Registration 2011

[Mark McLeod]

In lieu of pondering game hints...
Here are the average number of events that teams hailing from different places are signed up to attend as of New Year's.
Delaware's two teams come out on top by attending 5 events between them.
This includes Championship (less ~200 teams that will add-in after winning), but is missing the Michigan State event of course.

All MI 3rd event registrations have also been backed out. All but a single team has 2 MI events, but 7 MI teams are playing at one or more outside Regionals in addition.

Avg # ---- # ------- #
Events - Teams - Events - Place

2.50 ------- 2 ----- 5 ----- DE
2.11 ----- 171 -- 360 ----- MI
2.00 ------- 3 ----- 6 ----- IA
2.00 ------- 1 ----- 2 ----- Chile
1.69 ------ 48 ---- 81 ----- PA
1.66 ------ 32 ---- 53 ----- NH
1.60 ------- 5 ----- 8 ----- RI
1.60 ------- 5 ----- 8 ----- WV
1.57 ------ 42 ---- 66 ----- CT
1.57 ------ 35 ---- 55 ----- IN
1.57 ------ 65 --- 102 ----- Canada-ON
1.56 ------ 32 ---- 50 ----- WI
1.56 ------ 34 ---- 53 ----- MD
1.52 ----- 175 --- 266 ----- CA
1.50 ------ 64 ---- 96 ----- NJ
1.50 ------- 4 ----- 6 ----- AR
1.44 ------ 43 ---- 62 ----- IL
1.44 ------ 25 ---- 36 ----- SC
1.40 ------- 5 ----- 7 ----- Brazil
1.36 ----- 127 --- 173 ----- NY
1.35 ------ 48 ---- 65 ----- OH
1.34 ------ 53 ---- 71 ----- MA
1.33 ------ 60 ---- 80 ----- FL
1.31 ------ 52 ---- 68 ----- MO
1.29 ------ 68 ---- 88 ----- VA
1.28 ------ 36 ---- 46 ----- NC
1.27 ------ 11 ---- 14 ----- NV
1.26 ------ 35 ---- 44 ----- OR
1.25 ------ 40 ---- 50 ----- AZ
1.25 ------- 8 ---- 10 ----- ME
1.25 ------- 4 ----- 5 ----- Turkey
1.23 ------ 26 ---- 32 ----- HI
1.21 ------ 14 ---- 17 ----- DC
1.18 ------ 82 ---- 97 ----- WA
1.18 ------ 11 ---- 13 ----- AL
1.17 ------- 6 ----- 7 ----- MT
1.16 ----- 145 --- 168 ----- TX
1.16 ------ 38 ---- 44 ----- GA
1.16 ------ 19 ---- 22 ----- KS
1.13 ----- 130 --- 147 ----- MN
1.13 ------ 48 ---- 54 ----- OK
1.11 ------ 35 ---- 39 ----- CO
1.09 ------ 11 ---- 12 ----- MS
1.08 ------ 24 ---- 26 ----- LA
1.08 ------ 13 ---- 14 ----- ID
1.07 ------ 14 ---- 15 ----- KY
1.06 ------ 16 ---- 17 ----- TN
1.06 ------ 18 ---- 19 ----- UT
1.02 ------ 49 ---- 50 ----- Israel
1.00 ------ 14 ---- 14 ----- Canada-QC
1.00 ------ 12 ---- 12 ----- Mexico
1.00 ------- 3 ----- 3 ----- ND
1.00 ------- 3 ----- 3 ----- VT
1.00 ------- 3 ----- 3 ----- WY
1.00 ------- 2 ----- 2 ----- AK
1.00 ------- 2 ----- 2 ----- NM
1.00 ------- 2 ----- 2 ----- PR
1.00 ------- 1 ----- 1 ----- Australia
1.00 ------- 1 ----- 1 ----- Bosnia
1.00 ------- 1 ----- 1 ----- Canada-AB
1.00 ------- 1 ----- 1 ----- Germany
1.00 ------- 1 ----- 1 ----- Spain
1.00 ------- 2 ----- 2 ----- Great Britain

[Mark McLeod]

(See following posts for explanation of the Seattle Shuffle. The teams will all return as they are reapportioned to evenly distribute rookies among veterans.)

There was a big loss of 40 registered teams yesterday.
Lost:
29 Washington state
6 Ontario Canada
5 singletons from other locations.The double Regional in Seattle imploded as it struck 47 teams from instate and surrounding areas who’d signed up. One new team added in.
The combined double regional would only amount to 52 teams now.

2011 Totals to-date:
2043 teams
412 new teams (5 of them are new veteran teams, 3 are returning from long, long ago > 7 years)
18 total defunct veterans have returned

[Foster]

There was a big loss of 40 registered teams yesterday.
Lost: 29 Washington state

Are those all rookie teams?

[Mark McLeod]

Are those all rookie teams?
Roughly a third of the lost Washington teams were rookies.

[mwibbels]

Mark,

They are in the process of realigning the teams on the fields to get an even distribution of experienced teams. As part of the process, the teams are being removed from one regional and being assigned to the other. The reassignment hasn't occurred yet. We will be playing in Seattle, but were removed from the Olympic regional on Friday in preparation for the reassignment. Expect that our situation is similar to most of the teams that you have noted the loss of.

Best regards,

[Mark McLeod]

Thanks for the explanation. That's a relief to know.

Paul Woo (PaW) pointed me to this link (http://www.firstwa.org/FRC/Seattle2011/tabid/287/Default.aspx) explaining what's going on in Seattle.

[waialua359]

Dallas waitlisted team notification has been postponed indefinitely, so we decided to drop it today.
We are now hoping for somewhere '"slightly" closer.:rolleyes:

[dodar]

Dallas waitlisted team notification has been postponed indefinitely, so we decided to drop it today.
We are now hoping for somewhere '"slightly" closer.:rolleyes:

Well Orlando is kinda close to Dallas :p

[Koko Ed]

Dallas waitlisted team notification has been postponed indefinitely, so we decided to drop it today.
We are now hoping for somewhere '"slightly" closer.:rolleyes:
Try FLR.
One of the few regionals that can still get the occasional Michigan team to come and play outside of the districts.
Pllus you can be (briefly) entertained by the snow(we tend to get lots and lots of the stuff).

[waialua359]

We are actually going to Orlando, but during week "7" for the VEX World Championships.

We have to go to St. Louis or farther on 5 separate occasions from now to IRI. FLR would have broke our bank.:o

[Mark McLeod]

I forgot to mention earlier that the Toronto double-regional also did it's own version of the shuffle on a much smaller scale.
Three teams from East and three from West switched places.

The team count is back up to 2081.
Still watching scattered teams come and go (only onesies, twosies).

[waialua359]

Vegas just added one more team. ;)

[Mark McLeod]

I noticed that :)

There's still a bit of volatility with 12 events adding 15 teams and losing 4 over the past day or so.

Total number of teams is 2080.

[Mark McLeod]

This got posted in an unrelated thread, so I decided to post it here as well where we talk about such things.

Here are charts of 2011 teams by country (12 of them).

Here are the 2011 international numbers/percentages:
US -------------- 1925 -------- 92.50%
Canada ----------- 80 ---------- 3.84%
Israel ------------- 48 ---------- 2.31%
Mexico ------------ 12 ---------- 0.58%
Brazil -------------- 5 ---------- 0.24%
Turkey ------------- 4 ---------- 0.19%
United Kingdom --- 2 ---------- 0.10%
Australia ----------- 1 ---------- 0.05%
Chile --------------- 1 ---------- 0.05%
Germany ---------- 1 ---------- 0.05%
Herzegovina ------ 1 ---------- 0.05%
Spain -------------- 1 ---------- 0.05%

[Mark McLeod]

The payment deadline for Championships has passed and we're now down to 122 119 pre-registered teams and dropping.
That's from a start of 149 teams.

Currently registered teams for the Championship are from:

(1) Chile
(1) Israel
(4) Canada
(116) USA

[Mark McLeod]

It looks like FIRST has begun to clear the Championship waitlist.

The number of teams dropped to 114 or so, now it's bounced back up to 125 as teams accept off the waitlist.

There is still minor action on the Regional/District event lists. Four changed in the last 24 hours.

One team has dropped out altogether.
FIRST now shows 2076 teams.

[Mark McLeod]

2074 total teams, after having just lost a Lone Star rookie.
Some event team lists have continued minor fluctuations up through this posting.

266 net gain (14.7%) - percentage-wise not as good as 2008 and earlier, but much better than the past two years.
416 (20.1%) new teams - ~5% better than last year, but on a par with 2009 and earlier.
18 resurrected veteran teams
# teams lost was ~equal (+1) to last year. Retention rate was the highest since 2003 with an 8.3% (adjusted) loss of veteran teams.
Not including Championship,

23% of FRC teams are attending extra events, including 11 Michigan 3rd district teams (still leaving 7 unused MI District slots).

[Mark McLeod]

2067 Total teams
406 Rookie teams
412 New teams (19.9% - 2008 and earlier had higher percentages of new teams))
18 resurrected veteran teams who did not play in 2010
259 Net team gain (14.3%)
91.5% 2010 team retention rate (only 2003 had a higher (+.5%) retention rate over ALL FRC years)
271 teams currently registered for Championships. (heading for ~350)My team is too far down the overflow waitlist, so we got this FIRST email:

Greetings Championship Wait List Team:

Over the past four weeks of competition a high number of qualifying teams have accepted their invitation to attend the Championship event, and we expect this to be the case for weeks five and six. We have reviewed the Championship wait list, and based on your team’s position, it is highly unlikely we will be able to offer your team a spot to attend.

There does remain a chance that a registered team(s) could drop out, however this chance is very small and it could come as late as a week - even days - before the Championship takes place. If your team would like to stay on the list to be considered for a "short notice invite" in the event a spot opens, kindly respond to this email with your interest. Please include your team number. Teams that do not respond or respond they are not interested will be taken off the list. Teams that are interested will remain on the list in date order (i.e., the date they registered for the wait list via TIMS.)

For those of you who have completed your events for the season we want to thank and congratulate you! We look forward to having you with us in 2012. For those of you with events coming up, we wish you the best of luck in qualifying for the Championship.

Warm Regards,

FRC Teams

[Kevin Ray]

I have to say, for a team who had waited anxiously week after week for a notification from FRC that they are now off the wait list and invited to the Championship event to have received this notice would have been the most disheartening mail to have received all year. I really feel for those teams who cannot attend yet have both the funding and desire to attend.
Back in 2000 when I attended my first "National Event" at Epcott, pretty much all you had to do was have the $ and you made it to the Nationals. Little did I know that those seemingly plentiful slots would become all so sought after as years passed. It's been a very quick 11 years. I wonder what the Championship Event will be like in 2022? How difficult will it be to get into when there are 3000+ active teams. We were so lucky to have joined when we did.

Good luck to all teams attending the Championship Event.

[Gary Dillard]

So what's the magic number for the Championship this year? The team list shows 346 right now, last year there were 344, 348 in '09, 340 in '08, and 344 in '07 and '06.

[Mark McLeod]

Champs is up to 351 352 teams now.
Looks like two teams were pulled off the waitlist this week - 188 & 1732
Overall it looks like 7 teams were pulled off the waitlist after Regionals ended (and one team gave up their spot).

2065 total teams
411 new teams

[MarcD79]

I have to say, for a team who had waited anxiously week after week for a notification from FRC that they are now off the wait list and invited to the Championship event to have received this notice would have been the most disheartening mail to have received all year. I really feel for those teams who cannot attend yet have both the funding and desire to attend.
Back in 2000 when I attended my first "National Event" at Epcott, pretty much all you had to do was have the $ and you made it to the Nationals. Little did I know that those seemingly plentiful slots would become all so sought after as years passed. It's been a very quick 11 years. I wonder what the Championship Event will be like in 2022? How difficult will it be to get into when there are 3000+ active teams. We were so lucky to have joined when we did.

Good luck to all teams attending the Championship Event.


I think FIRST needs to look at the increase of teams each year & increase the amount of fields for the Championships. I know there are already 5 fields. Why not add a "Davinci" field. This would allow another 80 teams to participate.

[Vikesrock]

I think FIRST needs to look at the increase of teams each year & increase the amount of fields for the Championships. I know there are already 5 fields. Why not add a "Davinci" field. This would allow another 80 teams to participate.

What does a 5 alliance Einstein bracket look like?

[Joe Ross]

What does a 5 alliance Einstein bracket look like?

Round Robin.

[Racer26]

Alternately, find a much bigger venue, and add "Davinci" "Gauss" "Fermat" and "Fibonacci" fields, and turn Einstein into a Quarter/Semi/Final setup.

[Pjohn1959]

I agree. Turn 4 divisions of 85+ teams, into 8 divisions of 60 teams. That would be a total of 480 teams that could come to Championships. That's almost an additional 140 teams that could experience the Championship. It would also give teams a better chance to get to the eliminations on Saturday.

There are plenty of venues that could host something like that. And think of the additional revenues for FIRST and surrounding hotels and restaurants. :)

[StashZabriski]

Don't forget though...by adding 1, 2, 4 fields you're adding a HUGE amount of money that needs to be raised/spent. Not to mention you're going to need another huge lump of volunteers to setup, run, break down the fields. Not to mention more safety advisors, judges, other key volunteers to handle the extra 80 teams.

It's not just a "lets add 80 more teams" type of situation.

[RMiller]

There are plenty of venues that could host something like that.

Which venues? Are you planning to include FTC, FLL, and JFLL (not to mention a potential college version)?
I seem to recall last year when there was speculation about where future championships were going to be the list of potential places was quite small.

[Racer26]

I actually think you could fit 8 FRC fields on the floor of a NFL stadium. Atlanta seemed to have a TON of extra space in between the fields that was not optimally used.

[Racer26]

Pros of a CMP format with 8 60-team divisions instead of 4 85-team divisions:

More teams get to go to CMP
Twice as many teams get to compete in Eliminations at CMP.
Everyone gets to play more qualification matches, which means the elimination alliances *should* be better quality, due to a more accurate ranking.
Full elimination bracket on Einstein

Cons:

(For reference, an NFL field is 360x160, or 57,600 sqft)

Need 13 fields. (Based on Week 3 this year, 14 Logomotion fields exist, possibly 15, since I understand FIRST HQ keeps a spare field in a truck ready to go at all times through competition season.)
Need space for ~13 fields: 8 divisional fields, Einstein, plus 4 practice fields. (50x80' footprint each, 4000sq ft * 13 = 52,000sqft.)
Need space for ~500 teams (10x10 pits, 50,000sqft)
Need seating for ~500 teams worth of people (500 x 20 = 10,000. 10,000 people on 24" centers = 240,000" of linear space, or 20,000 ft of grandstand rows which are usually 2.5' deep, so 50,000sqft of grandstands)

Thats 152,000 sqft, before you even account for aisleways, and all the sponsor booths, and FTC/(J)FLL/Collegiate stuff.

8 divisional fields, plus a 9th field (einstein), plus a 10th field sized footprint (FTC) = 40,000 sq ft. it CAN be fit onto a NFL field, especially when you consider the floor of an NFL stadium extends past the edges of the football field. (This is why i also don't understand the need to move 2 fields into the pits this year. Dome floor has TONS of space)

The 10 footprints could be stacked 4 end to end, on each side, with 1 between the sides on each end. would result in a 320x180 total footprint.

[Mark McLeod]

Sorry to bring registration back into the Registration thread, but I thought an answer in another thread belonged here as well. Mostly, so it can be located next season when someone looks for it.

---------------------
86.8% of the 2010 rookies returned to play again in 2011. (37 of 281 did not return)

You need to compare that to the 2011 overall return rate of 91.5% (91.2% if you discount the rookies who did return) to make a valid comparison next year.

There are some historical numbers here (http://www.team358.org/files/frc_records/track_teams.php.htm) for how long teams last after their rookie year. It needs updating for this year and last.
A description of what the chart means is given by the author here (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=680795&postcount=123)

[Pjohn1959]

Mark,

Can you explain the numbers that you used in the chart. I guess i don't understand how you get 100% from 2009, etc. and what is the 1672 represent?

Which venues?

The George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston and the Henry Gonzalez Convention Center in San Antonio would hold everything in one place.

[Mark McLeod]

The original author of that particular chart is our webmaster and he described here (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=680795&postcount=123) how the values were generated.
See if that helps any.

P.S.
The 1672 should be 1677 (the total number of teams in 2009).
This chart was last generated before the final registration quite settled out that year.

[dodar]

Mark,

Can you explain the numbers that you used in the chart. I guess i don't understand how you get 100% from 2009, etc. and what is the 1672 represent?



The George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston and the Henry Gonzalez Convention Center in San Antonio would hold everything in one place.

The Orange County Convetion Center in Orlando could hold World's like 50 times at the same time.

[RMiller]

The George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston and the Henry Gonzalez Convention Center in San Antonio would hold everything in one place.

The Orange County Convetion Center in Orlando could hold World's like 50 times at the same time.

Looks like Houston and Orlando would be fine from a space perspective. I would question San Antonio (size of convention center).

For reference, at St. Louis, the five halls are 340,000 sq. ft. not including the dome space. That space looks to be mostly used from the FIRST provided maps as to how tight it is hard to saw from the map. The dome is 105,000 - 145,000 sq ft of additional area.

Is a space that would require bleachers/stands for all fields acceptable? Where would you have a near 500 team FRC group sit for the Einstein matches and awards (more if FTC and FLL groups are still around)? Ultimately, that question can be boiled down to this: is getting away from a stadium/convention center set-up acceptable?

When I asked about what venues, I had in my head the stadium/convention center set up. Last year around this time, I think the three places that came up were Atlanta, St. Louis, and Indy. I may go back and look to see if any others were mentioned.

[Mark McLeod]

A late addition, here is a breakout of the 2010 teams that didn't return this season. The pie wedges are % of all of the 2011 season teams that dropped out.
The bulk (70%) of the dropouts had 4 or fewer years of experience.
The average experience of all 2010 teams happens to be 4.1 years.

P.S.
Here are the dropouts from 2010 and 2009 just so we can see that the trend in dropouts has been gradually shrinking for the 1-year teams over the past three seasons. 3 year teams also dropped a bit this year. Two seasons ago the bulk (70%) of the dropouts had 3 or fewer years of experience.
The 4-year team drop rate tripled this year alongside more modest jumps in the loss of 6 & 7-year teams.

[DarrinMunter]

It would be neat to see if any of these teams get restarted next year.

[Mark McLeod]

Each year FRC recovers roughly 12% of the lost teams.

[GaryVoshol]

The average experience of all 2010 teams happens to be 4.1 years.Mean or median?

[Mark McLeod]

The mean

4.3 is the mean for 2011 season ending teams, i.e., the newest teams are credited with having earned 1 year of experience.

[GaryVoshol]

Wow. That would mean the median was somewhere in the 3.6-3.8 range, by my guess. Median would probably be a better measurement of this, because age has a fixed lower bound (rookie = 0 or 1) but no fixed upper bound (except for the 20-year age of FIRST).

[Mark McLeod]

The median for both 2010 and 2011 is 4.
The values I'm dealing with are only whole numbers from one to twenty.

[mesamb1]

I am a little confused, your 2009 and 2010 graphs have an orange bar after the 11 year drop out teams that does not seem to be on the access. 12th year drop out?

The years that make me sad are the 11 year plus drop out team. I always wonder what was the straw that broke the camels back for them.

Making up a causation here: The fact the last large drop out group is the four year group, cause me to wonder if a large hump for teams is recruitment that dries up after the initial freshman graduate?
[I realize that alot of these teams have issues with the other big humps(mentor retention, finances, school support, parent support, ect.), but what fun is data if you don't come to some wild conclusions]

[Taylor]

I am a little confused, your 2009 and 2010 graphs have an orange bar after the 11 year drop out teams that does not seem to be on the access. 12th year drop out?

The years that make me sad are the 11 year plus drop out team. I always wonder what was the straw that broke the camels back for them.

Making up a causation here: The fact the last large drop out group is the four year group, cause me to wonder if a large hump for teams is recruitment that dries up after the initial freshman graduate?
[I realize that alot of these teams have issues with the other big humps(mentor retention, finances, school support, parent support, ect.), but what fun is data if you don't come to some wild conclusions]

I'd guess it's a combination of student recruitment and money. Our 3rd year was by far our toughest year - since the 2-year NASA grants expired, and we hadn't yet created many strong community partnerships, it was very touch-and-go. Combined with the stresses of being expected to compete at a high level with rather limited experience, I could see a lot of burnout in the 3-4 year range. Once we got over that hump, I woudn't call it "smooth sailing" but we did gain a lot of perspective as a team.
FIRST's culture has historically been to celebrate rookies and seasoned veterans. Although this is starting to change, I can see a lot of 3-4 year teams falling through the cracks, when perhaps they may need the most help of all. (Yes, I realize this has been thoroughly discussed before, but that doesn't make it any less important.)

[Mark McLeod]

I am a little confused, your 2009 and 2010 graphs have an orange bar after the 11 year drop out teams that does not seem to be on the access.
That's my error in the legend. I deleted 12 from the 2011 legend because it was zero, but then copied the chart to reuse for 2010 and 2009 and forgot to add 12 back on the legend. The orange is as you guessed the 12-year teams who dropped out.

There doesn't seem to be any geographical correlation for the 4-year teams who dropped out in 2011. They are evenly spread out.
It may be related to the original members, including the teacher/advisors/mentors/students, moving on or just looking for a new challenge to get involved in.

Students are involved for ~3 to 4 years, mentors for 5.2 (according to Brandeis) - might be a correlation for people who don't place importance on succession planning - recruitment of students/mentors/teachers/advisors, fundraising for the generations that come after you, leadership & skill transferral, the wearing out of political support.

P.S.
No teams with more than 14 years experience have ever dropped out.