climb OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating the rest of the standings.

Everything appears to match MechEng83's data.

Rank Team Wins Losses Ties Matches QP AP TP CP
1 1741 8 0 0 8 16 297 463 171
2 1538 8 0 0 8 16 280 422 148
3 2054 7 1 0 8 14 316 452 159
4 1985 7 1 0 8 14 260 377 181
5 128 7 1 0 8 14 259 508 137
6 1676 7 1 0 8 14 255 476 151
7 180 7 1 0 8 14 243 438 169
8 2439 7 1 0 8 14 214 440 130
9 2252 7 1 0 8 14 207 400 155
10 195 7 1 0 8 14 203 419 165
11 829 7 1 0 8 14 198 388 137
12 2826 6 2 0 8 12 272 481 115
13 68 6 2 0 8 12 258 450 104
14 3997 6 2 0 8 12 254 337 176
15 2612 6 2 0 8 12 252 387 211
16 225 6 2 0 8 12 251 599 136
17 3931 6 2 0 8 12 231 419 148
18 1640 6 2 0 8 12 222 451 91
19 131 6 2 0 8 12 214 412 162
20 1569 6 2 0 8 12 209 430 108
21 1730 6 2 0 8 12 199 284 153
22 79 6 2 0 8 12 192 315 155
23 1986 5 3 0 8 10 340 427 183
24 3130 5 3 0 8 10 297 323 190
25 1718 5 3 0 8 10 242 499 159
26 175 5 3 0 8 10 234 316 205
27 3137 5 3 0 8 10 222 291 156
28 3802 5 3 0 8 10 216 440 150
29 217 5 3 0 8 10 215 460 120
30 2471 5 3 0 8 10 214 393 154
31 341 5 3 0 8 10 210 335 167
32 3880 5 3 0 8 10 205 415 90
33 2783 5 3 0 8 10 204 365 87
34 1208 5 3 0 8 10 198 339 172
35 2052 5 3 0 8 10 196 393 143
36 2389 5 3 0 8 10 190 170 120
37 1646 5 3 0 8 10 188 257 98
38 4476 5 3 0 8 10 185 345 148
39 303 5 3 0 8 10 183 481 123
40 4656 5 3 0 8 10 173 285 159
41 1311 5 3 0 8 10 166 256 180
42 3339 5 3 0 8 10 162 336 226
43 2194 4 4 0 8 8 239 281 117
44 141 4 4 0 8 8 219 219 157
45 4539 4 4 0 8 8 214 265 150
46 4505 4 4 0 8 8 205 229 152
47 4276 4 4 0 8 8 188 314 115
48 3244 4 4 0 8 8 181 263 160
49 1511 4 4 0 8 8 176 337 145
50 2851 4 4 0 8 8 175 214 170
51 2974 4 4 0 8 8 173 438 161
52 25 4 4 0 8 8 172 288 170
53 155 4 4 0 8 8 161 213 180
54 3756 4 4 0 8 8 147 241 120
55 4487 4 4 0 8 8 143 267 139
56 1523 4 4 0 8 8 125 372 169
57 4451 4 4 0 8 8 122 267 303
58 190 4 4 0 8 8 114 229 207
59 3476 3 5 0 8 6 228 407 105
60 1671 3 5 0 8 6 228 309 98
61 2619 3 5 0 8 6 215 399 145
62 1781 3 5 0 8 6 213 270 99
63 492 3 5 0 8 6 200 229 196
64 503 3 5 0 8 6 197 279 152
65 3280 3 5 0 8 6 194 246 62
66 2283 3 5 0 8 6 192 265 94
67 1305 3 5 0 8 6 191 233 153
68 4629 3 5 0 8 6 188 289 97
69 4586 3 5 0 8 6 188 244 112
70 1899 3 5 0 8 6 186 395 137
71 191 3 5 0 8 6 186 381 109
72 3574 3 5 0 8 6 170 249 93
73 1885 3 5 0 8 6 157 276 121
74 3171 3 5 0 8 6 151 228 170
75 93 3 5 0 8 6 150 244 108
76 1410 3 5 0 8 6 148 338 80
77 1111 3 5 0 8 6 115 227 81
78 4519 2 6 0 8 4 201 294 150
79 2352 2 6 0 8 4 165 219 94
80 88 2 6 0 8 4 154 272 133
81 1515 2 6 0 8 4 140 248 95
82 771 2 6 0 8 4 130 328 141
83 1251 2 6 0 8 4 128 316 113
84 537 2 6 0 8 4 119 239 101
85 353 2 6 0 8 4 108 294 139
86 2080 2 6 0 8 4 106 225 120
87 2789 2 6 0 8 4 102 203 116
88 2655 2 6 0 8 4 69 242 218
89 4713 2 6 0 8 4 65 179 61
90 122 1 7 0 8 2 190 173 101
91 296 1 7 0 8 2 161 204 125
92 116 1 7 0 8 2 149 223 83
93 1739 1 7 0 8 2 119 176 92
94 604 1 7 0 8 2 110 203 123
95 4828 1 7 0 8 2 108 313 186
96 4531 1 7 0 8 2 103 184 142
97 4666 1 7 0 8 2 89 264 97
98 2386 1 7 0 8 2 80 189 98
99 4652 1 7 0 8 2 61 172 68
100 4572 0 8 0 8 0 96 141 120


Here are the results from the individual matches


Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScore
1 4828 1511 4666 341 3756 180 40 130
2 191 1640 2386 2252 296 195 98 120
3 1515 3171 175 1741 2439 1538 72 152
4 2194 1781 492 155 93 2052 73 99
5 3997 1739 116 4451 2655 2612 92 110
6 3574 2789 537 3880 1986 2826 66 165
7 3476 3280 217 4519 503 4476 110 107
8 4713 1523 604 1671 2389 68 75 78
9 3802 1410 4276 1718 4656 2974 108 117
10 1251 4586 141 1305 3339 1730 76 89
11 1985 2054 829 3137 25 122 148 72
12 2851 1311 4539 4572 2352 3244 78 46
13 1885 353 4531 2471 2283 1208 76 108
14 1569 190 303 1111 4652 79 105 63
15 4487 4629 1646 2080 4505 771 42 60
16 3931 3130 131 1899 2619 88 129 106
17 1676 225 4666 128 2783 1781 136 126
18 1730 4276 2439 503 604 492 90 84
19 1640 2389 1986 2052 341 1305 133 128
20 3171 2974 191 3997 1311 4476 81 90
21 4828 3339 4656 2352 3280 829 63 95
22 4531 4572 190 3802 1739 2789 26 69
23 1523 4451 2386 180 771 1885 129 114
24 2471 1646 1410 1511 25 2612 112 100
25 122 88 303 3756 537 2851 70 91
26 4505 1718 3574 217 2252 3244 105 109
27 1111 1251 225 1538 3137 155 104 125
28 4652 93 116 3880 68 2619 61 130
29 141 79 195 2655 353 2080 154 53
30 1671 2194 1208 175 128 3130 91 132
31 1515 4713 1676 1985 1899 1569 83 118
32 131 2783 4629 3476 2283 4586 91 65
33 2826 296 4487 4539 3931 2054 80 127
34 1741 3997 25 4519 4572 1718 117 85
35 4505 3137 503 2974 2386 537 110 84
36 492 771 191 4652 2352 341 69 74
37 2789 1311 2439 1646 122 1305 87 51
38 1111 116 604 829 2471 88 74 108
39 4276 1885 2252 1515 3280 1739 102 51
40 180 4656 3244 141 93 190 99 81
41 1410 2619 2080 1986 4586 1676 112 154
42 217 195 1511 303 128 3931 120 146
43 2194 4539 1538 2283 4451 4828 96 74
44 3574 3171 1781 1640 353 131 69 124
45 2655 2389 155 1208 1985 4487 40 112
46 1671 4476 1899 296 1730 2851 88 76
47 2783 2826 68 2052 4519 4531 132 103
48 3802 225 1523 2054 3130 4629 163 112
49 3756 175 79 4713 3880 1251 121 57
50 3339 1741 2612 3476 4666 1569 129 92
51 1739 2283 2386 2080 303 829 39 106
52 2252 1305 88 4656 353 3137 99 85
53 155 4652 3244 3997 128 2439 45 132
54 3931 1646 604 537 1538 1885 74 122
55 122 4572 503 2194 2389 3574 46 47
56 2974 131 116 225 4539 217 132 124
57 191 93 1671 79 4487 2783 69 102
58 1985 1730 2612 3130 1781 3280 122 91
59 4519 190 195 2851 4713 4276 116 53
60 2352 3756 4629 3171 1676 4531 74 87
61 1410 3880 1569 1311 2052 4828 123 104
62 1208 341 25 68 1515 4586 122 81
63 141 4505 2619 1523 4666 2789 111 84
64 180 1718 175 3339 296 1986 162 116
65 492 4451 1899 2054 1511 1741 110 135
66 771 1640 4476 3802 2471 1251 88 109
67 1111 2826 2439 3476 2655 2974 101 95
68 2851 2194 1739 4656 1985 3171 65 66
69 3931 4276 2052 2386 3756 4652 120 53
70 604 303 353 191 3244 1410 94 103
71 131 1885 829 4666 4487 190 127 47
72 3339 1208 503 195 1676 93 128 143
73 2783 3280 3880 1523 3997 1646 85 109
74 79 296 2283 1305 1511 1515 65 70
75 2789 3476 68 225 771 1718 121 146
76 4713 141 128 4531 492 3137 97 67
77 2655 2252 341 1899 537 4572 93 61
78 2389 3130 180 4539 2471 2080 104 80
79 4629 4519 122 1640 1111 1730 46 88
80 4451 4586 175 88 3574 1569 99 76
81 1741 3802 1781 2619 4828 2826 125 112
82 1671 1986 155 2054 217 1311 125 139
83 25 1538 4476 2352 116 4505 118 102
84 1251 128 2052 2612 604 3171 137 82
85 1305 3476 3244 829 2194 1899 102 104
86 4656 2783 341 4713 2080 296 89 25
87 3137 79 3280 4666 1410 771 104 75
88 4539 4519 88 3880 3339 191 66 93
89 4652 537 1208 1741 225 1640 80 161
90 1730 195 2471 3574 1523 2974 141 118
91 492 1986 3130 25 2655 2386 133 58
92 503 2283 2352 3931 3802 1569 90 117
93 1676 217 4828 190 3997 175 125 99
94 1511 1538 68 141 122 4487 130 69
95 4476 2612 2054 2789 2389 93 148 45
96 2619 4531 4276 1985 303 180 77 145
97 155 4451 2851 131 1646 2252 109 112
98 4572 1885 1251 2439 1781 4629 50 85
99 1311 4505 1111 4586 1739 353 65 50
100 3756 116 1515 1718 2826 1671 95 128
101 4666 1899 2080 3574 1208 3997 66 112
102 771 2783 4828 141 3171 503 70 102
103 4713 2052 829 1730 2789 4539 97 66
104 217 3802 191 2612 122 180 112 120
105 3280 88 296 2389 492 1538 46 88
106 2619 2974 190 2252 1511 604 103 82
107 3931 4505 225 4519 175 4656 134 93
108 1646 1781 4586 4652 4531 1671 60 33
109 1985 4572 131 3756 1523 3339 80 115
110 3880 128 2054 1111 2352 1885 160 82
111 1311 303 93 3476 1515 1640 92 115
112 2851 2283 1741 1251 1410 2655 91 82
113 2826 3130 1676 4476 3244 1739 148 56
114 4451 2471 341 2439 1718 79 135 148
115 537 25 1305 155 4629 195 88 95
116 68 1569 3137 2194 1986 4276 125 119
117 4487 353 3339 116 2386 4713 75 62
118 190 1208 4539 122 4505 1781 90 67
119 2052 3997 1511 1671 131 3802 110 107
120 492 1646 4656 4572 1111 4666 49 10
121 3476 175 1985 1410 1885 4652 128 86
122 2471 3880 3171 225 303 2252 93 162
123 1739 296 3756 604 3574 155 53 64
124 1718 4629 1899 191 1538 503 112 145
125 3244 4519 1986 2974 1251 1515 133 83
126 537 2080 4531 93 4451 1730 55 97
127 353 829 3931 68 1676 2612 114 169
128 2789 2352 88 2783 2194 1741 73 100
129 2386 2389 4586 2851 79 2826 38 133
130 2439 2619 771 25 1569 217 102 109
131 4487 195 3137 341 3130 1311 120 101
132 2655 4828 1523 128 4476 4276 85 101
133 2283 1640 2054 141 3280 116 119 104
134 180 2974 4652 1305 4505 492 100 74

4 matches are predicted to be over 270 combined
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScore
48 3802 225 1523 2054 3130 4629 163 112
64 180 1718 175 3339 296 1986 162 116
72 3339 1208 503 195 1676 93 128 143
114 4451 2471 341 2439 1718 79 135 148
127 353 829 3931 68 1676 2612 114 169


Here are the highest scoring close matches

Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScore
17 1676 225 4666 128 2783 1781 136 126
19 1640 2389 1986 2052 341 1305 133 128
56 2974 131 116 225 4539 217 132 124
116 68 1569 3137 2194 1986 4276 125 119
104 217 3802 191 2612 122 180 112 120
9 3802 1410 4276 1718 4656 2974 108 117
97 155 4451 2851 131 1646 2252 109 112



Don't like the predictions? Go out and prove them wrong :)

[AlexC]

Using the Max OPR Data and the preliminary match schedule that FIRST has published, I did a little prediction spreadsheet.

If a match is less than 10 pts in differential, I have highlighted the predicted scores in yellow. Otherwise, the winning alliance score is highlighted.

Excellent data, thank you!

[nuggetsyl]

Wait the match lists came out?

[jee7s]

I'm surprised Shaun, you're usually more on top of this...

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=116335

[Hallry]

Wait the match lists came out?

PRELIMINARY: http://www.usfirst.org/sites/default/files/uploadedFiles/Robotics_Programs/FRC/Events/2013/Newton_qual_prelim.pdf

It was released in today's first FRC Blog post: http://www.usfirst.org/roboticsprograms/frc/blog-share-your-first-story-and-preliminary-championship-match-schedules

[Alpha Beta]

Rank Team Wins Losses Ties Matches QP AP TP CP

23 1986 5 3 0 8 10 340 427 183




Don't like the predictions? Go out and prove them wrong :)

You play the hand your dealt. ::ouch::
At least I'm predicted to lead the Division in Autonomous. :cool: If that prediction holds true then every victory we steal moves us to the head of the next win/loss category. Might make some noise here yet. ;)

[nuggetsyl]

I'm surprised Shaun, you're usually more on top of this...

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=116335

Its called burried at work :) . I am happy to have a few days to see who and how I am going to D up some of these teams. I have an Idea that will have teams slapping their heads why did I not think of that.

[dlavery]

I used the preliminary match schedules to simulate the matches using OPR and then calculate the standings. I used each team's best OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating their contribution to a match. I also used each team's world Auto, Teleop, and Climb OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating the rest of the standings.

Everything appears to match MechEng83's data.

Joe -
Are you sure you used the highest OPR for each team, and not just the first? I know that in the case of Team 116, your table is showing the lower OPR of our two events.

-dave


.

[JesseK]

Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).

It would be interesting for each team to do this on an internal basis so they can see how their efforts leading up to champs may potentially change the outcomes.

[MechEng83]

Joe -
Are you sure you used the highest OPR for each team, and not just the first? I know that in the case of Team 116, your table is showing the lower OPR of our two events.

-dave


.

Dave,

While I can't speak specifically to Joe's calculations, they match up with mine. Even using MaxOPR of 42.6 (which I see for 116 was a vast improvement from your first regional) the predicted win-loss is 1-7. With so few matches and such a large field of teams, I think that luck in schedule will be more of a factor than performance in seeding.

[MechEng83]

Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).

It would be interesting for each team to do this on an internal basis so they can see how their efforts leading up to champs may potentially change the outcomes.

Are you suggesting generating a series of random match schedules and then doing the seeding predictions based on that? I get the feeling that this will end up collapsing to just the OPR rank list with enough runs.

Or, are you suggesting using some statistical variation on the OPR values of each team using the current schedule? If so, what variation coefficients would you use? I think this might be a very interesting simulation, but I'm not sure what the valid variation would be. I might need to dig further into the OPR calculations to find some sort of confidence interval.

[MikeE]

Are you suggesting generating a series of random match schedules and then doing the seeding predictions based on that? I get the feeling that this will end up collapsing to just the OPR rank list with enough runs.

Or, are you suggesting using some statistical variation on the OPR values of each team using the current schedule? If so, what variation coefficients would you use? I think this might be a very interesting simulation, but I'm not sure what the valid variation would be. I might need to dig further into the OPR calculations to find some sort of confidence interval.

I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.

Your other interpretation is more interesting. With some small tweaks the OPR calculation can also be used to generate mean/variance parameters for a maximum likelihood estimate of each team's performance. That's a better basis for real Monte-Carlo simulation, but we'd still need to simulate over a large number of potential schedules.

[JesseK]

I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.

Correct; given a specific schedule (such as the preliminary one or the one we'll receive Wed/Thurs), the question is more about the point spread across the matches a given team (e.g. 1885) is in and the potential to change the predicted outcome. If a team knows their own potential increase (i.e. we know we can now hit 4 cycles in a match instead of 1-2) due to pre-champ tweaking, then it can be used as motivation team-wide for each student to perform better. Or it can be used to manage expectations if a team hasn't done anything to improve their bot.

Such simulations can also be used as motivation in the decision making process -- do we keep practicing what we're doing, or do we try a different approach for this match? How would that decision change if we have 3 hours of consecutive pit time prior to that large-spread match vs. if we only have 30 minutes? If the point spread is large, with little predicted chance for us to win, we may take more risks for those matches.

Simulations may be more accurate for prediction than bean-count scouting early on in a schedule. Yet once we've hit everyone's 3rd or 4th match, I'd much rather have the disc-by-disc replay than a regression stat with few data points. Behavioral analysis also helps.

[Tom Line]

I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.

Your other interpretation is more interesting. With some small tweaks the OPR calculation can also be used to generate mean/variance parameters for a maximum likelihood estimate of each team's performance. That's a better basis for real Monte-Carlo simulation, but we'd still need to simulate over a large number of potential schedules.

When you only play 8 matches, schedule is king in determining placement. Our schedule has us placed 25 in the field, and we play against 1986, 341 and 1538 but never play with them. That said, we play with some top-notch teams too, and the our final record is up to how we play: 3 of the matches are within 10 points of OPR, which makes them too close to call.

It's going to be exciting!

Would simulating with a Monte-Carlo over a large number of schedules be nearly identical to relying on OPR for those same schedules?

[Joe Ross]

Are you sure you used the highest OPR for each team, and not just the first? I know that in the case of Team 116, your table is showing the lower OPR of our two events.


I used 42.6, from Washington DC, which puts 116 at 31st in the division. The OPR from North Carolina was 1.1. Unfortunately, it appears that 116 has a very tough schedule which is the reason for the 1-7 finish. Those values are for calculating who will win a match.

For the values used in the calculating the Auto, Teleop, and Climb in the rankings, I used Ed Law's world ranking, because that was the only convenient place to get those values. Because of 116's performance in North Carolina, those values are significantly lower then the best OPR. 116's best OPR is comprised of 11.2 Auto 8.8 Climb 23.1 Teleop. Their World OPR is 12.3 Auto, 7 climb, and 3 Teleop. Since Teleop was where the major discrepancy is, and it is the last tiebreaker, there is little difference in 116's ranking whether best or world OPRs are used, although it could affect other teams.

If someone had a convenient list of best OPR event broken out by Auto, Climb, and Teleop, I would have used that.

[Joe Ross]

I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.

You are correct that the schedule has huge impact on ranking. Running 200 match schedules last year (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1160745&postcount=60) showed a standard deviation of number of wins for an average team being around 3.5. Out of 9 matches, that is huge.

[MikeE]

Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).


OK, so I bit and generated 10 different Newton schedules using an evaluation version of the scheduling software (http://www.idleloop.com/matchmaker/).
Match scores are based on Ed Law's Max OPR data for each team and Ether's world Auto/Climb/Teleop OPR data (linearly scaled to match Ed's Max OPR values).
This gives 10 sets of qualification rankings, one for each of the simulated schedules.

Here's a summary of each team's average, best, worst and "in top 8" rankings across those 10 schedules:


Team Rank Best Worst Top8?
25 50.2 35 74 0
68 24.7 2 43 1
79 35.1 18 63 0
88 70.2 36 96 0
93 57.5 25 81 0
116 34.8 15 62 0
122 90.4 83 100 0
128 30.2 8 51 1
131 35.8 12 71 0
141 26.8 11 55 0
155 61.0 24 91 0
175 36.8 1 77 1
180 14.4 1 33 5
190 75.0 54 92 0
191 55.3 19 93 0
195 18.8 2 47 3
217 37.9 2 69 1
225 12.3 2 30 5
296 82.0 68 98 0
303 39.3 7 69 1
341 36.3 3 100 2
353 67.9 30 91 0
492 68.0 38 95 0
503 23.0 8 60 1
537 55.6 28 71 0
604 80.7 22 96 0
771 77.5 39 97 0
829 56.1 33 85 0
1111 83.6 70 98 0
1208 42.6 5 69 1
1251 73.5 40 98 0
1305 36.9 16 80 0
1311 68.2 19 96 0
1410 30.9 1 66 1
1511 75.7 54 98 0
1515 63.7 35 94 0
1523 25.2 3 49 2
1538 8.2 2 24 6
1569 38.5 7 81 1
1640 40.5 21 74 0
1646 67.7 48 95 0
1671 56.9 16 95 0
1676 9.2 1 20 6
1718 17.7 2 38 2
1730 44.2 12 99 0
1739 74.3 35 99 0
1741 20.4 10 42 0
1781 35.1 3 64 1
1885 31.9 5 80 2
1899 33.2 9 67 0
1985 36.7 13 77 0
1986 9.8 1 56 7
2052 21.9 5 79 2
2054 9.8 1 26 5
2080 74.9 37 88 0
2194 48.9 27 71 0
2252 40.7 14 79 0
2283 81.2 49 97 0
2352 45.2 8 82 1
2386 64.2 46 93 0
2389 78.9 44 100 0
2439 41.0 22 70 0
2471 20.4 6 77 3
2612 20.7 1 44 3
2619 19.7 6 59 4
2655 90.0 61 100 0
2783 63.9 28 94 0
2789 62.2 27 94 0
2826 20.2 1 57 2
2851 35.0 2 78 1
2974 40.5 18 79 0
3130 49.7 26 78 0
3137 44.8 19 78 0
3171 83.1 55 100 0
3244 71.6 51 86 0
3280 67.4 29 96 0
3339 60.8 9 94 0
3476 22.5 4 45 3
3574 63.5 43 80 0
3756 47.9 18 81 0
3802 19.5 9 42 0
3880 44.5 8 99 1
3931 37.6 6 68 1
3997 32.0 4 60 2
4276 76.4 31 98 0
4451 51.1 13 93 0
4476 68.0 27 97 0
4487 57.6 23 85 0
4505 69.9 43 96 0
4519 44.1 4 66 1
4531 81.0 26 98 0
4539 61.0 7 90 1
4572 89.0 55 100 0
4586 75.3 47 97 0
4629 79.1 57 99 0
4652 85.8 72 99 0
4656 63.7 38 90 0
4666 87.3 57 99 0
4713 81.5 54 93 0
4828 76.8 36 100 0


(The average rank correlation between schedules is 0.59, but between schedules and max OPR the rank correlation is 0.74)

Picking the most extreme examples, team 341 would rank either 3rd or last, based purely on their randomly chosen alliance partners and opponents.

So I think we can conclude that there is a fairly high degree of scheduling luck, just as we expected.

[MikeE]

You are correct that the schedule has huge impact on ranking. Running 200 match schedules last year (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1160745&postcount=60) showed a standard deviation of number of wins for an average team being around 3.5. Out of 9 matches, that is huge.

I'm clearly far too lazy to run 200 simulations (thanks for the link!), but from just 10 simulations it seems the variation is even greater this year, partly due to just 8 matches in the Championship division qualifications.

Of course the basic underlying assumption (every team scores exactly "OPR" points each match) is fundamentally flawed, but that doesn't dilute the importance of schedule.

[MARS_James]

Rank Team Wins Losses Ties Matches QP AP TP CP
56 1523 4 4 0 8 8 125 372 169






Team Rank Best Worst Top8?
1523 25.2 3 49 2




Boy here I thought my team got a decent schedule apparently the scheduling gods gave us one of the if not the worst schedule possible

[Siri]

Boy here I thought my team got a decent schedule apparently the scheduling gods gave us one of the if not the worst schedule possibleSomething interesting is going on. We ranged 21-74, but the actual schedule put us at 18.

[cmrnpizzo14]

You play the hand your dealt. ::ouch::
At least I'm predicted to lead the Division in Autonomous. :cool: If that prediction holds true then every victory we steal moves us to the head of the next win/loss category. Might make some noise here yet. ;)


I would expect 1986 to at the very least "make some noise here" :rolleyes: I picked you guys with the 2nd pick in my fantasy league so I hope you pan out for me!

[Gregor]

So 1986 seeded in the top 10 7 out of 10 times, yet not even close in the prelim schedule (all OPR based and every one guaranteed to be wrong).

Man, that's a tough schedule.

[MARS_James]

Rank Team Wins Losses Ties Matches QP AP TP CP
56 1523 4 4 0 8 8 125 372 169




I hate to keep harping on this but a thought just occurred to me a teams AP TP and CP scores added together should be equal to your total scores from each of your matches correct? Well on this if you add together the CP AP and TP you get 666 (:ahh: ) or an average score of 83.25 per match. However if you add the OPR scores of each match my team has you get 872 or 109 points per match. So though I think according to OPR my teams win loss is correct, OPR contradicts the average scores used for rankings.

[Joe Ross]

Here's a summary of each team's average, best, worst and "in top 8" rankings across those 10 schedules:

Here's what I get with 100 schedules for rank

Avg Med Mode Min Max StDev Top8 #1
1986 5.37 2 1 1 42 7.75 78 38
2054 10.54 5 3 1 62 12.31 60 12
225 12.65 10.5 15 1 61 10.78 43 6
1676 12.85 9.5 4 1 54 11.31 48 6
1538 14.09 10 2 1 49 13.13 46 7
180 15.33 12.5 8 1 49 12.61 40 5
195 19.67 17.5 8 1 75 13.75 24 1
1718 20 14 11 1 68 16.81 31 1
128 20.52 14.5 7 1 67 16.92 29 2
1208 21.55 17.5 33 1 92 16.23 22 2
2052 22.05 19 17 1 71 14.93 21 1
2612 22.96 16 13 1 68 17.05 22 2
1523 23.46 21 21 1 71 16.11 23 1
2826 24.2 20.5 11 1 83 17.72 16 3
3476 24.64 25 15 1 65 15.60 15 2
1741 26.62 23.5 9 2 91 19.83 15 0
68 27.07 23 15 1 68 17.29 15 2
131 28.68 22 18 1 81 18.39 10 1
141 29.53 25 13 1 88 20.73 11 1
2471 29.74 25 26 2 92 21.34 17 0
2619 30.39 27 22 2 81 20.01 15 0
2252 31.27 28.5 7 1 85 20.38 15 3
1410 32.11 31 39 1 76 19.21 10 2
503 32.67 28.5 20 2 85 21.07 10 0
79 33.22 33 19 2 93 20.61 12 0
175 35.41 31.5 17 3 85 19.88 3 0
116 35.44 32 34 2 95 22.75 8 0
1899 36.02 34 27 4 84 20.26 9 0
3997 36.24 39.5 40 3 91 20.40 8 0
303 36.59 35.5 31 2 85 19.20 4 0
1640 37.38 34 16 3 93 21.47 8 0
4451 37.51 29 24 2 93 24.12 8 0
3931 37.64 37 29 3 77 19.59 8 0
829 38.26 37 45 4 84 20.03 5 0
217 38.29 34 32 2 94 23.43 12 0
341 39.27 33.5 14 2 93 22.65 8 0
1781 40.18 38.5 33 3 95 20.23 4 0
2352 40.35 40 46 1 87 20.23 5 1
3137 40.76 41.5 24 2 94 21.57 4 0
1985 40.83 41 32 5 95 20.92 5 0
1569 41.79 41.5 48 6 94 20.15 3 0
2439 43.21 41 32 6 87 21.03 5 0
2851 43.34 44 29 4 92 20.46 4 0
3130 43.95 43.5 14 2 97 22.29 3 0
2974 44.48 41 31 5 94 23.31 5 0
4519 44.79 43.5 47 1 98 22.41 3 1
1885 45.21 44.5 30 9 86 19.79 0 0
1730 45.5 46 47 5 94 20.87 2 0
2783 47.2 46 66 6 97 21.97 3 0
3802 47.29 46 46 3 92 19.40 2 0
191 47.82 48 38 2 94 22.12 2 0
3880 47.98 51.5 55 6 85 21.00 1 0
1305 48.18 48 48 4 92 21.23 4 0
3756 52.62 53.5 66 10 95 22.69 0 0
4505 57.07 62.5 64 5 97 21.81 1 0
353 57.14 57 53 4 98 24.00 1 0
25 57.25 57.5 57 13 94 20.51 0 0
4476 57.37 57 71 3 96 23.16 3 0
1311 60.18 64.5 73 10 98 21.69 0 0
155 60.21 60.5 67 13 99 19.38 0 0
3339 60.62 58 58 7 100 21.46 1 0
1671 62.32 64 62 9 99 19.12 0 0
1251 63.8 62.5 56 7 99 21.52 1 0
4656 63.85 67 54 14 100 22.13 0 0
3574 64.34 66 92 9 100 23.27 0 0
537 64.96 65 72 6 100 21.52 1 0
4276 65.05 68 86 21 99 19.78 0 0
2386 65.98 70 70 13 96 20.97 0 0
3244 66.04 68 69 19 100 20.16 0 0
2194 66.2 66 81 5 99 20.79 2 0
4487 66.48 70.5 58 15 100 22.02 0 0
1515 66.55 70 83 2 99 22.41 3 0
3280 66.84 69 70 14 100 19.59 0 0
4539 68.44 71 65 15 100 20.57 0 0
190 69.07 75.5 77 19 100 20.76 0 0
604 69.26 71 61 20 100 19.88 0 0
492 69.53 71.5 84 7 100 20.19 1 0
93 70.97 73.5 84 19 100 19.78 0 0
2789 71.15 74 74 7 100 21.84 1 0
4828 72.15 75 85 20 100 17.76 0 0
1646 72.35 78 93 24 99 19.17 0 0
771 72.73 77.5 80 19 99 19.77 0 0
2080 73.41 74.5 74 19 100 19.45 0 0
1511 73.61 76 87 10 100 19.88 0 0
1111 73.88 77 86 7 100 20.60 1 0
88 74.95 77 87 37 100 16.63 0 0
2283 75.18 80.5 92 29 100 19.86 0 0
2389 75.35 81 84 14 100 18.38 0 0
296 76.24 80 82 30 100 16.48 0 0
1739 77.2 81.5 86 23 100 15.97 0 0
4586 77.39 80.5 92 17 100 18.70 0 0
4531 77.4 82.5 86 9 99 17.65 0 0
4629 77.67 83 85 10 100 18.89 0 0
122 80.61 83 98 31 100 15.17 0 0
2655 81.98 87 95 36 100 15.45 0 0
3171 83.49 88.5 89 40 100 14.00 0 0
4666 87 91 100 35 100 13.79 0 0
4652 88.54 93.5 96 38 100 12.68 0 0
4713 90.45 95 100 26 100 12.82 0 0
4572 93.04 96 100 68 100 7.73 0 0



and for wins

Avg Med Mode Min Max StDev
1986 7.01 7 7 4 8 0.93
2054 6.47 7 7 3 8 1.16
225 6.39 6 6 3 8 0.99
1676 6.36 6 7 3 8 1.12
180 6.19 6 7 4 8 1.08
1538 6.15 6 7 4 8 1.22
195 6.1 6 6 3 8 1.04
1523 5.94 6 6 3 8 1.21
1718 5.84 6 6 3 8 1.34
2052 5.82 6 6 3 8 1.19
1208 5.82 6 5 1 8 1.24
128 5.74 6 6 3 8 1.29
2612 5.47 6 6 3 8 1.27
2826 5.44 5.5 6 2 8 1.33
68 5.37 5 6 3 8 1.28
131 5.35 6 6 2 8 1.29
3476 5.32 5 6 3 8 1.16
1410 5.24 5 6 2 8 1.30
503 5.2 5 6 2 8 1.46
1741 5.17 5 6 1 8 1.35
4451 5.16 5 6 2 8 1.48
79 5.15 5 5 1 8 1.47
2471 5.08 5 6 1 8 1.44
2252 5.05 5 4 2 8 1.40
116 5.05 5 5 1 8 1.48
2619 5 5 5 2 8 1.41
303 4.91 5 4 2 8 1.24
141 4.9 5 5 1 7 1.37
217 4.81 5 5 1 8 1.56
829 4.79 5 5 2 8 1.34
3931 4.75 5 4 2 8 1.29
1899 4.74 5 4 2 7 1.31
1640 4.73 5 5 1 7 1.40
175 4.66 5 5 2 8 1.27
341 4.49 5 5 1 8 1.48
1781 4.48 4 4 1 8 1.33
2439 4.44 4 5 2 7 1.35
2352 4.44 4 4 2 8 1.30
3997 4.4 4 4 1 7 1.32
1985 4.34 4 4 1 7 1.36
3137 4.32 4 5 1 8 1.37
1569 4.3 4 4 1 7 1.28
2851 4.28 4 5 1 7 1.29
1885 4.27 4 5 2 7 1.26
2974 4.24 4 5 1 7 1.50
3880 4.24 4 4 2 7 1.36
4519 4.13 4 4 0 8 1.45
1730 4.12 4 4 1 7 1.31
2783 4.1 4 3 0 7 1.41
191 4.07 4 5 1 8 1.43
3802 4.05 4 4 1 7 1.22
3130 4.05 4 4 0 8 1.43
1305 3.96 4 4 1 7 1.36
3756 3.86 4 3 1 7 1.44
25 3.81 4 4 1 6 1.27
353 3.77 4 4 0 8 1.56
4476 3.77 4 4 1 8 1.46
1311 3.6 4 4 1 7 1.37
3339 3.56 4 3 0 7 1.43
155 3.46 4 4 0 7 1.26
4505 3.44 3 3 1 7 1.34
1251 3.32 3 4 0 7 1.41
537 3.21 3 4 0 8 1.48
4656 3.21 3 2 0 6 1.43
190 3.2 3 3 0 6 1.36
4276 3.16 3 3 0 6 1.32
2386 3.13 3 3 1 7 1.36
4487 3.12 3 3 0 6 1.42
1515 3.09 3 3 0 8 1.58
3574 3.03 3 3 0 7 1.55
2789 3.02 3 2 0 7 1.48
604 3.01 3 3 0 6 1.37
1671 2.99 3 3 0 7 1.18
3244 2.95 3 3 0 6 1.37
3280 2.88 3 3 0 6 1.36
2194 2.86 3 3 0 7 1.37
771 2.82 3 3 0 6 1.40
4828 2.8 3 3 0 6 1.26
1511 2.77 3 3 0 7 1.42
492 2.73 3 3 0 6 1.38
88 2.68 3 3 0 5 1.19
4539 2.63 2.5 2 0 6 1.38
93 2.61 2.5 2 0 6 1.36
2080 2.61 3 3 0 6 1.38
1111 2.61 3 3 0 7 1.46
4531 2.44 2 2 0 7 1.31
1646 2.42 2 2 0 5 1.31
1739 2.42 2 2 0 6 1.15
2389 2.25 2 2 0 6 1.31
296 2.24 2 2 0 5 1.24
2283 2.23 2 2 0 5 1.41
4629 2.22 2 2 0 7 1.38
2655 2.22 2 3 0 5 1.29
4586 2.07 2 2 0 6 1.37
3171 2.03 2 2 0 4 1.12
122 1.8 2 2 0 5 1.18
4652 1.65 1 1 0 5 1.15
4666 1.62 2 2 0 5 1.20
4713 1.46 1 2 0 5 1.20
4572 1.04 1 1 0 3 0.90

[pntbll1313]

As expected that almost exactly mirrors OPR.

[Joe Ross]

I hate to keep harping on this but a thought just occurred to me a teams AP TP and CP scores added together should be equal to your total scores from each of your matches correct? Well on this if you add together the CP AP and TP you get 666 (:ahh: ) or an average score of 83.25 per match. However if you add the OPR scores of each match my team has you get 872 or 109 points per match. So though I think according to OPR my teams win loss is correct, OPR contradicts the average scores used for rankings.

Only if the data came from the same source. As stated, the OPR comes from each team's best event OPR, and auto, teleop, and climb comes from world OPR. Since no one publishes each teams teleop, auto, and climb opr at their best event, the numbers don't add up.

[KrazyCarl92]

Only if the data came from the same source. As stated, the OPR comes from each team's best event OPR, and auto, teleop, and climb comes from world OPR. Since no one publishes each teams teleop, auto, and climb opr at their best event, the numbers don't add up.

You can fish the data from 1114's spreadsheet.

[OZ_341]

........... So I think we can conclude that there is a fairly high degree of scheduling luck, just as we expected.
Definitely agree. I have a slightly more anecdotal story related to this discussion.
At the old Maryland State Fair Robotics Competition, the schedule was created by hand. So, when a team did not show up for the event, there was no time to re-run the entire schedule for obvious reasons. It turned out that a team did not show up at all, but was still counted as a partner in the scheduled matches. If they were your partner you played 1 against 2 for that match.
At the end of day one, after about 8 or 9 matches, the missing team was in 4th place. When that happened, I brought my whole team over to see the standings. It was very instructive as to how a favorable schedule can boost a team into the top 8. Just thought I would share. :)

[Joe Ross]

From the 100 schedule data, the standard deviation in rank was used to calculated the 95% rank and determine the outliers. There were 6 outliers. No one has a 3 sigma outlier schedule.

2389 has an easy schedule. Their average rank is 75 with a standard deviation of 18, but predicted rank is 36.

Here are the 6 teams with outlier schedules

Avg StDev Actual
1986 5 8 23
1523 23 16 56
3476 25 16 59
1410 32 19 76
116 35 23 92
2389 75 18 36

[Nuttyman54]

From the 100 schedule data, the standard deviation in rank was used to calculated the 95% rank and determine the outliers. There were 6 outliers. No one has a 3 sigma outlier schedule.

2389 has an easy schedule. Their average rank is 75 with a standard deviation of 18, but predicted rank is 36.

Here are the 6 teams with outlier schedules

Avg StDev Actual
1986 5 8 23
1523 23 16 56
3476 25 16 59
1410 32 19 76
116 35 23 92
2389 75 18 36


This is a really interesting way of evaluating the difficulty of schedules. Would you mind doing this for the other fields?

[MechEng83]

Because there are never enough ways to look at the data, I ran a "Strength of Schedule" calculation based on the max OPR results. It's fairly simple. Rank the OPR's 1-100, then add opponents OPR ranks and subtract other alliance partner OPR ranks. [If a team is Red 2, then add the rank of Blue 1, Blue 2, and Blue 3, then subtract Red 1 and Red 3. Red 2's OPR rank does not factor into the calculated SoS for Red 2]
Lower raw numbers mean a harder schedule. Here are the results:

Strength of Schedule

Rank Team Raw#
1 116 -60
2 1410 14
3 2386 52
4 1986 76
5 1899 77
6 1515 110
7 353 132
8 1523 141
9 3476 154
10 1718 159
11 4652 168
12 2352 180
13 4666 183
14 1781 185
15 2789 195
16 537 199
17 4531 204
18 4519 229
19 2619 235
20 217 250
21 2080 252
22 2471 263
23 4828 263
24 1676 279
25 155 286
26 503 289
27 1305 300
28 1208 305
29 2052 314
30 4451 314
31 604 316
32 2974 320
33 1885 328
34 1251 329
35 3574 329
36 225 334
37 3137 338
38 2655 339
39 25 340
40 1739 341
41 93 342
42 3171 347
43 195 351
44 3244 351
45 2389 356
46 122 371
47 296 375
48 191 389
49 2612 390
50 131 409
51 2252 409
52 88 411
53 3931 419
54 141 421
55 3280 422
56 771 431
57 175 435
58 68 448
59 1671 453
60 4487 453
61 1111 456
62 1511 459
63 1569 471
64 2194 473
65 3339 513
66 303 514
67 2054 517
68 180 521
69 1538 523
70 1640 528
71 2851 528
72 1311 536
73 4572 536
74 190 540
75 3802 540
76 4276 551
77 4713 551
78 4586 557
79 4629 562
80 3756 564
81 4476 569
82 3997 590
83 4539 591
84 3880 594
85 1730 605
86 4505 606
87 492 609
88 3130 612
89 2283 619
90 2783 625
91 2826 641
92 4656 646
93 1741 652
94 1646 660
95 341 665
96 79 683
97 829 688
98 128 697
99 2439 718
100 1985 845



116 does in fact have the toughest schedule.

[dlavery]

116 does in fact have the toughest schedule.

Uuurgggh!

Well, I guess we have our challenge laid out for us.

-dave



.

[DonRotolo]

Uuurgggh!

Well, I guess we have our challenge laid out for us.
.As Billfred sez, Win Anyway.

[Tommy F.]

Here is a Google Doc for Pit Scouting every team in the division. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuF1A5cZW-3sdFpFME1nOGZOM2VwTDI3QXhvWnphT3c#gid=5)

Did anyone manage to get data on the teams with missing info tonight?

[Samwaldo]

Was just watching from home and saw 217 begining to climb and deploying the same arm 1114 and 67 uses. does 217 now have a 30pt climb?

[Gregor]

Was just watching from home and saw 217 begining to climb and deploying the same arm 1114 and 67 uses. does 217 now have a 30pt climb?

Were they successful? They've been trying for a few events now, and they rarely get off the ground.

[Samwaldo]

not even 10 points for 217 with their attempted climb. does anyone know though if they have the ability to do a 30pt climb

[Gregor]

not even 10 points for 217 with their attempted climb. does anyone know though if they have the ability to do a 30pt climb

I think you just answered your own question. :rolleyes:

[Tom Line]

I think you just answered your own question. :rolleyes:

So far, in competition, they haven't managed it that I know of. They worked on it all through MSC, and continue to work on it now. Of course, it's the chickens, so they are dangerous even if they don't get it working.

[DonRotolo]

Is there no audio on the NASA webcast for Newton? Or is it just me...:mad:

[markmcgary]

Is there no audio on the NASA webcast for Newton? Or is it just me...:mad:

It's not just you. I have had no audio on any of the NASA streams.

[DonRotolo]

Audio is back on Newton! Just in time for Match 60 (in which 1676 is playing...) :D

[brinoc]

I've been videotaping 195's matches(except forgot the first one) and posting them on my youtube channel, so if you have a robot in any of our matches and would like to see the match video proceed here (http://www.youtube.com/user/cicib999)

[Siri]

I know it's late but Woohoo! Awesome job to 225 and 1741 for breaking 200* with us in 89. (Then) high score of the field--though congrats 1511, 1538 and 4487! We're climbing 30 with a vengance now! Two practice field sessions plus two quals, one with 100% shot accuracy (did bounce a couple otherwise). I know we're a little late for the Looking Forward prediction, but better late than never, right?

*We got set on breaking 200 on our way to Mid-Atlantic Championship gold, so now 341 can stop ragging on us for not managing it. :p

[Gregor]

1538 just won their match, went undefeated, and clinched the #1 spot.