Shooting Percentage for week 1

[marcusbernstein]

As build season comes to a close, I have been spending a lot of time thinking about shooting percentage, especially at events towards the beginning of competition season. What do you think will be the average shooting percentage at a week 1 event and why?

[Ginger Power]

In our early practice rounds we're hitting about 50% of our shots. Right now we don't have a camera, or a gyro on our shooter so we're just eyeballing it from 40 feet away. I'd expect our accuracy to go up dramatically when we have our final sensors.

I'll predict that the top 3-5 teams at a mid level event will hit over 90% of their high goal shots, and do 3-5 cycles. The mid tier teams will hit less than 70% of their shots and would be better served by going low goal.

[Michael Hill]

With a few exceptions, I'll just say generally not high enough to get a ranking point for damaging the tower (this will probably be the first couple weeks).

EDITING IN A CAVEAT: With a shots primarily being from high-goal shooting.

[bEdhEd]

I couldn't think of a percentage as my prediction, but I think that some teams capable of shooting high will opt to not shoot at a week 1 event until elimination matches. At a week 1 event, I think it is certainly possible for a team capable of shooting high to play it safe and consistently score into the low goal to better guarantee tower weakening which leads to a capture for ranking points.

The teams with the most practice and the best vision systems would probably shoot high consistently in qualifications if they choose to not save it for eliminations. Those teams would be the outliers for shooting percentage if we were to consider an average for all teams attempting a high goal.

It may even be possible that there will be enough defense in eliminations to lower the shooting average of teams that did a 75%+ success rate in qualifications.

[XaulZan11]

I'll predict that the top 3-5 teams at a mid level event will hit over 90% of their high goal shots

:eek: :ahh:

[Procolsaurus]

Top 1% of teams: 80%
Top 5% of teams :65%
average team: 30%

[Michael Hill]

:eek: :ahh:

This statistic wouldn't completely shock me to be honest. We ran the numbers for our 2012 robot. We found we were 80% shooting our first shot at Queen City, and actually a little bit worse than that for the proceeding shots due to wheel speeds slowing down. We were a good shooter in 2012 (probably among the best in percentages). I think for the most part, teams are getting good at shooter games, which could boost up shot %.

[Ty Tremblay]

This statistic wouldn't completely shock me to be honest. We ran the numbers for our 2012 robot. We found we were 80% shooting our first shot at Queen City, and actually a little bit worse than that for the proceeding shots due to wheel speeds slowing down. We were a good shooter in 2012 (probably among the best in percentages). I think for the most part, teams are getting good at shooter games, which could boost up shot %.

It was much easier to hit the 2012 goals than it will be to hit the Stronghold goals.

[Ginger Power]

:eek: :ahh:

I'm basing my estimates off my team's early practice runs. Hitting the high goal isn't as hard as I thought it would be. I'm also taking into consideration little to no defense in quals as every alliance will be trying to breach and capture. It'll take 3 average offensive robots to breach and capture during week 1, I don't think 2 average robots can do it.

[XaulZan11]

I'm aware this year isn't that similar to 2014's shooting challenge, but the best shooter at Central Illinois (with at least 1 make per match) was only 76%. At Wisconsin, the best shooter made 81% of their shots. With a division winner at both of those events, I think most people would assuming the percentage would be higher.

[OccamzRazor]

The goal position is similar to what it was in 2006 for Aim High. I thought that was a much easier target than 2012 where you had to incorporate backspin if you were shooting from far away. I think the percentages will be similar to 2006.

Why are people testing from 30ft+ away from the goal again? I think the robots that shoot from either on the edge of the defense and touching the courtyard carpet or the robots that choose the point blank batter shots will be more successful. Because those two positions are defensible I think teams will make more shots.

[Thad House]

It was much easier to hit the 2012 goals than it will be to hit the Stronghold goals.

For certain types of shooters and distances yes. You have more allowable height error this year then 2012, and I would guess that angle error is fairly identical to 2012. I think close shots are going to be easier then close high goal shots in 2012, but far shots will be the same, if not a little harder.

[Ty Tremblay]

For certain types of shooters and distances yes. You have more allowable height error this year then 2012, and I would guess that angle error is fairly identical to 2012. I think close shots are going to be easier then close high goal shots in 2012, but far shots will be the same, if not a little harder.

Geometrically, I agree with you, but defense will be much easier in Stronghold than in 2012. The only safe zone is at least 16ft away.

[Lil' Lavery]

The goal position is similar to what it was in 2006 for Aim High. I thought that was a much easier target than 2012 where you had to incorporate backspin if you were shooting from far away. I think the percentages will be similar to 2006.

Why are people testing from 30ft+ away from the goal again? I think the robots that shoot from either on the edge of the defense and touching the courtyard carpet or the robots that choose the point blank batter shots will be more successful. Because those two positions are defensible I think teams will make more shots.

The size of the goal in 2006 was substantially larger than the goals in 2016. Additionally, teams were allowed to possess more than one ball at a time (meaning, they could use any error on the first shot(s) to correct for later shots).

[pandamonium]

I couldn't think of a percentage as my prediction, but I think that some teams capable of shooting high will opt to not shoot at a week 1 event until elimination matches.

^
This! With the minor exception of shooting in Auto.

[Boltman]

Geometrically, I agree with you, but defense will be much easier in Stronghold than in 2012. The only safe zone is at least 16ft away.

...and on batter

[Ty Tremblay]

...and on batter

You're not protected there. It's like in front of the low goal in 2014. Teams could bash away at you while you were there and they can do the same while you're on the batter.

[Lil' Lavery]

...and on batter

The batter offers no protection (via rules) until the final 20 seconds. The geometry of the batter may help you avoid defensive measures from steering you off target when shooting, but that same geometry may well also work against you making it off the batter and back to collect more boulders in a timely fashion.

[waialua359]

You're not protected there. It's like in front of the low goal in 2014. Teams could bash away at you while you were there and they can do the same while you're on the batter.
Exactly this.
And a word of advice, hold that ball in tight and make sure the back of your robot (opposite side of shooting) is robust.
I cant stress enough how many times the back of our robot got damaged from appendages coming into our robot from high speed ramming in 2014 as we scored from in front the low goal.
And 99% of them were no penalty calls too.

[daliberator]

Top 1% of teams: 80%
Top 5% of teams :65%
average team: 30%

I think this is probably going to be the case, especially at less-competitive events.

[jeremylee]

The batter offers no protection (via rules) until the final 20 seconds.
Pinning?

[PayneTrain]

Hitting 2 out of every 3 shots in Rebound Rumble is a lot more favorable than making 2 of 3 shots in Stronghold.

[Wayne TenBrink]

Pinning?

Draft of a question I plan to submit to Q&A:
------------------
Per Rule G22, would either of the following actions by blue robot initiate the 5 second countdown toward a pinning penalty:
a) Red robot is fully supported by blue batter and is in control of a boulder. Red robot appears to be preparing to score the boulder and does not appear to be attempting to leave the batter. Blue robot makes contact (single or repeated) with red robot and remains in a position that would prevent red robot from leaving the batter.
b) Red robot has released control of the boulder and appears to be attempting to leave the batter. Blue robot is in a position that would prevent red robot from leaving the batter.

In other words, does G22 provide limited protection to robots on the batter that are attempting to score boulders, or are they subject to normal defensive action as long as they are attempting to score and not attempting to leave the batter?
----------------------------------

As for the shooting percentage for Week 1, I voted for 31%-40% but I suspect that is too high. Never underestimate the ability of teams to overestimate the quality of Week 1 performance.

[Ian Good]

I think that the teams that find themselves missing their shots will start putting the ball into the low goal and the teams that are dialed in will continue to shoot, increasing the average accurace of the event.

[Mr. Lim]

The definition of pinning a robot on the batter has been on my mind a lot right now too.

When a robot is fully on the batter, it's basically enclosed on 3 of 4 sides by the field. An opposing robot simply has to drive near the open side to be considering pinning it. Will refs call it this way, and start counting down as an opposing robot gets near?

The rules are pretty clear to me, but sometimes the actual gameplay is different.

This has major implications, because it basically means defending robots need to leave a clear path for robots to drive off the batter, or risk being called for pinning.

[mwmac]

The definition of pinning a robot on the batter has been on my mind a lot right now too.

When a robot is fully on the batter, it's basically enclosed on 3 of 4 sides by the field. An opposing robot simply has to drive near the open side to be considering pinning it. Will refs call it this way, and start counting down as an opposing robot gets near?

The rules are pretty clear to me, but sometimes the actual gameplay is different.

This has major implications, because it basically means defending robots need to leave a clear path for robots to drive off the batter, or risk being called for pinning.

Update 10's blue box dealing with G22 pinning on the batter is ambiguous at best since it says the above actions by the defending robot "could be considered pinning". Mayhaps GDC and Q&A could use more direct language when crafting a blue box response the purpose of which is to clarify the GDC's intention behind a rule. As a suggestion, "will be considered pinning" works...

[Nathan Streeter]

Draft of a question I plan to submit to Q&A:
------------------
Per Rule G22, would either of the following actions by blue robot initiate the 5 second countdown toward a pinning penalty:
a) Red robot is fully supported by blue batter and is in control of a boulder. Red robot appears to be preparing to score the boulder and does not appear to be attempting to leave the batter. Blue robot makes contact (single or repeated) with red robot and remains in a position that would prevent red robot from leaving the batter.
b) Red robot has released control of the boulder and appears to be attempting to leave the batter. Blue robot is in a position that would prevent red robot from leaving the batter.

In other words, does G22 provide limited protection to robots on the batter that are attempting to score boulders, or are they subject to normal defensive action as long as they are attempting to score and not attempting to leave the batter?

Have you seen the blue box added to G22 in Team Update 10 (scroll down) (https://firstfrc.blob.core.windows.net/frc2016manuals/TeamUpdates/2016TeamUpdatesComplete.pdf)? It pretty clearly answers situation B...

There is no FIRST Robotics Competition specific definition of pin, so a
general definition applies; “to prevent or stop something from moving.”
As a result, contact is not required for pinning to occur. For example, a
ROBOT parked right behind an opponent that is on the BATTER could
be considered pinning because the dividers on the BATTER and the
parked ROBOT prevent the opponent from moving.

I - personally - am disappointed to see this update that came late in the build season (and which flew under my radar until yesterday). We largely avoided designing around scoring from the batter based on concern with being pinned in. This update probably is good for the broader elevation of scoring, but further reduces viable defensive strategies.

Particularly if we end up having trouble scoring as accurately as we need from farther out, we may still be able to use the base of the tower as a "safe" shooting location.

The definition of pinning a robot on the batter has been on my mind a lot right now too.

When a robot is fully on the batter, it's basically enclosed on 3 of 4 sides by the field. An opposing robot simply has to drive near the open side to be considering pinning it. Will refs call it this way, and start counting down as an opposing robot gets near?

The ambiguity opened up by the potential for non-contact pinning definitely does make this situation (and Wayne's situation A) more vague and subjective than I like. Hearkens back to some of the 2014 refing woes (although hopefully much less common).

EDIT: I'm adding a link over to the Team Update 10 thread (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=143701) for commenting on this fact... it seemed that it hadn't been mentioned in that thread up to now.

[Wayne TenBrink]

Have you seen the blue box added to G22 in Team Update 10 (scroll down) (https://firstfrc.blob.core.windows.net/frc2016manuals/TeamUpdates/2016TeamUpdatesComplete.pdf)? It pretty clearly answers situation B...



I - personally - am disappointed to see this update that came late in the build season (and which flew under my radar until yesterday). We largely avoided designing around scoring from the batter based on concern with being pinned in. This update probably is good for the broader elevation of scoring, but further reduces viable defensive strategies.

Particularly if we end up having trouble scoring as accurately as we need from farther out, we may still be able to use the base of the tower as a "safe" shooting location.



The ambiguity opened up by the potential for non-contact pinning definitely does make this situation (and Wayne's situation A) more vague and subjective than I like. Hearkens back to some of the 2014 refing woes (although hopefully much less common).

EDIT: I'm adding a link over to the Team Update 10 thread (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=143701) for commenting on this fact... it seemed that it hadn't been mentioned in that thread up to now.

Yes, I have seen the Update 10 wording. I agree that it clearly answers "Situation B", but is ambiguous on "Situation A". When it comes to the G21 exception to G11 (G11 Blue box item C) the GDC chose to let robots do what they need to do to play the game without being penalized. In the case of G22 on the batter, the defending robot could be considered to be taking legitimate game-play action up to the point where the scoring robot makes there shot - but then maybe not. It makes a big difference to how the game might be played.

I have tried to submit the question to Q&A, but can't manage to get into the system. I tried my normal login ID and the Q&A login from TIMS with no success. If anybody else wants to submit it, please do.

[jeremylee]

I'm been thinking of the following scenario's (basically breaking A into 3 categories):
1. Offensive robot drives onto batter with bumper or robot itself against opponents castle wall, defending robot initiates contact.
2. Offensive robot drives onto batter with bumper or robot itself against the dividers, defending robot initiates contact.
3. Offensive robot drives onto batter but not against opponents castle wall or dividers, defending robot initiates contact.
4. Offensive robot on batter after shot trying to move away from the castle, defending robot blocking exit.

My current thoughts are:
1: pinning same as it would be if you were pushed up against the field wall
2: pinning same as it would be if you were pushed up against the field wall
3: may or may not be covered under G22 blue box update
4: pinning based on G22 blue box update

Very ambiguous indeed if you ask me, and likely a common scenario since this plays out for the low goals also.