Division Prediction Pool

[The Lucas]

If you have read the Divisions threads carefully, you know that MOE's own super scout, Swami Bill Enslen, has posted his predictions for divisions this year in the white papers of Chief Delphi. As a team we have started a pool, guessing what his accuracy percentage will be. I am starting an online pool on this thread. Since Bill is in Germany, I will determine and post his accuracy percentage after FIRST posts divisions. Whoever's guess is closest is the winner. NOTE: The winner will receive no monetary prize, but I will try my best to get the winner an elusive and cherished green bandana (the one Alex Forest is always talking about) at the championship event*. Hurry up and post your guess before FIRST posts divisions!!!

* GROUND RULES: No one affiliated with Team 365 may win, they have a separate pool. One guess per person. Integer percentages only (no fractions, decimal points, irrational numbers, etc.). No one may duplicate another's guess.

Finally, Thank You Bill Enslen for taking the time to create these predictions to make the waiting easier on all of us. He is incredibly dedicated and skilled to derive a formula based on last year's divisions and extrapolate this year's divisions based that formula. I cannot even begin to understand how he did it. Thank you once again Bill for making all this possible!

[Joe Ross]

How will you determine which division is which? In the spread sheet the divisions are only numbered, do those numbers currently correspond to a name, or will you figure out what name each number corresponds to after the divisions are announced?

[The Lucas]

The Predictions were only for pairings, so the accuracy of the pairings will be tested. It was meant to show you which robots will be in your division, not what your division name will be. 24 possible combinations of division numbers corresponig to division names will be tested and the highest percentage will be taken. This makes lowest possible percentage 25.

[Joe Johnson]

I suppose that FIRST is very busy just now and that while this division stuff is very important to us, it is more of an afterthought for them. Therefore, I am guessing that they will simply count off the divisions based on who is registered for the Championships (which I suppose is very close to stable by now, though I did see that team #255 was dropped today).

FIRST may then go back and do a bit of touch up to make sure that there is a not a huge inequality in one or other of the divisions, but I don't expect much of that.

SO... my guess is shown below. Good luck on actually determining a winner of this pool, but you have me bet.

Joe J.

P.S. Division DDD RULES! (Chief Delphi, Wildstang, Rage & many others... ...look out AAA, BBB, & CCC!)

AAA BBB CCC DDD
001 006 007 008
009 010 016 019
021 022 025 027
028 033 034 038
041 042 045 047
048 049 053 056
057 059 060 063
064 065 066 067
068 070 071 074
075 079 084 085
086 087 088 093
094 096 100 102
103 107 108 111
114 115 116 118
120 121 122 125
126 128 133 135
138 140 141 144
145 147 148 151
155 157 158 159
165 166 168 173
174 175 176 177
178 179 180 182
184 186 188 190
191 192 201 203
204 212 217 222
223 224 226 228
230 231 233 234
235 236 237 238
246 250 254 258
263 267 269 271
274 276 278 279
280 281 284 288
291 292 294 296
301 302 303 304
306 308 311 312
313 314 316 322
329 330 334 335
337 339 340 341
342 343 346 348
352 353 356 357
358 359 364 365
368 374 378 382
383 384 386 398
399 400 401 405
406 408 409 410
415 416 422 434
435 440 442 444
446 448 449 456
457 469 476 481
486 494 496 498
501 502 503 507
510 519 521 522
533 535 537 538
540 541 546 547
548 554 555 560
563 568 573 582
588 606 609 610
614 618 624 638
639 642 643 644
651 652 654 655
662 665 668 686
694 698 702 710
714 716 752 753
781 810 811 812
814 816 818 822
824 825 832 859
862 865 868 869
870 888 894 900
902 910 920 930
932 933 940 942
945 946 947 954
955 964 967 968
975 980 987

[Joe Johnson]

Ah... now I see what you ment.

Your pool is on the percentage of the accuracy of the guess by Swami Bill Enslen's divisions.

I suppose that he is way off because he has used a method that FIRST is very unlike to duplicate (imho), so...

I predict 27% or just a bit better than random guessing would give us.

Joe J.

P.S. I predict that my predictions are not much better by the way: 33% Why? I guess that some sort of counting off process will be used and if that is so, then there will be a small of correllation between my guess and what FIRST uses. This small correllation will give me the slight edge over the more complex method that the Swami has used.

[Joe Ross]

Originally posted by The Lucas
24 possible combinations of division numbers corresponig to division names will be tested and the highest percentage will be taken. This makes lowest possible percentage 25.

Thats what I wanted to know, so that I knew whether to guess slightly above or slightly below 25% ;)

I'm slightly more optomistic then Dr. Joe, 30% :)

BTW, I'm still trying to figure out who the right person is to throw money at so that 330 and 340 are in the same division and neighbors in the pits ;)

[Joel J]

Originally posted by Joe Johnson
I suppose that FIRST is very busy just now and that while this division stuff is very important to us, it is more of an afterthought for them. Therefore, I am guessing that they will simply count off the divisions based on who is registered for the Championships (which I suppose is very close to stable by now, though I did see that team #255 was dropped today).

FIRST may then go back and do a bit of touch up to make sure that there is a not a huge inequality in one or other of the divisions, but I don't expect much of that.

SO... my guess is shown below. Good luck on actually determining a winner of this pool, but you have me bet.

Joe J.

P.S. Division DDD RULES! (Chief Delphi, Wildstang, Rage & many others... ...look out AAA, BBB, & CCC!)

AAA BBB CCC DDD
001 006 007 008
009 010 016 019
021 022 025 027
028 033 034 038
041 042 045 047
048 049 053 056
057 059 060 063
064 065 066 067
068 070 071 074
075 079 084 085
086 087 088 093
094 096 100 102
103 107 108 111
114 115 116 118
120 121 122 125
126 128 133 135
138 140 141 144
145 147 148 151
155 157 158 159
165 166 168 173
174 175 176 177
178 179 180 182
184 186 188 190
191 192 201 203
204 212 217 222
223 224 226 228
230 231 233 234
235 236 237 238
246 250 254 258
263 267 269 271
274 276 278 279
280 281 284 288
291 292 294 296
301 302 303 304
306 308 311 312
313 314 316 322
329 330 334 335
337 339 340 341
342 343 346 348
352 353 356 357
358 359 364 365
368 374 378 382
383 384 386 398
399 400 401 405
406 408 409 410
415 416 422 434
435 440 442 444
446 448 449 456
457 469 476 481
486 494 496 498
501 502 503 507
510 519 521 522
533 535 537 538
540 541 546 547
548 554 555 560
563 568 573 582
588 606 609 610
614 618 624 638
639 642 643 644
651 652 654 655
662 665 668 686
694 698 702 710
714 716 752 753
781 810 811 812
814 816 818 822
824 825 832 859
862 865 868 869
870 888 894 900
902 910 920 930
932 933 940 942
945 946 947 954
955 964 967 968
975 980 987 Ahahaha, that was how I said it would've been done last year. My accuracy didn't even exist. I say Swami's predictions are about 40 - 45% correct (can't give a single number when it comes to this). Lets see if I'll be wrong for yet another year.

[Todd Derbyshire]

Put me down for 32%

[The Lucas]

Divisions just came in. I will calculate the accuracy percentage with a teammate at the tomorrow's meeting. In responce to Joel J's guess of a range (40-45), I have decided to consider it a 45 to space out the guesses. So once agian the guesses are: Joe Johnson 27%, Joe Ross 30%, Todd Derbyshire 32%, Joel J. 45%.

[Perseus]

Here are my predicitions are late but here they are:


www.angelfire.com/de3/rpatel/predicition.html (http://www.usfirst.org/frc/public/FMPro?-db=team%20events.fp5&-lay=web&-format=team_list.htm&event=CMP&event%20year=2002&status=signed%20up&-sortfield=team%20id&-max=all&-find)

[Perseus]

p.s.
The familiarity this has with the actual FIRST site is comepletely coincidental

[Bill Enslen]

I don't actually know how close his 27% came to my actual accuracy, although I suspect it is pretty close. But I think Dr. Joe should get the prize because he came close to how FIRST actually parsed the teams into divisions. As he predicted, they assigned teams to divisions in team number order. Not totally as he predicted, but far from how I predicted. Oh, well, it was a fun diversion while we waited for the actual division assignments. And so, as Brian said, I'm off to Germany for a week. I'll see you all in Florida!

[The Lucas]

Swami Bill Enslen actual accuracy was: 28.87%
This was obtained testing the accuracy of all 24 combinations. With Archimedes as #2, Curie as #4, Einstein #3, and Newton as #1, the maximum accuracy was found.

In first place, came Joe Ross with a margin of 1.13%. Coming down to the wire with him was Dr. Joe Johnson, with a margin of 1.87%. Joe Ross, the prize is yours. Congratulations!

[Perseus]

joe, your prize is a picture with MOEhawk!!:D

[The Lucas]

Well, Hell hath frozen over and demons are performing "Disney On Ice" three times a week. Perseus actually made a useful suggestion. Folks, You saw it here first.

In addition to presenting you with the green bandana, we could get Joe's picture (with bandana on of course) with MOEhawk, Swami Bill and me. I might even get our team to do our award parade (Skippy might help with that). Are you usually in the 340 pit, Joe?

Thank you for the great idea Perseus!

P.S.
Sorry about the intro, Perseus, but I couldn't help myself. It has become a regular team pastime to ridicule you for your pointless posts with poor spelling and grammar (you stopped making these after you got 150 posts in two months). Also, your signatures that promised an 80% shooting percentage and vowed swift revenge on the engineers didn't help the situation. No hard feelings, it was just a joke. You finally got your "B.C.O.M. Forever" and I look forward to being your housemate this year in Florida. Villa 757 rules!!!

[rees2001]

Nice work Joe, show some of that RIT smarts for Grr,

"I am so smart, I am so smart. S M R T... I mean S M A R T." Homer Simpson

[Joe Ross]

Originally posted by The Lucas
Are you usually in the 340 pit, Joe?


I'll either be in the pit, or cheering my team, or cheering for other teams, or hanging out in other team's pits. I guess the only thing you can say is that I am usually hard to find.

Best thing you can do is keep stopping by 340's pit (or 330, my former team). Or look for a random person in a bright orange tie dye shirt (when I wore the shirt to school, one of my profs asked me what kind of batteries it takes). I'll also try to look you up a few times, time permitting.

Originally posted by rees2001
Nice work Joe, show some of that RIT smarts for Grr

I knew there was a reason I slept through that probability class for 10 long weeks. Wait...you didn't hear that...you are getting sleepy...very sleepy...you don't remember what I just said.

On another note, I originally wanted 27% but that was already taken, and so to keep from looking like an @$$ and picking 28, I chose something slightly higher

Originally posted by Joe Ross
BTW, I'm still trying to figure out who the right person is to throw money at so that 330 and 340 are in the same division and neighbors in the pits.

Apparently the money made it, but it wasn't enough :p 330 and 340 are in the same division, but their pits will most likely not be together.