Looking Forward
14-04-2008, 22:52
One-hundred-and-five days after FIRST Overdrive was announced we will be crowning a champion in the Georgia Dome. Three teams will endure six weeks of building, forty-one regional events, four championship divisions, and play on the Einstein field to emerge as the winning alliance. 342 teams are preparing to compete in the Georgia Dome as we speak. The lines between the elite, the great, and the good are more blurred than ever. With this much parity, scouting, strategy, and the third partners will be massive factors, even more than usual. Ladies and gentlemen...welcome to the big show.
Arc Cur Gal New
Regional Winners: 22 23 29 27
2x Winners: 1 1 6 6
3x Winners: 1 0 1 0
Regional Wins: 25 24 36 33
While not the most balanced divisions FIRST has ever seen, they aren't terribly unfair either. Don't even begin to think that any of these divisions won't be able to field an alliance capable of winning it all or that any of these divisions are a lock to leave Einstein with gold. Will Curie or Galileo finally break through and win a Championship this year? Will someone finally join Team Hammond in the two-win club? Will a four-digit team win on Einstein?
Each division will have it's own prediction thread, but here's a lay-out of how they will work. "Tips", "locks", "dark horses", and "sleepers" will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that's guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_horse) is a team that has played very well all year but hasn't generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven't been able to put it all together yet, but has some potential to shine in Atlanta if they can play well.
Play will differ from division to division, as it always does. Anyone remember Galileo last year, where ramps had very little impact on the qualification rounds (and the rack still decided most eliminations)? There will also be some significant changes between qualification and elimination play. Curie has the largest proportion of its effective hurdlers that can also place, meaning bonus balls will certainly have an impact in the qualification rounds. Many alliances will at least opt for the option of having the bonus ball in eliminations too, but the value will likely be somewhat reduced (with the exception of close matches). Galileo will have a bunch of "run and gun" matches early on, but likely as we progress into Saturday teams will begin to focus even more on slowing down the big dogs.
Elimination alliance structure will vary from division to division and alliance to alliance. Some will opt for three hurdlers, some for a lap-bot, some for a defender, some for a killer hybrid, and some for a utility-machine. Some two-shooter alliances may opt for a third partner with the ability to place. It will be very hard for bots without the ability to de-perch the track ball to make it into the eliminations in many cases. Many captains will opt for what is comfortable to them and has worked in the past. It will be interesting to see which opt for specialized bots and which opt for machines with multiple functionalities.
And now a special treat. The Looking Forward team has assembled a Top 25 List similar to that done in college sports (by the AP and others). Looking Forward contributors each cast a ballot, as well as many reputed outside sources. Sixteen total votes were cast, including those by WFAs, championship winning coaches, head scouts, former drivers, and respected CD community members. Voters were selected from around the country (and Canada) to attempt to avoid any regional biases.
Team/1st Place Votes (when applicable)/Total Points
1- 1114/15/399
The Simbots have joined the three win club for the second time in team history, winning MWR, Waterloo, and GTR in convincing fashion. Scariest part is that they got better as the season went along. A reliable high-scoring hybrid, coupled with the ability to hurdle like mad puts them on top of Overdrive.
2-217/1/344
The ThunderChickens came within a match of winning three regionals, and if not for a power distribution problem, they might have. They can hurdle with anyone, and can score through tough defense.
3-233/324
The Pink Team was impressive in Florida, but elevated it to another level in Hawai'i. They went 10-0 in qualifications, and their only elimination loss came after they tipped over. They are an elite scoring team with an outstanding roller claw and telescoping arm.
4-39/300
The 39th Aero Squadron are typically regarded as the best "pure-shooter". They won Arizona and Los Vegas, have hurdled seven times in a match, and can even hurdle a flat trackball.
5-330/295
The Beachbots have once again perfected a simple and elegant design. They were selected first-overall at both regionals, reaching the finals in one and winning the other. Their quick arm design puts them as one of the best in '08.
6-254/290
After a shakey start but regional victory in San Jose, the poofs became ferociously good in Hawai'i. Their elevator-shooter hybrid design helped them survive the SFs while 233 was shut down. Their on the upswing, and are very dangerous.
7-1024/225
The Kil-A-Bytes also won three events this year (MWR, IN, OH). Their killer hybrid, flexibility, and strong hurdling make them a force to be reckoned with.
8-968/223
RAWC won San Diego and made the Semis in Hawai'i as the #2 seed at both events. They are a quick and agile bot, capable of rapidly putting up some serious points.
9-16/208
The resurgent Bomb Squad beat 118 in the finals in Bayou and it took the combined might of seven regional victories on the opposing alliance in Midwest to bring them down. Their swerve-driving flop-bot has shot many a ball over the overpass, and they are one of the most accomplished scorers in '08.
TIE, 10-71/201
The Beatty Beast made an early exit in Chicago, but improved their bot and came back to win in West Michigan. Team Hammond's shooter and swerve drive make them a prolific scoring machine.
TIE, 10-987/201
The High Rollers only have two losses on the year, and they both came in the SD finals against the combined might of 968 and 1717. They then went undefeated in LV. Their roller clawed, arm/shooter combo is fully capable of racking up huge amounts of points.
12-103/177
The Cybersonics took home their fourth consecutive Trenton victory, but couldn't pull off wins in Florida or Philly. They are capable of putting up five or six hurdles when un-opposed and have an excellent hybrid on top of that.
13-27/176
Rush didn't capture a victory in Detroit or GLR, but they were an incredibly dangerous shooter at both. When running at full capacity, there are few teams capable of keeping up with them.
14-1124/169
When you see the Überbots run, they don't seem overly dominant, but they somehow put up tons of hurdles. Joined with their quick and effective hybrid, they become a force to be reckoned with. So much so, that they're the only undefeated team at the Championship.
15-175/152
Buzz won Connecticut and made the semis in Manchester. Their fast pick-up, reliable hurdling, and stellar driving make them a gigantic threat in any match.
16-2056/136
The Patriotics won both their events, Waterloo and GTR, for the second consecutive year. They have yet to lose a regional competition in their history. Their scissoring roller-based arm can be a huge threat, and it's scored them many points.
17-1625/128
Winnovation captained the alliance that handed 1114 their only elimination loss of the season, and managed to secure a victory in Denver. They lost in the semi-finals in Chicago and Wisconsin due to technical issues, but when fully operational, they are a gigantic hurdling threat.
18-67/117
HOT captained the alliance that kept 217 from winning their third event. The HotBot is a reliable and deadly scoring machine, with an awesome arm.
19-20/109
The Rocketeers won Finger Lakes and Boston in 2008. They sport a very smooth and efficient pickup mechanism, mounted on a hockey-stick arm. They can score more than their fair share of points.
20-40/94
Trinity won their first event in week 1 (NH) but followed it up with another in Boston. Their roller claw helps them put up quite a few hurdles.
21-469/93
The Gorillas won Detroit with 217, but changed to a shooter in Great Lakes. With their new shooting design they became even more deadly, but weren't able to capture a medal.
22-118/90
The Robonauts made the finals in both Texas and New Orleans, but lost both times. They are a long-range shooter, with a quick and agile drive, capable of putting up tons of points when everything goes right.
23-111/83
Wildstang made the finals in their home Chicago regional and won in Indiana. They're getting better, which is scary, and they can put up several hurdles with their roller-based elevator.
24-33/82
The Bees weren't able to win at any of their events, but are a proficient scoring machine none-the-less. Their folding roller claw and elevator allows them to consistently score and makes them a threat in any match.
25-1717/80
The D'Penguineers won San Diego and LA as part of two terrific alliances. They are a quick, consistent, and deadly scoring machine with their elevator and roller intake.
Others receiving votes (points):
365(66),1126(63),25(58),148(55),121(50),191(33),52 5(28),1086(24),1477(24),1731(19),368(18),176(13),7 9(13),47(11),107(10),359(9),126(8),1251 (8),1279(5),58(4), 326(4),100(3),115(2),173(2),195(2),2337(2),503(1), 1806(1)
Divisional and Einstein predictions coming soon...
Arc Cur Gal New
Regional Winners: 22 23 29 27
2x Winners: 1 1 6 6
3x Winners: 1 0 1 0
Regional Wins: 25 24 36 33
While not the most balanced divisions FIRST has ever seen, they aren't terribly unfair either. Don't even begin to think that any of these divisions won't be able to field an alliance capable of winning it all or that any of these divisions are a lock to leave Einstein with gold. Will Curie or Galileo finally break through and win a Championship this year? Will someone finally join Team Hammond in the two-win club? Will a four-digit team win on Einstein?
Each division will have it's own prediction thread, but here's a lay-out of how they will work. "Tips", "locks", "dark horses", and "sleepers" will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that's guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_horse) is a team that has played very well all year but hasn't generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven't been able to put it all together yet, but has some potential to shine in Atlanta if they can play well.
Play will differ from division to division, as it always does. Anyone remember Galileo last year, where ramps had very little impact on the qualification rounds (and the rack still decided most eliminations)? There will also be some significant changes between qualification and elimination play. Curie has the largest proportion of its effective hurdlers that can also place, meaning bonus balls will certainly have an impact in the qualification rounds. Many alliances will at least opt for the option of having the bonus ball in eliminations too, but the value will likely be somewhat reduced (with the exception of close matches). Galileo will have a bunch of "run and gun" matches early on, but likely as we progress into Saturday teams will begin to focus even more on slowing down the big dogs.
Elimination alliance structure will vary from division to division and alliance to alliance. Some will opt for three hurdlers, some for a lap-bot, some for a defender, some for a killer hybrid, and some for a utility-machine. Some two-shooter alliances may opt for a third partner with the ability to place. It will be very hard for bots without the ability to de-perch the track ball to make it into the eliminations in many cases. Many captains will opt for what is comfortable to them and has worked in the past. It will be interesting to see which opt for specialized bots and which opt for machines with multiple functionalities.
And now a special treat. The Looking Forward team has assembled a Top 25 List similar to that done in college sports (by the AP and others). Looking Forward contributors each cast a ballot, as well as many reputed outside sources. Sixteen total votes were cast, including those by WFAs, championship winning coaches, head scouts, former drivers, and respected CD community members. Voters were selected from around the country (and Canada) to attempt to avoid any regional biases.
Team/1st Place Votes (when applicable)/Total Points
1- 1114/15/399
The Simbots have joined the three win club for the second time in team history, winning MWR, Waterloo, and GTR in convincing fashion. Scariest part is that they got better as the season went along. A reliable high-scoring hybrid, coupled with the ability to hurdle like mad puts them on top of Overdrive.
2-217/1/344
The ThunderChickens came within a match of winning three regionals, and if not for a power distribution problem, they might have. They can hurdle with anyone, and can score through tough defense.
3-233/324
The Pink Team was impressive in Florida, but elevated it to another level in Hawai'i. They went 10-0 in qualifications, and their only elimination loss came after they tipped over. They are an elite scoring team with an outstanding roller claw and telescoping arm.
4-39/300
The 39th Aero Squadron are typically regarded as the best "pure-shooter". They won Arizona and Los Vegas, have hurdled seven times in a match, and can even hurdle a flat trackball.
5-330/295
The Beachbots have once again perfected a simple and elegant design. They were selected first-overall at both regionals, reaching the finals in one and winning the other. Their quick arm design puts them as one of the best in '08.
6-254/290
After a shakey start but regional victory in San Jose, the poofs became ferociously good in Hawai'i. Their elevator-shooter hybrid design helped them survive the SFs while 233 was shut down. Their on the upswing, and are very dangerous.
7-1024/225
The Kil-A-Bytes also won three events this year (MWR, IN, OH). Their killer hybrid, flexibility, and strong hurdling make them a force to be reckoned with.
8-968/223
RAWC won San Diego and made the Semis in Hawai'i as the #2 seed at both events. They are a quick and agile bot, capable of rapidly putting up some serious points.
9-16/208
The resurgent Bomb Squad beat 118 in the finals in Bayou and it took the combined might of seven regional victories on the opposing alliance in Midwest to bring them down. Their swerve-driving flop-bot has shot many a ball over the overpass, and they are one of the most accomplished scorers in '08.
TIE, 10-71/201
The Beatty Beast made an early exit in Chicago, but improved their bot and came back to win in West Michigan. Team Hammond's shooter and swerve drive make them a prolific scoring machine.
TIE, 10-987/201
The High Rollers only have two losses on the year, and they both came in the SD finals against the combined might of 968 and 1717. They then went undefeated in LV. Their roller clawed, arm/shooter combo is fully capable of racking up huge amounts of points.
12-103/177
The Cybersonics took home their fourth consecutive Trenton victory, but couldn't pull off wins in Florida or Philly. They are capable of putting up five or six hurdles when un-opposed and have an excellent hybrid on top of that.
13-27/176
Rush didn't capture a victory in Detroit or GLR, but they were an incredibly dangerous shooter at both. When running at full capacity, there are few teams capable of keeping up with them.
14-1124/169
When you see the Überbots run, they don't seem overly dominant, but they somehow put up tons of hurdles. Joined with their quick and effective hybrid, they become a force to be reckoned with. So much so, that they're the only undefeated team at the Championship.
15-175/152
Buzz won Connecticut and made the semis in Manchester. Their fast pick-up, reliable hurdling, and stellar driving make them a gigantic threat in any match.
16-2056/136
The Patriotics won both their events, Waterloo and GTR, for the second consecutive year. They have yet to lose a regional competition in their history. Their scissoring roller-based arm can be a huge threat, and it's scored them many points.
17-1625/128
Winnovation captained the alliance that handed 1114 their only elimination loss of the season, and managed to secure a victory in Denver. They lost in the semi-finals in Chicago and Wisconsin due to technical issues, but when fully operational, they are a gigantic hurdling threat.
18-67/117
HOT captained the alliance that kept 217 from winning their third event. The HotBot is a reliable and deadly scoring machine, with an awesome arm.
19-20/109
The Rocketeers won Finger Lakes and Boston in 2008. They sport a very smooth and efficient pickup mechanism, mounted on a hockey-stick arm. They can score more than their fair share of points.
20-40/94
Trinity won their first event in week 1 (NH) but followed it up with another in Boston. Their roller claw helps them put up quite a few hurdles.
21-469/93
The Gorillas won Detroit with 217, but changed to a shooter in Great Lakes. With their new shooting design they became even more deadly, but weren't able to capture a medal.
22-118/90
The Robonauts made the finals in both Texas and New Orleans, but lost both times. They are a long-range shooter, with a quick and agile drive, capable of putting up tons of points when everything goes right.
23-111/83
Wildstang made the finals in their home Chicago regional and won in Indiana. They're getting better, which is scary, and they can put up several hurdles with their roller-based elevator.
24-33/82
The Bees weren't able to win at any of their events, but are a proficient scoring machine none-the-less. Their folding roller claw and elevator allows them to consistently score and makes them a threat in any match.
25-1717/80
The D'Penguineers won San Diego and LA as part of two terrific alliances. They are a quick, consistent, and deadly scoring machine with their elevator and roller intake.
Others receiving votes (points):
365(66),1126(63),25(58),148(55),121(50),191(33),52 5(28),1086(24),1477(24),1731(19),368(18),176(13),7 9(13),47(11),107(10),359(9),126(8),1251 (8),1279(5),58(4), 326(4),100(3),115(2),173(2),195(2),2337(2),503(1), 1806(1)
Divisional and Einstein predictions coming soon...