Predictions Championship 2009: Lunacy for Lunacy

[Looking Forward]

Six weeks of blood, sweat, of tears.
Six weeks of intense competition.
It all boils down to a 60 hour period between Thursday at 7 AM to Saturday at 7PM.
Welcome to the big show, the grand finale. Welcome to Championship.

Arc Cur Gal New
Regional Winners: 24 36 25 33
2x Winners: 2 1 2 1
3x Winners: 0 1 0 0
4x Winners: 0 0 1 0
Regional Wins: 26 39 30 34


The divisions are roughly as balanced as they are most years, and will each be more than capable of forming an alliance that could take it all. It's also possible that the powerhouses might be broken up, and the alliance that emerges from one division could be clearly outclassed by the others.

Each division will have it's own prediction thread, but here's a lay-out of how they will work. "Tips", "locks", "dark horses", and "sleepers" will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that's guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_horse) is a team that has played very well all year but hasn't generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven't been able to put it all together yet, but has some potential to shine in Atlanta if they can play well.

Each division will also have a slightly unique style of play, and that will definitely impact the winners of each. Expect most alliances to consist of three teams capable of scoring moon rocks, but their roles during matches may vary. Most captains will pick within their comfort zone, and rely on strategies that they have tried and have worked in the past. Archimedes will have lots of close matches, with heavy focus on smart driving and moon rock scoring. Super cells and defense will likely play a more prominent role in Curie than any other division, as even many of the best moon rock scoring machines have placed significant value on the super cells in the past here. Galileo is a feast of famine division, with a very loaded top tier, but the weakest bottom of the field as well. That will result in many top machines having a loss of two due to bad qualification pairings, as well as open the door for a chance at a new high score. Even more than any other division, Galileo will be won during alliance selections. Newton is likely the most balanced division, head-to-toe, and will have a lot in common with events like MSC, Philadelphia, and UTC (just with more top level scoring machines than any of them).

[ehochstein]

I agree with you I personally think the best alliance will be one that has two really good dumper/shooter robots and one that is really good at blocking the other team.

[ErikEdhlund]

Honestly I think this year will take a team where you will need 3 really strong scorers.

[Brad Voracek]

And when will the division predictions be posted? Wednesday like usual?

[ATannahill]

Although the supercells could make a big difference during elimination, I think the strategy will not make a difference on Einstein. Also by my logic there will be more than 12 locks per division.

[DBiehl]

There would be 12 locks per division if there were only 12 robots that had a chance of being division finalists or better. There are 6 spots, so 600% to spread the percentage around to 87 bots, and by LF's standards only a few are going to be above 50% chance to make it, in contrast to the teams that are likely to be at 1-2% chance of making it.

That aside, I am looking forward to seeing the prediction threads. Hopefully these threads come out before Wednesday as many teams are leaving Tuesday and Wednesday and the audience for the threads would drop dramatically as not everyone will have a laptop or internet access.

[Rick]

And when will the division predictions be posted? Wednesday like usual?

I would hope that they would be out on Tuesday (or Monday) since most teams will be traveling on all day Wednesday.

[cpeister]

I expect a successful alliance to have all 3 robots with very good shooters/dumpers.

[Katie_UPS]

I expect a successful alliance to have all 3 robots with very good shooters/dumpers.

Honestly I think this year will take a team where you will need 3 really strong scorers.


No offense.

But those aren't really predicitions. I mean, they are INCREDIBLY broad... Seeing as every robot that is competitive is a shooter or dumper on some accord.

[Danny McC]

Noooo I won't be able to get on for the division predictions. Someone in Curie will have to let me know what has been said.

[BrendanB]

Over the years, it seems as though a good alliance should be composed of three robots that are quick on offense and can play mean defense.

But behind the robots are the drivers that also need to be good and be willing to play offense and defense well and be very quick to react to unexpected plays on the field.

[R.C.]

As the season has progressed, shooters and dumpers have both done equally well. Some being better than others. My prediction is all 3 shooters, the third pick should be able to run super cells and be able to play defense while scoring.

-RC

[DustinWyke]

I am waiting to see what teams have gotten their crap together sense their last regional and are going to do alot better than expected.

Having 3 able dumpers with one or two really capable defensive robots seems to be working well. Great example that i can think of is 330. They scored well and then pinned amazingly well. to bad they wernt able to make it to champs..

thats my input. dont have much experience on these things though..

[Justin Montois]

I think two good scorers and a SuperCell specialist with some scoring ability will get it done. So many people are overlooking SuperCells.

[Taylor]

And when will the division predictions be posted? Wednesday like usual?

I hope to get my predictions out by Sunday afternoon.

[Cynette]

I hope to get my predictions out by Sunday afternoon.Ah, so you are part of the "Looking Back" Team?!? :P

[Taylor]

Ah, so you are part of the "Looking Back" Team?!? :P

Let's just say I am Looking Forward



to having the most accurate predictions.

[Daniel_LaFleur]

My prediction (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=827251&postcount=6) for the winning alliance on Einstien still stands ;)

[Stuart]

67 111 and 704. winning alliance. done.

[prettycolors91]

67 111 and 704. winning alliance. done.


:D :D :D

[Chris is me]

Defense is absolutely going to matter.

When the opposing alliance can beat your alliance in sheer volume of dumps (say you're facing down Winnovation), there's a net gain in sacrificing a whole robot to keep them held down in a corner, even if that robot would otherwise be making dumps. A weaker alliance's best shot is to use their third pick to harass and annoy the biggest scorer, preferably setting up pins on them for the offensive robots on the field.

The scores will probably be in the 60-90 range for the whole event. Robots that advance are good enough to not easily be scored on, and the only reliable way to get points will be through cunning driving setting up favorable situations. For example, following a robot as it drives toward a wall is a very favorable action for the robot doing the following. Scoring is going to be a game of "who screws up first", and defensive pin robots are invaluable in making this happen.

[hillale]

Defense is absolutely going to matter.

When the opposing alliance can beat your alliance in sheer volume of dumps (say you're facing down Winnovation), there's a net gain in sacrificing a whole robot to keep them held down in a corner, even if that robot would otherwise be making dumps.

There is also merit to strategically dealing with strategic defense. I'm just glad the videos from Wisconsin aren't up :D

[LWakefield]

I say team 67 and team 217 are my predictions to do good.

[AlexD744]

I say team 67 and team 217 are my predictions to do good.

A bit profound.:p

[Peter Matteson]

Will the full predicitons be up tonight? We hope to see them before travelling.

[Nick Lawrence]

1114, 2056, 1503


Hah! Seriously, in this game, anything can happen.

[Kims Robot]

Does anyone have a full list (team numbers) of all the Regional Winners attending championships? Im guessing Looking Forward does by the data...

[Karthik]

Does anyone have a full list (team numbers) of all the Regional Winners attending championships? Im guessing Looking Forward does by the data...

16 Newton MO
39 Archimedes AZ
45 Galileo DC
56 Galileo NY
56 Galileo PA
61 Archimedes MA
65 Galileo GL
67 Galileo GL
67 Galileo GRL
67 Galileo DT1
67 Galileo OC
68 Curie GRL
70 Curie GG
71 Galileo MO
79 Curie MN2
85 Newton GT
88 Newton VA
111 Galileo IL
121 Newton NH
126 Newton CT
148 Newton DA
175 Curie NH
179 Galileo FL
188 Curie ROC
190 Curie MA
207 Galileo CA
217 Curie DT1
217 Curie OC
217 Curie GL
222 Archimedes PIT
233 Newton FL
234 Newton DC
245 Curie GG
247 Curie GT
254 Curie SJ
292 Newton IN
329 Curie LI
341 Curie SDC
346 Curie VA
353 Archimedes LI
365 Newton PA
368 Newton HI
395 Curie PA
399 Curie CO
418 Galileo DA
488 Archimedes WA
620 Newton DC
624 Archimedes LA
668 Curie SAC
704 Galileo TX
768 Newton MD
832 Newton GA
852 Newton SJ
868 Archimedes IN
931 Archimedes KC
971 Galileo SJ
973 Galileo CA
987 Galileo NV
1013 Curie NV
1024 Curie IN
1038 Newton OH
1086 Newton VA
1099 Curie MA
1114 Archimedes ON
1155 Newton CT
1165 Curie AZ
1195 Galileo MD
1208 Galileo KC
1218 Archimedes PIT
1318 Galileo OR
1332 Galileo CO
1332 Galileo SDC
1421 Archimedes TX
1425 Curie WA
1477 Galileo LA
1507 Newton ROC
1561 Archimedes OK
1569 Newton WA
1622 Curie NV
1625 Newton IL
1625 Newton WI
1649 Archimedes FL
1657 Newton IS
1675 Curie IL
1706 Newton MO
1714 Newton MN
1717 Galileo SAC
1726 Newton AZ
1742 Galileo OK
1743 Archimedes PIT
1747 Curie OH
1771 Curie SC
1796 Curie NY
1806 Curie KC
1807 Archimedes NY
1893 Curie MD
1902 Galileo CT
1918 Newton MI
1923 Galileo NJ
1983 Curie OR
2004 Newton OK
2039 Curie WI
2056 Archimedes WAT
2056 Archimedes ON
2173 Curie LA
2185 Curie WAT
2185 Curie ON
2194 Curie WI
2214 Galileo IS
2230 Galileo IS
2344 Newton NJ
2348 Galileo HI
2354 Archimedes DA
2415 Archimedes SC
2415 Archimedes GA
2443 Curie HI
2470 Archimedes MN
2543 Archimedes SDC
2549 Newton MN2
2587 Archimedes TX
2609 Newton WAT
2621 Curie NH
2635 Curie OR
2655 Archimedes GA
2659 Newton CA
2753 Archimedes NJ
2826 Archimedes MN
2970 Newton MN2
2996 Newton CO

[Taylor]

Hey, how did Karthik get LF's data?



hmmm....

[Peter Matteson]

Hey, how did Karthik get LF's data?



hmmm....

You got that backwards, everyone knows even LF uses the Simbots scouting database posted in the whitepaper section of CD:
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2236

I suggest downloading to get all information on the thi season's performance of the teams you'll be playing this week.

[smurfgirl]

I don't know if I believe that Galileo will be won in the alliance selections... I'll have to evaluate that upon seeing the alliances. (:

[Peter Matteson]

I don't know if I believe that Galileo will be won in the alliance selections... I'll have to evaluate that upon seeing the alliances. (:

You know better than that. :D
It's the best alliance that wins the regional/division/Championship not the best team, and this has become far more apparent in the 3 team on the field era from 2005 on. Prior to that 1 superstar team could carry partners and win everything. In 2005 that changed and not having good deep pick list would bite high seeds more and more in ATL. In a 90 team division it's easier for a lower seed to unseat a high seed because of the depth of the field, by picking wisely.

My $0.02.

[smurfgirl]

That's what I'm saying... it's not evident that any particular team is destined to seed first and seize the field, which is why I'm waiting until Saturday afternoon after alliance selections before I make any predictions.
My third pick on Archi last year was all about well-rounded alliances ;)

[Karthik]

You got that backwards, everyone knows even LF uses the Simbots scouting database posted in the whitepaper section of CD:
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2236

I suggest downloading to get all information on the thi season's performance of the teams you'll be playing this week.

Also, the key to using this database effectively is to use the built in Excel filters. To get the data on all regional winners attending the championship, I simply had to go to the "World Sortable" tab, filter out "Not attending championship" in the division column, and filter in "Regional Winner" & "State Champion" in the result column. Using these filters you can generate all sorts of interesting data.

[qwezzen]

67 111 and 704. winning alliance. done.

This alliance appears to have a lot of potential. I see 704 with a lot potential in itself. Since apparently they haven't gone to the championships before, they may be overlooked by some championship regular teams.

Items of interest, in Lonestar regionals, they had 2 or the top 3 scores in qualifying and in the 2nd round of the regional finals, one alliance robot had electrical problems and wasn't moving. They still only lost by 2 points.