Biggest upsets of 2016

[Caleb Sykes]

What were the biggest match upsets of 2016, qualification or playoff? Post your thoughts here.

Please do not post about a match your team won in unless that match has already been mentioned by someone else. If it really was a big upset, someone else will probably post about it.

I have been developing an Elo model for FRC (more to come soon), and I have attached the matches this model thought were the biggest upsets.

[Koko Ed]

The discussion starts and ends with this match. (https://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2016micmp_ef1m3)

[AlexanderLuke]

Not a match, but the entire 2016 Curie Division could be considered an upset. In every matchup on the bracket, the underdog came out on top. The eighth seed won the division. You can see the bracket at The Blue Alliance (https://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016cur).

[Jay O'Donnell]

The FLR alliance of 20, 639 and 1405 taking home the win. Particularly their semifinal set with 5254, 2791 and 2383.

[Sperkowsky]

The number 1 Alliance losing to the number 7 alliance on Newton.

[Richard Wallace]

The discussion starts and ends with this match. (https://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2016micmp_ef1m3)You are correct, sir. What a time for the Killer Bees' climber to jam!

[scott.smith]

The FLR alliance of 20, 639 and 1405 taking home the win. Particularly their semifinal set with 5254, 2791 and 2383.

Thanks for the shoutout! Also, we were part of the Curie upsets, but our win was not a significant upset itself.

[Liam Fay]

While 1241 and 610 winning together normally wouldn't qualify as an upset, the match that broke the 2056 streak counts in my book.

[TheBoulderite]

Our team led the only upset in the Quarterfinals of the Carson Division this year. With the help of 525, 4028, and 3352, we just barely edged out 2590, 225, 2067, and 11. Here's (https://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2016cars_qf3m1) the first and here's (https://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2016cars_qf3m2) the second.

[orangelight]

The discussion starts and ends with this match. (https://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2016micmp_ef1m3)

Ahh yes, the highlight of my season

[jajabinx124]

The number 1 Alliance losing to the number 7 alliance on Newton.

This has to be one of the biggest upset chain of the 2016 season in Newton. The 7th seed took down the 2nd seed in quarterfinals (1519, 118, 3309, 1676), took down the 3rd seed in semi-finals (67, 5172, 1477, 3481), and the 1st seed. (1241, 254, 1731 and 708)

While the 7th seed was certainly an offensive juggernaut of an alliance, during champs I wasn't predicting them to win the Newton division after alliance selection because so many other alliances look stacked as well.

Carson had it's upsets as well. As Boulderite mentioned, 7th seed took down the 2nd seed. 4th seed also took down the 1st seed and the 3rd seed to win the division.

[BaileyJoseph166]

Not a match, but the entire 2016 Curie Division could be considered an upset. In every matchup on the bracket, the underdog came out on top. The eighth seed won the division. You can see the bracket at The Blue Alliance (https://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016cur).

Not sure I wanted to be reminded of Curie division eliminations from this year...

[Hallry]

Not a match, but the entire 2016 Curie Division could be considered an upset. In every matchup on the bracket, the underdog came out on top. The eighth seed won the division. You can see the bracket at The Blue Alliance (https://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016cur).

Similarly, the 2016 Mt. Olive MAR District (https://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016njfla) had an almost perfect reverse bracket. Alliances 1, 2, 3, and 4 were knocked out in the Quarterfinals, Alliances 6 and 8 out in the Semis, and Alliance 5 losing to Alliance 7 in the Finals.

[frcguy]

Not sure I wanted to be reminded of Curie division eliminations from this year...

Same here :P

[Brian Maher]

The FLR alliance of 20, 639 and 1405 taking home the win. Particularly their semifinal set with 5254, 2791 and 2383.

Thanks for the shoutout! Also, we were part of the Curie upsets, but our win was not a significant upset itself.

+1. 20 truly constructed the best alliance possible and all three teams executed on it quite impressively. From the time alliance selection finished, I knew whoever won the first semifinal series would win the event.

Similarly, the 2016 Mt. Olive MAR District (https://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016njfla) had an almost perfect reverse bracket. Alliances 1, 2, 3, and 4 were knocked out in the Quarterfinals, Alliances 6 and 8 out in the Semis, and Alliance 5 losing to Alliance 7 in the Finals.

Let's not forget Bridgewater-Raritan (thebluealliance.com/event/2016njbri), where Mount Olive winners 1676 and 5624 reunited to take home a banner from the #7 spot (again), upsetting the #1 alliance in finals. 1676 played some quality defense and 5624 could take down the tower singlehandedly (even at Champs); they were quite the pairing. I get a kick out of the fact that 1257 brought them together at Mount Olive and then lost to them at Bridgewater.

[rhinobot]

Is no one going to mention Einstein Finals 3? 120-2481-330 vs. 1690-2056-1405, finals match 3 score was 225-225 and the champion title was awarded to teams 120-2481-330 for playing the cleaner match. (Both amazing alliances, by the way, but the crowd was in an uproar!)

[Chris is me]

Is no one going to mention Einstein Finals 3? 120-2481-330 vs. 1690-2056-1405, finals match 3 score was 225-225 and the champion title was awarded to teams 120-2481-330 for playing the cleaner match. (Both amazing alliances, by the way, but the crowd was in an uproar!)

"Upset" generally implies the underrated alliance won. Both alliances here were excellent, and it's hard to say one was heavily favored over the other to win the series.

[Caleb Sykes]

Here are the biggest playoff upsets for individual matches using my Elo model.

[rhinobot]

"Upset" generally implies the underrated alliance won. Both alliances here were excellent, and it's hard to say one was heavily favored over the other to win the series.

Ah well then I agree 100% with Curie playoffs

I was interpreting the term upset as "people were upset about it", carry on :cool:

[Caleb Sykes]

Ah well then I agree 100% with Curie playoffs

I was interpreting the term upset as "people were upset about it", carry on :cool:

Hahahaha
I wouldn't dare to open that can of worms.

[jajabinx124]

Here are the biggest playoff upsets for individual matches using my Elo model.

Wow, I didn't expect that semi-final match from the 2016 10,000 lakes regional to be on there. I'm surprised the win likelihood was only 2.6% for blue alliance.

[Torvando]

Wow, I didn't expect that semi-final match from the 2016 10,000 lakes regional to be on there. I'm surprised the win likelihood was only 2.6% for blue alliance.

That is surprising to me as well. I thought our alliances were quite even with your alliance having a slight advantage. It would have been fun to see if we could have won if we didn't have technical problems.

[Caleb Sykes]

Wow, I didn't expect that semi-final match from the 2016 10,000 lakes regional to be on there. I'm surprised the win likelihood was only 2.6% for blue alliance.

SF 1-1 had the blue alliance with a 11.3% chance to win, but replacing 2502 with 2470 dropped the chances quite a bit for SF 1-2.

[blueyoshi256]

I'm actually not that surprised by the 10,000 lakes match.
I mean, on the red alliance, you had 2052 and 525, with a combined total of 1 loss (by 525 to 2052). Each of them was scoring like 5+ high goals average.
And on the blue side...
2502, who were capable of scoring 5+ high goals easy, but were broken
2823, who could score 5 high goals, but only if we were really lucky. A good match would be like 2, and 0 was pretty common at 10k
3038, who were an awesome breacher and 3rd bot, (with no high goal scoring)
and 2470, who also couldn't score a high goal (but turns out that they were great at defense!)

So, I'd estimate a 10 high goal difference on average between the alliances going into the match. That's an insane deficit.

[Whatever]

I think the other odd thing to note about that match was 2470 went into the elimination rounds as the 4th replacement available. The reason they were out there was because there had already been two robots swapped in. I haven't actually heard what happened to the 3rd team. I thought it really spoke highly of 2470 that they were ready for the match.

[jayred1127]

The upset on Newton this year. That was cool to watch and unexpected.

[Harrison.Smith]

Going with the majority here.. although I'd say just all of Newton elims. That 7th seed was fun to watch!

[percyjackson]

Not really a match but 4130 was upsetting not bevahse of there team but how it played out. I was at Kettering #2 and they were just killing those defenses. It's a shame that they didn't make it to states and even worlds. They really had a solid defense destroyer robot.

[Brian Maher]

Not really a match but 4130 was upsetting not bevahse of there team but how it played out. I was at Kettering #2 and they were just killing those defenses. It's a shame that they didn't make it to states and even worlds. They really had a solid defense destroyer robot.

This thread is dedicated to the notion of an upset as an unexpected win in a game/sport. While there could be a conversation on losses we're all disappointed about this season, this is meant to be a discussion of against-the-odds victories.

[Connor McBride]

Not sure I wanted to be reminded of Curie division eliminations from this year...

I second this

[weaversam8]

Hey Caleb!

If you're working with prediction models for FRC, I'd suggest you checkout what my team, The Wired Wizards, did with ORB.

The link to the forum post is here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=147817

We worked with match prediction specific to Stronghold, doing analysis based on teams affinity with different defenses... there's more information in the post...

Good luck!

[Caleb Sykes]

Hey Caleb!

If you're working with prediction models for FRC, I'd suggest you checkout what my team, The Wired Wizards, did with ORB.

The link to the forum post is here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=147817

We worked with match prediction specific to Stronghold, doing analysis based on teams affinity with different defenses... there's more information in the post...

Good luck!

Did you ever see how accurate your predictions were? After training with data from 2011-2014, my current Elo model gets a Brier score of 0.1792 for predicting the winners of the 2016 Championship qual and playoff matches. I'm planning to try to predict matches with OPR, CCWM, and win contribution in the future and compare results.

[Caleb Sykes]

Did you ever see how accurate your predictions were? After training with data from 2011-2014, my current Elo model gets a Brier score of 0.1792 for predicting the winners of the 2016 Championship qual and playoff matches. I'm planning to try to predict matches with OPR, CCWM, and win contribution in the future and compare results.

Alternatively, it predicted 72.3% of the winning alliances correctly.

[weaversam8]

The project was exploratory, we were learning, but off the top of my head I think it was between 60 and 70 percent accurate.

[Chris is me]

Did you ever see how accurate your predictions were? After training with data from 2011-2014, my current Elo model gets a Brier score of 0.1792 for predicting the winners of the 2016 Championship qual and playoff matches. I'm planning to try to predict matches with OPR, CCWM, and win contribution in the future and compare results.

If you're going to compare to all of the various methods, would be cool to also compare to average qual score; anything less predictive than that is worthless basically.

[MattV781]

Waterloo 2016 Finals takes the cake for me. 1241 and 610 played incredibly well.

[Caleb Sykes]

If you're going to compare to all of the various methods, would be cool to also compare to average qual score; anything less predictive than that is worthless basically.

Do you mean each team's average qual score for the matches they have already played? Average qual score for the event would just predict a tie every match.

[Andrew Schreiber]

If you're going to compare to all of the various methods, would be cool to also compare to average qual score; anything less predictive than that is worthless basically.

Wanna be lazier, try just predicting w/l based off existing win ratio for alliance at the event. I have a hunch it's as good as anything else.

[Chris is me]

Do you mean each team's average qual score for the matches they have already played? Average qual score for the event would just predict a tie every match.

Yes, the average qual score of the team's previous matches; just like OPR uses the data from the team's previous qual matches, etc. OPR was always meant to be an improvement over average score. You can also do average winning margin as an alternate metric. OPR is supposed to be better than average score and CCWM is supposed to be better than average winning margin.

[TheBoulderite]

Our team led the only upset in the Quarterfinals of the Carson Division this year. With the help of 525, 4028, and 3352, we just barely edged out 2590, 225, 2067, and 11. Here's (https://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2016cars_qf3m1) the first and here's (https://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2016cars_qf3m2) the second.

I should have read the rules of the thread first. Sorry for posting one about my own team.

[carpedav000]

INDCMP elims had some pretty notable upsets (the 1501-868 upset and the 71-234-1741 alliance getting knocked out in quarterfinals)

[TheBoulderite]

Not necessarily an upset, but I found it really cool that the same alliance won 2 events together! (1024, 1747, 45)

[Skyehawk]

Not a match, but the entire 2016 Curie Division could be considered an upset. In every matchup on the bracket, the underdog came out on top. The eighth seed won the division. You can see the bracket at The Blue Alliance (https://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016cur).

and the finals were decided by three points, it was a curse to have red bumpers...