Michigan District Event Difficulty

[Bryce Paputa]

I've been working on a bunch of scouting stuff and have some cool numbers about each of the Michigan events.
Week N Total Score Avg Score Top 8 Score Top 24 Score
MSC 7 102 3927.9 38.5 72.7 59.3
West Michigan 4 40 1105.1 27.6 55.2 36.9
Howell 1 41 1035.8 25.3 47.2 34.1
Waterford 2 42 1057.3 25.2 51.9 35.3
Bedford 6 40 989.8 24.7 57.5 34.0
Livonia 5 40 974.5 24.4 52.7 32.5
Woodhaven 3 40 890.2 22.3 51.2 29.7
Kentwood 2 40 881.6 22.0 43.9 28.4
Traverse City 3 41 867.8 21.2 45.7 28.3
Southfield 1 40 839.5 21.0 47.2 28.2
St Joseph 4 42 844.3 20.1 46.1 27.4
Center Line 5 42 837.7 19.9 38.5 26.9
Kettering 2 41 807.0 19.7 44.1 26.2
Troy 6 40 785.8 19.6 43.5 25.5
Midland 4 42 809.1 19.3 40.1 25.8
Escanaba 5 36 655.6 18.2 32.6 21.8
Standish 1 40 691.8 17.3 33.9 21.6
Gull Lake 3 40 679.8 17.0 33.2 22.1
Lansing 6 41 680.7 16.6 30.4 21.0
All of the "Scores" are predictions of how many "Points" a team should get, using a scoring method very similar to Fantasy FIRST's Scoring method (also similar to the district scoring method) and past competition results. This is meant as more of a prediction of overall team performance and competitiveness than actual district point results. "Top 8 Score" and "Top 24 Score" are the average predicted points for the top 8 or 24 teams. For MSC, this assumes that the top 102 teams make it and that they are just as successful there as at a district event. These are obviously false assumptions for predicting actual scores, but should show the difficulty of MSC pretty accurately. The prediction assumes that not only will teams do as well as they have done in past years, but that they will continue to get better or worse as they have in the past three. Over entire competitions, it should be a pretty accurate reading of competition, but probably not with individual teams.

Here are the predictions for top 8 at each event:
Week 1
Southfield Howell Standish
33 Killer Bees 77.7 862 Lightning Robotics 66.3 503 Frog Force 48.7
1023 Bedford Express 72.7 1918 NC GEARS 56.0 3602 RoboMos 45.0
548 Robostangs 54.7 107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S. 49.2 5193 Pantheon 41.0
573 Mech Warriors 41.2 494 Martians 46.8 1025 IMPIS 31.0
910 The Foley Freeze 37.5 2771 Code Red Robotics 43.8 1243 Dragons 28.7
3604 Goon Squad 32.3 3322 Eagle Imperium 39.0 5166 Fabricators 26.0
2960 automation nation 31.2 245 Adambots 38.7 5231 Radical Jays 26.0
1701 RoboCubs 30.3 141 WO-BOT 37.5 5247 Red Devils 25.0

Week 2
Waterford Kentwood Kettering
1718 The Fighting Pi 78.8 2054 Tech Vikes 65.5 2337 EngiNERDs 72.0
67 The HOT Team 72.0 4967 That ONE Team 48.0 314 The Megatron Oracles 61.8
2137 TORC 60.3 2959 Robotarians 47.7 1711 Raptors 49.8
503 Frog Force 48.7 3234 Red Arrows 40.2 70 More Martians 47.7
3656 Dreadbots 39.8 857 Superior Roboworks 39.8 1684 Chimeras 36.3
4819 Flat Mountain Mechanics 39.8 85 B.O.B. (Built on Brains) 37.5 1243 Dragons 28.7
217 ThunderChickens 38.5 2767 Stryke Force 36.8 2604 Metal and Soul 28.5
3098 The Captains 37.0 4956 White Lake Robotics 36.0 3534 House of Cards 27.8

Week 3
Woodhaven Gull Lake Traverse City
27 Team RUSH 75.8 3641 The Flying Toasters 54.2 862 Lightning Robotics 66.3
1023 Bedford Express 72.7 2834 Bionic Black Hawks 46.8 2474 Excel 50.2
469 Las Guerrillas 66.2 3656 Dreadbots 39.8 1711 Raptors 49.8
3539 Byting Bulldogs 54.0 5162 The Big Red Theory 28.0 3618 Petoskey Paladins 44.5
3322 Eagle Imperium 39.0 5248 Robo-Saxons 27.0 51 The Wings of Fire 41.0
280 TnT 36.5 830 The RatPack 24.2 245 Adambots 38.7
123 Team - Cosmos 33.2 1504 Desperate Penguins 23.8 3688 Norsemen 38.0
815 Advanced Power 32.5 3658 Robo - Beavers 21.8 4391 BraveBots 36.8

Week 4
Midland St. Joseph West Michigan
314 The Megatron Oracles 61.8 469 Las Guerrillas 66.2 1718 The Fighting Pi 78.8
3618 Petoskey Paladins 44.5 2474 Excel 50.2 2054 Tech Vikes 65.5
5193 Pantheon 41.0 2959 Robotarians 47.7 2137 TORC 60.3
4819 Flat Mountain Mechanics 39.8 70 More Martians 47.7 1918 NC GEARS 56.0
910 The Foley Freeze 37.5 494 Martians 46.8 107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S 49.2
2619 The Charge 34.2 3688 Norsemen 38.0 4967 That ONE Team 48.0
302 The Dragons 31.2 2767 Stryke Force 36.8 2771 Code Red Robotics 43.8
4988 Yooper Troopers 31.0 3620 Average Joes 35.8 3234 Red Arrows 40.2

Week 5
Center Line Escanaba Livonia
2834 Bionic Black Hawks 46.8 3602 RoboMos 45.0 27 Team RUSH 75.8
68 Truck Town Thunder 46.5 857 Superior Roboworks 39.8 67 The HOT Team 72.0
573 Mech Warriors 41.2 4391 BraveBots 36.8 548 Robostangs 54.7
3098 The Captains 37.0 2586 Copper Bots 31.3 3641 The Flying Toasters 54.2
4384 Benzene Bots 35.8 74 Team C.H.A.O.S. 31.0 503 Frog Force 48.7
2851 Crevolution 35.5 1596 The Instigators 28.7 51 The Wings of Fire 41.0
123 Team - Cosmos 33.2 66 The Flyers 24.8 217 ThunderChickens 38.5
1189 The Gearheads 32.2 1322 GRAYT 23.5 280 TnT 36.5

Week 6
Lansing Troy Bedford
68 Truck Town Thunder 46.5 33 Killer Bees 77.7 1023 Bedford Express 72.7
1684 Chimeras 36.3 2337 EngiNERDs 72.0 862 Lightning Robotics 66.3
308 The Monsters 30.5 3539 Byting Bulldogs 54.0 469 Las Guerrillas 66.2
858 Demons 29.7 4130 The Blue Devils 36.2 2137 TORC 60.3
5084 Password 26.0 5053 Lakers 29.0 548 Robostangs 54.7
3667 Mecanum Knights 25.8 3534 House of Cards 27.8 3641 The Flying Toasters 54.2
4568 Robot Commander 24.8 226 Hammerheads 26.3 2834 Bionic Black Hawks 46.8
5282 Railroaders 24.0 3548 RoboRavens 2 24.8 3322 Eagle Imperium 39.0

Week 7, MSC
1718 The Fighting Pi 78.8 2054 Tech Vikes 65.5 1711 Raptors 49.8
33 Killer Bees 77.7 314 The Megatron Oracles 61.8 107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S 49.2
27 Team RUSH 75.8 2137 TORC 60.3 503 Frog Force 48.7
1023 Bedford Express 72.7 1918 NC GEARS 56.0 4967 That ONE Team 48.0
67 The HOT Team 72.0 548 Robostangs 54.7 70 More Martians 47.7
2337 EngiNERDs 72.0 3641 The Flying Toasters 54.2 2959 Robotarians 47.7
862 Lightning Robotics 66.3 3539 Byting Bulldogs 54.0 494 Martians 46.8
469 Las Guerrillas 66.2 2474 Excel 50.2 2834 Bionic Black Hawks 46.8


This is also attached in spreadsheet form, and I have more detailed spreadsheets for each competition if anyone wants to see them. These numbers are just speculation and a fun way for me to spend AP Computer Science, take them with many grains of salt. Feel free to ask questions.

[Nyxyxylyth]

Week 6
Troy
469 Las Guerrillas
Bedford
469 Las Guerrillas

Just Bedford, I hope - otherwise, it's gonna be a lot of driving :yikes:

[MrRiedemanJACC]

I'd love to have the detail on Howell and Woodhaven! What's the easiest way for me to get it?

[Brandon Ha]

<3 for the info! gonna be so much fun!
Btw how did we already get MSC teams?
edit: Never mind about that Michigan States :)

[Jaywalker1711]

Seeing my team ranked 3rd in both of our districts is pretty exciting.

This year, we are doing something a bit different (again). We will see how it goes!
Hint: we're using multiple timing belts again... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQY3FD4p6cA

[Bryce Paputa]

Just Bedford, I hope - otherwise, it's gonna be a lot of driving :yikes:

Oops? Not sure how that happened. It's fixed now, but were you registered for Troy earlier in the registration season?

I'd love to have the detail on Howell and Woodhaven! What's the easiest way for me to get it?

I have them attached here (Woodhaven is mifla, Howell is mihow). Anyone can feel free to ask for others. The numbers in the brackets show the teams' performance at each competition like [2014a, 2014b], [2013a, 2013b, 2013c], [2012a, 2012b]. The final prediction is then ((1.5 * average of 2014 competitions) + (1 * average of 2013 competitions) + (.5 * average of 2012 competitions)) / 3, which also happens to be equal to (2014 average + average improvement each year from 2012 to 2014).

As a side note, does anyone know why Woodhaven's event code is mifla? Why not something like miwdh, miwhv, miwhn, mibrn, mibrt, or something else related to Woodhaven HS or it's city?

[rstrawsi]

The reason why Woodhaven is mifla is because the mailing address of Woodhaven High School is Flat Rock (it's in our 'backyard'). Pretty confusing as our district actually is Woodhaven and Brownstown...

[Christopher149]

Seeing my team ranked 3rd in both of our districts is pretty exciting.

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

[Jaywalker1711]

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

That is too bad, we'll miss you guys!

[April_robo]

It's nice to see one of my teams actually emerging as a competitor now. Even though it says 8th at Troy I'll take it

[Hot_Copper_Frog]

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

I'm happy to see 857 ranked so high :) I'll be watching your progress this competitions season...hopefully I'll see you at MSC!

[April_robo]

Can I see the Southfield and Troy districts?

[Gabeman6007]

Can't wait to compete with all you guys - good luck!

[RonnieS]

When are 3rd events going to be added for teams?
-Ronnie

[Lunitic2197]

First for Howell and Traverse City, above 469 for Bedford, and top 8 for States? Really? I'll take it =D

[Bryce Paputa]

Can I see the Southfield and Troy districts?

Here they are.

When are 3rd events going to be added for teams?
-Ronnie

Dang, I thought I had waited until they were filled. You guys rank first at Lansing.

[SeanKwobot141]

First time at Howell, Looking forward to it! :)

[FIMAlumni]

Fun with numbers from the two Week 1 events posted. Assuming this is 100% accurate, alliances always pick best robot available (SCOUTING IS IMPORTANT), and teams don't interfere with each other.

Howell:
Alliance: Captain, First pick, second pick: combined score
1: 862, 1918, 3536: 142.2
2: 107, 494, 4327: 116.3
3: 2771, 3322, 3658: 104.7
4: 245, 141, 1504: 100
5: 4956, 4384, 830: 96
6: 4362, 1189 66: 91.8
7: 4003, 302, 5114: 87.7
8: 3572, 4325, 4004: 80

Southfield:
Alliance: Captain, First pick, second pick: combined score
1: 33, 1023, 5014: 163.3
2: 548 573, 5695: 110.8
3: 910, 3604, 5467: 84.8
4: 2960, 1701, 5673: 76.5
5: 453, 3667, 5642: 68.3
6: 3548, 94, 5619: 63.7
7: 3547,2673, 5577: 57.5
8: 5167, 835, 3302: 50.7

[Bryce Paputa]

Fun with numbers from the two Week 1 events posted. Assuming this is 100% accurate, alliances always pick best robot available (SCOUTING IS IMPORTANT), and teams don't interfere with each other.

Howell:
Alliance: Captain, First pick, second pick: combined score
1: 862, 1918, 3536: 142.2
2: 107, 494, 4327: 116.3
3: 2771, 3322, 3658: 104.7
4: 245, 141, 1504: 100
5: 4956, 4384, 830: 96
6: 4362, 1189 66: 91.8
7: 4003, 302, 5114: 87.7
8: 3572, 4325, 4004: 80

Southfield:
Alliance: Captain, First pick, second pick: combined score
1: 33, 1023, 5014: 163.3
2: 548 573, 5695: 110.8
3: 910, 3604, 5467: 84.8
4: 2960, 1701, 5673: 76.5
5: 453, 3667, 5642: 68.3
6: 3548, 94, 5619: 63.7
7: 3547,2673, 5577: 57.5
8: 5167, 835, 3302: 50.7

Speculation like this is always interesting, but the numbers include points for awards like chairman's and dean's list. Stuff like that might have a tiny influence on picks, but no where as big as the score weights it. IIRC, The scoring system gives (50/number of district events attended) for winning chairman's, which puts it approximately equal to winning the event as first seed. It's the same system that fantasy first uses, you can look at the rules in that forum for more details.

[FIMAlumni]

Speculation like this is always interesting, but the numbers include points for awards like chairman's and dean's list. Stuff like that might have a tiny influence on picks, but no where as big as the score weights it. IIRC, The scoring system gives (50/number of district events attended) for winning chairman's, which puts it approximately equal to winning the event as first seed. It's the same system that fantasy first uses, you can look at the rules in that forum for more details.

Thanks for the input, of course this is all just fun speculation. If the numbers matched up perfectly we should just crown the state champions now. Side note, winning awards like chairman's and dean's list will help a team get picked. Brand recognition and wow factors do influence teams picking.

[Zebra_Fact_Man]

First time at Howell, Looking forward to it! :)

Howell is a good event. Nice layout, and a roomy arena. Competed there last year, and will be returning this year as well. But eeeeeeeeeewwwwww; week 1...

See you there!

[Boltman]

chairman's and dean's list don't enter into my scouting...as they have little to do with robot performance directly , there are better metrics

[Brandon Ha]

Chairman's and Dean's have far reaching impacts upon every aspect of robotics , not only within sponsorships and community. Please never mistake the fact that while some teams maybe a chairman's team to be one of lesser quality.
In reality, these are hallmarks for successful teams because they have a history of doing things right, which is why they are "better" over the years.

[FIMAlumni]

chairman's and dean's list don't enter into my scouting...as they have little to do with robot performance directly , there are better metrics

I never meant to imply that Chairman's and dean's list enter onto your scouting sheets. Winning the big awards does however make your team stand out from the crowd. If your robot is about as good 5-6 other robots, these awards as well as loud cheering sections, bright shirts, flashy LED lights, funny costumes, ect. all help your team stand out from the crowd. Best example of bright shirts in Michigan are the Thunder Chickens. Granted this team rarely needs help being recognized but it certainly doesn't hurt. I'm not saying these awards are going to suddenly move you up 20 picks, but it could help 1-3 picks.

[Boltman]

I never meant to imply that Chairman's and dean's list enter onto your scouting sheets. Winning the big awards does however make your team stand out from the crowd. If your robot is about as good 5-6 other robots, these awards as well as loud cheering sections, bright shirts, flashy LED lights, funny costumes, ect. all help your team stand out from the crowd. Best example of bright shirts in Michigan are the Thunder Chickens. Granted this team rarely needs help being recognized but it certainly doesn't hurt. I'm not saying these awards are going to suddenly move you up 20 picks, but it could help 1-3 picks.

Agreed..however this thread is on "Event Difficulty" and ranking relative team strength and ranking "best robots"... all I am saying is that Deans and Chairman's does not have a direct effect and may very well skew the choice based on those factors in the wrong direction when ranking "robot/driver strength" any one particular year versus overall "Team strength/community involvement/ popularity". There are better metrics to use that aren't as subjective. IMO. That's the thing with statistics make sure your main metrics are not subjective. I should know I had plenty of statistics classes to obtain my degree and that's the way statistics work primarily. Its math.

[SeanKwobot141]

chairman's and dean's list don't enter into my scouting...as they have little to do with robot performance directly , there are better metrics
Really! I find this interesting Why Deans list?

[Boltman]

Really! I find this interesting Why Deans list?

Deans List: Celebrates outstanding student leaders whose passion for and effectiveness at attaining FIRST ideals is exemplary

How does that directly affect Robot/driver strength in any particular match or year?

Its a great accomplishment but not much of a factor in specific robot/drive team performance. I chose not to use those to scout unless its an absolute TIE. then these factors could help break a tie. But then again there are other more relevant metrics for performance on field IMO.

[Bryce Paputa]

Agreed..however this thread is on "Event Difficulty" and ranking relative team strength and ranking "best robots"... all I am saying is that Deans and Chairman's does not have a direct effect and may very well skew the choice based on those factors in the wrong direction when ranking "robot/driver strength" any one particular year versus overall "Team strength/community involvement/ popularity". There are better metrics to use that aren't as subjective. IMO. That's the thing with statistics make sure your main metrics are not subjective. I should know I had plenty of statistics classes to obtain my degree and that's the way statistics work primarily. Its math.

There are two different types of difficulty, difficulty in qualifications and eliminations, and difficulty for winning awards. These numbers should be a roughly equal combination of the two. They're definitely related to each other, but not strongly enough to use for picking. Our scouting process this year is extremely objective, but some important factors are very hard to objectivise. We haven't completely decided how to include these factors, but they will be included. These factors aren't chairman's success or other award history though, more like how well their robot complements our skills and how prepared they are.

[chapman1]

Fine work Bryce; thanks for sharing!

[Coach#3536]

Just a bit of warning from 3536. We had a real tough time with field connections day one with our bot. 5 matches of dumps and drops from field communication. We found out the hard way it had to do with our use of the smart dashboard and data logging. We suggest any team using it to turn it off if possible when going to field. We followed the wpi templates and it made us backlog on start up and drop! It doesn't show up in practice mode. FTA was awesome helping us find it but we suffered with a great robot until it was found. Hence a great final day when the robot was able to do what it was designed to do. Thankfully scouts on our alliance did their homework and found us in the crowd of numbers. Thanks to our partners we had a great day! Good luck everyone.