YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2015's Week 1 Regionals/Districts

[Ian Curtis]

Mostly, this thread is so we can look back in eight weeks and realize how terribly wrong we were. Qualifying round is probably the most useful, but elimination scores are interesting to try and peg as well.

If you can post a reasoning that's awesome, but we'll take just a number as well.

2014 stats from TBA (http://www.thebluealliance.com/insights/2014)

Previous Years
2009 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71231)
2010 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71231)
2011 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88384)
2012 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=99342)
2013 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1214338)
2014 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=124057)

[tindleroot]

In quals we will see maybe 5 single totes pushed onto platforms, and maybe one stack of 2-5 totes on average. That's being optimistic. I see ~20 points in the average qual match not counting TNA or other pool noodle shenanigans. However, a single elite team's presence in a match could raise the score by 30, 40, or even 50 points possibly, and a decent team on either side could get the coopertition bonus. So, to recap:

Average qual match: 25 pts
Minority qual match: 50 pts
Smaller minority quals: 100 pts

Elims will match similarly to the 100 pts of the high-level qualifiers.

[ChrisLlama56]

Bumping for interest. I started a discussion similar to this last night as its difficult to plan a strategy when you don't know if forty points is a gargantuan amount or insignificant.

A lot of people from my region seem to think that six stacks will be common and points will be near the hundreds. However, personally I think the best option (as with a six stack you're pretty much guaranteed only one with a time of over a minute - feel free to contest that please), is to get the autonomous points with the robot bonus at least, or hopefully a container or tote for four to ten points, and then shoot for two stacks at least of three or four totes with a container on the top. Then, if there is time (assuming your robot is fast), try to sweep up any noodles to get a few more points and deny those points to your opponent. This of course makes little difference in the short run, but can be great in the long run.

Doing quicky math, this would get you possibly 4, 10, or 12 points in Auto, anywhere from 18 (single 3 stack) to 48 (two four stacks) in teleop, and then hopefully twenty if you do coopertition (which is important for the tiebreaker). So say with this you average somewhere around fifty points a game. The question is again though, is this a significant amount of points for an alliance (if feasible of course), or is this low?

Additionally, as a side note, since the containers are probably the greatest source of points, it would probably be a good strategy to at the least deny your opponents of as many of the four in the middle as possible, which again is beneficial in the long run.

As a somewhat relevant question also, does anyone think its feasible for an average team (meaning not sponsored by NASA) to make a bot that can make more than one six stack in the time allotted?

[T3_1565]

As a somewhat relevant question also, does anyone think its feasible for an average team (meaning not sponsored by NASA) to make a bot that can make more than one six stack in the time allotted?


I bet 1114 will make at least 2 6 stacks :P (they are not NASA bots)

[Christopher149]

I was apparently pessimistic last year (I guessed 50, but the TBA quals average started near 80 and went up from there).

Auto will see three bots drive into the auto zone pushing recycling containers, giving us 12 points. If The Noodle Agreement is kept, there is another 40 points. Robots drag and pull gray totes around, getting a row 1 layer tall over the whole of the scoring platforms, say about 16 totes for 32 points. One robot from each side is good at some stacking and we get a coopertition set for 20 points. That stacking robot also gets a couple containers on the gray totes for another 8 points. In total, 112 points.

Edit: Looking at some of the past threads, we seemed overly optimistic around 2011 and overly pessimistic more recently (at least in the first several posts of each thread).

[Shrub]

A complete shot in the dark here: average quals match score will range 65-85.

[Jared]

There will be a huge range of scores depending on the quality of the robots this year.

An average alliance with no super-robot will score 40-80, a good alliance in quals can score 80-120.

In competitive eliminations, the game will be won/lost by the green containers in the center.

[themccannman]

Most common score: 0-25 points

Average score: 40

Elims average: 100

Einstein quarterfinal average: 200

[ks68]

Average Qualification Score: 60 points

Average Elimination Score: 105 points

[KMeyers]

As a somewhat relevant question also, does anyone think its feasible for an average team (meaning not sponsored by NASA) to make a bot that can make more than one six stack in the time allotted?

Our robot should be able to create at least 2 stacks of 6, but some of our members have concerns about the stability of the stack, so we probably won't be stacking any more than 4 per stack.

[Bob Steele]

Most common score: 0-25 points

Average score: 40

Elims average: 100

Einstein quarterfinal average: 200

this... except that I think elim average during weeks 1-2-3 will be 80
moving up to 120 in weeks 4-5-6 (Remember that many teams will be doing coopertition in quals but won't get those points in elims...)

Divisional Quarters will be 175-200 (average)
Einstein Quarters 200-250 (average)

I hope I am wrong and MANY more points will be scored...

See you on the field!

[dellagd]

Quals Average: 100 points. Looking at Coopertition, some Auton, and a few stacks its not that hard.

[Bryce Paputa]

Not sure about week one, but I'm thinking around 150 or so at waterford's finals.

[Donut]

Qualification average: 40
Elimination Average: 100

Autonomous is so alliance dependent that 0 points will be common for an autonomous score. I also think teams will struggle overall to manipulate the bins and to stack, no current FRC students have had to build robots with an arm as the primary scoring mechanism (outside of 2013 pyramid climbers). I think the average will be 40 mainly from the elite 100+ matches offsetting the 10 point ones.

[blturner]

80 for quals. 180 for eliminations. 300 at Einstein.

I guess I am more optimistic than most.

[pbhead]

80 for quals. 180 for eliminations. 300 at Einstein.

I guess I am more optimistic than most.

Not really, when you consider that 80 points is simply a ROBOT SET + a 6 stack with can + noodle agreement.

[Abhishek R]

I think the average qualification score in Week 1 will be 30.

A strong playoffs alliance in Week 1 will score 200 points.

An extremely competitive robot will probably be able to score over 100 points by itself.

[shhrz]

For week 1:

Qualifications:
4 point Robot Set (AUTO)
6 point Tote Set (AUTO)
~60 points for TELEOP stacking
~40 points Coopertition (Yellow Totes, Noodle Agreement)

OVERALL: 110 points

Playoffs:
Scaling above, I'd say around 190 points (no Coopertition Totes)...

[wilderbuchanan]

80 for quals. 180 for eliminations. 300 at Einstein.

I guess I am more optimistic than most.

I agree completely. I'm guessing that every team will get a robot set in auto. and have at least 2 stacks of 4 totes plus a can. Also some totes that are just pushed onto the ramp

[sportzkrazzy]

As a somewhat relevant question also, does anyone think its feasible for an average team (meaning not sponsored by NASA) to make a bot that can make more than one six stack in the time allotted?

What exactly is this supposed to mean? NASA sponsors a lot of teams on all skill levels. If you are talking about NASA center teams, which we are not, most of these teams have their students doing a large majority of the work I have seen it in action from our neighbors 233 The Pink Team. Being sponsored by NASA is just like be sponsored by any other company. I also know for a fact that these teams would be some of the first to drop what they are doing and give you a hand.

Just some food for thought

[JohnSchneider]

I think the average qualification score in Week 1 will be 30.

A strong playoffs alliance in Week 1 will score 200 points.

An extremely competitive robot will probably be able to score over 100 points by itself.

If 200 is hit week 1 it happens at dallas and during a quals match with 3 of the more veteran teams. No time else. ;)

[c.shu]

Here are my predictions for the average scores in Week 1.

Average alliance score with The Noodle Agreement: 148
Average alliance score without TNA: 118

This is based off of one above average stacker (A), one robot capable of pushing totes onto the platform (B), and another robot that doesn't do very much besides move in autonomous (C).

Robot A's contribution to the team is 72 points

Carries a container into the auto zone during autonomous
Creates 3 stacks of 4 with a container on top
Places yellow totes on step for coop (does not create a stack of 4 because I think this will be rare among most alliances)

Robot B contributes 10 points

Pushes one container to the auto zone during autonomous
Pushes 5 totes onto the platform for 2 points each

Robot C contributes 2 points

Moves into their auto zone but does not bring anything with them
Struggles to move around the field but manages to put a tote on a platform
Pushes 10 litter into landfill


Now we do the math:

w/ TNA: 72(A)+10(B)+2(C)+40(TNA)+20(coop)+4(Auto)=148
w/o TNA: 72(A)+10(B)+2(C)+20(coop)+4(Auto)+10(landfill litter)=118
Attached is the excel file I created to play around with some numbers.

[MrJohnston]

Week 1 scores will be much lower than week 5 and far lower than those at Regional Championships and, of course, in St. Louis...

My guess:
Week 1 "average" breakdown" for preliminary matches.
Autonomous: 6
Three robots in auto zone will be common, bin sets and tote sets far less so.
Teleop: 25
Getting 5-10 totes into scoring position will be common. A few robots will successfully stack recycle bins.
Noodles: 15
Nearly everybody attempts to stick to "The Noodle Agreement." However, a few scoff at it as it is "not in the spirit of the game." However, many teams find that throwing noodles across the field is not as easy as they thought and noodles commonly are tossed into the landfill on both sides.
Coopertition: 10
Four yellow totes are set on the step in most matches. Stacking four is rare.

Total: 56
I would almost double this total for weeks 5/6

To win week 1: I am guessing that the winning alliance in week one will be putting up 100-150 points per game - with there being a wide discrepency from event to event. In weeks 5/6, would would expect the winning alliance to be putting up 150-200 points in a match.

[Joseph1825]

Week 1 scores (for qualification):

Auto: 1 robot set
Total Auto Score: 4
Reasoning: Every year people over estimate how much will be scored in auto. Not very many robots will be able to score more than a robot set, and there will be rounds when auto programs don't work right.

Tele-op: 3 stacks of three totes, all capped with recycling containers
Total Tele-op score: 54
Reasoning: There will be one robot that cannot lift totes and bulldozes a few unto the scoring platforms. The other two robots can stack totes and finish three stacks, one robot can lift containers and caps all three stacks.

Co-op: 1 co-op set
Total Co-op score: 20
Reasoning: at some point a robot will break off and dump 2 yellow totes on the step and then immediately go back to stacking totes.

TNA: 0
Total TNA score: 0
Reasoning: This will either get banned by FIRST or few enough people will know about it that it doesn't happen very often.

Average week 1 qualification score: 78

[cadandcookies]

Working solo the 'Snow Problem robot was able to do 30 points in 2:15. It that's a middle tier robot then I wouldn't be surprised to see up to 90 point average for quals. If it's poorer than average, we could seen an average over 120. If it's better than average I'd say somewhere around 40-60.

[MARS_James]

If 200 is hit week 1 it happens at dallas and during a quals match with 3 of the more veteran teams. No time else. ;)

You are underestimating how stacked South Florida is this year just off of the top of my head (judging from their previous years) I could see any combination of 108, 125, 179, 180, 744, 1065, 1251, and 1592 easily getting 200 points. Add in our traditional Florida Wild Cards 1523, 2152, 2383, 3242, 3410, 3932, 3992, and 4592 you get 8 more robots who could easily be in matches that get that high. So more than 1/4 of the robots in South Florida, off the top of my head, I could easily see scoring 67 points by them selves. Now I FULLY expect to eat my words once we see robots actually being built but I do think South Florida may be the strongest week 1 regional this year

[tindleroot]

If 200 is hit week 1 it happens at dallas and during a quals match with 3 of the more veteran teams. No time else. ;)

...

Average alliance score with The Noodle Agreement: 148
Average alliance score without TNA: 118


Texas conspiracy confirmed:D

[Tom Bottiglieri]

I predict an average of less than 1 robot per week 1 regional that can stack 3 totes in auto.

My guess for average qual score is 22.

[Anthony Galea]

I was perfect last year (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1321046&postcount=13) :yikes:, so I'll go for it again.

Average Qual Score: 65

Average Elim Score: 115

[AlexD744]

You are underestimating how stacked South Florida is this year just off of the top of my head (judging from their previous years) I could see any combination of 108, 125, 179, 180, 744, 1065, 1251, and 1592 easily getting 200 points. Add in our traditional Florida Wild Cards 1523, 2152, 2383, 3242, 3410, 3932, 3992, and 4592 you get 8 more robots who could easily be in matches that get that high. So more than 1/4 of the robots in South Florida, off the top of my head, I could easily see scoring 67 points by them selves. Now I FULLY expect to eat my words once we see robots actually being built but I do think South Florida may be the strongest week 1 regional this year

Agreed that South Florida and Dallas are the week 1's to watch.

I am expecting low low scores to be the average for week 1 though. This game is so different, and so many teams will still be working out the kinks.

Maybe 30-40 point average in quals.

[zinthorne]

Avg. Qualification :76
Avg Elimination :125-150

Trying not to be bias here, but I think the PNW district championship will be a very good competition to watch. I think that we will see average scores around 115, and eliminations around 200. I could be completely wrong, but hopefully it will be close to that.

[StAxis]

Just for week one, I think the scores will grow at a much steeper rate as time goes on. Teams will get more careful, see designs, and just learn more quickly without defense to fight.

Quals
Average auton: 4
Average bin points: 8
Average tote points: 8
Average noodle points: 3(40)
Average coop: 13
Score: 36 without TNA, 73 with TNA

"Playoffs"
Average auton: 12
Average bin: 16
Average can: 20
Average Noodle: 10
Score: 58

I don't think 200 will be uncommon at championships. Actually kind of expect similar scores to 2013 and 2014 late in the season.

[Caleb Sykes]

I think in the future we should save this thread until after the first rules update.

[sviridovt]

I would say 70 to be average
I would guess most robots will not stack for auto, so 12 points from auto
Most teams will probably do co-op, and its very likely that a lot of the matches will stack those, getting 40 points, but I think that almost every match will get the 20 co-op points. Most games probably will have stacks of 4, 5 or 3 with can and maybe noodles. So I would say 70 will be it.

I am also not counting the TNA since that will almost certainly be gone following a rule update.

[JesseK]

It's Week 1.
Quals average = 64.
Throwing out the outliers of stacked alliances, elims Average = 52-ish.

[Jared Russell]

You will see an average of ~15 coopertition points per match.
Average ~6 auto points per match.
Average ~10 totes and ~5 container * levels = 40
Average ~6 noodle points.
Average ~ (-)6 penalty points.

= 61 point qualification average

The lack of defense makes me more optimistic about Week 1 than usual, since practicing alone in your own school/build space is a better approximation of match play than ever before.

I predict the most common Week 1 penalties will be G5, G6, and G33-B (noodles thrown after the 20s mark).

[mjc49]

I'm thinking qual scores will be pretty low week 1 where there's an average of 50 - 60. I would expect Elim scores to be consistently over 100 week 1 with only the best alliances topping 150. By week 7, we should see average scores be 50% to 75% higher than week 1.

What does the winning prediction win?

[Thromgord]

I would guess an average score of about 60-65 at qualifications, with eliminations scores between 115-130 (barring foul points).

I see a huge gap between the best-scoring matches and the worst... Top score at my regional (the Colorado one) will probably be about 140 points, though it could be a bit higher or lower. There will likely be a majority of the matches with fewer than thirty points, though.

I wouldn't be surprised if Einstein passes 275, just envious. :)