Your game predictions - Car Nack Style

[Greg Needel]

Here are mine...what are your predictions.



*85%+ of teams who build hurdlers will hurdle 1 or less times on average per match.

*The average winning match score will be below 30

*There will be an International team on Einstein this year

*Many teams who hurdle will see the rest of the match from their backs

* Less than 10% of the teams attempting to use the IR board will actually be successful of controlling their robot during competition.

*teams that have balls on top of the overpass at the end of the match will win 80%+ of the time.

[Alex Cormier]

Very interesting Greg.

i'll plop in a few of mine as well.

About 5% of the bots at each regional will do everything.

Out of that 5% 2 will be paired up and win 85% of the regionals.

There will be a rookie team on Einstein.

The game play from week 1 and 2 will be drastically changed from later weeks.

[nuggetsyl]

If a team wins auto by 20 points or more it will be to much to over come.

[Jherbie53]

The game play from week 1 and 2 will be drastically changed from later weeks.

Isn't it always like that?

There will be a rookie team on Einstein.

There will be an International team on Einstein this year

I believe both of these will happen.

Now for some predictions,

At least one team will knock down both of their trackballs and make it across 4 lines in hybrid mode

Defensive play will be apart of the winning alliance at each regional and championships

High score for the year, not including IRI, will be over 125 points

We really should keep tabs on these predictions and see who got theirs right at the end of the year.

[Ian Curtis]

Autonomous scores over 12 will be VERY rare. (For the whole alliance)

75% (at least) of the time, the team winning autonomous will win the match.

No more than 15 robots worldwide will average 2 or more hurdles per match.

The track will jam be constantly jammed.

[Koko Ed]

At least once every regional there will be an "accidental" ramming incident where a robot is slammed into while hurdling. Severly damaging that robot.

In 25% of the matches there will be a robot or more flipping over due too cornering too fast with the trackball

Defensive strategies will become more prevalent as the season progresses.

[jgannon]

Autonomous scores over 12 will be VERY rare.
Per team, or per alliance? I predict that, in light of the No Robot Left Behind challenge that many teams are taking on, 20 will be a reasonably common hybrid score for an alliance. A non-trivial number of teams should be scoring 16 by themselves.

My prediction: The most commonly heard phrase in the stands at regionals, particularly in the early weeks, but persisting up until Einstein, is "Wow, there sure is a lot of defense in this game."

[Koko Ed]

Per team, or per alliance? I predict that, in light of the No Robot Left Behind challenge that many teams are taking on, 20 will be a reasonably common hybrid score for an alliance. A non-trivial number of teams should be scoring 16 by themselves.

My prediction: The most commonly heard phrase in the stands at regionals, particularly in the early weeks, but persisting up until Einstein, is "Wow, there sure is a lot of defense in this game."
replace the word defense with violence.
People who want defense will find ways to get defense into the game and desperation will led people to make unfortunate decisions.

[ALIBI]

1: A Hybrid score of 28 points or more will actually be fairly common. Most teams will be able to move forward 30 feet (12pts), one team will be able to remove a trackball (8pts), at least two teams will be able to move forward, turn left and move forward again (8pts). A good hybrid bot, at least one per regional, will be able to cross two finish lines, a lane marker and remove at least one trackball (24 points).

2: Trackball control will either win for offense if you can control your own trackball or win for defense if you can keep your opponents trackball away from them.

3: Being able to place two trackballs at the end will make or break most matches. If defense can keep the trackballs away or descore a placed trackball, the defense will win.

4: Chipping away two points at a time doing laps while occasionally bumping your opponents trackball in a clockwise direction and occasionally bumping yours over your finish line will be valuable.

[Daniel_LaFleur]

1> The alliance that wins hybrid will win the match 85% of the time

2> One of the winners on Einstien will have a higher number than any previous winner on Einstien.

3> The best hurdlers will average just over 1 hurdle per match.

4> Trackballs on the overpass at the end of the match will be rare ... under 10% of the possible number.

5> The winning alliance on Einstien will have 1 excellent hurdler and 2 very good, very fast herders

6> At the regionals at least 20% of the teams will have robots that go too fast to control properly.

7> 50% of the matches will see at least 1 robot overturned.

[Taylor]

1. At over half the regionals, there will be a rookie on the winning alliance.
2. "Racecar" style robots will commonly be top-seeded.
3. There will be a robot identical to one in the GDC animation
4. Collaborating teams, such as the Martians or Triplets, will be a force.
5. At least one Indiana team will be World Champion.

[Ian Curtis]

1: A Hybrid score of 28 points or more will actually be fairly common. Most teams will be able to move forward 30 feet (12pts), one team will be able to remove a trackball (8pts), at least two teams will be able to move forward, turn left and move forward again (8pts). A good hybrid bot, at least one per regional, will be able to cross two finish lines, a lane marker and remove at least one trackball (24 points).

2: Trackball control will either win for offense if you can control your own trackball or win for defense if you can keep your opponents trackball away from them.

3: Being able to place two trackballs at the end will make or break most matches. If defense can keep the trackballs away or descore a placed trackball, the defense will win.

4: Chipping away two points at a time doing laps while occasionally bumping your opponents trackball in a clockwise direction and occasionally bumping yours over your finish line will be valuable.

1) I don't believe so. Going straight for 50 feet is hard! It took us nearly 3 years to get it down (granted, we didn't spend the whole time working on it). And the real problem won't be that BLUEABOT1 isn't able to do it on his own, it'll be that BLUEABOT2 and BLUEABOT3 will be gunning for it at the same time, and someone will get clipped, then they'll spin out, and trap the rest of their alliance behind them. Additionally, it will cost nearly all teams at least 5 seconds to stop, knock the ball down, and then start up again. Not to mention, it's probably worth your time (if you hurdle) to have hold of that ball from the start of tele-op.

3) Why not just hurdle it and ensure you get the points? If you place, you get 12 points that can be taken away, if you hurdle, you get 8 guaranteed points. While this builds up over two trackballs, will you get 2 good hurdlers together in a seeding match? I'd bet maybe twice a regional. So I see hurdling as more valuable unless you absolutely need those 4 points, and can't get them racing around the track in the time it takes you to position that ball.

[Joe_Widen]

My favorite thread every year!! My first time to actually post on it though.

-- More then 50 points a match for an alliance will be a HIGH score, maybe one or two of these each regional.
-- Most points scored in a match will be 75-80.
-- 8 seeded team will beat a 1 seeded team through strategy
-- If a robot can hurdle 3+ times in one match, they are amazing. Less then 5% of robots can do that consistently
-- A robot will tip every other match
-- Many teams wont beable to control their robots nad there will be a few cards

[Rick]

replace the word defense with violence.
People who want defense will find ways to get defense into the game and desperation will led people to make unfortunate decisions.

I completely agree. I also agree with Ed about robots getting hit while hurdling and destroyed. Defense will be almost non-existant in the first week. Plus whats up with the low, low match score predicitons?:confused:

[Kyle379]

Most matches will be won or lost in the final 30 seconds. . . I'll even go as low as 15 seconds.

[vhcook]

At least once during the regular season, a robot will accidentally fire a trackball into the stands. The crowd will respond by using it as a beachball. The footage will appear in most highlight reels.

At least once during each regional, a robot will turn too early and recross its own finish line.

[jgannon]

One of the winners on Einstien will have a higher number than any previous winner on Einstien.
It is worth noting that this has happened every year since 2003.
Defense will be almost non-existant in the first week.
Quite the contrary... defense will be most prevalent in the first week, as teams discover that their manipulators don't work. This game will look a lot like 2005 in a lot of ways for many teams.

[Koko Ed]

At least once during the regular season, a robot will accidentally fire a trackball into the stands. The crowd will respond by using it as a beachball. The footage will appear in most highlight reels.

At least once during each regional, a robot will turn too early and recross its own finish line.

In 2002 there was this trackball sized ball being gleefully (and strangely competitively) bounced around the stands during the closing ceremonies. One of our mentors snagged it and tried to run away with it and she got jumped by three kids from another team who took it away from her.

[gurellia53]

1)

3) Why not just hurdle it and ensure you get the points? If you place, you get 12 points that can be taken away, if you hurdle, you get 8 guaranteed points. While this builds up over two trackballs, will you get 2 good hurdlers together in a seeding match? I'd bet maybe twice a regional. So I see hurdling as more valuable unless you absolutely need those 4 points, and can't get them racing around the track in the time it takes you to position that ball.

I agree. Hurdling gets you 8 points plus 2 more if you cross the finish line. So taking the time to place a ball would only get you 2 more points.

[Greg Needel]

I agree. Hurdling gets you 8 points plus 2 more if you cross the finish line. So taking the time to place a ball would only get you 2 more points.

unless you are on your opponents side of the field with no chance of getting to your finish line.

[Jonathan Norris]

I agree with slot of these predictions saying that it will be a very auto heavy game with low scoring. But I do believe that there will be hurdleres who can average 3-4 hurdles a game. But thse bots will give up the advantage of being able to place at the end, but then again there will be the beatty, simbotics, poofs, ect. That can place and hurdle like mad.

[ALIBI]

1) I don't believe so. Going straight for 50 feet is hard! It took us nearly 3 years to get it down (granted, we didn't spend the whole time working on it). And the real problem won't be that BLUEABOT1 isn't able to do it on his own, it'll be that BLUEABOT2 and BLUEABOT3 will be gunning for it at the same time, and someone will get clipped, then they'll spin out, and trap the rest of their alliance behind them. Additionally, it will cost nearly all teams at least 5 seconds to stop, knock the ball down, and then start up again. Not to mention, it's probably worth your time (if you hurdle) to have hold of that ball from the start of tele-op.

3) Why not just hurdle it and ensure you get the points? If you place, you get 12 points that can be taken away, if you hurdle, you get 8 guaranteed points. While this builds up over two trackballs, will you get 2 good hurdlers together in a seeding match? I'd bet maybe twice a regional. So I see hurdling as more valuable unless you absolutely need those 4 points, and can't get them racing around the track in the time it takes you to position that ball.

1. Going straight has not been that big of a problem and using the robocoach to correct for traffic will offer some help to cross at least two lines. Think of the robot that hugs the center divider and turns left when it runs out of wall or the robot that hugs the oustide wall and follows it around. Who says that it takes 5 seconds to remove the trackball? Suppose that you could remove the trackball without stopping. I do agree that if you can get contol of the trackball when you remove it from the overpass, you will have some advantage. Getting a trackball off the floor will take some time if you opposing alliance is pushing your trackball around.

3: To hurdle you have to be at your own finish line and the trackball must have crossed the opponents finish line. To place, the trackball does not have to cross the opponents finish line nor does it have to be placed above your own finish line. I just think that you have more chance of being in position to place at the end than hurdle.

[dlavery]

Moved over from the other thread:

I have been waiting for Car-Nack to appear. The season just does not seem complete without the annual prognostications of our resident oracle.

But whilst we wait to receive enlightenment from upon high, I will offer up a little prediction of my own:

At least once during the season, a Trackball will leap over the extended guard rails, escape the field, and take out the entire scoring table (computers and all) before anyone can react and corral it.


-dave (I knew Car-Nack. I worked with Car-Nack. And you, sir, are no Car-Nack)


.

[waialua359]

the robot(s) that can effectively do the following will be successful:
1. grab/suck from the ground
2. hurdle
3. move with ease WITH the ball in possession around the field.

We will see many robots that will:
1. try and race around the track
2. have ability to knock balls off the overpass

I dont believe that teams that race to do laps will beat hurdlers.

Autonomous and defense are the wildcards. Lose badly in autonomous, and you probably loss the match.

[65_Xero_Huskie]

Here are mine...what are your predictions.



*85%+ of teams who build hurdlers will hurdle 1 or less times on average per match.

*The average winning match score will be below 30

*There will be an International team on Einstein this year

*Many teams who hurdle will see the rest of the match from their backs

* Less than 10% of the teams attempting to use the IR board will actually be successful of controlling their robot during competition.

*teams that have balls on top of the overpass at the end of the match will win 80%+ of the time.

I like all of these predictions..
Except the last one.

I predict that teams with the ball on top will lose 75% of the time.

[Brandon Holley]

I think people are low balling the average score here...


Defense is going to be huge in weeks 1 and 2 and start to fizzle out as teams tune their mechanisms.





I also agree that hurdling is a more effective use of time than placing the ball at the end.

[JesseK]

--> No less than 25% of robot manipulators will be damaged beyond repair due to falling trackballs

--> There will be an average of 2 flags per match that need to be replaced due to trackball damage or the fact that the flag is taller than the bottom of the trackball on the overpass in hybrid mode

--> 40% of the bots that successfully knock off a ball in hybrid mode will have knocked off their opponents' ball instead of their own

--> The best drive train by the end of the championships will have been deemed any drive train that utilises a differential

--> There will be rampant IR interference at the championships as more teams learn how to better use their 4 hybrid commands

--> Placement of a trackball on the overpass at the end of a match this year is synonymous with ramping last year -- it's an end-game decision, not a goal

--> There will be an average of at least 20 matches per regional where no trackballs are knocked off of the goals for the entirety of hybrid mode, regardless of how many attempts are made

--> There will be an average of at least 1 match per regional where no trackball leaves the overpass for the entirety of the match due to launcher-only or racing-only style robots, either due to lack of design or damage to said would-be manipulators

[JesseK]

I agree. Hurdling gets you 8 points plus 2 more if you cross the finish line. So taking the time to place a ball would only get you 2 more points.

This is a completely design-dependant statement. There are those designs that easily could have 1 thing different happen in order to stop a hurdle and instead place a ball in the same amount of time it takes them to hurdle. The difference for those designs is still 4 points instead of 2. It might seem small, but percentage-wise it's still significant enough to design for and consider for your strategy.

[Swampdude]

The flags w/ lap detectors will be broken, flying and unplugging pwms, and manual lap counts will be iffy

getting clotheslined on the overpass will happen every other match - which means most bots on their backs will be right in front of the overpass. other teams will help you get clotheslined, even teammates

bots will move in clumps and scrum for 1 ball while good scorers will break away from clumping

launchers will be very successfull - but somebody will get hurt. There will be a launcher in 75% of winning alliances

at least every 3rd seeding match, hybrid mode will have a 2 bot pileup 20' from the start line

the I/R controls thing will cause many match delays

bots won't be going more than 13'/s even if they could - too much going on

[Brandon Holley]

bots won't be going more than 13'/s even if they could - too much going on


couldnt agree more here. Not enough of a "runway" to get up to speed and so much going on.

[Tottanka]

* An international team will win a big award at Atlanta (Rookie All Star, Chairman's or Champion).
* A rookie team on Einstein.
* In every other match at least one robot will find tip over.
* Most shooters will be considered too dangerous and therfore asked not to shoot balls.
* An all rookie alliance will win at least one regional.
* At least 25% of the robots will break during Qualification Matches.
* Someone will get injured, in at least 1 regional.

[Ken Patton]

Some creative team will be hailed as an innovator when they introduce brake lights, only to be disaapointed when in their first match, the lights are broken in a rear-end collision.

Coaches will sound an awful lot like traffic reporters.

A Sammy Hagar song will be HUGE.

[Travis Hoffman]

Some creative team will be hailed as an innovator when they introduce brake lights, only to be disaapointed when in their first match, the lights are broken in a rear-end collision.


Would the Robo-Police pull you over and give you a "ticket" for a broken tail lamp?

You know, this would have been the perfect year to bring back a placebo bot - dress him up as a pace car or cop car, let the little bugger drive around, mount a megaphone on the thing to let the head ref shout out penalties at the racers; put a wireless camera on it to give the types of angles you get from a NASCAR broadcast.

Anyone going to put "dash cams" on their robots this year? Think of the cool views that would yield. I believe they're still allowed with event staff permission. We had a 2.4 GHz wireless robot feed displayed up on the big board at several events in 2004.




A Sammy Hagar song will be HUGE.


One foot on the brake and one on the gas, hey!
Well, there's too much traffic, I can't pass, no!
So I tried my best illegal move
to think black and white come and touched my groove again!

Gonna write me up a warrant 25
Post my face wanted dead or alive
Take my license, all that jive
I can't drive 55! Oh No!
Uh!

[JesseK]

Some creative team will be hailed as an innovator when they introduce brake lights, only to be disaapointed when in their first match, the lights are broken in a rear-end collision.

This is the second time this thread has made me burst out laughing at work... :D

[Koko Ed]

You know, this would have been the perfect year to bring back a placebo bot - dress him up as a pace car or cop car, let the little bugger drive around, mount a megaphone on the thing to let the head ref shout out penalties at the racers; put a wireless camera on it to give the types of angles you get from a NASCAR broadcast.






People would complain that the placebo bot was causing traffic jams.

[feliks_rosenber]

* An international team will win a big award at Atlanta (Rookie All Star, Chairman's or Champion).

Tottanka, will this Rookie All Star team be, by chance, a team from Israel?

Understatement...

:)

[Ian Curtis]

1. Going straight has not been that big of a problem and using the robocoach to correct for traffic will offer some help to cross at least two lines. Think of the robot that hugs the center divider and turns left when it runs out of wall or the robot that hugs the oustide wall and follows it around. Who says that it takes 5 seconds to remove the trackball? Suppose that you could remove the trackball without stopping. I do agree that if you can get contol of the trackball when you remove it from the overpass, you will have some advantage. Getting a trackball off the floor will take some time if you opposing alliance is pushing your trackball around.

3: To hurdle you have to be at your own finish line and the trackball must have crossed the opponents finish line. To place, the trackball does not have to cross the opponents finish line nor does it have to be placed above your own finish line. I just think that you have more chance of being in position to place at the end than hurdle.

I don't doubt that the occasional team will be able to knock the ball off without stopping. We're attempting to be one of them. However, teams in general have such a bad track record at autonomous, I'm not willing to give us as a whole the benefit of the doubt enough to suggest it will be common. I'm much more inclined to believe it will be rather rare (on the order of less than 3 robots a regional).

On the other hand, the more I think about 3, the more I think I've changed my mind. I had forgotten about the fact that you have both sides to place, and for some silly reason had the stupid conception that if you placed you were magically barred from crossing. :rolleyes:

So I would agree that placing is beneficial, but I think for some mechanisms it's going to be a more difficult task than hurdling.

Also, I'll rescind my 12 points being a high autonomous score. I wouldn't be on the average autonomous being higher than 12 though.

[Joe G.]

-In 1/3rd of matches, the hybrid score will be greater than the teleoperated score.

-Average autonomous scores will be 12-24, with an occasional huge score.

-VERSITAL autonomous modes will win, with all the robot out there.

-Most hurdlers will average 1-2 hurdles, with a select few getting 3-4, and 71/111/1114/other elite teams maybe getting an occasional 5.

-Impeding track penalties will be improperly enforced at half of regionals, and overly prevalent at 1/4th of them. This will become the most common complaint from people going "OMG this game is horrible"

-After week one, the lap indicator system will be heavily modified in the team updates.

-75% of launchers will perform poorly, but the remaining 25% will be forces at their regionals

-Most Ackerman steering designs will perform poorly, but swerve/crab/holonomic drive designs will do well.

-Good herders and racers will be rare, and under high demand, especially the racers.

-The infrared system will be used by most teams, but truly effectively by about 1/3rd.

-A rookie team will come up with something that revolutionizes robot designs for years to come.

-A rookie team will win a prominent award in Atlanta, other than Rookie all-star.

-An international team will make it to Einstein.

-Scissor lifts will make a reappearance, and at least one scissor lift robot, defying all expectations, will win a regional.

-1 to 3 teams will come up with an ingenious and effective suction system, most other suction robots will not do well.

-Many teams, particularly launchers, will get burned during inspection due to the wedge rule.

-50% of matches will be decided in autonomous, however, those that aren't will be undecided until the last few seconds.

-Autonomous and driver practice will be more important than usual.

-player station guards, like those in 2005, will be reintroduced, after a launcher shoots over the player station.

-The winning alliance on will have an arm-based hurdler, from a team that competed in 2001, a launcher that can also catch a falling trackball, and a racer, using one of the most impressive swerve drives FIRST has ever seen.

-Segments of at least 2 regionals, the championship, and maybe even an offseason event will be televised, thanks to dean's homework.




Says who we have to limit this to FRC?:D

Quad Quandary:

-Goal scoring will be the prominent form of scoring. So much so, that the SECOND place alliance will not be able to score rings for more than 2 points (you didn't think 1114 would settle for that, did you?:cool: )

-Getting 3 or 4 goals in autonomous will win most matches.



Power Puzzle:

-An RCX will win, with the huge bonus they get.

-Scores above 350 will be extremely common come atlanta, 400s will be rare, though

[jollyroger1210]

A Sammy Hagar song will be HUGE.

Another song ruined by bringing it to the masses. Also, never sing that song if you've just been pulled over, The cops don't appreciate it too much. :cool:

[ALIBI]

After practice on day one there will be a world wide shortage of trackball bladders.

After practice on day one there will be a team update requiring additional shielding of the robots to protect the trackball.

Edges on the robot that are safe for human contact will become lethal weapons for trackballs.

[Joe Ross]

After practice on day one there will be a world wide shortage of trackball bladders.

After practice on day one there will be a team update requiring additional shielding of the robots to protect the trackball.

Edges on the robot that are safe for human contact will become lethal weapons for trackballs.

Hopefully most people will have read and followed <R05>. We spent several hours last night sanding and filing and grinding our frame to comply with it.

[Koko Ed]

Hopefully most people will have read and followed <R05>. We spent several hours last night sanding and filing and grinding our frame to comply with it.

There are 1500 teams out there. I expect a quarter of them to disobey the In 2005 there was a glaring rule with a crippling penalty attached to it and there were teams that blatantly ignored it.
Now we have 1500 teams. I expect a quarter of the teams to blow of the counterclockwise travel mandate. This rule probably not even going to be on their radar.

[Greg Needel]

There are 1500 teams out there. I expect a quarter of them to disobey the In 2005 there was a glaring rule with a crippling penalty attached to it and there were teams that blatantly ignored it.
Now we have 1500 teams. I expect a quarter of the teams to blow of the counterclockwise travel mandate. This rule probably not even going to be on their radar.

The thing about the counter clockwise travel mandate is that it only applies when you are crossing lines. It appears that in between the lines robots can move in any direction as long as they don't cross a non CW line. Basically the way I see it is teams can move any direction they want within the 4 quadrants.

[Cory]

couldnt agree more here. Not enough of a "runway" to get up to speed and so much going on.

I thoroughly beg to differ ;)

[Peter Matteson]

I thoroughly beg to differ ;)

I wholehartdly agree with Cory. I think you'll be surprised by how fast many teams go with full control and a few that just use the walls to guide them around.

[Brandon Holley]

I thoroughly beg to differ ;)

well see cory, well see