The size of Nationals in a few years!

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Posted by Chris at 04/09/2001 8:59 PM EST


Student on team #610, Coyotes, from Crescent School.



Its gonna get big! At the rate FIRST is growing, the competition is gonna be huge in a few years and we may need for than just one epcot parking lot to house it. Hopefully it will stay at epcot though since this year was awesome!
Hopefully my team and I will recruit some more Canadian teams and get this competition more international and maybe world wide some day! (I know, wishfull thinking)

[archiver]

Posted by Kieran at 04/09/2001 9:04 PM EST


Student on team #11, M.O.R.T., from Mount Olive High School and BASF.


In Reply to: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Chris on 04/09/2001 8:59 PM EST:



I was wondering in about 5 years when First gets too big and Epcot can't support all the teams where will it be hosted?

[archiver]

Posted by Nick at 04/09/2001 9:41 PM EST


Student on team #240, Mach V, from Jefferson Monroe High School and Visteon.


In Reply to: Re: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Kieran on 04/09/2001 9:04 PM EST:



Eventually the regionals WILL become qualifiers for
nationals. I know, it sad to think about, but if FIRST
continues to grow at it's current rate there is barely
a possibility to be able to support 2000+ teams
financially and with space in the pits. As FIRST grows
it will become increasingly harder to book hotels and
flights. Eventually I believe not every team will be
able to enjoy Epcot and the magic of Disney in the
future (5-10 years). I think that creating Divisions
was the first step in creating qualifiers. Just my opinion.

[archiver]

Posted by Chris at 04/09/2001 9:48 PM EST


Student on team #610, Coyotes, from Crescent School.


In Reply to: Re: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Nick on 04/09/2001 9:41 PM EST:



Unfortunately, I think you are right. However I do hope that it does not come to that. No matter what happens at regionals everyone should have the ability to experience Nationals. It should not just be the best of the best. Its an experience that I will never forget.

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Posted by ChrisH at 04/10/2001 10:51 AM EST


Engineer on team #330, Beach 'Bots, from Hope Chapel Academy and NASA JPL, J & F Machine, Raytheon, et al.


In Reply to: Re: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Nick on 04/09/2001 9:41 PM EST:



: Eventually the regionals WILL become qualifiers for
: nationals. I know, it sad to think about, but if FIRST
: continues to grow at it's current rate there is barely
: a possibility to be able to support 2000+ teams
: financially and with space in the pits. As FIRST grows
: it will become increasingly harder to book hotels and
: flights. Eventually I believe not every team will be
: able to enjoy Epcot and the magic of Disney in the
: future (5-10 years). I think that creating Divisions
: was the first step in creating qualifiers. Just my opinion.

This is an issue that FIRST is already struggling with. They mentioned it at the 2000 kick-off. That they were trying to figure out what to do, and they hadn't even gotten to the point of closing the Nationals yet.

Part of the reason is that Disney still wants to support other guests. Imagine shutting down your business during peak season so you could serve a single customer. Not good business sense.

If FIRST continues to grow, I think that eventually they will have to move to a system like that used in college athletics, and then to one like high schools use. The areas a given competition can draw from will be limited.

This will of course limit the diversity of the competition. But that may be the price for success. On the other hand, maybe some creative person will come up with a unique system that works for our unique needs.

Start thinking now, we'll need a solution all too quickly. If you come up with anything TELL SOMEBODY!!!

Chris Husmann, PE
Team 330 the Beach'Bots

[archiver]

Posted by Frank Toussaint at 04/10/2001 1:10 PM EST


Engineer on team #111, Wildstang, from Wheeling and Rolling Meadows and Motorola .


In Reply to: Re: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by ChrisH on 04/10/2001 10:51 AM EST:



If it will enable more teams to attend the Nationals next year, I volunteer to go down there three or four days early and help build the fields, set up the pits, sweep the floors; whatever I can do to help.


: : Eventually the regionals WILL become qualifiers for
: : nationals. I know, it sad to think about, but if FIRST
: : continues to grow at it's current rate there is barely
: : a possibility to be able to support 2000+ teams
: : financially and with space in the pits. As FIRST grows
: : it will become increasingly harder to book hotels and
: : flights. Eventually I believe not every team will be
: : able to enjoy Epcot and the magic of Disney in the
: : future (5-10 years). I think that creating Divisions
: : was the first step in creating qualifiers. Just my opinion.

: This is an issue that FIRST is already struggling with. They mentioned it at the 2000 kick-off. That they were trying to figure out what to do, and they hadn't even gotten to the point of closing the Nationals yet.

: Part of the reason is that Disney still wants to support other guests. Imagine shutting down your business during peak season so you could serve a single customer. Not good business sense.

: If FIRST continues to grow, I think that eventually they will have to move to a system like that used in college athletics, and then to one like high schools use. The areas a given competition can draw from will be limited.

: This will of course limit the diversity of the competition. But that may be the price for success. On the other hand, maybe some creative person will come up with a unique system that works for our unique needs.

: Start thinking now, we'll need a solution all too quickly. If you come up with anything TELL SOMEBODY!!!

: Chris Husmann, PE
: Team 330 the Beach'Bots

[archiver]

Posted by asher at 04/10/2001 4:34 PM EST


Student on team #31 from jest first.


In Reply to: Re: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Nick on 04/09/2001 9:41 PM EST:



Our team can barely afford to attend a regional, what would happen to those teams it wasn't even an option for? After all many teams only attend nationals...


: Eventually the regionals WILL become qualifiers for
: nationals. I know, it sad to think about, but if FIRST
: continues to grow at it's current rate there is barely
: a possibility to be able to support 2000+ teams
: financially and with space in the pits. As FIRST grows
: it will become increasingly harder to book hotels and
: flights. Eventually I believe not every team will be
: able to enjoy Epcot and the magic of Disney in the
: future (5-10 years). I think that creating Divisions
: was the first step in creating qualifiers. Just my opinion.

[archiver]

Posted by Patrick Dingle at 04/09/2001 10:32 PM EST


Coach on team #639, Red B^2, from Ithaca High School and Cornell University.


In Reply to: Re: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Kieran on 04/09/2001 9:04 PM EST:



It happened this year... 335 team capacity out of 520+ teams. Given the fairly consistant growth percentage (about 140%/year) over the past 7 years, next year there will be 741 teams. In fact, here's the actual data and projections through 2010, using a relatively constant growth percentage of about 40%:

YEAR TEAMS PERCENT CHANGE
1992 28
1993 25 0.892857143
1994 44 1.76
1995 59 1.340909091
1996 93 1.576271186
1997 155 1.666666667
1998 199 1.283870968
1999 269 1.351758794
2000 373 1.3866171
2001 526 1.410187668
2002 741 1.408745247
2003 1043 1.407557355
2004 1468 1.407478428
2005 2066 1.407356948
2006 2907 1.407066796
2007 4090 1.406948744
2008 5754 1.406845966
2009 8094 1.406673618
2010 11385 1.40659748

Next year, if Disney does not boost capacity, less than half of FIRST teams will be allowed to attend nationals. If Disney wants to do it right, we'll need about 10 playing fields (depending on the game) and a pit station twice as big as this year :)

Now I know that this growth rate will not stay constant like this (there is not an unlimited number of sponsors out there), but we don't know when growth will slow. So in five years, Disney would have to support almost 3000 teams, or about 8 times as many as this year.

Patrick

: I was wondering in about 5 years when First gets too big and Epcot can't support all the teams where will it be hosted?

[archiver]

Posted by Justin Hirt at 04/10/2001 2:38 PM EST


Student on team #116, Epsilon Delta, from Herndon High School and NASA Headquarters.


In Reply to: Re: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Patrick Dingle on 04/09/2001 10:32 PM EST:



don't be surprised if the start having qualifiers to reach nationals. Or something like high school sports: divisions, regionals, states, national regionals, nationals.

[archiver]

Posted by Brett at 04/10/2001 3:22 PM EST


Student on team #201, Viste-FEDS, from Rochester High School.


In Reply to: Re: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Kieran on 04/09/2001 9:04 PM EST:



: I was wondering in about 5 years when First gets too big and Epcot can't support all the teams where will it be hosted?

A dedicated FIRST facility, of course :)

*runs like a ninny*

[archiver]

Posted by Travis Hoffman at 04/11/2001 3:53 PM EST


Engineer on team #48, Delphi E.L.I.T.E., from Warren G. Harding High School and Delphi Automotive Systems .


In Reply to: The size of Nationals in a few years!
Posted by Chris on 04/09/2001 8:59 PM EST:



How about breaking the Nationals (or everything?) up into several separate classes (A,AA,AAA) based upon how many years the teams have been around? A = 1-3 years, AA = 4-6 years, AAA = 7- years Then have separate national competitions for each class, held on subsequent weekends. Lower classes will have their national competitions first. If a team or teams wins the nationals in their class, permanently promote them to the next class above them and invite them to participate in the higher class's competition. Minor league baseball, anyone? Using this method or some variation, everyone would still get to go to Nationals, you could still have Nationals at Disney, all you would have to do to allow for expansion is increase the number of classes, and you would (gasp!) actually force the rookies to EARN the right to compete with the big boys instead of artificially leveling the playing field by designing that evil word - parity - into the fabric of the game. Everyone in baseball hates a young prima donna who thinks he deserves the world handed to him on a silver platter. The vets paid their dues - they earned the right to compete in the big leagues - make the rookies do the same. No artificial flavors added.

YA HEARIN' ME, DEAN?

Travis Hoffman