IRI 2016 Predictions

[TheBoulderite]

I haven't seen one yet, so I decided to make one. It's less than a month away, and it seems like a great time to start predicting what will happen at the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational. Who will win? What memorable things will happen? You can guess on this thread. Here's my two cents.

First of all, the team list for this year looks stacked. Among all of the teams that qualified, there are 55 regional/district event winners, 32 regional/district event finalists, 9 district champions, 5 district championship finalists, 13 division champions, 10 division finalists, 3 Einstein finalists, and 3 world champions. That's quite the lineup.

Going into IRI, the teams are happy to see each other. Teams from the same area help each other out, teams from the same division say hello to each other, and the mood is competitive, but also friendly.

All compete well in the qualifications, with the new tower strength of 12 being an interesting challenge for many teams. At the end of the quals, the top 8 teams pick their alliances, and choose names for themselves.

1. 2056-5172-3620-3683 (Name: OP Dave's Average Gators)
2. 330-2481-1086-1511 (Name: Rolling Blue Beach-ateers)
3. 1241-610-1477-25 (Name: The Theory of Texan Coyotes (feat. Team 25))
4. 118-67-1011-910 (Name: The Hot Robo-crush Freeze)
5. 179-1619-233-2826 (Name: Children of the Pink Creek Wave)
6. 195-225-16-2451 (Name: Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire)
7. 868-1024-71-3824 (Name: HVA Techa-hamma-bytes)
8. 27-133-217-1675 (Name: Bert's Ultimate Thunder Rush)

During alliance selection, things get interesting. The entire championship-winning alliance, sans 120, reunites. 1241 picks 610, then uses a magic potion developed after 2013 to summon 1477 and their robot to play with them in the eliminations. 179 picks another team from Florida, then two teams with water-related names. 195 puts together a high-scoring alliance, while 868 puts together a mainly Indiana-centric alliance. 2056 takes some of the best performers from the quals.

The quarterfinals occur. 1 beats 8 in some very close matches, and 6 upsets 3 after the potion wears off and 1477 disappears. During the 4 v. 5 matches, the crowd gets confused when 179 brings a live alligator onto the field and 1619 brings a bucket of water. The alliance then shows off a new autonomous mode where 1619 fills the moat with water and 179 throws the alligator into the moat. The alligator then attempts to eat the opposing alliance, taking bites out of 1011 and 118. Although 910 freezes the moat with an ice cannon during the next match, 5 moves on to the semis. 2 overcomes 7 after some crazy matches, and the semis matchup is set.

The semis are crazy. Much to everyone's disappointment, 5172 has no alligators with them, and in some very intense matches 179's alliance takes it to three. During the tiebreaker, 233's defense proves to be the reason that 179 advances to the finals. The championship-winning alliance finds a worthy opponent in 195's alliance, falling to them in the tiebreaker by less than ten points.

The finals arrive. Two very strong alliances prepare to face off. The tension is in the air. 179 sends themselves, 1619, and 233 onto the field. 195 sends themselves, 225, and 16 to represent their alliance.

Finals 1 begins. 195 makes both of their two shots during autonomous, and both 225 and 16 make theirs. 179 and 1619 both make their shots, and 233 crosses the defenses. Despite the fact that both 179 and 1619 make all of their shots during teleop, 195's alliance puts more boulders into the tower. Further, 233 is unable to make it back to the batter in time, meaning 179 doesn't get the capture. 195's alliance takes the first round 175-250.

Finals 2 commences. 195 makes one of their shots, 225 misses, and 16 doesn't fully get over the ramparts. 179 and 1619 make the shots, while 233 crosses. During the match, 179 and 1619 put up more shots than the previous match, making all of them. Meanwhile, 195 and 225 seem to be off their mark, but still putting in quite a few boulders. 233 makes it back to the batter in time, and both 179 and 195 capture the tower. 179 scales at the last second, desperate for points. It's close, but 179 pulls out a win 245-235.

Finals 3 has 233 test their high goal autonomous. All three robots on all three alliances make their auto shots, making the game tied. Then, 233 goes to work. They play hard defense on the blue alliance, but it's difficult to stop three high goal shooters. While some of the shots are off, most make it in. Meanwhile, 179 and 1619 make all the shots they can, and put up a lot of them. During the final thirty seconds, 233 races back to the tower, and goes for the climb. 179 goes for the climb. 1619 goes for the climb. All three robots manage to scale, while only two climb 195's. The match ends and the referees convene, with the score a minute later. Due to a few defensive moves by 233, foul points are awarded to 195's alliance. It ties the score at 230-230, taking it to a fourth match.

Finals 4 sees some new developments. 179 swaps 233 with 2826 so their alliance can have three consistent high goal shooters. The match starts, with all six robots making a high goal shot. No defense is played, just each alliance shooting as many high goals as possible into the tower. The match is intense, and the scores close. Whatever 195 does, 179 responds with. Both alliances pull off a triple scale, and both weaken the tower to exactly the same number. In one of the coolest and perfectly orchestrated matches of the tournament, both alliances tie at 250-250.

Finals 5 sees 195 make their two ball auto, while all other robots make one. During the match, 16 suffers a drivetrain failure, but is pushed onto the batter by 225. However, 179's crew is unable to capitalize on it because of missed shots. Due to 195's two ball auto, the score ties again at 215-215. The driveteams of each alliance are quite exasperated by now, and the drive coaches of both sides convene to plan how to beat the other alliance.

Finals 6 has 195 swap 16 with 2451, as 16's robot is out of commission. 195 has a slight edge in auto, with scores remaining close for the entire match. 179's alliance scores one more boulder than 195's during teleop, as 2451 runs out of time and can't shoot their stored boulder during the endgame. The crowd almost can't deal with the stress and intensity as the scores tie yet again, at 225-225. Both drive teams disappear to their pits to prepare for the final match.

Finals 7. THE deciding match. 179 keeps 2826 on the field, while 2451 remains on the field for 16. 179 and 1619 break out the alligator and bucket of water once more, while 195's alliance prepares for the match. The countdown begins. "3...2...1...GO!" says the MC. As soon as the match starts, no robot goes for the high goal. 179 and 1619 fill the moat and place the alligator into it. The crowd is stunned by the other alliance's response as 225 turns into a mechanical dragon and takes flight. As soon as teleop starts, 225 goes for 2826, preparing to breath a ball of fire. Then, 2826's driveteam presses a button, and their robot turns completely into water. 225 is unable to burn up Wave, and goes for their tower instead. No matter how many boulders 1619 shoots, they are burned up by 225. The field reset crew notices and runs off to open more boxes of boulders. At this point, the MC gives up on trying to narrate the match. Seeing that their alliance needs help, 233 runs to the field with their robot, enables it, and tosses it onto the field to assist their team. 16 does the same thing moments later. 233 launches Greek fire into the tower, causing the electricity to short and the tower health lights to go off. Meanwhile, the alligator in the moat attempts to eat 195's robot to no avail, as their robot is alligator-proof. 2451 seems to be the only team that is successfully scoring points. The final thirty seconds begin, and 16 stops on the field. Their drivetrain has broken again, and people from the Bomb Squad start freaking out. 179, 1619, and 2826 climb the tower, with 233 getting on the batter under 179. 195 and 2451 make some last minute shots, and 195 climbs. 2451 climbs, and makes their endgame shot. 225 has stopped, their driveteam preparing for something truly unbelievable. With five seconds to go, 225's dragon grabs 16's robot and flies to the top of the tower with it. They set it down and transform back into a robot. With one second left, 225 grabs onto the tower and pulls up high enough to scale.

It is deathly silent in the room as everyone tries to process what just happened. The anticipation of the score keeps the room quiet, as everyone is on the edge of their seats to find out what it is. The final score arrives. By a difference of five points, Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire wins the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational, with a final score of 295-300. The crowd goes wild, and no one can believe anything that just happened.

When the finals and awards ceremony conclude, the teams say a teary goodbye to each other, knowing that many of them will be attending a different championship and will never see them again.

Those are my predictions. What are yours?

TL;DR: Nope. Read the whole thing.

[orangemoore]

1114.

[Pauline Tasci]

8. 27-217-3476-1675 (Name: Ultimate Orange Thunder Rush)

Unfortunately, 3476 will not be attending IRI this year.

[page2067]

I haven't seen one yet, so I decided to make one. It's less than a month away, and it seems like a great time to start predicting what will happen at the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational. Who will win? What memorable things will happen? You can guess on this thread. Here's my two cents.

First of all, the team list for this year looks stacked. Among all of the teams that qualified, there are 55 regional/district event winners, 32 regional/district event finalists, 9 district champions, 5 district championship finalists, 13 division champions, 10 division finalists, 3 Einstein finalists, and 3 world champions. That's quite the lineup.

Going into IRI, the teams are happy to see each other. Teams from the same area help each other out, teams from the same division say hello to each other, and the mood is competitive, but also friendly.

All compete well in the qualifications, with the new tower strength of 12 being an interesting challenge for many teams. At the end of the quals, the top 8 teams pick their alliances, and choose names for themselves.

1. 2056-5172-3620-3683 (Name: OP Dave's Average Gators)
2. 330-2481-1086-1511 (Name: Rolling Blue Beach-ateers)
3. 1241-610-1477-25 (Name: The Theory of Texan Coyotes (feat. Team 25))
4. 118-67-1011-910 (Name: The Hot Robo-crush Freeze)
5. 179-1619-233-2826 (Name: Children of the Pink Creek Wave)
6. 195-225-16-2451 (Name: Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire)
7. 868-1024-71-3824 (Name: HVA Techa-hamma-bytes)
8. 27-217-3476-1675 (Name: Ultimate Orange Thunder Rush)

During alliance selection, things get interesting. The entire championship-winning alliance, sans 120, reunites. 1241 picks 610, then uses a magic potion developed after 2013 to summon 1477 and their robot to play with them in the eliminations. 179 picks another team from Florida, then two teams with water-related names. 195 puts together a high-scoring alliance, while 868 puts together a mainly Indiana-centric alliance. 2056 takes some of the best performers from the quals.

The quarterfinals occur. 1 beats 8 in some very close matches, and 6 upsets 3 after the potion wears off and 1477 disappears. During the 4 v. 5 matches, the crowd gets confused when 179 brings a live alligator onto the field and 1619 brings a bucket of water. The alliance then shows off a new autonomous mode where 1619 fills the moat with water and 179 throws the alligator into the moat. The alligator then attempts to eat the opposing alliance, taking bites out of 1011 and 118. Although 910 freezes the moat with an ice cannon during the next match, 5 moves on to the semis. 2 overcomes 7 after some crazy matches, and the semis matchup is set.

The semis are crazy. Much to everyone's disappointment, 5172 has no alligators with them, and in some very intense matches 179's alliance takes it to three. During the tiebreaker, 233's defense proves to be the reason that 179 advances to the finals. The championship-winning alliance finds a worthy opponent in 195's alliance, falling to them in the tiebreaker by less than ten points.

The finals arrive. Two very strong alliances prepare to face off. The tension is in the air. 179 sends themselves, 1619, and 233 onto the field. 195 sends themselves, 225, and 16 to represent their alliance.

Finals 1 begins. 195 makes both of their two shots during autonomous, and both 225 and 16 make theirs. 179 and 1619 both make their shots, and 233 crosses the defenses. Despite the fact that both 179 and 1619 make all of their shots during teleop, 195's alliance puts more boulders into the tower. Further, 233 is unable to make it back to the batter in time, meaning 179 doesn't get the capture. 195's alliance takes the first round 175-250.

Finals 2 commences. 195 makes one of their shots, 225 misses, and 16 doesn't fully get over the ramparts. 179 and 1619 make the shots, while 233 crosses. During the match, 179 and 1619 put up more shots than the previous match, making all of them. Meanwhile, 195 and 225 seem to be off their mark, but still putting in quite a few boulders. 233 makes it back to the batter in time, and both 179 and 195 capture the tower. 179 scales at the last second, desperate for points. It's close, but 179 pulls out a win 245-235.

Finals 3 has 233 test their high goal autonomous. All three robots on all three alliances make their auto shots, making the game tied. Then, 233 goes to work. They play hard defense on the blue alliance, but it's difficult to stop three high goal shooters. While some of the shots are off, most make it in. Meanwhile, 179 and 1619 make all the shots they can, and put up a lot of them. During the final thirty seconds, 233 races back to the tower, and goes for the climb. 179 goes for the climb. 1619 goes for the climb. All three robots manage to scale, while only two climb 195's. The match ends and the referees convene, with the score a minute later. Due to a few defensive moves by 233, foul points are awarded to 195's alliance. It ties the score at 230-230, taking it to a fourth match.

Finals 4 sees some new developments. 179 swaps 233 with 2826 so their alliance can have three consistent high goal shooters. The match starts, with all six robots making a high goal shot. No defense is played, just each alliance shooting as many high goals as possible into the tower. The match is intense, and the scores close. Whatever 195 does, 179 responds with. Both alliances pull off a triple scale, and both weaken the tower to exactly the same number. In one of the coolest and perfectly orchestrated matches of the tournament, both alliances tie at 250-250.

Finals 5 sees 195 make their two ball auto, while all other robots make one. During the match, 16 suffers a drivetrain failure, but is pushed onto the batter by 225. However, 179's crew is unable to capitalize on it because of missed shots. Due to 195's two ball auto, the score ties again at 215-215. The driveteams of each alliance are quite exasperated by now, and the drive coaches of both sides convene to plan how to beat the other alliance.

Finals 6 has 195 swap 16 with 2451, as 16's robot is out of commission. 195 has a slight edge in auto, with scores remaining close for the entire match. 179's alliance scores one more boulder than 195's during teleop, as 2451 runs out of time and can't shoot their stored boulder during the endgame. The crowd almost can't deal with the stress and intensity as the scores tie yet again, at 225-225. Both drive teams disappear to their pits to prepare for the final match.

Finals 7. THE deciding match. 179 keeps 2826 on the field, while 2451 remains on the field for 16. 179 and 1619 break out the alligator and bucket of water once more, while 195's alliance prepares for the match. The countdown begins. "3...2...1...GO!" says the MC. As soon as the match starts, no robot goes for the high goal. 179 and 1619 fill the moat and place the alligator into it. The crowd is stunned by the other alliance's response as 225 turns into a mechanical dragon and takes flight. As soon as teleop starts, 225 goes for 2826, preparing to breath a ball of fire. Then, 2826's driveteam presses a button, and their robot turns completely into water. 225 is unable to burn up Wave, and goes for their tower instead. No matter how many boulders 1619 shoots, they are burned up by 225. The field reset crew notices and runs off to open more boxes of boulders. At this point, the MC gives up on trying to narrate the match. Seeing that their alliance needs help, 233 runs to the field with their robot, enables it, and tosses it onto the field to assist their team. 16 does the same thing moments later. 233 launches Greek fire into the tower, causing the electricity to short and the tower health lights to go off. Meanwhile, the alligator in the moat attempts to eat 195's robot to no avail, as their robot is alligator-proof. 2451 seems to be the only team that is successfully scoring points. The final thirty seconds begin, and 16 stops on the field. Their drivetrain has broken again, and people from the Bomb Squad start freaking out. 179, 1619, and 2826 climb the tower, with 233 getting on the batter under 179. 195 and 2451 make some last minute shots, and 195 climbs. 2451 climbs, and makes their endgame shot. 225 has stopped, their driveteam preparing for something truly unbelievable. With five seconds to go, 225's dragon grabs 16's robot and flies to the top of the tower with it. They set it down and transform back into a robot. With one second left, 225 grabs onto the tower and pulls up high enough to scale.

It is deathly silent in the room as everyone tries to process what just happened. The anticipation of the score keeps the room quiet, as everyone is on the edge of their seats to find out what it is. The final score arrives. By a difference of five points, Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire wins the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational, with a final score of 295-300. The crowd goes wild, and no one can believe anything that just happened.

When the finals and awards ceremony conclude, the teams say a teary goodbye to each other, knowing that many of them will be attending a different championship and will never see them again.

Those are my predictions. What are yours?

TL;DR: Nope. Read the whole thing.

I think you nailed it. Look forward to it playing out.

[BotDesigner]

You forgot the thousands of chief delphi pages discussing the event in these following threads: we missed our flight home because somebody removed the tie-breaker rule, number 5 seed alliance used illegal uninspected mechanisms to win their matches, Team 195 used a mentor built robot dragon, team 1619 used a mentor built water bucket, Car Nack never said this was coming, field reset crew was slow in their response to the builder destruction, number 6 seed alliance should have been red carded for boulder destruction, IRI needs to move to districts, we can't have 2 IRIs, we need every FRC team to go to IRI, the field announcer should never have made that inappropriate comment ("This is lunacy!") when 195 turned into a dragon because it scared everyone who had had done FRC in 2009 out of the arena, cheesecaking pet alligators is evil, chief delphi is evil.

[EricH]

Unfortunately, #IRISplit and #2IRIs seem to have already happened.





*ducks and covers for a few days*


The second one is known as "IRI West", or more officially, "Chezy Champs".

[frcguy]

The second one is known as "IRI West", or more officially, "Chezy Champs".


Dropshots fired.

[Anupam Goli]

I'm gunning for 1746 to pull off a shocker and win IRI undefeated. #homerbias

[Jay O'Donnell]

Any thought of elims without 133 in it hurts me.

Personally hoping to see 1058 do well obviously, they definitely earned their spot this year.

I'll probably do a full elims prediction at some point when the final roster is announced.

[TheBoulderite]

Unfortunately, 3476 will not be attending IRI this year.

Darn! That's a shame. You guys were great this year, I'll be looking for you guys at Chezy Champs!

[jajabinx124]

Nice set of predictions! I like that you re-created the 2013 world winning alliance ;)


I'll probably do a full elims prediction at some point when the final roster is announced.

I'll probably do one as well after the final roster is announced.

[TheBoulderite]

I didn't know the final roster hadn't been announced yet. Oh well, guess I jumped the gun. ;)

[Chris is me]

At IRI, some teams try harder than others. Everyone takes it somewhat seriously, more than any other off season, but there are some teams that relax and others that go all-out. The all-out teams tend to perform better and are more likely to win. I won't name names, but it's just something to keep in mind.

My money's on 2056 and 195. Lots of great teams that will do well here, but I expect both these teams to give it their all and to play their best matches of the season at IRI.

The last low goal robot still playing in the eliminations will be 3683, who may be an alliance captain.

[Basel A]

At IRI, some teams try harder than others. Everyone takes it somewhat seriously, more than any other off season, but there are some teams that relax and others that go all-out. The all-out teams tend to perform better and are more likely to win. I won't name names, but it's just something to keep in mind.

There's also a huge difference between teams that use the previous season's drivers and those that use new drivers. This varies both team by team and year by year and the effects are not easily predicted.

[AWoL]

Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire

...

Finals 7. THE deciding match. 179 keeps 2826 on the field, while 2451 remains on the field for 16. 179 and 1619 break out the alligator and bucket of water once more, while 195's alliance prepares for the match. The countdown begins. "3...2...1...GO!" says the MC. As soon as the match starts, no robot goes for the high goal. 179 and 1619 fill the moat and place the alligator into it. The crowd is stunned by the other alliance's response as 225 turns into a mechanical dragon and takes flight. As soon as teleop starts, 225 goes for 2826, preparing to breath a ball of fire. Then, 2826's driveteam presses a button, and their robot turns completely into water. 225 is unable to burn up Wave, and goes for their tower instead. No matter how many boulders 1619 shoots, they are burned up by 225. The field reset crew notices and runs off to open more boxes of boulders. At this point, the MC gives up on trying to narrate the match. Seeing that their alliance needs help, 233 runs to the field with their robot, enables it, and tosses it onto the field to assist their team. 16 does the same thing moments later. 233 launches Greek fire into the tower, causing the electricity to short and the tower health lights to go off. Meanwhile, the alligator in the moat attempts to eat 195's robot to no avail, as their robot is alligator-proof. 2451 seems to be the only team that is successfully scoring points. The final thirty seconds begin, and 16 stops on the field. Their drivetrain has broken again, and people from the Bomb Squad start freaking out. 179, 1619, and 2826 climb the tower, with 233 getting on the batter under 179. 195 and 2451 make some last minute shots, and 195 climbs. 2451 climbs, and makes their endgame shot. 225 has stopped, their driveteam preparing for something truly unbelievable. With five seconds to go, 225's dragon grabs 16's robot and flies to the top of the tower with it. They set it down and transform back into a robot. With one second left, 225 grabs onto the tower and pulls up high enough to scale.


That was quite possibly the most beautiful thing I have ever read.

[TheBoulderite]

My money's on 2056 and 195. Lots of great teams that will do well here, but I expect both these teams to give it their all and to play their best matches of the season at IRI.

The last low goal robot still playing in the eliminations will be 3683, who may be an alliance captain.

195 has an excellent shot this year. Out of all the teams with a two ball autonomous, I'd argue theirs was the most accurate. As for 2056, well, you don't win IRI three years in a row without trying. :D

As for the low goal bots, I'd argue others, like 1011 and 25, will be selected as well. Both were excellent low goal bots. Some of the most dangerous alliances at IRI will probably be two really accurate high goal shooters with a low goal bot to drop off boulders in the courtyard for the two high goal shooters to pick up.

[TheBoulderite]

That was quite possibly the most beautiful thing I have ever read.

Thank you. Glad you liked it. Now let's see it actually happen. :D

[Chris is me]

195 has an excellent shot this year. Out of all the teams with a two ball autonomous, I'd argue theirs was the most accurate. As for 2056, well, you don't win IRI three years in a row without trying. :D

As for the low goal bots, I'd argue others, like 1011 and 25, will be selected as well. Both were excellent low goal bots. Some of the most dangerous alliances at IRI will probably be two really accurate high goal shooters with a low goal bot to drop off boulders in the courtyard for the two high goal shooters to pick up.

I'm not saying 1011 or 25 won't get picked, just that 3683 will be the last low goal robot eliminated from the event. But perhaps a low goal robot that is weaker than these three will get picked as the last backup and win it all. Who knows? Anything can happen at IRI.

[nbetik]

The last low goal robot still playing in the eliminations will be 3683, who may be an alliance captain.

Perhaps the only alliance captain playing defense? We did that at worlds. Otherwise, I like the original predictions in this thread.

Defense is fun.

[evanperryg]

The last low goal robot still playing in the eliminations will be 3683, who may be an alliance captain.

I'll second that. If they somehow fall back in the rankings, they'll be a power pick for some lower-seeded alliance to make an awesome upset.

On the topic of awesome IRI upsets

*cough*

[TheBoulderite]

On the topic of awesome IRI upsets

*cough*

Yeah. Your alliance last year was kind of awesome.

[BrendanB]

195 is on fire this year. They've been to seven events in the official and offseason winning all of them while seeding #1 at five of them.

Cyberknights will be a strong captain or one of the first few picks.

[TheBoulderite]

Another prediction...

No alliance at IRI will score more than 300 points.

[BronzeStallion]

No alliance at IRI will score more than 300 points.
Well...

30 - Auto Cross
40 - Auto Boulders (someone has a 2 ball)
35 - Tele Cross (all 5 defenses damaged)
45 - 3 Scales

=150 points (Not including teleop boulders or breach/capture)

In quals:
300-150 = 150
150/5 = 30
30 boulders in the high goal during teleop

In elims:
45 - Breach/Capture
300-195 = 105
105/5 = 21
In a near perfect match in elims, Only 21 boulder need to be scored in the high goal during teleop.
That's 7 boulders each robot. Very unlikely but definitely possible.

[Alex Cormier]

Einstein finals match 3, the winners put in 17 high goals. That's almost double of what we usually let through our defense. 21 is possible.

[Brian Maher]

In a near perfect match in elims, Only 21 boulder need to be scored in the high goal during teleop.
That's 7 boulders each robot. Very unlikely but definitely possible.

It is certainly possible. 2791 and 195 made 19 high goals in teleop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlX8CmIFa1U) at Battlecry, scoring 250 points, with only two goal-scoring robots (though 501 was helpful in getting us the breach while we scored high). While there was the open sally port, us and 195 only used it a total of twice that match.

If our high goal auto had worked and 195 had scaled that match, it would have been 270. Again, this is with only two shooting robots. 300 is definitely possible at IRI.

[Chris is me]

It is certainly possible. 2791 and 195 made 19 high goals in teleop (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlX8CmIFa1U) at Battlecry, scoring 250 points, with only two goal-scoring robots (though 501 was helpful in getting us the breach while we scored high). While there was the open sally port, us and 195 only used it a total of twice that match.

If our high goal auto had worked and 195 had scaled that match, it would have been 270. Again, this is with only two shooting robots. 300 is definitely possible at IRI.

Plus IRI will have the rules modifications allowing for easier two ball autons. That alliance only reached 250 points, but could have had three more auton balls for 280 points. Add another hanger and you're at 290. 300 seems possible at IRI in the perfect qual match.

Besides, only one of the robots on that alliance was good enough to get into IRI :rolleyes:

[Karthik]

Plus IRI will have the rules modifications allowing for easier two ball autons. That alliance only reached 250 points, but could have had three more auton balls for 280 points. Add another hanger and you're at 290. 300 seems possible at IRI in the perfect qual match.


Yup, and all these projections aren't including potential foul points added to the score. Not saying 300 points will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

[TheBoulderite]

I'm not saying 1011 or 25 won't get picked, just that 3683 will be the last low goal robot eliminated from the event. But perhaps a low goal robot that is weaker than these three will get picked as the last backup and win it all. Who knows? Anything can happen at IRI.

Ah, I see. I'm willing to believe that prediction. 3683 has a great bot this year.

[jtrv]

Einstein finals match 3, the winners put in 17 high goals. That's almost double of what we usually let through our defense. 21 is possible.

Well, you averaged letting up 13.4 high goals per game at Einstein. 17 isn't really close to 27 in that perspective. You did have an incredible performance at Finger Lakes though, at an average of 2 teleop high goals during playoffs, admittedly against weaker teams than IRI caliber.

[Kevin Leonard]

I'll adjust these later. Or maybe make an entirely new set of predictions. I can't resist this stuff!

1241-2056-610-3683 W
225-5172-4587-2590 F
2771-2481-1024-1747
195-1114-133-1058
118-33-2451-624 SF
1023-67-2767-1718 SF
27-16-3620-1619
330-341-2502-1640

330 and 118 decline 225
195 declines 2771

[Whatever]

We get a palindrome alliance.

Some Possibilities:
27,1511,5172
2052,494,2502
2052,33,2502
2052,868,2502
610,3130,16
330,3130,33
610,330,16
45,25,5254
71,2767,217
33,1747,133
33,2767,233
1640,1310,461
1640,3130,461
330,1310,33

[Karthik]

We get a palindrome alliance.

Some Possibilities:
27,1511,5172
2052,494,2502
2052,33,2502
2052,868,2502
610,3130,16
330,3130,33
610,330,16
45,25,5254
71,2767,217
33,1747,133
33,2767,233
1640,1310,461
1640,3130,461
330,1310,33

This might be the best post in CD history.

[bkahl]

This might be the best post in CD history.

Someone just tapped into Karthik's inner math geekiness.. :p

[thatprogrammer]

2056-195-33-20 SF
118-16-1806-3641 SF
3481-1114-1619-1310 W
1241-179-2771-4039 F
2451-2481-624-3824 QF
330-217-4587-2338 QF
67-1024-2013-2590 QF
133-225-2052-3683 QF

[414cnewq]

My predictions.
1. 1241-195-27-2052 W
2. 179-2056-5460-3683 F
3. 2590-133-1640-4587 QF
4. 234-3620-217-1114 SF
5. 67-503-1718-233 QF
6. 71-1024-225-3641 SF
7. 118-1806-2451-494 QF
8. 2481-330-16-1731 QF

[nikeairmancurry]

My predictions.
1. 1241-195-27-2052 W
2. 179-2056-5460-3683 F
3. 2590-133-1640-4587 QF
4. 234-3620-217-1114 SF
5. 67-503-1718-233 QF
6. 71-1024-225-3641 SF
7. 118-1806-2451-494 QF
8. 2481-330-16-1731 QF

1114 as a third round pick and no 33 :yikes:

[Chris is me]

1114 as a third round pick and no 33 :yikes:

There are so many good teams at IRI, there's no guarantee 1114 is a first round pick at this event. Among second round picks at IRI the last few years: 1625 in 2014, 3467 in 2013, 148 in 2012, 67 in 2011, 2056 in 2010... many many great teams fall quite far.

[jajabinx124]

My IRI Predictions:

1) 2056, 195, 225, 2013 W
2) 1241, 118, 179, 3824 F
3) 217, 2481, 4039, 2338 QF
4) 67, 330, 2590, 494 SF
5) 3130, 1114, 2052, 4587 QF
6) 2451, 1806, 1718, 1619 SF
7) 1024, 16, 2826, 503 QF
8) 2468, 33, 624, 1640 QF

[414cnewq]

1114 as a third round pick and no 33 :yikes:
I did some serious number crunching, taking the stats from 2016 Championship for each team (or the final regional/DCMP stats for teams who didn't attend champs). I then took avg goal score, avg auto score, etc... (the stats from rankings on the blue alliance), and I changed all of those stats so that the highest value available (for instance, 1241's goal score of 657, highest at champs) would equal 1000. Then I took the data and got percentage values as to a "perfect" match (i.e., 30 pt auto, 12 high goals, scale... by a single team). I used that data to create a rank score, when I then took the top 8 teams and did alliance selections based on goal score (3 exceptions, I had 2481 choose 330 and added in 233 and 3683 as defensive selections).

tl;dr. I did some fancy number crunching (shown here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mijxUB_xAwzS1ZgrvQZ4hpHnej-4odJYZmNjrMZrPH0/edit?usp=sharing)) and then took teams based on goal score in a mock draft.

[Lidor51]

1. 195, 1241, 624, 3620 W
2. 2056, 5172, 3824, 5460 SF
3. 330, 2481, 2771, 2468 F
4. 133, 118, 3683, 1619 QF
5. 217, 67, 33, 1640 SF
6. 1024, 1114, 4039, 1718 QF
7. 16, 2052, 4587, 233 QF
8. 225, 179, 27, 20 QF

[Kevin Leonard]

1. 195, 1241, 624, 3620 W
2. 2056, 5254, 3824, 5460 SF
3. 330, 2481, 2771, 2468 F
4. 133, 118, 3683, 1619 QF
5. 217, 67, 33, 1640 SF
6. 1024, 1114, 4039, 1718 QF
7. 16, 2052, 4587, 233 QF
8. 225, 179, 27, 20 QF
What
If we're the second overall pick at IRI, something went very, very wrong for at least half the robots at the event.

New predictions with the updated team list:

195-2056-133-1058
1114-67-1718-4039 SF
118-330-4587-624 W
1241-33-179-3683 F
4967-27-3641-20
225-2481-2502-5254
1024-217-1747-1619
1806-16-1023-2451 SF

EDITED with the revelation that 341 isn't going :(

[jajabinx124]

What
If we're the second overall pick at IRI, something went very, very wrong for at least half the robots at the event.

New predictions with the updated team list:

195-2056-133-1058
1114-67-1718-4039 SF
118-330-4587-624 W
1241-33-179-3683 F
4967-27-217-20
225-341-2502-5254
1024-2481-1747-1619
1806-16-1023-2451 SF

341 is not on the final team list.

[hutchMN]

What
If we're the second overall pick at IRI, something went very, very wrong for at least half the robots at the event.

New predictions with the updated team list:

195-2056-133-1058
1114-67-1718-4039 SF
118-330-4587-624 W
1241-33-179-3683 F
4967-27-217-20
225-341-2502-5254
1024-2481-1747-1619
1806-16-1023-2451 SF

I think you switched 2502 and 2052. 2052 is the much better team this year.

[jtrv]

W. 2481, 67, 2468, 3620
F. 195, 133, 494, 5254
SF. 330, 118, 27, 1619
SF. 2056, 1241, 1023, 217
QF. 225, 1806, 1746, 2590
QF. 2451, 16, 4587, 20
QF. 3683, 179, 2052, 1718
QF. 3130, 33, 1024, 2338

I'm a big fan of 1114, but 2016 just isn't their year.

[Lij2015]

1. 2056-5172-3620-3683 (Name: OP Dave's Average Gators)
2. 330-2481-1086-1511 (Name: Rolling Blue Beach-ateers)
3. 1241-610-1477-25 (Name: The Theory of Texan Coyotes (feat. Team 25))
4. 118-67-1011-910 (Name: The Hot Robo-crush Freeze)
5. 179-1619-233-2826 (Name: Children of the Pink Creek Wave)
6. 195-225-16-2451 (Name: Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire)
7. 868-1024-71-3824 (Name: HVA Techa-hamma-bytes)
8. 27-133-217-1675 (Name: Bert's Ultimate Thunder Rush)


TL;DR: Nope. Read the whole thing.

I see someone is a 1086 fan! I will also eat my hat if 195 falls that far.

[Liam Fay]

Many are putting 5172 in their predictions - the website says that they are not going to be in attendance.

[jajabinx124]

Many are putting 5172 in their predictions - the website says that they are not going to be in attendance.

Most likely because some people started making predictions before the final list was released.

[Kevin Leonard]

341 is not on the final team list.
Darn. Edited with changes.
I think you switched 2502 and 2052. 2052 is the much better team this year.
Depends on what you're looking for in your pick, although I certainly appreciate the modesty.

[jajabinx124]

Depends on what you're looking for in your pick, although I certainly appreciate the modesty.

HutchMN is too modest.. :D, 2502 built a good robot as well this year!

It makes more sense to put 2502 with 225 and 2481 anyway since both of them shoot from the outerworks they may want a batter shooter for their 3rd robot.

[youngace89]

It makes more sense to put 2502 with 225 and 2481 anyway since both of them shoot from the outerworks they may want a batter shooter for their 3rd robot.
And one that could climb as consistently as Talon did in the Galileo playoffs. They were a very effective second pick for that alliance.

[jajabinx124]

And one that could climb as consistently as Talon did in the Galileo playoffs. They were a very effective second pick for that alliance.

Agreed. If I counted it right during some of 2502's elims matches in Galileo they scored most of the boulders for their alliance at times and scaled consistently.

[FiMFanatic]

I see someone is a 1086 fan! I will also eat my hat if 195 falls that far.

I predict someone has to eat a hat! :D

[NonStopScouting]

Before I finish up prescouting and making my own prediction for alliances, here are some general predictions I have, along with some questions for the community to get a better idea of what the teams going to IRI are looking for picking wise (so I can make my predictions more accurate).

General Predictions:

2056 will win (with whatever alliance they happen to be a part of)
Palindrome Alliance (absolutely loved that post)
Finals will be a game of 3 offensive bots vs 2 offensive bots and a defending bot (If Einstein ended that way, why not IRI)
At least two alliances will use their backup bot when none of the other robots on their alliance are broken (for strategy reasons). Expanding on this point I personally think the backup bots could be used a lot more than they are this year. For example you could have a defense bot you switch in against certain alliances, or have an outerworks shooter for when you are against defense. Especially at IRI when there will be some good robots left after alliance selection.


Questions for the IRI community:

Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?
How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?
At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?

By midfield shooting I mean shooting from the courtyard, but not the batter or the outerworks. That middle zone in-between the two.
Can't wait until IRI! It is going to be fun!

[jajabinx124]

Questions for the IRI community:

Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?
How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?
At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?

By midfield shooting I mean shooting from the courtyard, but not the batter or the outerworks. That middle zone in-between the two.
Can't wait until IRI! It is going to be fun!

I think single auton high goal is more valuable because the tower strength decreases. In my opinion contributing to the capture is more important than 10 more points for scaling than challenging.

Outerwork shooters are more likely to be picked than mid-field shooters just like championships and regionals in my opinion. It's a protected zone and in order to shut down an outerwork shooter you need blocker of some sort. It forces your opponents to be creative in order to stop you, whereas with a mid-field bot all a defensive bot has to do is push you to mess up the shot. So it still remains the same to me picking wise Outerworks > Batter > Midfield. Not many teams have the ability to do this but shooting from the wall is also a great way to shoot under defense- teams like 1241 and 5172 have pulled it off very well during competition season.

I would put in a defensive bot against 3 tall outerworks shooters... especially if their alliance is non-stop cycling in boulders. Blockers can stop outerwork shooters too. I would run defense against a batter shooter as well if it was strategically advantageous. The defender basically has to make it tough as possible for the batter shooter to get on the batter when they are cycling boulders in, examples being coming in their way while they are trying to travel toward the batter.

[Sperkowsky]

I think single auton high goal is more valuable because the tower strength decreases. In my opinion contributing to the capture is more important than a 10 more points for scaling than challenging.
getting fouls.

The thing is a capture is going to be almost trivial for any alliance at IRI. The only matches without captures are probably going to be related to robots not getting on the batter on time.

So, from there I would check consistency. Which is higher Robot A's single ball auton consistency or Robot B's scaling consistency. Whichever one is getting those extra points more often wins.

[Kevin Leonard]

Questions for the IRI community:

Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?
How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?
At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?

By midfield shooting I mean shooting from the courtyard, but not the batter or the outerworks. That middle zone in-between the two.
Can't wait until IRI! It is going to be fun!

These are good questions.

The single auto shot has the benefit of lowering the tower, but in IRI elims you should have enough teleop boulders to lower the tower anyway, and that team is likely going to score that ball the instant teleop starts. It also depends how consistent they both are, because even elite scaling bots missed climbs this season quite often.
I'd pick Outer Works and batter over midfield every time, and probably tall outer works over batter, although it depends on the role the robot is trying to perform, and the volume of balls they output.
I'd run a defensive robot if I thought they could lower the output of my opponents more than my third offense bot would add to my own offense. So short outer works shooters are prime targets, and robots that are used to running specific sets. I might also run some robots on feeding or something that's a hybrid offense/defense role of sorts.

[jajabinx124]

The thing is a capture is going to be almost trivial for any alliance at IRI. The only matches without captures are probably going to be related to robots not getting on the batter on time.

So, from there I would check consistency. Which is higher Robot A's single ball auton consistency or Robot B's scaling consistency. Whichever one is getting those extra points more often wins.

True, but IRI may see heavy defense in eliminations making it tougher to capture in teleop so going with the single ball auton may be a safer choice but that's a weak argument because of the number of great shooters IRI contains, so I agree that the capture will be trivial for any alliance at IRI and if it comes down to that, going with whichever one is most consistent (single ball auto or scaling) is the best choice.

[Koko Ed]

Considering how much of a part they played on getting to Einstein and through Einstein with their intense defense I'm surprised 1405 has not made anyone's predictions. I'm sure 2056 will not pass them by.

[GKrotkov]

Considering how much of a part they played on getting to Einstein and through Einstein with their intense defense I'm surprised 1405 has not made anyone's predictions. I'm sure 2056 will not pass them by.

Wait, do you possibly mean that strategic flexibility is a desirable trait in a 4-team alliance of which only 3 can be on the field at a time?

Mind = blown.

[Gregor]

I'd run a defensive robot if I thought they could lower the output of my opponents more than my third offense bot would add to my own offense.

That's genius!

[TheBoulderite]

Questions for the IRI community:
[LIST]
Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?

As most of the teams on the list have a single high goal auton or better, you could say that scaling points will help, but the consistency of the auton will be most important.

On the other hand, my team's alliance experienced firsthand the power of scaling points during the Carson eliminations, and you could argue that scaling points will have a large impact on who wins the match.

[hutchMN]

Will a no-footprint scale add significant value to a team at IRI?

[fishing_cat]

Will a no-footprint scale add significant value to a team at IRI?

What does "no-footprint scale" mean? Ty

[troy_dietz]

What does "no-footprint scale" mean? Ty I would assume it refers to a robot that does not "scrape" the wall of the tower as it scales, allowing robots to scale on either side without risking a robot being pushed off. (allowing a triple scale to be much more feasible) 148, 1114, 330 and several other robots scaled away from the wall this year.

[Brian Maher]

What does "no-footprint scale" mean? Ty

Having just recently watched one of 2502's matches, I believe this means climbing in a way that the bottom of the robot is re-oriented to points sideways away from the tower.

Will a no-footprint scale add significant value to a team at IRI?

All things equal, I think this kind of scale is more valuable than a simple hang. However, I would take a consistent hang over an inconsistent no-footprint scale, unless I already have two climbers on my alliance and a triple scale would not otherwise be possible.

[fishing_cat]

Having just recently watched one of 2502's matches, I believe this means climbing in a way that the bottom of the robot is re-oriented to points sideways away from the tower.



All things equal, I think this kind of scale is more valuable than a simple hang. However, I would take a consistent hang over an inconsistent no-footprint scale, unless I already have two climbers on my alliance and a triple scale would not otherwise be possible.

Ah, thank you for this info!

[Brian Maher]

I'm a bit late on responding to NonStopScouting's discussion questions, but here are my thoughts:


Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?

My answer here is whichever is more consistent. Controlling for accuracy, I would vote high goal auto due to:

+1 tower damage
the points are locked in at the beginning of the match. A robot dying mid-match may lose the climb but cannot lose auto points
not scaling leaves time for an additional high goal or two, potentially making the high goal auto worth five points more than a scale without high goal auto.



How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?


It obviously depends on the number/accuracy of high goals scored, but my general ranking looks something like this:
Un-defendable outerworks shooters. While I haven't personally seen any of the IRI teams demonstrate such a shot, I've talked to a few who claim to be able to shoot over a max height defender with 15" extension from the outer works.
Low catapult or tall outerworks shooters who are difficult to defend.
Batter shooters, because of how difficult they are to defend once they make it to the batter
Low non-catapult outer works shooters, because of how easy it can be to shut them down by sticking a defender with a wall in front of them.
Non-turret courtyard shooters, because of how easy it is for a defender to push them around

I have chosen not to list turret shooters on this ranking because I think their value ranges from 2-4 depending on their time to aim and their ability to evade defenders by means such as outerworks, batter, or 179/254/1241-style wall shots.


At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?


Like many questions, this one can be addressed with math. I calculated the teleop high goal component OPR for each of the teams in attendance, rounded to the nearest integer, and then simuated "alliances" assuming the robots who scored the most high goals seed highest, teams pick the team available who scores the most high goals, and there are no declines:
1) 8 8 5
2) 6 6 4
3) 6 6 4
4) 6 6 4
5) 5 5 4
6) 5 5 4
7) 5 5 4
8) 5 5 4
A few observations:

The top alliances (1-4) will likely be able to capture with only two robots
The lower alliances (5-8) may have a hard time capturing, even with all three robots on offense.
The weakest shooter on a triple-offense strategy will average 4-5 high goals

From here, it can be concluded that defense is advisable if:

an alliance can capture with two offense robots
the defender can deny their opponents the capture OR deprive their opponents of 4-5 high goals

Based on this, playing defense will likely be advantageous for the top few alliances, and the lower alliances will need to have all three robots on offense to keep up with captures.
This simulation is obviously an over-simplification, ignoring autonomous goals and scaling points, but it gives a decent sense for the scoring ability of these alliances and how viable defense will be.

[XaulZan11]

There's been a couple teams showcasing their new 2 ball autonomous modes. Is there any team (that doesn't have a consistent 1 ball) planning a defensive autonomous mode? I think it would be cool (and valuable) to see a team drive over the defense, drop their ball off and then driving back to the midline to disrupt an opponents 2 ball auto.

[Kevin Leonard]

There's been a couple teams showcasing their new 2 ball autonomous modes. Is there any team (that doesn't have a consistent 1 ball) planning a defensive autonomous mode? I think it would be cool (and valuable) to see a team drive over the defense, drop their ball off and then driving back to the midline to disrupt an opponents 2 ball auto.

Alternatively, don't start with a ball, and first thing go and pick up the center ball.

That being said, teams often show things prior to competition that don't work while in the competition. We'll see if these autonomous modes actually work, and whether all the teams will be showing up on their A-game (they so rarely do).

I'm excited for another great IRI!

[Cash4587]

We will likely have a 2 ball block ready for IRI. It is easy for us to do with our robot needing no modification to implement dropping the ball, then picking up the one on the center line.

[Liam Fay]

My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806

[Banderoonies]

Anyone know where IRI will be webcast from?

[Collin Fultz]

Anyone know where IRI will be webcast from?

http://livestream.com/indianafirst (http://livestream.com/indianafirst)

[BrennanB]

0-1 - 5 ball autons will go 5/5.

0 - 5 ball autos will affect the outcome of the match.

#predictions

[Kevin Leonard]

My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806

Results? :P

[Richard Wallace]

Results? :P

I predict the winning IRI alliance will include one team from Canada and one team from Michigan.

And one team from Indiana.

[Rangel(kf7fdb)]

Winner Prediction:
195-330-503-1086

[Liam Fay]

Results? :P

My bad.

2056 118 1024 868 W
133 195 2451 494 F
1241 3620 3130 5460 SF
225 179 3824 71 SF
67 1114 2052 4587 QF
330 16 27 3641 QF
2481 33 217 5254 QF
3683 2771 2013 1806 QF

It's not very exciting, but with IRI's alliance rules, it's what makes sense to me.

[Kevin Leonard]

My bad.

2056 118 1024 868 W
133 195 2451 494 F
1241 3620 3130 5460 SF
225 179 3824 71 SF
67 1114 2052 4587 QF
330 16 27 3641 QF
2481 33 217 5254 QF
3683 2771 2013 1806 QF

It's not very exciting, but with IRI's alliance rules, it's what makes sense to me.
Boringggg
Same alliances- MORE EXCITING RESULTS

2056 118 1024 868 SF
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587 W
330 16 27 3641 SF
2481 33 217 5254 F
3683 2771 2013 1806

133 and 195 get upset in the quarterfinals by 2481 and 33, and the 2481 alliance proceeds to sweep through the semis relatively uncontested . 4587 had been having difficulty with their 2-ball auto routine, but they pull it out in the semis and barely defeat the powerful #1 seed of 2056 and 118 when 118's 2 ball unexpectedly fails!

The finals are close, and in game 1, 4587's autonomous advantage is the difference maker. In game 2, the 7 seed switches 5254 in, who had been spending all of eliminations developing a counter-auton to 4587. They win this match by the narrowest of margins.

Finals 3 sees 2481-33-5254 against 67-1114-4587 again, and 5254 succeeds at taking the ball off the sideline from 4587, but then gets stuck on the moat during autonomous and misses their shot (It's only happened once this season, but God knows the time it would happen again would be IRI finals).
5254 dislodges themselves, but the point difference in autonomous was enough, and the 5 seed takes IRI 2016.

[jtrv]

My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806

In what world does 1114 get picked before 2481 or 330? I'd argue that 2481 is one of, if not the, best teams this year...

[Kevin Leonard]

In what world does 1114 get picked before 2481 or 330? I'd argue that 2481 is one of, if not the, best teams this year...

In the world where this is IRI and anything can happen. I'd argue 1114 was one of the best teams this year as well, and 1114 has a history of showing up strong to IRI. They've been on the 1st seeded alliance at iri for the past 3 years, and they won IRI in 2 of the past 4 years.

Additionally, these are just his predictions- maybe he has 2481 declining so they can form their own alliance or something. Who would have predicted that 1730 would seed first at 2015 IRI, or that the 8 seed would advance to semis?
Anything can happen at IRI!

[jtrv]

In the world where this is IRI and anything can happen. I'd argue 1114 was one of the best teams this year as well, and 1114 has a history of showing up strong to IRI. They've been on the 1st seeded alliance at iri for the past 3 years, and they won IRI in 2 of the past 4 years.

Additionally, these are just his predictions- maybe he has 2481 declining so they can form their own alliance or something. Who would have predicted that 1730 would seed first at 2015 IRI, or that the 8 seed would advance to semis?
Anything can happen at IRI!

Fair points. Hmm. I probably need to ease up on some expectations this year.

[thatprogrammer]

Fair points. Hmm. I probably need to ease up on some expectations this year.
Also, there is no real way to tell how good teams will be at IRI. Some teams get much better due to hardware improvements and driver practice while others get worse due to a lack of driver practice before the event.

[efoote868]

Also, there is no real way to tell how good teams will be at IRI. Some teams get much better due to hardware improvements and driver practice while others get worse due to a lack of driver practice before the event.

And there are at least a few teams that use IRI as driver practice / try outs to replace graduating seniors on the drive team.

[Kellen Hill]

Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot ;)

[Kevin Leonard]

Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot ;)

OH SHOOT SON

[Jack S.]

Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot ;)

Honestly though, what are those teams thinking? What a stupid idea. ;)

[fishing_cat]

Using pre scouting data that we collected for IRI, I based these seeds off of the 4536 scouting database, and furthermore based it off of the teams Teleop Tower Decrease at champs or last event played. I then mocked up how it would work, if I was picking bots for all teams, and included some bias that might happen as well. Overall this was quite fun! Here is my mockup of how it would look like:

179 - 195 - 330 - 1640 W
3683 - 1241 - 1806 - 233 QF
3641 - 2481 - 1114 - 2771 QF
1024 - 67 - 2052 - 910 SF
118 - 2056 - 217 - 2502 QF
494 - 868 - 16 - 1405 F
5460 - 2451 - 3130 - 2826 SF
4039 - 4587 - 27 - 1718 QF

179 - 195 - 330 - 1640
179 had averaged around 7 balls in teleop at champs according to the stats, so they get ranked #1, they pick up the 3rd ranked robot, 195, because it's 195. Then in the second round of picks, they choose 330 because they could play defense with their arm mechanism, and you know, they won Champs as well. Last pick of alliance selection they choose 1640, a nice bot with a scaler, and can shoot well.

3683 - 1241 - 1806 - 233
3683, one of the best low goal and defensive bots around ranked 2nd having weakened the tower with around 6.74 balls per match at Champs. They pick their Canadian friends 1241, because of how well the team plays with any team (and bias). In the second round they pick 1806, a team with a nice shooter and robot that can overcome almost any blocker. Finally they pick 233, another low goal bot, that will just be there as a backup defense bot, just in case 3683 losses their blocking ability.

3641 - 2481 - 1114 - 2771
3641 ranked 4th after the fictional quals, decreasing the tower by around 6.43 at Champs. They decide to pick the beasts that are 2481, the Champs at Champs. During the second round of picks, they decide to go with 1114, who finally is tuned to 99% perfection of not choking. Last but not least, they pick 2771, another bot that, when undefended, can single handedly drop 12 boulders in the tower. They pick them for defense with their intake that drops bounders into the shooter.

1024 - 67 - 2052 - 910
1024 ranked 5th putting around 6.38 boulders into the tower at Champs. They decide to go with a machine similar to 1678, and go with 67, the Mildly HOT team, if you base their number off of Fahrenheit. Their second pick is 2052, the team that knocked them out at the Carson finals. Finally they pick 910, The Foley Freeze, to play defense (And to cool down the HOT teams motors after matches). They played defense on Carver for the finals, so they know the ropes.

118 - 2056 - 217 - 2502
118 ranked 10th with 5.99, but jumped to the 5th spot because of inter picking. They pick 20566, their GTR-E buddies. 2056 was picked low because of how easily it is to block their shooter from the outerworks. They then pick 217 because it’s a tall bot, a good shooter, and they could possibly triple hang. Their last pick is 2502, a batter shooter and can play some great defense (and hang) and was the backup bot for 2056 at 2015 IRI (which they won). 2056 has an alliance that can mesh with their drive team very well, and might make it to Semis tbh.

494 - 868 - 16 - 1405
I personally like this alliance because of one thing that I say to jajabinx124 (https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/member.php?u=82815) over and over again, ‘swerve drive wins championships’. 494 ranked 11th, but got seeded 6th after inter picking. They pick 868 because of their new 2 ball auto and 494’s swerve drive that won’t interfere with it. The second bot they pick is 16 because of swerve drive, shooting, defense capability, and scaling. Last they pick up a great, if not the best defense bot, 1405, to round out this alliance.

5460 - 2451 - 3130 - 2826
5460 ranked 12th, but now is the 7th alliance captain. They pick one of the best catapult teams out there, and almost undefendable from the outerworks, 2451. In the second round of picking they get 3130, another great catapult team with a tape measure scaler that is sure to wow some folks. Both 2451 and 3130 were knocked out in Tesla in the semis, on different sides of the bracket. The last pick they go for is a defensive bot, none other than 2826, looking to win at least one event this year.

4039 - 4587 - 27 - 1718
4039 ranked 16th overall, with a teleop tower decrease at 5.87 at champs, but got to be the 8th alliance captain. They pick up a steal, with 4587, a Texas team with 2 ball auto. They then pick up a team that can do the sally port, with 27 and with a heavy machine, could play hard defense. They then pick up 1718, another nice bot that won MSC with 27. This alliance wishes to out shoot the #1 alliance with this alliance.

[Chris is me]

5254 succeeds at taking the ball off the sideline from 4587, but then gets stuck on the moat during autonomous and misses their shot (It's only happened once this season,

Don't worry, since Shaky-Breaky didn't qualify for IRI this year, so you won't have to deal with Shaker Luck this time. Bad things only happen when you're paired with 2791.

(But who predicts their own team going on to the finals? :P)

[TheBoulderite]

A little off topic, but does anyone know when the schedule is released?

[TDav540]

1. 2056 - 195 - 2481 - 3130 W
2. 133 - 330 - 2052 - 2614 F
3. 1241 - 118 - 1806 - 1747 SF
4. 2451 - 33 - 27 - 3824 QF
5. 3683 - 179 - 2590 - 868 SF
6. 3620 - 217 - 1619 - 233 QF
7. 16 - 67 - 1024 - 1114 QF
8. 225 - 4587 - 2468 - 1405 QF

[BrennanB]

1. 2056 - 195 - 2481 - 3130 W
2. 133 - 330 - 2052 - 2614 F
3. 1241 - 118 - 1806 - 1747 SF
4. 2451 - 33 - 27 - 3824 QF
5. 3683 - 179 - 2590 - 868 SF
6. 3620 - 217 - 1619 - 233 QF
7. 16 - 67 - 1024 - 1114 QF
8. 225 - 4587 - 2468 - 1405 QF

Stacked :ahh: :ahh: :ahh:

[TDav540]

Stacked :ahh: :ahh: :ahh:

Someones gonna slip through the draft and become and awesome pickup. Always happens :)

[TheBoulderite]

1. 2056 - 195 - 2481 - 3130

If any alliance is to break 300 points, it would be this one.

[Liam Fay]

Someones gonna slip through the draft and become and awesome pickup. Always happens :)

I don't think the world champion is going to be the one to slip through the draft...

I want it to happen, though, so I can see that score break 300.

[TDav540]

I don't think the world champion is going to be the one to slip through the draft...

I want it to happen, though, so I can see that score break 300.

I was referring to 3130, but if want to talk about 2481, then the teams above them (in selection position) are 195, 330, 118 (all slam dunks), 33, 179 (high scorers with climbers), 217 (tall robot, plus climber), 67 (also excellent), and 4587 (who has a two-ball auto). While I'm not saying 2481 is definitely worse than those teams, it wouldn't surprise me to see them fall beneath each of these teams.

[mipo0707]

2056 and 118 BACK AT IT AGAIN WITH THE WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Whatever]

We get a palindrome alliance.

Some Possibilities:
33,1747,133


So close on qual match 20.... There is no reason the software couldn't have swapped 20 in qual match 20 with 33 in qual match 22.

[Liam Fay]

To me, it looks like the teams with the best combination of good robot and good schedule are, in no specific order, 2056, 1241, 67, 179, and 118. I wouldn't be surprised if the top 8 includes all 5 of those teams.

[Rangel(kf7fdb)]

To me, it looks like the teams with the best combination of good robot and good schedule are, in no specific order, 2056, 1241, 67, 179, and 118. I wouldn't be surprised if the top 8 includes all 5 of those teams.

I wouldn't underestimate 330. Though they aren't the absolute fastest scorers, but they are probably one of if not the best poachers of 2016. A skill that isn't wildly talked about that isn't easily measured. The pressure they put on that secret passage can be a deal breaker.

[Liam Fay]

I wouldn't underestimate 330. Though they aren't the absolute fastest scorers, but they are probably one of if not the best poachers of 2016. A skill that isn't wildly talked about that isn't easily measured. The pressure they put on that secret passage can be a deal breaker.

Oh certainly. What I see, though, when looking at their schedule is that they face a bit of an uphill battle - Q66 has them against 2590/16/118, Q89 is against 67/503/3683, Q41 is against 4587/3130/217.

[AdamHeard]

Total BS top 16 off OPR and some assumptions....

Rank Team RP AS
1 2056 34 476.1666667
2 118 34 471.9
3 179 34 445.0333333
4 67 34 438.7
5 1241 34 437.2
6 2451 32 467.3666667
7 195 32 440.8333333
8 225 32 437.4
9 3130 32 437.2666667
10 2771 32 437.1666667
11 133 32 429.8
12 5254 32 428
13 3641 32 418.9
14 1747 32 411.7666667
15 3620 30 448
16 1114 30 444.4666667

[Abhishek R]

I predict we're gonna see a very interesting top 8 that has at least 3 big surprises - based on the predictions I've read in this thread.

[Whatever]

Since I have spent an unhealthy amount of time looking at this I figured I might as well share.

Other close calls on palindromes:

Qual match 9 - 20/1310/2502 - Would need to fly in 525
Qual match 33 - 624/3130/33 - Needed 330
Qual match 48 - 1640/503/461 - Needed 20, 330, 3130, 1310
Qual match 62 - 45/3015/5254 - Why did 25 have to drop out?
Qual match 67 - 179/3130/71 - One number off (1619 is in qual match 68)
Qual match 81 - 1746/868/71 - Not quite the right order

[XaulZan11]

Is 868 driving for 1747 or is 1747 just wearing 868 shirts?

[ctt956]

[snip]

Finals 7. THE deciding match. 179 keeps 2826 on the field, while 2451 remains on the field for 16. 179 and 1619 break out the alligator and bucket of water once more, while 195's alliance prepares for the match. The countdown begins. "3...2...1...GO!" says the MC. As soon as the match starts, no robot goes for the high goal. 179 and 1619 fill the moat and place the alligator into it. The crowd is stunned by the other alliance's response as 225 turns into a mechanical dragon and takes flight. As soon as teleop starts, 225 goes for 2826, preparing to breath a ball of fire. Then, 2826's driveteam presses a button, and their robot turns completely into water. 225 is unable to burn up Wave, and goes for their tower instead. No matter how many boulders 1619 shoots, they are burned up by 225. The field reset crew notices and runs off to open more boxes of boulders. At this point, the MC gives up on trying to narrate the match. Seeing that their alliance needs help, 233 runs to the field with their robot, enables it, and tosses it onto the field to assist their team. 16 does the same thing moments later. 233 launches Greek fire into the tower, causing the electricity to short and the tower health lights to go off. Meanwhile, the alligator in the moat attempts to eat 195's robot to no avail, as their robot is alligator-proof. 2451 seems to be the only team that is successfully scoring points. The final thirty seconds begin, and 16 stops on the field. Their drivetrain has broken again, and people from the Bomb Squad start freaking out. 179, 1619, and 2826 climb the tower, with 233 getting on the batter under 179. 195 and 2451 make some last minute shots, and 195 climbs. 2451 climbs, and makes their endgame shot. 225 has stopped, their driveteam preparing for something truly unbelievable. With five seconds to go, 225's dragon grabs 16's robot and flies to the top of the tower with it. They set it down and transform back into a robot. With one second left, 225 grabs onto the tower and pulls up high enough to scale.

It is deathly silent in the room as everyone tries to process what just happened. The anticipation of the score keeps the room quiet, as everyone is on the edge of their seats to find out what it is. The final score arrives. By a difference of five points, Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire wins the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational, with a final score of 295-300. The crowd goes wild, and no one can believe anything that just happened.

When the finals and awards ceremony conclude, the teams say a teary goodbye to each other, knowing that many of them will be attending a different championship and will never see them again.

Those are my predictions. What are yours?

TL;DR: Nope. Read the whole thing.

I'm not sure 233 would park on the batter under 179, as I don't think it would count as a challenge anyway, let alone with four robots on the field. Unless there's an exception made...

I also predict that at some point, 910 will fill a moat with liquid nitrogen, rendering any robots that cross it with rubber/plastic wheels and/or tires undrivable.

[Whatever]

You can challenge underneath a hanging robot and get the 5 points, but to capture all three robots need to be on a unique face.

This came up on Galileo Quarter 4 - match 1.

[Liam Fay]

I'm willing to bet that Q97 will be the highest scoring qualification of IRI, and quite possibly 2016. 2056/118/4587 is how you break a record.

[efoote868]

Is 868 driving for 1747 or is 1747 just wearing 868 shirts?

I don't know the drivers for 1747, but 868 drivers are wearing 1747 shirts.

[jtrv]

W. 2481, 67, 2468, 3620
F. 195, 133, 494, 5254
SF. 330, 118, 27, 1619
SF. 2056, 1241, 1023, 217
QF. 225, 1806, 1746, 2590
QF. 2451, 16, 4587, 20
QF. 3683, 179, 2052, 1718
QF. 3130, 33, 1024, 2338

I'm a big fan of 1114, but 2016 just isn't their year.

oh my god i'm so bad at this

[AdamHeard]

Anyone have OPR calculated for the event?

Still lots of BS and hand having, but current predictions are;

1 2056 33 405.7
2 118 32 422.3333333
3 3620 31 373.3
4 195 30 401.4666667
5 1114 28 417.6
6 217 28 412.0666667
7 2771 28 343.2666667
8 45 28 337.5
9 1619 27 375.3666667
10 5254 27 346.2
11 3683 27 335.5
12 2052 26 419.1666667
13 67 26 414.7333333
14 2451 26 395.4666667
15 2481 26 376.6666667
16 3641 26 364.2333333

Lots of matches could go either way though.

[BrennanB]

Thoughts after day 1.

Secret Passage Abuse - Over and over I see teams getting destroyed by letting balls pile up in their secret passage. It's never a good idea to get stuck in a situation where you have 6 balls behind the glass. Throw them out far of your secret passage! Don't let them clog up! One match I saw 179 was unloading like 12 balls because they were all in the secret passageway and nobody stopped them.

Neutral secret passage defense - I saw you 4039! While it may have not been executed to a "T" it definitely made an impact. Sitting in front of the secret passage and keeping those balls in the secret passage is super strong. Force them to try to get into the area, reduce them to one robot scoring at a time. Block them from getting in/out. And if they don't come free balls for your scoring robots!

Notable teams

1405 - Causing the biggest courtyard havoc I have seen all season! Phenomenal play and stepping up your target selection since worlds. This team will be very scary to play against on the field in elims.

1241 - Not having the best of luck, and have hit some snags. Still putting up massive amounts of points. Will be curious to see when they get picked up.

195 - Best two ball auto at IRI, scoring left right and center.

3015 - Funny how two of the defensive players that I really noticed were on the world championship alliance. 3015 also seemingly making a huge impact on the field. Saw one match where they just slowed down EVERYTHING. Great work guys!

3683 - High ranked robot that just consistently gets the tower strength down. Pretty solid defense too. Hang is super reliable. Who ever said you needed to high goal to rank high?

[TheBoulderite]

I could see alliance selection/final rankings going a number of different ways tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see. Great job to all teams today, and good luck tomorrow!

Fun Fact: There were four matches today where at least one alliance scored over 200 points.

[AWoL]

Fun Fact: There were four matches today where at least one alliance scored over 200 points.

And we were in half of those. :P

In Q60, our alliance had a total of 22 high goals, so I'm saying a score over 300 is definitely possible in elims.

[TheBoulderite]

And we were in half of those. :P

In Q60, our alliance had a total of 22 high goals, so I'm saying a score over 300 is definitely possible in elims.

Agreed.

[ctt956]

I predict that alliances 2 and 6 will be the finalists!

[Brian Maher]

I predict that alliances 2 and 6 will be the finalists!

Not possible. The winners of 2/7 and 3/6 face off in semifinals.

[thatprogrammer]

W. 2481, 67, 2468, 3620
F. 195, 133, 494, 5254
SF. 330, 118, 27, 1619
SF. 2056, 1241, 1023, 217
QF. 225, 1806, 1746, 2590
QF. 2451, 16, 4587, 20
QF. 3683, 179, 2052, 1718
QF. 3130, 33, 1024, 2338

I'm a big fan of 1114, but 2016 just isn't their year.
I think 1114 did a bit better than you expected :rolleyes:

[Richard Wallace]

I think 1114 did a bit better than you expected :rolleyes:

Uh, yes. Simbotics didn't do much at IRI.

All they did was sweep their Saturday morning matches, seeding high enough to pick 195, 225 and 1405. Their alliance put up 70 in auton, 19 teleop high goals, and a triple scale in SF2-1. Then they did it again in SF2-2, for two consecutive record scores, beating our alliance by 50 pts each time. Not much.

If they had kept up that pace, the #1 alliance would have been in serious trouble. Smart move to have 33 play D in the finals.

[Karthik]

W. 2481, 67, 2468, 3620
F. 195, 133, 494, 5254
SF. 330, 118, 27, 1619
SF. 2056, 1241, 1023, 217
QF. 225, 1806, 1746, 2590
QF. 2451, 16, 4587, 20
QF. 3683, 179, 2052, 1718
QF. 3130, 33, 1024, 2338

I'm a big fan of 1114, but 2016 just isn't their year.

I think 1114 did a bit better than you expected :rolleyes:

http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/1079ishot.com/files/2014/06/Lipton_Kermit-630x422.png

[efoote868]

But Karthik, that so totally is your business!
:p

[PatrickSJ]

I think 1114 did a bit better than you expected :rolleyes:

From where I was standing in the driver station during our semi-final matches against 1114's alliance, it sounded like the chains never stopped ringing. I still can't get that sound out of my head.

But for real, thanks to 67, 3683, and 5254 for some awesome matches! and congrats to 2056, 118, 33 and 4587 on the W!

[Brian Maher]

Smart move to have 33 play D in the finals.

It was really the only option for #1. I just watched the higher scoring semifinals match of each alliance again, and counted up teleop high goals for each robot:

2056: 6*
118: 5*
33: 5*
1114: 4
195: 10
225: 5

*Had a hard time seeing a bit of the match when the camera focused on the 1619/133 tipping debacle.
In addition, #2 had an additional scale over #1.
When both alliances run triple offense, math says that #2 outscores #1 (barring something as dramatic as 195's auto failing, which is not something to count on). By putting 33 on defense, they free up easy-to-grab boulders for 2056/118 to score, let's say, 3 extra goals (guesstimate). If 33 defending prevents #2 from scoring 3 boulders, it is worth it. With 1114 shooting only from the batter and 195 preferring a (reasonably defendable) shot in the left courtyard (not that they don't shoot well from other locations, they just do their best in that one), taking three high goals off this alliances doesn't seem like a particular difficult task (with some skilled driving, of course).

Considering that:

Alliance #2 scored 13 and 14 teleop high goals in finals; under 33's defense, they scored 5-6 fewer goals
Alliance #1 scored 18 teleop high goals in both finals matches, 1-2 more than with 33 playing offense, so 2056/118 scored 5-6 (!) more goals

having 33 play offense was not only a smart idea, but necessary for #1 to be able to outscore #2 and take the win. Props to 33 for being willing to play defense and the alliance as a whole for realizing the advantage it would confer.

These eliminations matches leave me with one big question: why did 2056 choose 118 over 195? Not that the Robonauts don't have a phenomenal robot, but looking at scouting data, 195 seems to have been the bot with both more consistency and a higher ceiling, especially considering 2-ball auto. I think it may have been due to 2056 playing with 118 earlier in the year at GTR-East, but I'd love some insight as to why they chose the way they did.

[Mike Schreiber]

It was really the only option for #1. I just watched the higher scoring semifinals match of each alliance again, and counted up teleop high goals for each robot:

2056: 6*
118: 5*
33: 5*
1114: 4
195: 10
225: 5

*Had a hard time seeing a bit of the match when the camera focused on the 1619/133 tipping debacle.
In addition, #2 had an additional scale over #1.
When both alliances run triple offense, math says that #2 outscores #1 (barring something as dramatic as 195's auto failing, which is not something to count on). By putting 33 on defense, they free up easy-to-grab boulders for 2056/118 to score, let's say, 3 extra goals (guesstimate). If 33 defending prevents #2 from scoring 3 boulders, it is worth it. With 1114 shooting only from the batter and 195 preferring a (reasonably defendable) shot in the left courtyard (not that they don't shoot well from other locations, they just do their best in that one), taking three high goals off this alliances doesn't seem like a particular difficult task.

Considering that:

Alliance #2 scored 13 and 14 teleop high goals in finals; under 33's defense, they scored 5-6 fewer goals
Alliance #1 scored 18 teleop high goals in both finals matches, 1-2 more than with 33 playing offense, so 2056/118 scored 5-6 (!) more goals

having 33 play offense was not only a smart idea, but necessary for #1 to be able to outscore #2 and take the win.

These eliminations matches leave me with one big question: why did 2056 choose 118 over 195? Looking at scouting data, 195 seems to have been the bot that was both more consistent and had a higher ceiling, especially considering 2-ball auto. I think it may have been due to 2056 playing with 118 earlier in the year at GTR-East, but I'd love some insight as to why they chose the way they did.

This is a good analysis and very similar to the discussion we had about whether or not to put 3683 back in in our second SF match.

This worked for alliance 1 because 118 and 2056 were essentially boulder limited in scoring - having 33 scoring didn't help since the team was still limited by the number of boulders they could get. It actually helped since they had less traffic.

On the contrary I think we needed all 3 robots scoring to even have a chance at keeping up with their 3 scoring.

Thanks to 3620, 3683, and 5254 for the fun run to SFs.

[thatprogrammer]

These eliminations matches leave me with one big question: why did 2056 choose 118 over 195? Not that the Robonauts don't have a phenomenal robot, but looking at scouting data, 195 seems to have been the bot with both more consistency and a higher ceiling, especially considering 2-ball auto. I think it may have been due to 2056 playing with 118 earlier in the year at GTR-East, but I'd love some insight as to why they chose the way they did.
NOTE: NOT on 118, this is pure speculation.
They may have not picked 195 for the same reason they chose to make 33 defend them... 195 is pretty susceptible to defense and struggles to make shots when pressured with a great defender. 118 is pretty much unblockable (I think a 15 inch extension can stop them) and seems to work better with defense on them than 195 does.

[bkahl]

These eliminations matches leave me with one big question: why did 2056 choose 118 over 195? Not that the Robonauts don't have a phenomenal robot, but looking at scouting data, 195 seems to have been the bot with both more consistency and a higher ceiling, especially considering 2-ball auto. I think it may have been due to 2056 playing with 118 earlier in the year at GTR-East, but I'd love some insight as to why they chose the way they did.

NOTE: NOT on 118, this is pure speculation.
They may have not picked 195 for the same reason they chose to make 33 defend them... 195 is pretty susceptible to defense and struggles to make shots when pressured with a great defender. 118 is pretty much unblockable (I think a 15 inch extension can stop them) and seems to work better with defense on them than 195 does.

I was in Indy this past weekend helping 195 a bit. My father is still a mentor and a close friend is the Drive Coach for the team. I was somewhat involved in strategy and picking talks.

I think Ahad is partially correct here.

118 definitely has a higher release point than 195 for the OW shot, making 118 a little less defend-able.

From a short conversation with 2056's scouts, they definitely brought up this fact- asking 195 what their plan was against a 15" overhang defender. Had defense from the OW become an issue, a 15" buffer mechanism can be used by 195 to keep the defender at bay.

118 also worked with 2056 earlier in the season. Chemistry was already there.

There were no hard feelings anywhere- 2056 informed 195 before alliance selections of their pick in order to help 195 better prepare a pick-list.

At the end of the day- 2056 won with 118. You can't really fault the pick if it helped contribute to a win.

There was A LOT of mutual respect between the 8 teams in the finals. Congratulations were given all around.

[ASD20]

It was really the only option for #1. I just watched the higher scoring semifinals match of each alliance again, and counted up teleop high goals for each robot:

2056: 6*
118: 5*
33: 5*
1114: 4
195: 10
225: 5

*Had a hard time seeing a bit of the match when the camera focused on the 1619/133 tipping debacle.
In addition, #2 had an additional scale over #1.
When both alliances run triple offense, math says that #2 outscores #1 (barring something as dramatic as 195's auto failing, which is not something to count on). By putting 33 on defense, they free up easy-to-grab boulders for 2056/118 to score, let's say, 3 extra goals (guesstimate). If 33 defending prevents #2 from scoring 3 boulders, it is worth it. With 1114 shooting only from the batter and 195 preferring a (reasonably defendable) shot in the left courtyard (not that they don't shoot well from other locations, they just do their best in that one), taking three high goals off this alliances doesn't seem like a particular difficult task (with some skilled driving, of course).

Considering that:

Alliance #2 scored 13 and 14 teleop high goals in finals; under 33's defense, they scored 5-6 fewer goals
Alliance #1 scored 18 teleop high goals in both finals matches, 1-2 more than with 33 playing offense, so 2056/118 scored 5-6 (!) more goals

having 33 play offense was not only a smart idea, but necessary for #1 to be able to outscore #2 and take the win. Props to 33 for being willing to play defense and the alliance as a whole for realizing the advantage it would confer.

These eliminations matches leave me with one big question: why did 2056 choose 118 over 195? Not that the Robonauts don't have a phenomenal robot, but looking at scouting data, 195 seems to have been the bot with both more consistency and a higher ceiling, especially considering 2-ball auto. I think it may have been due to 2056 playing with 118 earlier in the year at GTR-East, but I'd love some insight as to why they chose the way they did.

I think 2056 vs 195 (both IRI and Einstein) will be remembered as one of the all time greatest examples of the power of defense.

[ArthurF]

This is a good analysis and very similar to the discussion we had about whether or not to put 3683 back in in our second SF match.

This worked for alliance 1 because 118 and 2056 were essentially boulder limited in scoring - having 33 scoring didn't help since the team was still limited by the number of boulders they could get. It actually helped since they had less traffic.

On the contrary I think we needed all 3 robots scoring to even have a chance at keeping up with their 3 scoring.

Thanks to 3620, 3683, and 5254 for the fun run to SFs.

Unless you can outscore the opponents (which in that case you could never do especially while missing the balls and have difficulties in climb) the only chance of wining this year game is deployment of the very capable defensive robot (analysis of the finals seams to completely conform this statement). 3620 - the captain of the third alliance made fatal decision of not playing 3683 which resulted in loss of semifinals. The third alliance had real chance to get all the way to the finals of the IRI2016.
I am glad we attended the competition. I personally have learned some internals of tactics associated with the alliance selection during IRI competition (which in my personal opinion are scored in very low on the ‘gracious professionalism’ scale). I guess the exposure early on in life to harsh real-life experiences (winning by all means is the priority #1 to some teams out there) together with the mission statement of FIRST is what makes this program great.
Thank you all it was an honor to be participate in the games.

[Karthik]

I personally have learned some internals of tactics associated with the alliance selection during IRI competition (which in my personal opinion are scored in very low on the ‘gracious professionalism’ scale). I guess the exposure early on in life to harsh real-life experiences (winning by all means is the priority #1 to some teams out there) together with the mission statement of FIRST is what makes this program great.


I'm really curious about the tactics that you saw and what upset you about them. This is probably something worth discussing so other teams can learn from your experiences.

[jtrv]

http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/1079ishot.com/files/2014/06/Lipton_Kermit-630x422.png

I regret doubting you, Mr. Karthik.

I think 1114 did a bit better than you expected :rolleyes:

Yeah, I was wrong, and I know I was. I used a prediction model for this, and this was the first iteration and its first attempt at guessing results. Obviously, it needs some adjustments, and I didn't expect it to get anything right the first time.

Plus, some others made some just as bold predictions...

[ArthurF]

I'm really curious about the tactics that you saw and what upset you about them. This is probably something worth discussing so other teams can learn from your experiences.

I have probably already crossed the line here so I would rather keep this 'intimate observation' to myself.
But it goes among the slightly modified version of : "if you can't beat them then join them". Having 4 teams on alliance gives you ability to take advantage of the above statement to the extends previously not realized by me.

[ASD20]

I have probably already crossed the line here so I would rather keep this 'intimate observation' to myself.
But it goes among the slightly modified version of : "if you can't beat them then join them". Having 4 teams on alliance gives you ability to take advantage of the above statement to the extends previously not realized by me.

You should not name specific teams, but please explain in less cryptic way.

[ArthurF]

You should not name specific teams, but please explain in less cryptic way.

Can't be less cryptic because people are already 'correcting me' for using team names. Looks like this forum is for 'happy thoughts' only. Let it be this way then.
Just for the record ... I have nothing against FRC nor IRI.

I disagreed with someones statement of the strategy and apparently it is not allowed here. Please be reassured that you will not hear from me again.

[Ty Tremblay]

Can't be less cryptic because people are already 'correcting me' for using team names. Looks like this forum is for 'happy thoughts' only. Let it be this way then.
Just for the record ... I have nothing against FRC nor IRI.

I disagreed with someones statement of the strategy and apparently it is not allowed here. Please be reassured that you will not hear from me again.

The people saying its not allowed are wrong, but it's not like you had to listen to them in the first place. They're on the other side of the internet.

[Richard Wallace]

Looks like this forum is for 'happy thoughts' only. ...

I disagreed with someones statement of the strategy and apparently it is not allowed here. Please be reassured that you will not hear from me again.I want to hear from you again.

The people saying its not allowed are wrong, but it's not like you had to listen to them in the first place. They're on the other side of the internet.Ty is completely correct. You have the same right to express thoughts as anyone on CD, or the entire internet for that matter.

[mmorauske]

First of all let me thank 67, 5254 and 3683 for joining us in the IRI playoffs. I can't help but feel that some of these comments are directed at me. If so, I am sincerely sorry if I offended anyone during the selection and playoff process. Monday morning quarterbacking leads me to think that MAYBE playing a defensive bot during the semi's would have changed the outcome. Just didn't think that we had the firepower to keep up with 2 bots. I sincerely hope that myself or our team did not leave a bad impression on anyone. We were ecstatic to receive our first invitation to IRI and had a blast the whole weekend. I think the highlight was our Q4 matches. So from myself and the whole 3620 team......thank you to our alliance and everyone that participated at IRI. It was a great experience that we will remember for many years to come.

[wesbass23]

Can't be less cryptic because people are already 'correcting me' for using team names. Looks like this forum is for 'happy thoughts' only. Let it be this way then.
Just for the record ... I have nothing against FRC nor IRI.

I disagreed with someones statement of the strategy and apparently it is not allowed here. Please be reassured that you will not hear from me again.

You could always make an anonymous account and start a new thread, that seems to go over well with most of CD.

[bkahl]

You could always make an anonymous account and start a new thread, that seems to go over well with most of CD.

https://media.giphy.com/media/26AHt0TvAdfEUVxmM/giphy.gif

[PayneTrain]

Can't be less cryptic because people are already 'correcting me' for using team names. Looks like this forum is for 'happy thoughts' only.

*checks personal post history*

no, it's not

[Alex Cormier]

I have probably already crossed the line here so I would rather keep this 'intimate observation' to myself.
But it goes among the slightly modified version of : "if you can't beat them then join them". Having 4 teams on alliance gives you ability to take advantage of the above statement to the extends previously not realized by me.

I don't think it's hard to figure out what he's saying. At least in my mind.

[pwnageNick]

I don't think it's hard to figure out what he's saying. At least in my mind.

I think it is. I was there for the weekend and somewhat around what was going on leading into alliance selection so I'm not sure what he's talking about as I didn't notice anything wrong or out of the ordinary from a standard event.

[EmileH]

you know it's the offseason when every single remotely controversial thread on CD is going to crap

congratulations, denizens

[Aidan Cox]

you know it's the offseason when every single remotely controversial thread on CD is going to crap

congratulations, denizens

Next time on The Real Housewives of Chief Delphi

[Kevin Leonard]

Can't be less cryptic because people are already 'correcting me' for using team names. Looks like this forum is for 'happy thoughts' only. Let it be this way then.
Just for the record ... I have nothing against FRC nor IRI.

I disagreed with someones statement of the strategy and apparently it is not allowed here. Please be reassured that you will not hear from me again.

I think the decisions made in semifinals about "who to play and who not to" were difficult, nuanced decisions, and giving up the firepower of any of the offensive robots on that alliance was a difficult decision to make.

I've been thinking quite a bit about how we could have played that differently. However I think the reason we lost has a lot more to do with our autonomous deficit and smart defense placements from our opponents than anything else.

5254 had been having some weird issues with our ramparts auto routine on the practice field, so placing the Sallyport in 3, the CDF in 4, and the Ramparts in 5 forced us to run our autonomous from position 2, where we wouldn't make the autonomous shot. 67 and 3620 were also inconsistently making autonomous, and 195 was making their 2 ball look like it was easy.

In addition, the CDF in 4 forced 5254 to take an extra few seconds to get into position to shoot every time we cycled over the ramparts. We regularly came out of autonomous 30-40 points behind, and even if we matched the #2 alliance in teleoperated scoring, and we got all three of our climbs up, we would lose based on auto alone.

I think our #3 alliance had a high ceiling- in that if we all made auto and climbed and hit our teleop shots, we could have matched that #2 alliance or exceeded them, but we were too inconsistent.

3683 might have been able to shut down 1114, and maybe even slow 195, but then we're still about even in teleop scoring and down after autonomous.

Thanks to 3620, 67, and 3683 for selecting us. The QF4 matches were some of the most exciting matches I've ever been a part of.

[PatrickSJ]

The QF4 matches were some of the most exciting matches I've ever been a part of.
+1

[Mike Schreiber]

Unless you can outscore the opponents (which in that case you could never do especially while missing the balls and have difficulties in climb) the only chance of wining this year game is deployment of the very capable defensive robot (analysis of the finals seams to completely conform this statement). 3620 - the captain of the third alliance made fatal decision of not playing 3683 which resulted in loss of semifinals. The third alliance had real chance to get all the way to the finals of the IRI2016.
I am glad we attended the competition. I personally have learned some internals of tactics associated with the alliance selection during IRI competition (which in my personal opinion are scored in very low on the ‘gracious professionalism’ scale). I guess the exposure early on in life to harsh real-life experiences (winning by all means is the priority #1 to some teams out there) together with the mission statement of FIRST is what makes this program great.
Thank you all it was an honor to be participate in the games.

Please PM me, I think I know specifically what you're referring to, but I'd like to confirm. Let's look at this as a learning experience. I can certainly say I don't think any decisions were made out of ego or malice.

I think the decisions made in semifinals about "who to play and who not to" were difficult, nuanced decisions, and giving up the firepower of any of the offensive robots on that alliance was a difficult decision to make.

Maybe we were wrong, maybe not. I still can't say with any certainty that we would have won in any configuration.

[TheBoulderite]

Missed the eliminations because of a backpacking trip. Here are my thoughts:

Congratulations to teams 2056, 118, 33, and 4587 for winning IRI! 2056, winning IRI four years in a row is very, very hard, but you've done it. Our alliance was honored to play against yours in the semis, and your win was well deserved. Also, great job to the finalist alliance of 1114, 195, 225, and 1405!

Thank you to our wonderful alliance partners 1241, 133, and 868. We were honored to be an alliance captain at IRI for the first time in our history, and we were excited to have such a strong alliance. Thanks for the ride to the semis, guys!

IRI was great this year, and I look forward to next year already. See you all then!

[EmileH]

We had an awesome time at IRI! Check out our 2016 IRI Recap video. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLkuPQgr9F8)

Unfortunately, we were not picked, however we want to thank all the teams who attended who showed us how to play at a higher level. Also, we want to thank the event organizers and volunteers who put on a wonderfully orchestrated and well-planned event. And lastly, our sponsors and parents, who helped make the trip possible.