Poll: Predict the Qualifying District Points Score For District Championships

[piersklein]

Week 5 is soon to start which means District Championships are right around the corner. Predict what District Points Score will qualify a team for a District Championship.

If your answers change by District, then post below.

[SoulianPride]

FIM: Predicting anywhere from 70 to 85 points.

[MikLast]

PNW i would guess at least 60.

[orangemoore]

Week 5 is soon to start which means District Championships are right around the corner. Predict what District Points Score will qualify a team for a District Championship.

If your answers change by District, then post below.

My guess for Indiana will be 42 points. :D

[tindleroot]

My guess for Indiana will be 42 points. :D

You must be psychic:D

[Brian Maher]

For MAR, I am projecting 55-60 points.

[Jack_O]

63-67 minimum for FIM.

[Christopher149]

63-67 minimum for FIM.

Gail Alpert just emailed out that 63 is the expected FIM cutoff.

[KamalRC]

There is already a similar thread to this in the district event page

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=135841

[angelah]

I think FiM will be about 75 points.

[Jack_O]

Gail Alpert just emailed out that 63 is the expected FIM cutoff. Wow, lucky prediction; I swear I did not read that email.

[Jim Zondag]

Good guess Jack....It should be 62-64 for FiM. :)
Non-Determinism at this point in the season comes from a few items including DCA autobyes, and average points claimed by teams attending 3rd events. My predictor puts it a 63 today based on historical data on these items.

A much simpler method yields a similar answer:
We can take all of the past 6 years of events and plot the curve of (% of teams attending MSC) vs (points to get in).
The gives a power equation for the trend of
Threshold = 22.5 * (% attending)^(-0.83)
For this year, with 102/346 teams attending, we get an answer of 62.1.
So both of my methods give pretty much the same answer.
It shouldn't exceed 65 in any case no matter what happens, so if your team has more than this already, start making plans.
Its gonna be great. Two fields = twice the fun.

[Joe Johnson]

Of course, the number of teams in the District and the number of teams allowed in the District Championships matters. It also matters a little how much many District Events there are (and the percentage and capabilities of the teams that go to more than 2 District Events) but this is a second order effect compared the ratio of teams in the District compared to the number of teams at the District Championships.

For NE, I estimate that it will take ~67* points plus or minus depending on how a few key teams that have not played their second district do this weekend (I'm looking at you Gael Force, Buzz, & Techno Ticks). It may also go up or down based on whether teams turn down the invite due to cost concerns.

This isn't part of the poll, but I am more interested in how many points it will take to get an invitation to the Big Dance in St. Louis.

If you have models that can predict that, I'd love to see them (as a team that is trying to figure out whether we should make hotel/flight reservations or not).

Dr. Joe J.

FWIW, here are a few other NE teams to watch that have yet to play their second district -- any of these are on the bubble and can impact who goes to WPI in Week 7

4557 - FullMetal Falcons
1768 - Robo Chiefs
348 - Norwell Robotics
4909 - Bionics
228 - GUS Robotics
2170 - Titanium Tomahawks
126 - Gael Force
166 - Chop Shop
178 - The 2nd Law Enforcers
2836 - Team Beta
3464 - Sim-City
2064 - The Panther Project
467 - Shrewsbury Colonials
999 - MechaRams
5746 - Valley Regional Robotics
663 - Robonauts
172 - Northern Force
5000 - Hammerheads


*My initial version of this message had 63 but realized I had a mistake in my calculation. 67 or 68 seems much more likely giving the number of teams on the bubble that have not yet played their second District yet.