2011 Newton Division

[Billfred]

Okay, so we might be the last ones to start the thread...but man, this is looking like fun. MORT, Bomb Squad, Raider Robotix, RUSH, AIR, Krunch, TJ^2, Swamp Thing, Thunderchickens, Robowranglers, GUS, Pink, Cyber Blue, STARBot, Martians, RoboBees, Falcons, Spartonics, Rolling Thunder, Pi-oneers, Driven, WiredCats...and those are just the ones I noticed on the first read-through.

Fun indeed.

[stupidgerman]

TJ^2 is super excited for championships and we plan on making it farther than we have in a long while.

[tim-tim]

The RoboBees are excited! We look forward to competing with the best!

[davidalln]

Fantastic, competitive division. Can't wait to see some of our friends we've met in the past (148, 16, and 2815 to name a few)!

(word for all the teams here, scout the crap out of 2815. billfred effect)

[speedbuggy76]

Yep, 2415's excited to be there! We've made a lot of improvements after seeing 148's impressive robot at Alamo and hope to be really competitive. See you all in St. Louis!

[Rick]

AIR Strike is very excited to play with this solid division in Newton! Our drivers were ready to keep going after our week 6 regional win in Boston. Luckily, they won't have to wait long!

Let's have some fun Newton!!!

[The Lucas]

The_Lucas, thanks man - do you think you could do the same for Newton?

I know i cannot wait to work with the some of the best teams in FIRST.

Lets have some fun!

By Tim's request here is the High and Avg OPR (hat tip to Travis) for Newton
Team High OPR Event
148 71.2375 DA
1503 65.4338 ON
525 64.0826 MN
217 61.0084 GL
234 58.7022 TN
2415 57.9232 NC
25 57.0447 VA
1538 55.8841 SJ
1730 54.0757 MN2
11 48.9442 VA
2122 47.4871 UT
1676 46.3775 NJ
27 46.2892 GL
3138 45.3591 OH
624 45.21 CO
78 43.8494 MA
88 42.9035 MA
16 41.7728 IL
3284 41.255 KC
179 40.8756 FL
233 40.3248 DC
2848 40.0142 DA
836 39.8872 MD
494 39.8713 WC
340 36.9526 MD
337 35.395 TN
1731 35.0313 VA
3547 33.77 GL
302 31.3985 GL
2046 28.1671 OR
2481 28.083 WI
2809 27.7862 ON2
2338 27.6187 IL
3009 26.1099 NV
1100 25.9251 MA
386 24.4725 FL
1108 23.3394 OK
3483 22.5608 UT
811 21.8315 NH
1511 21.4859 DC
1710 21.0703 KC
842 19.9639 AZ
3456 19.801 SAC
2614 19.7047 PIT
447 17.9449 IN
3536 15.4652 GG
228 15.0617 WOR
3103 14.8195 TX
3344 14.5192 GA
980 14.1164 CA
236 14.0365 WOR
3792 13.9452 MO
79 13.3139 TN
2039 13.0261 WI
2437 12.454 HI
1764 11.3137 KC
1604 8.83134 FL
2797 8.26855 FL
2974 7.5549 GA
3880 6.48107 HI
2662 5.34745 AZ
2815 5.09151 GA
2264 4.889 MN
1942 4.81098 IS
3358 4.64156 IS
3612 4.44737 IL
1502 4.282 WC
3242 3.76525 FL
2342 3.6174 NH
3748 3.2073 MD
2655 3.16367 GA
3622 2.97556 FL
1984 2.83606 KC
2197 2.65654 OH
3478 1.32885 STX
3126 1.31455 WA
2080 0.557365 LA
353 0.366266 LI
1829 -0.00750979 VA
3521 -0.534505 CA
1801 -1.15805 TX
1165 -1.28295 AZ
2660 -1.57254 WA
3278 -1.97913 MN2
3505 -2.06727 SJ
1195 -2.41779 MD
3472 -5.75581 OR


Team Avg OPR Num Events
148 63.8802 2
217 54.46538 5
1503 52.3854 2
234 50.20583333 3
1538 48.0537 2
1730 46.32045 2
525 46.22715 2
1676 45.9341 2
25 44.79725 2
2415 44.11483333 3
624 43.162 2
11 41.1454 2
179 40.8756 1
16 40.103 2
3284 39.2017 2
836 37.083 2
1731 35.0313 1
2122 34.89995 2
27 34.79106667 3
2848 34.7166 2
78 33.8625 2
233 33.55665 2
340 32.47045 2
88 31.1558 2
3138 30.46705 2
494 29.76053333 3
2481 28.083 1
2338 27.6187 1
3009 26.1099 1
337 25.5519 2
842 25.1371 1
302 24.5795 3
386 24.4725 1
1108 23.3394 1
3483 22.5608 1
811 21.8315 1
3547 21.132162 5
1710 21.0703 1
3456 19.801 1
2046 18.829625 2
447 17.9449 1
1511 17.8056 2
2614 16.93915 2
228 15.0617 1
3344 14.5192 1
2809 14.439295 2
3536 14.28806667 3
236 14.0365 1
3792 13.9452 1
2039 13.0261 1
1100 12.9690601 2
980 12.15625 2
1604 8.83134 1
79 8.758955 2
2797 8.26855 1
2437 7.41271 2
3103 7.324498 2
1764 7.11399 2
3880 6.48107 1
2264 4.889 1
1942 4.81098 1
3358 4.64156 1
3612 4.44737 1
2974 4.325965 2
2815 4.208905 2
1502 3.88028 3
3242 3.76525 1
2342 3.6174 1
3748 3.2073 1
2662 3.20138 1
3622 2.97556 1
1984 2.83606 1
3126 2.4987 1
2197 2.04069 2
3478 1.32885 1
2655 0.73525 2
2080 0.557365 1
353 0.366266 1
1829 -0.00750979 1
3521 -0.534505 1
1165 -0.585371 1
1801 -1.15805 1
3278 -1.97913 1
3505 -2.06727 1
2660 -2.30523 1
1195 -2.41779 1
3472 -5.75581 1

[tim-tim]

Thanks Brian! I wil be with 401 at Champs, so I look forward to working with MOE again

[LightWaves1636]

Yay! I'm so happy to see so many teams in Newton this year! :)

[Meredith Novak]

And there is a Newton anniversary on this day (April 15): http://www.wired.com/thisdayintech/2011/04/0415isaac-newton-apple-story/

[Chexposito]

it's good to be in the same division as 148 again. look forward to competing against and with them along with all the other competition. especially our kc regional partners 525. good to be back with them again. good to compete with bomb squad before the cowtown throw down.

btw Team Driven is ready for more logomotion... new wrist is all i have to say to those pesky claw crushing defensive teams :)

[Justin Montois]

If I have to be stuck in the pits 2 out of the 3 days, im happy it's with the teams in the Newton Division.

Instead of calling out all the amazing teams by name im just going to say that I can't wait for St. Louis, the Newton Division is going to be rocking and we are going to make Newton THE divsion to watch.

IIIISSSAAAAACCCCCC!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chexposito]

i'm looking for a robowrangler and/or thunderchickens shirt. i've got several Team Driven. pm me if you're willing to trade

[BrendanB]

Wow this will be fun to watch!

[Austin2046]

Team 2046 Bear Metal, is excited and ready to play with all the other great teams on Newton this year.

I will say, i'm a little intimidated, but i'm sure we can hold our own, maybe even turn a few heads, and as always we'll learn a lot. It should be a blast.

[tim-tim]

i'm looking for a robowrangler and/or thunderchickens shirt. i've got several Team Driven. pm me if you're willing to trade

I wish you luck my friend! They are hard to come by these days

[SteveGPage]

TJ^2 is super excited for championships and we plan on making it farther than we have in a long while.

If I have to be stuck in the pits 2 out of the 3 days, im happy it's with the teams in the Newton Division.

Instead of calling out all the amazing teams by name im just going to say that I can't wait for St. Louis, the Newton Division is going to be rocking and we are going to make Newton THE divsion to watch.

Glad to see TJ^2 and GRR in Newton with us! Looking forward to playing with and against some of the other legendary teams in Newton, as well!

This looks to be a fun division!

Steve

[NVM92]

IIIISSSAAAAACCCCCC!!!!!!!!!!!!

NEWTON!!! :D

[LightWaves1636]

Looking at the line up for Newton, I'm definitely cheering for Newton to have an alliance achieve the perfect 158 score before the other divisions...:)

[PaW]

Team 2046 Bear Metal, is excited and ready to play with all the other great teams on Newton this year.

I will say, i'm a little intimidated, but i'm sure we can hold our own, maybe even turn a few heads, and as always we'll learn a lot. It should be a blast.

Don't forget to HAVE FUN!!

Good luck Bear Metal. We'll be rooting for ya...

[Kit Gerhart]

This will be interesting. Newton should be a real threat on Einstein.

See you in St. Louis

[nuggetsyl]

This will be interesting. Newton should be a real threat on Einstein.

See you in St. Louis
I agree.

[LeelandS]

Team 1126, SparX, will not be in attendance at nationals this year, but we'll be cheering on a number of friends from the Finger Lakes Region. Newton division definitely has my eye this year, and you can be sure I'll be jumping out of my seat just as if I was actually there!

Best of luck to everyone! It's going to be a tough division!

[MikeE]

Newton is going to be a fun and competitive division.

It's great to be in the same division as AirStrike, our winning alliance partners from Boston, 1100 a fellow Massachusetts team, and to be back with friends from our Week 3 trip to Chesapeake, 340, 836, 1195 & 3748.

[I'm also volunteering in the pits, so selfishly I'm very happy that Newton will be competing there Thursday & Saturday.]

[lpickett]

We are looking forward to seeing friends in St. Louis. Paola, Mountain Home, Liberty to name a few. We wish everyone luck and hope Newton does well on Einstein. Looks like several powerhouse groups.

[davepowers]

Ahhhh, this is going to be a good one. Team 228 is extremely pleased with the team selection this year! Keep an eye out for our Glowing;] robot, he's ready for any challenge presented this year! Go Gus!

[rutzman]

Team 2614 is very excited to meet all the great teams on Newton!
We've put in a lot of practice (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HdBnzpUdFk) since Palmetto and we can't wait to put it to good use on the field.

[XaulZan11]

1732 is a last minute addition to Newton! Its been pretty cool to think your season is over for couple of weeks and then receive an email Friday, inviting us to the championship. Should be fun to play with some friends and make some new ones.

[Meredith Novak]

1732 is a last minute addition to Newton! Its been pretty cool to think your season is over for couple of weeks and then receive an email Friday, inviting us to the championship. Should be fun to play with some friends and make some new ones.

Yay!!!! So excited to play with you guys again!

See you in St. Louis!

[The Lucas]

1732 is a last minute addition to Newton! Its been pretty cool to think your season is over for couple of weeks and then receive an email Friday, inviting us to the championship. Should be fun to play with some friends and make some new ones.

Interesting, I bet Blizzard (188) was contacted on Friday as well. They are added and still awaiting a division like you were. I am curious with the timeline of how FIRST fills and posts divisions. Did your invite email come before Divisions were posted around 6PM Eastern? When did you confirm that you would be attending?

It would make sense for there to be one more add to even out the divisions. Although, history shows us that divisions assignment doesn't always make sense. For example in 2009, Newton had 88 teams (http://www2.usfirst.org/2009comp/events/Newton/rankings.html) while Galileo had 86 teams (http://www2.usfirst.org/2009comp/events/Galileo/rankings.html) (the other 2 divisions had 87 teams) :confused: .

I don't understand why FIRST doesn't set the number of teams per division to a multiple of 3 (like 87 or 90) so there are no surrogate matches in qualification. Seeding at Championship is crazy enough without playing additional matches which don't count for some of the participants. There were still enough teams on the wait list and no clear limits (that I can see) to prevent 90 teams/division (and it would only take 3 more matches than 88 teams). Maybe that is something for the future when we are done this fields in the pit experiment :rolleyes:

[XaulZan11]

Interesting, I bet Blizzard (188) was contacted on Friday as well. They are added and still awaiting a division like you were. I am curious with the timeline of how FIRST fills and posts divisions. Did your invite email come before Divisions were posted around 6PM Eastern? When did you confirm that you would be attending?


We recieved the email from FIRST Friday afternoon (1:39pm) and was given until today at noon to accept the invitation. Once we ensured we had enough students interested, we responded to the email last night. It was a little fun to look at the divisions and think which one we would prefer to be in.

We've got a couple improvements to do, driver practice as well as prescouting and some new strategies to work on, but we're be ready to play Thursday.

[Joe Ross]

Similar to what I did in previous years (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=735425&postcount=165), I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

Team OPR Avg Rnk Med Rnk Mod Rnk SD Rnk Max Rnk Min Rnk #1 seed Top 8 Avg QP Med QP Mode QP StdevQP Max QP Min QP
148 71.24 7.13 4.5 2 7.8 42 1 15 76 17.04 18 18 2.41 20 10
1503 65.43 8.6 6 3 7.7 36 1 14 64 16.49 16.5 18 2.38 20 10
525 64.08 9.6 7.5 2 8.3 37 1 9 55 16.27 16 16 2.46 20 10
217 61.01 11.09 10 2 8.8 54 1 7 44 15.73 16 16 2.39 20 8
234 58.70 9.68 7 6 8.1 38 1 8 58 16.31 16 18 2.30 20 11
2415 57.92 11.26 10.5 1 8.0 37 1 10 43 15.8 16 16 2.39 20 10
25 57.04 12.68 10 7 9.2 39 1 5 43 15.4 16 16 2.54 20 10
1538 55.88 10.46 8 4 9.2 48 1 5 54 16.06 16 18 2.49 20 8
1730 54.08 14.78 12.5 4 10.1 41 1 2 33 14.96 14.5 14 2.62 20 10
11 48.94 17.28 16 12 11.2 50 1 5 26 14.43 14 14 2.61 20 8
2122 47.49 18.78 15.5 5 13.7 57 1 4 27 14.29 14 14 3.08 20 8
1676 46.38 19.72 17 14 14.1 65 1 2 23 14.02 14 14 3.06 20 6
27 46.29 22.02 20 9 14.4 65 1 2 17 13.56 14 14 3.16 20 6
3138 45.36 21.01 21 22 11.4 53 1 2 15 13.69 14 12 2.57 20 8
624 45.21 21.58 18.5 11 13.3 52 2 0 20 13.62 14 16 2.86 20 8
78 43.85 21.82 19 10 13.7 64 2 0 16 13.49 14 14 2.81 18 6
88 42.90 22.14 17 14 15.9 68 1 3 17 13.55 14 16 3.33 20 6
16 41.77 23.23 19 17 15.0 62 1 2 14 13.37 14 14 3.11 20 6
3284 41.26 22.64 20 26 13.9 69 2 0 11 13.45 14 14 2.83 20 6
1732 41.15 22.11 19 19 14.9 77 2 0 16 13.54 14 14 2.94 20 4
179 40.88 22.65 19 11 15.5 78 3 0 13 13.46 14 14 3.07 20 4
233 40.32 23.07 19 4 16.8 81 1 2 17 13.45 14 14 3.31 20 5
2848 40.01 24.77 22 20 13.8 53 2 0 12 12.92 14 14 2.89 20 8
836 39.89 25.44 22 28 15.8 73 1 1 12 12.93 14 14 3.06 19 5
494 39.87 26.31 25 23 14.6 66 2 0 13 12.81 12 12 3.07 20 6
340 36.95 28.87 24.5 21 16.8 68 2 0 8 12.35 12 12 3.16 18 6
337 35.40 28.15 27 29 13.7 77 1 1 4 12.39 12 12 2.67 20 4
1731 35.03 29.15 28 40 15.1 66 1 1 9 12.24 12 12 3.00 20 6
3547 33.77 28.98 26 21 15.2 78 4 0 3 12.16 12 12 2.86 18 4
302 31.40 33.64 32 25 13.6 66 6 0 3 11.41 12 12 2.43 18 6
2046 28.17 40.58 41 41 16.0 80 12 0 0 10.29 10 10 2.76 16 4
2481 28.08 40.92 39.5 27 20.1 86 2 0 6 10.23 10 10 3.61 20 2
2809 27.79 37.71 35 30 17.5 76 6 0 2 10.82 12 12 3.11 18 4
2338 27.62 38.01 35.5 29 17.6 76 2 0 3 10.7 11.5 12 3.08 18 4
3009 26.11 40.16 38.5 32 17.3 86 3 0 4 10.45 10 8 3.22 18 2
1100 25.93 40.06 41 51 17.5 84 5 0 2 10.48 10 8 3.13 18 3
842 25.14 38.93 39 39 17.0 80 5 0 2 10.61 10 10 2.98 18 4
386 24.47 43.77 43.5 53 18.5 85 9 0 0 9.79 10 8 3.20 16 2
1108 23.34 41.85 40.5 41 16.4 84 10 0 0 10.13 10 10 2.89 16 2
3483 22.56 43.02 41.5 34 18.1 83 7 0 1 10 10 12 3.31 18 4
811 21.83 44.79 44 44 17.3 84 6 0 1 9.71 10 10 2.90 18 2
1511 21.49 45 45 40 17.7 87 14 0 0 9.72 10 8 3.04 16 0
1710 21.07 47.45 48.5 54 18.2 83 8 0 1 9.27 8.5 8 3.06 16 2
3456 19.80 45.14 45 54 18.6 83 4 0 2 9.82 10 8 3.18 18 4
2614 19.70 44.54 42 41 18.6 82 5 0 1 9.72 10 10 3.34 18 2
447 17.94 46.86 46.5 31 18.0 86 7 0 3 9.42 10 10 3.17 18 2
3536 15.47 54.76 56.5 68 17.5 85 23 0 0 8.32 8 6 2.96 14 2
228 15.06 52.46 54 46 19.6 88 5 0 1 8.65 8 8 3.42 18 0
3103 14.82 51.74 52.5 58 18.0 86 5 0 2 8.74 8 8 3.13 18 2
3344 14.52 51.64 54 54 18.4 84 13 0 0 8.7 8 8 3.15 16 2
980 14.12 50.82 51 49 18.7 87 4 0 1 8.83 8 8 3.26 18 2
236 14.04 53.4 54.5 53 17.4 86 13 0 0 8.41 8 8 2.97 16 2
3792 13.95 54.35 54 44 18.0 87 9 0 0 8.26 8 6 3.14 18 2
79 13.31 55 55 59 17.5 87 6 0 1 8.17 8 8 3.10 18 0
2039 13.03 52.27 51.5 47 17.8 85 4 0 1 8.67 8 10 3.10 18 2
2437 12.45 57.58 57.5 54 16.1 87 11 0 0 7.88 8 6 2.69 16 2
1764 11.31 59.11 60.5 68 14.1 87 13 0 0 7.62 8 8 2.41 15 2
1604 8.83 59.74 62 56 17.3 87 9 0 0 7.68 8 8 2.98 16 2
2797 8.27 57.82 59.5 73 17.6 88 16 0 0 7.92 8 8 3.11 16 0
2974 7.55 60.54 65 72 17.9 88 11 0 0 7.4 7.5 6 3.16 16 0
3880 6.48 63.27 67 67 16.6 88 19 0 0 7 6 6 2.88 16 0
2815 5.09 61.6 62 61 15.6 88 22 0 0 7.42 8 8 2.71 14 2
2264 4.89 65.21 68 46 15.6 87 28 0 0 6.84 6 6 2.69 12 2
1942 4.81 61.37 61 58 15.7 88 24 0 0 7.33 8 8 2.82 14 0
3358 4.64 65.18 68.5 47 16.7 87 23 0 0 6.65 6 8 3.03 14 2
3612 4.45 61.92 62 88 18.0 88 13 0 0 7.18 8 8 3.30 16 0
1502 4.28 61.22 64 72 16.8 87 15 0 0 7.42 8 6 2.98 16 0
3242 3.77 66.78 71 83 16.1 88 22 0 0 6.57 6 6 2.83 13 2
2342 3.62 64.81 70 70 15.7 88 21 0 0 6.91 6 6 2.78 14 2
3748 3.21 63.91 67 72 15.8 88 23 0 0 7.05 6 6 2.69 14 0
2662 3.20 62.01 63 76 16.8 87 24 0 0 7.36 8 8 2.97 14 2
2655 3.16 68.3 70.5 82 14.4 88 29 0 0 6.29 6 6 2.61 13 0
3622 2.98 67.7 71 71 14.9 88 29 0 0 6.35 6 6 2.63 12 0
1984 2.84 66.52 69 60 15.0 88 28 0 0 6.52 6 6 2.79 12 0
2197 2.66 62.52 65.5 82 17.6 88 18 0 0 7.16 7 6 3.20 14 0
3126 2.50 68.47 70.5 86 15.0 88 36 0 0 6.1 6 6 2.90 12 0
3478 1.33 68.93 72 86 15.3 88 31 0 0 6.06 6 8 2.96 12 0
2080 0.56 65.71 71 71 17.9 88 13 0 0 6.66 6 6 3.23 16 0
353 0.37 68.54 73 61 15.0 87 31 0 0 6.26 6 6 2.78 12 2
1829 -0.01 69.79 74 86 15.1 88 21 0 0 6.12 6 6 2.92 14 0
3521 -0.53 71.66 74 85 13.0 88 35 0 0 5.74 6 6 2.56 12 0
1165 -0.59 68.66 73.5 84 17.3 88 29 0 0 6.01 6 4 3.23 12 0
1801 -1.16 69.05 72.5 79 15.9 88 23 0 0 6.18 6 6 2.94 14 0
3278 -1.98 70.25 73 85 14.2 88 32 0 0 5.96 6 4 2.69 12 0
3505 -2.07 70.45 74.5 88 14.7 88 29 0 0 6 6 6 2.86 12 0
2660 -2.31 69.74 74 88 15.3 88 32 0 0 5.92 6 6 2.98 12 0
1195 -2.42 69.79 75 88 15.6 88 23 0 0 6.03 6 4 2.93 14 0
3472 -5.76 73.98 76.5 88 13.4 88 39 0 0 5.31 5.5 4 2.80 12 0

[Justin Montois]

Thanks for doing that Joe. It's always interesting to look at. In just a few day's we'll have the real stats. See everyone soon!

[JennaBrown]

To start I would like to congratulate all of the teams who are coming to nationals in St. Louis! All of your hard work and dedication is paying off!
Like any other competition there are some things that are bound to happen. Programs aren't going to run right, things will break, and countless of other things could go wrong (knock on wood!). But have no fear, MOEbile Pit will be there! For years MOE 365 has run a successful "mobile pit" which consists of a team of students that helps other teams with any problems that they encounter. But this year we are stepping into the 21st century with the help of Twitter! If at any time during the competition your team finds themselves in need of help, Tweet @MOEbilePit with your problem/request! This is an experimental way of communication through which other FIRST teams can connect to our MOEbile Pit when they need assistance! If you have any questions feel free to post them, or Tweet them to @MOEbilePit .
In the words of my greatest inspiration, Dean Kamen, "Good luck, and see you in St. Louis!"

[pfreivald]

Hey Joe, how well has that piece of statistical fun correlated to actual division results in the past?

[Joe Ross]

Hey Joe, how well has that piece of statistical fun correlated to actual division results in the past?

In 2008, when OPR was "good", 66% of team's ranks fell within the SD that I posted. That seems pretty good to me.

[JVN]

Similar to what I did in previous years (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=735425&postcount=165), I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

Team OPR Avg Rnk Med Rnk Mod Rnk SD Rnk Max Rnk Min Rnk #1 seed Top 8 Avg QP Med QP Mode QP StdevQP Max QP Min QP
148 71.24 7.13 4.5 2 7.8 42 1 15 76 17.04 18 18 2.41 20 10
1503 65.43 8.6 6 3 7.7 36 1 14 64 16.49 16.5 18 2.38 20 10
525 64.08 9.6 7.5 2 8.3 37 1 9 55 16.27 16 16 2.46 20 10
217 61.01 11.09 10 2 8.8 54 1 7 44 15.73 16 16 2.39 20 8
234 58.70 9.68 7 6 8.1 38 1 8 58 16.31 16 18 2.30 20 11
2415 57.92 11.26 10.5 1 8.0 37 1 10 43 15.8 16 16 2.39 20 10
25 57.04 12.68 10 7 9.2 39 1 5 43 15.4 16 16 2.54 20 10
1538 55.88 10.46 8 4 9.2 48 1 5 54 16.06 16 18 2.49 20 8
1730 54.08 14.78 12.5 4 10.1 41 1 2 33 14.96 14.5 14 2.62 20 10
11 48.94 17.28 16 12 11.2 50 1 5 26 14.43 14 14 2.61 20 8
2122 47.49 18.78 15.5 5 13.7 57 1 4 27 14.29 14 14 3.08 20 8
1676 46.38 19.72 17 14 14.1 65 1 2 23 14.02 14 14 3.06 20 6
27 46.29 22.02 20 9 14.4 65 1 2 17 13.56 14 14 3.16 20 6
3138 45.36 21.01 21 22 11.4 53 1 2 15 13.69 14 12 2.57 20 8
624 45.21 21.58 18.5 11 13.3 52 2 0 20 13.62 14 16 2.86 20 8
78 43.85 21.82 19 10 13.7 64 2 0 16 13.49 14 14 2.81 18 6
88 42.90 22.14 17 14 15.9 68 1 3 17 13.55 14 16 3.33 20 6
16 41.77 23.23 19 17 15.0 62 1 2 14 13.37 14 14 3.11 20 6
3284 41.26 22.64 20 26 13.9 69 2 0 11 13.45 14 14 2.83 20 6
1732 41.15 22.11 19 19 14.9 77 2 0 16 13.54 14 14 2.94 20 4
179 40.88 22.65 19 11 15.5 78 3 0 13 13.46 14 14 3.07 20 4
233 40.32 23.07 19 4 16.8 81 1 2 17 13.45 14 14 3.31 20 5
2848 40.01 24.77 22 20 13.8 53 2 0 12 12.92 14 14 2.89 20 8
836 39.89 25.44 22 28 15.8 73 1 1 12 12.93 14 14 3.06 19 5
494 39.87 26.31 25 23 14.6 66 2 0 13 12.81 12 12 3.07 20 6
340 36.95 28.87 24.5 21 16.8 68 2 0 8 12.35 12 12 3.16 18 6
337 35.40 28.15 27 29 13.7 77 1 1 4 12.39 12 12 2.67 20 4
1731 35.03 29.15 28 40 15.1 66 1 1 9 12.24 12 12 3.00 20 6
3547 33.77 28.98 26 21 15.2 78 4 0 3 12.16 12 12 2.86 18 4
302 31.40 33.64 32 25 13.6 66 6 0 3 11.41 12 12 2.43 18 6
2046 28.17 40.58 41 41 16.0 80 12 0 0 10.29 10 10 2.76 16 4
2481 28.08 40.92 39.5 27 20.1 86 2 0 6 10.23 10 10 3.61 20 2
2809 27.79 37.71 35 30 17.5 76 6 0 2 10.82 12 12 3.11 18 4
2338 27.62 38.01 35.5 29 17.6 76 2 0 3 10.7 11.5 12 3.08 18 4
3009 26.11 40.16 38.5 32 17.3 86 3 0 4 10.45 10 8 3.22 18 2
1100 25.93 40.06 41 51 17.5 84 5 0 2 10.48 10 8 3.13 18 3
842 25.14 38.93 39 39 17.0 80 5 0 2 10.61 10 10 2.98 18 4
386 24.47 43.77 43.5 53 18.5 85 9 0 0 9.79 10 8 3.20 16 2
1108 23.34 41.85 40.5 41 16.4 84 10 0 0 10.13 10 10 2.89 16 2
3483 22.56 43.02 41.5 34 18.1 83 7 0 1 10 10 12 3.31 18 4
811 21.83 44.79 44 44 17.3 84 6 0 1 9.71 10 10 2.90 18 2
1511 21.49 45 45 40 17.7 87 14 0 0 9.72 10 8 3.04 16 0
1710 21.07 47.45 48.5 54 18.2 83 8 0 1 9.27 8.5 8 3.06 16 2
3456 19.80 45.14 45 54 18.6 83 4 0 2 9.82 10 8 3.18 18 4
2614 19.70 44.54 42 41 18.6 82 5 0 1 9.72 10 10 3.34 18 2
447 17.94 46.86 46.5 31 18.0 86 7 0 3 9.42 10 10 3.17 18 2
3536 15.47 54.76 56.5 68 17.5 85 23 0 0 8.32 8 6 2.96 14 2
228 15.06 52.46 54 46 19.6 88 5 0 1 8.65 8 8 3.42 18 0
3103 14.82 51.74 52.5 58 18.0 86 5 0 2 8.74 8 8 3.13 18 2
3344 14.52 51.64 54 54 18.4 84 13 0 0 8.7 8 8 3.15 16 2
980 14.12 50.82 51 49 18.7 87 4 0 1 8.83 8 8 3.26 18 2
236 14.04 53.4 54.5 53 17.4 86 13 0 0 8.41 8 8 2.97 16 2
3792 13.95 54.35 54 44 18.0 87 9 0 0 8.26 8 6 3.14 18 2
79 13.31 55 55 59 17.5 87 6 0 1 8.17 8 8 3.10 18 0
2039 13.03 52.27 51.5 47 17.8 85 4 0 1 8.67 8 10 3.10 18 2
2437 12.45 57.58 57.5 54 16.1 87 11 0 0 7.88 8 6 2.69 16 2
1764 11.31 59.11 60.5 68 14.1 87 13 0 0 7.62 8 8 2.41 15 2
1604 8.83 59.74 62 56 17.3 87 9 0 0 7.68 8 8 2.98 16 2
2797 8.27 57.82 59.5 73 17.6 88 16 0 0 7.92 8 8 3.11 16 0
2974 7.55 60.54 65 72 17.9 88 11 0 0 7.4 7.5 6 3.16 16 0
3880 6.48 63.27 67 67 16.6 88 19 0 0 7 6 6 2.88 16 0
2815 5.09 61.6 62 61 15.6 88 22 0 0 7.42 8 8 2.71 14 2
2264 4.89 65.21 68 46 15.6 87 28 0 0 6.84 6 6 2.69 12 2
1942 4.81 61.37 61 58 15.7 88 24 0 0 7.33 8 8 2.82 14 0
3358 4.64 65.18 68.5 47 16.7 87 23 0 0 6.65 6 8 3.03 14 2
3612 4.45 61.92 62 88 18.0 88 13 0 0 7.18 8 8 3.30 16 0
1502 4.28 61.22 64 72 16.8 87 15 0 0 7.42 8 6 2.98 16 0
3242 3.77 66.78 71 83 16.1 88 22 0 0 6.57 6 6 2.83 13 2
2342 3.62 64.81 70 70 15.7 88 21 0 0 6.91 6 6 2.78 14 2
3748 3.21 63.91 67 72 15.8 88 23 0 0 7.05 6 6 2.69 14 0
2662 3.20 62.01 63 76 16.8 87 24 0 0 7.36 8 8 2.97 14 2
2655 3.16 68.3 70.5 82 14.4 88 29 0 0 6.29 6 6 2.61 13 0
3622 2.98 67.7 71 71 14.9 88 29 0 0 6.35 6 6 2.63 12 0
1984 2.84 66.52 69 60 15.0 88 28 0 0 6.52 6 6 2.79 12 0
2197 2.66 62.52 65.5 82 17.6 88 18 0 0 7.16 7 6 3.20 14 0
3126 2.50 68.47 70.5 86 15.0 88 36 0 0 6.1 6 6 2.90 12 0
3478 1.33 68.93 72 86 15.3 88 31 0 0 6.06 6 8 2.96 12 0
2080 0.56 65.71 71 71 17.9 88 13 0 0 6.66 6 6 3.23 16 0
353 0.37 68.54 73 61 15.0 87 31 0 0 6.26 6 6 2.78 12 2
1829 -0.01 69.79 74 86 15.1 88 21 0 0 6.12 6 6 2.92 14 0
3521 -0.53 71.66 74 85 13.0 88 35 0 0 5.74 6 6 2.56 12 0
1165 -0.59 68.66 73.5 84 17.3 88 29 0 0 6.01 6 4 3.23 12 0
1801 -1.16 69.05 72.5 79 15.9 88 23 0 0 6.18 6 6 2.94 14 0
3278 -1.98 70.25 73 85 14.2 88 32 0 0 5.96 6 4 2.69 12 0
3505 -2.07 70.45 74.5 88 14.7 88 29 0 0 6 6 6 2.86 12 0
2660 -2.31 69.74 74 88 15.3 88 32 0 0 5.92 6 6 2.98 12 0
1195 -2.42 69.79 75 88 15.6 88 23 0 0 6.03 6 4 2.93 14 0
3472 -5.76 73.98 76.5 88 13.4 88 39 0 0 5.31 5.5 4 2.80 12 0



Joe,
Thanks for posting!

One question we always have at an event is "Can someone still seed after 1 loss? What about if we have 2 losses?" Can you share your data to show what the statistics say?

What does someone statistically need to do in Newton 2011 to stay in the top 8? In the top 4?

-John

[pfreivald]

In 2008, when OPR was "good", 66% of team's ranks fell within the SD that I posted. That seems pretty good to me.

That's a pretty reasonable correlation, I'd say.

[MikeE]

In 2008, when OPR was "good", 66% of team's ranks fell within the SD that I posted. That seems pretty good to me.

Joe identifies the key factor which limits this year's statistical fun - whether OPR is a "good" predictor.

The sum of the maximum OPR of each simulated alliance may well be a good predictor of the winning alliance of a simulated match1. But this year, especially with the exaggerated and quantized contribution of the minibot race, it surely can't be a good predictor of the score of that simulated match.
Teams 148, 1503 & 525 would be a very formidable alliance, but I don't expect even them to score 201 points (200.75 rounded) in a single match :)

Furthermore, with 88 teams playing 10 matches each, it is quite likely that two or more teams will finish qualifications with a 10-0-0 record, and several to tie with 9-1-0 records, so RS will matter for final seeding. To predict RS we need to predict the losing alliances score (ignoring penalties).

1 I publicly commit to producing an analysis after the Championship looking at the performance of several predictive metrics. Look for a thread once I've recovered.

[Justin Montois]

Just for fun, a test qualification schedule for Newton is posted on the FIRST website. Again this is just a TEST but it's interesting to look at.

http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/TEST/schedulequal.html

[XaulZan11]

Just for fun, a test qualification schedule for Newton is posted on the FIRST website. Again this is just a TEST but it's interesting to look at.

http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/TEST/schedulequal.html

I wish that was the real one, as we would have a lot of fun matches:
with 148 against 217
with 3138 against 525
with 2415/234 against 27/1676
with 25
with 233 against 494
against 16

[Joe Ross]

One question we always have at an event is "Can someone still seed after 1 loss? What about if we have 2 losses?" Can you share your data to show what the statistics say?

What does someone statistically need to do in Newton 2011 to stay in the top 8? In the top 4?

While my data has all that information, I'm not going to be able to extract it before the championship. I can say that no undefeated and untied team in the 3 alliance w-l-t era has ever seeded worse then 3rd. Given that most of those played 7 matches, it will only be better for the undefeated teams this year. There also has almost always been at least one undefeated team. Conversely, in the past, only 12 times out of 160 opportunities did a team with 2 losses seed in the top 8. I expect that number to be significantly different this year, however.

[JVN]

While my data has all that information, I'm not going to be able to extract it before the championship. I can say that no undefeated and untied team in the 3 alliance w-l-t era has ever seeded worse then 3rd. Given that most of those played 7 matches, it will only be better for the undefeated teams this year. There also has almost always been at least one undefeated team. Conversely, in the past, only 12 times out of 160 opportunities did a team with 2 losses seed in the top 8. I expect that number to be significantly different this year, however.

Is there any way to post the 100 individual seed lists? I could extract my own stats from that.

If not -- no worries. Something for next year maybe?

-John

[Joe Ross]

Here's how teams seeded with 10 wins, 9 wins, and 8 wins respectively.

Seed 20qp 18qp 16qp
1 75 23 0
2 43 52 0
3 12 82 1
4 3 89 5
5 1 78 12
6 0 50 39
7 0 28 63
8 0 12 84
9 0 4 95
10 0 0 97
11 0 0 89
12 0 0 75
13 0 0 56
14 0 0 32
15 0 0 19
16 0 0 8
17 0 0 5
18 0 0 2
19 0 0 1

[Alpha Beta]

Wow, looks like you had 1 run with 5 undefeated teams. If you're way ahead on tubes you may have to let the other alliance's minibot beat you or at least feed them some tubes to try and get some ranking points.

[JVN]

Here's how teams seeded with 10 wins, 9 wins, and 8 wins respectively.

Seed 20qp 18qp 16qp
1 75 23 0
2 43 52 0
3 12 82 1
4 3 89 5
5 1 78 12
6 0 50 39
7 0 28 63
8 0 12 84
9 0 4 95
10 0 0 97
11 0 0 89
12 0 0 75
13 0 0 56
14 0 0 32
15 0 0 19
16 0 0 8
17 0 0 5
18 0 0 2
19 0 0 1

So with two losses you have a chance at the top 8, but in most scenarios you'll find yourself juuuust out of range.

Got it.

-John

[Drivencrazy]

So if I'm looking at the data right there was one team who won 10 matches and ended up ranked fifth? Were there some regionals that played more than 10 matches?

[EricH]

So if I'm looking at the data right there was one team who won 10 matches and ended up ranked fifth? Were there some regionals that played more than 10 matches?
This is a simulated match schedule. Or rather, 100 simulated match schedules were run and compared. Yes, there were regionals with more than 10 matches.

What you're seeing is that with 10 wins in a 10-match schedule, the lowest possible seed is 5th place.

[DonRotolo]

Ooh! We're on Newton! Do we get figs (http://www.nabiscoworld.com/newtons/)?

Oughta be way fun. Come by 1676 and say hello, we'll be there from Wednesday as soon as they let us in, on. 'cept for the webhug and Bill's presentations of course.

[The Lucas]

Ooh! We're on Newton! Do we get figs (http://www.nabiscoworld.com/newtons/)?

My dad had many versions of Fig Newton jokes this year. He seriously considered buying a box and giving it to the comp team so they could eat 2-4 Newtons before each match, because that's how many it takes to Trigger the Tower :D. Maybe it would have helped our first qual match at Philly because apparently we didn't have enough Newtons that match :rolleyes:

It is really too bad the Towers on your field will not Trigger because there is only 1 Newton ;)

OK, I'll stop now...

[MikeE]

Wow, looks like you had 1 run with 5 undefeated teams. If you're way ahead on tubes you may have to let the other alliance's minibot beat you or at least feed them some tubes to try and get some ranking points.

It's not so much that there are 10 matches, but 10 matches in a field of 88 teams. So 2 strong teams, A & B, will face each other in qualifying with a 30/87 or only 34% probability. With three strong teams it's about 29% likely that none of them will face another in qualification matches.
There is a good chance of multiple no-loss teams vying for the #1 spot, so there might be a slight edge to teams with weaker minibots :p

[Grim Tuesday]

My dad had many versions of Fig Newton jokes this year. He seriously considered buying a box and giving it to the comp team so they could eat 2-4 Newtons before each match, because that's how many it takes to Trigger the Tower :D. Maybe it would have helped our first qual match at Philly because apparently we didn't have enough Newtons that match :rolleyes:

It is really too bad the Towers on your field will not Trigger because there is only 1 Newton ;)

OK, I'll stop now...

Oh, man, thats bad.

[The Lucas]

Schedule is out (first one):
http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/Newton/schedulequal.html
(http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/Newton/schedulequal.html)
I haven't looked at much but 1503 has no scheduler luck in the 5th match:
25 217 3284 vs 1503 3009 3622

[Rangel(kf7fdb)]

Can't wait until match 94. From Opr, it seems to be the super match.

[Ian Curtis]

I was too lazy to code up a ranking calculator earlier in the season (and I have homework due in the morning), but the following is a matrix of the OPR predicted match (using the OPR Joe used) results. 1st column is match number, 2nd is red alliance, 3rd is blue, 4th is the difference.

Newton Schedule (http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/Newton/schedulequal.html)

1.0000 23.7000 51.5700 -27.8700
2.0000 137.4200 35.2700 102.1500
3.0000 12.2100 50.9100 -38.7000
4.0000 3.9900 72.3900 -68.4000
5.0000 159.3100 94.5200 64.7900
6.0000 117.9300 57.5600 60.3700
7.0000 13.4300 81.8500 -68.4200
8.0000 120.5500 71.6500 48.9000
9.0000 72.3300 35.3200 37.0100
10.0000 98.5800 99.5200 -0.9400
11.0000 69.1900 42.9500 26.2400
12.0000 77.3400 19.4700 57.8700
13.0000 56.2400 34.9900 21.2500
14.0000 91.3500 72.8700 18.4800
15.0000 86.5600 62.6000 23.9600
16.0000 117.2900 69.1400 48.1500
17.0000 5.3600 32.9600 -27.6000
18.0000 17.9200 101.6300 -83.7100
19.0000 54.9400 18.1200 36.8200
20.0000 115.0000 36.9600 78.0400
21.0000 38.4000 27.5900 10.8100
22.0000 82.9100 72.6300 10.2800
23.0000 81.3300 124.0900 -42.7600
24.0000 65.6800 4.7100 60.9700
25.0000 92.1700 113.9800 -21.8100
26.0000 89.5400 119.1400 -29.6000
27.0000 86.9100 77.9400 8.9700
28.0000 115.0600 33.4200 81.6400
29.0000 87.7800 96.2300 -8.4500
30.0000 84.8000 33.7400 51.0600
31.0000 123.5800 49.5400 74.0400
32.0000 80.4000 6.4500 73.9500
33.0000 41.0400 118.7300 -77.6900
34.0000 48.8500 54.1000 -5.2500
35.0000 45.9900 67.8500 -21.8600
36.0000 35.0700 80.0900 -45.0200
37.0000 80.1400 37.2600 42.8800
38.0000 92.0700 84.2700 7.8000
39.0000 192.5500 33.2300 159.3200
40.0000 37.3400 86.6500 -49.3100
41.0000 58.3800 53.1000 5.2800
42.0000 104.9100 36.6300 68.2800
43.0000 28.9000 95.8200 -66.9200
44.0000 54.5600 97.4000 -42.8400
45.0000 48.0800 99.1800 -51.1000
46.0000 33.7600 29.7700 3.9900
47.0000 31.2500 108.3900 -77.1400
48.0000 88.6200 94.9000 -6.2800
49.0000 108.5500 50.3800 58.1700
50.0000 57.6800 131.1200 -73.4400
51.0000 140.2200 42.7300 97.4900
52.0000 67.9600 45.5800 22.3800
53.0000 44.4400 37.8700 6.5700
54.0000 63.6300 72.1100 -8.4800
55.0000 86.1500 86.9300 -0.7800
56.0000 19.1700 64.2200 -45.0500
57.0000 143.8000 103.8600 39.9400
58.0000 27.0400 32.5700 -5.5300
59.0000 56.7000 61.2200 -4.5200
60.0000 94.2800 104.6400 -10.3600
61.0000 42.4500 114.5800 -72.1300
62.0000 63.1900 74.5500 -11.3600
63.0000 43.6700 42.3800 1.2900
64.0000 40.1900 85.4300 -45.2400
65.0000 42.9700 24.8400 18.1300
66.0000 68.1500 66.6200 1.5300
67.0000 69.1500 113.1300 -43.9800
68.0000 15.0200 145.4100 -130.3900
69.0000 68.4500 84.5000 -16.0500
70.0000 94.0300 58.4500 35.5800
71.0000 89.1200 57.4600 31.6600
72.0000 74.6000 25.0700 49.5300
73.0000 42.2200 95.6900 -53.4700
74.0000 -5.0200 127.4000 -132.4200
75.0000 53.8500 168.2200 -114.3700
76.0000 117.3200 52.8800 64.4400
77.0000 70.7600 72.9300 -2.1700
78.0000 126.3300 46.1000 80.2300
79.0000 50.9000 51.9000 -1.0000
80.0000 43.9800 26.7800 17.2000
81.0000 99.2500 69.3100 29.9400
82.0000 74.3800 79.5600 -5.1800
83.0000 71.9400 3.6700 68.2700
84.0000 34.5100 59.1500 -24.6400
85.0000 16.6600 74.4500 -57.7900
86.0000 68.2100 80.0200 -11.8100
87.0000 72.1500 100.1700 -28.0200
88.0000 23.1900 96.7700 -73.5800
89.0000 76.4800 100.4500 -23.9700
90.0000 79.2600 36.5900 42.6700
91.0000 120.5500 62.3700 58.1800
92.0000 143.2100 73.8200 69.3900
93.0000 31.4300 83.4700 -52.0400
94.0000 119.3800 137.5300 -18.1500
95.0000 57.1900 102.9200 -45.7300
96.0000 58.7100 17.6700 41.0400
97.0000 89.8700 0.0800 89.7900
98.0000 133.2100 50.1700 83.0400
99.0000 40.5600 86.9500 -46.3900
100.0000 22.0800 29.3300 -7.2500
101.0000 73.0600 87.7800 -14.7200
102.0000 54.3600 30.4200 23.9400
103.0000 13.9400 17.8700 -3.9300
104.0000 48.0800 96.7500 -48.6700
105.0000 84.0700 4.5500 79.5200
106.0000 94.1700 70.3200 23.8500
107.0000 118.8800 79.3000 39.5800
108.0000 43.3900 47.1100 -3.7200
109.0000 29.7700 32.5700 -2.8000
110.0000 101.6400 56.5800 45.0600
111.0000 43.7600 53.7100 -9.9500
112.0000 39.8600 91.1400 -51.2800
113.0000 108.9600 121.3700 -12.4100
114.0000 68.8500 98.5600 -29.7100
115.0000 63.9000 83.4100 -19.5100
116.0000 12.4700 101.5500 -89.0800
117.0000 31.8400 111.4500 -79.6100
118.0000 96.8800 110.7000 -13.8200
119.0000 99.3500 44.3700 54.9800
120.0000 48.4000 97.7600 -49.3600
121.0000 80.4200 74.9200 5.5000
122.0000 -1.0800 24.7400 -25.8200
123.0000 75.5600 145.0600 -69.5000
124.0000 43.0000 23.1200 19.8800
125.0000 63.3700 63.5200 -0.1500
126.0000 66.7500 60.2600 6.4900
127.0000 100.7600 24.4000 76.3600
128.0000 36.6600 98.1600 -61.5000
129.0000 49.3100 107.5600 -58.2500
130.0000 88.2000 69.0300 19.1700
131.0000 51.0800 98.6700 -47.5900
132.0000 94.0600 42.1300 51.9300
133.0000 54.5400 107.6500 -53.1100
134.0000 55.4400 133.6000 -78.1600
135.0000 40.2200 72.9400 -32.7200
136.0000 69.0500 69.1000 -0.0500
137.0000 88.0800 62.1200 25.9600
138.0000 32.9900 30.5800 2.4100
139.0000 97.2800 69.3100 27.9700
140.0000 31.3200 86.4700 -55.1500
141.0000 135.3400 30.6500 104.6900
142.0000 79.3500 91.6900 -12.3400
143.0000 66.7000 15.6100 51.0900
144.0000 70.4700 132.6200 -62.1500
145.0000 20.4400 40.4000 -19.9600
146.0000 68.2300 106.6000 -38.3700
147.0000 10.0900 111.0300 -100.9400

[JackS]

I haven't looked at much but 1503 has no scheduler luck in the 5th match:
25 217 3284 vs 1503 3009 3622

Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3
5 25 217 3284 1503 3009 3622
27 525 447 2264 1503 3103 2660
39 148 1538 1503 1100 3358 2197
55 2437 2797 1503 3792 2415 228
67 2080 2655 1503624 3483 3138
74 1165 3478 3472 2039 1503 11
91 1503 27 1604 980 16 3880
105 1503 3456 1801 2815 3521 1829
131 1511 3612 842 3547 1503 3521
139 1503 2481 3242 1732 2809 353

I did the schedules for the teams of EWCP members and 1503 for Akash Rastogi and Nick Lawrence, and unfortunately 1503 got the worst draw, including playing against EWCP Team 2415. Using Ian's OPR for matches, 1503 only has an advantage in about half of their matches. Should be interesting to see how accurate those OPR numbers are.

First impressions say 148 walks through qualifying untouched with 1676, 2415, and 16 not too far behind, 1-2 losses each. Should be a great few days.

[Akash Rastogi]

Match 39 is gonna break the game.

[The Lucas]

I got a rudimentary sorter (by qualifying points only) working because I was interested. Columns are team number, OPR, QP. Interesting to see how teams "lucked out" or "unlucked out"

I *think* I got the full ranking working. Very interesting results... First column is team number, 2nd is OPR, 3rd is QP, 4th is cumulative opponents score (divide this by 10 to get RS). Remember this assumes the OPR predicted teams will win, so a good sensitivity analysis would look to see if some of these teams play in close matches which they might well lose. (For example, 525 is predicted to win Match 10 by less than a point)

I think there might be an error in my RP code. I haven't found a case where the qualifying points don't match up with a hand counted test case though. Really got to start on that homework assignment, so I'll leave these with a speculate at your own risk attached to them




Here is my attempt at simulated rankings, using your match scores and an existing excel sheet of mine. I think I accounted for surrogate matches (3rd Match) correctly. Note the ThunderClucks win their surrogate match, but lose 2 others.

It begs the question again, why can't we go to 90 teams/division and eliminate these pointless surrogate matches?

Rank Team # QS RS Matches
1 525 20 68.80 10
2 148 20 50.62 10
3 1676 20 44.68 10
4 1538 18 67.90 10
5 3547 18 54.36 10
6 25 18 52.64 10
7 2848 18 51.08 10
8 27 18 48.98 10
9 2039 18 28.01 10
10 1730 16 65.86 10
11 217 16 63.26 11
12 624 16 62.75 10
13 234 16 58.62 10
14 78 16 56.90 10
15 88 16 53.22 10
16 3456 16 41.97 10
17 3138 14 66.10 10
18 2809 14 61.31 10
19 1732 14 59.72 10
20 2415 14 58.06 10
21 11 14 56.20 10
22 1731 14 55.53 10
23 2338 14 54.64 10
24 386 14 49.88 10
25 2481 14 49.73 10
26 233 12 63.62 10
27 179 12 62.50 10
28 1511 12 59.15 10
29 3284 12 56.48 10
30 1503 12 54.33 10
31 2122 12 53.29 10
32 340 12 51.09 10
33 2264 12 49.48 10
34 2342 12 45.80 11
35 353 12 45.79 10
36 836 10 57.65 10
37 494 10 53.44 10
38 447 10 45.99 10
39 1764 10 44.98 10
40 3483 10 41.38 10
41 1942 10 38.07 10
42 228 10 37.31 10
43 2662 10 33.91 10
44 1829 10 28.55 10
45 16 8 62.62 10
46 842 8 59.99 10
47 337 8 54.47 10
48 3009 8 52.21 10
49 2437 8 50.85 10
50 302 8 50.84 10
51 3521 8 49.66 10
52 811 8 49.40 10
53 1502 8 45.41 10
54 2797 8 44.12 10
55 3242 8 42.84 10
56 980 8 41.60 10
57 3536 8 41.53 10
58 1195 8 37.76 10
59 2815 8 35.07 10
60 3622 8 33.18 10
61 1801 8 32.68 10
62 3505 8 32.46 10
63 2046 6 59.20 10
64 1100 6 56.24 10
65 236 6 55.73 10
66 1710 6 51.05 10
67 3792 6 45.72 10
68 1984 6 38.99 10
69 79 6 38.86 10
70 3880 6 36.91 10
71 3612 6 34.43 10
72 3358 6 33.98 10
73 3472 6 32.92 10
74 3748 6 32.32 10
75 3278 6 29.36 10
76 2614 4 54.85 10
77 1108 4 54.66 10
78 3103 4 50.15 10
79 3478 4 42.83 10
80 1165 4 40.77 10
81 1604 4 40.56 10
82 2655 4 38.91 10
83 2197 4 33.92 10
84 3344 2 44.18 10
85 2974 2 44.11 10
86 2080 2 37.60 10
87 2660 2 36.56 10
88 3126 2 34.42 10

[Shmee]

Match 87 :/ That's one I definitely want to watch...unfortunately by webcast, but what can you do?

[Tom Ore]

Here is my attempt at simulated rankings

I did the same thing but then looked at how many close matches there were (ie, within 25 points - for the minibot race.)

We (525) have 5 close matches, 148 has 2 and 1676 has 1. If we lose all 5 of the close matches we could drop below the 35th seed.

217, 234 and 3138 move to the top if they win the close matches rather than lose them.

[Grim Tuesday]

Full rack!

[Chris Sturrock]

Match 39 is gonna break the game.

Match 39 ALMOST broke the game. its a shame 148 missed their ubertube, but kudos to the drivers of 148, 1503, and 1538 for their skills!

[Austin2046]

Anyone calculate current OPRs from the matches so far?

[JamesBrown]

78 looks to be in good shape, favored in 5 out of their 6 remaining matches, currently sitting at #1.

[mhayon]

78 is definitely one impressive robot.

[JamesBrown]

Match 39 ALMOST broke the game. its a shame 148 missed their ubertube, but kudos to the drivers of 148, 1503, and 1538 for their skills!

Any one get video of this match?

[kstl99]

78 is definitely one impressive robot.

I would love to see them team up with 88 TJ^2 again. They were very impressive in Boston with 1099 and would give any alliance a run for their money. Almost every match there were 3 robots heading to the wall with 3 ubertubes held high until they were hung and they just kept hanging tubes after until they successfully deployed their minibits.

[mwibbels]

The Newton matches have been fun and challenging. Today it felt like the team was fighting a bit of a scheduling headwind and a couple of folks decided that it would be interesting to analyze the strength of schedule. Nothing complex just the sum of average scores of opponents – the average scores of alliance partners (not including the averages for the team's strength of schedule (SofS) being analyzed), for all of matches played by each team so far on Newton. The analysis is likely imperfect and we would love to see some better way to look at the balance of the strength of schedule. Just to make it interesting we added overall rank as of Friday night.

A couple of observations:
1. We expect that to some extent, with this metric, that exceptional teams can make their schedule look easy and that struggling teams can make their schedule harder
2. Significant jumps in the point totals are likely worth looking at


Rank Team SofS
84 2660 811.4
45 1100 786.9
37 2122 781.1
83 3344 777.9
78 79 758.5
74 2974 753.9
77 2197 746.7
44 3792 743.5
81 3278 736.5
87 1984 735.9
88 3748 735.2
73 3126 730.1
71 1108 716.9
55 2614 702.2
59 811 697.3
bbb 233 686.8
85 2080 684.1
58 980 680.9
61 3612 680.2
46 3103 677.4
49 3242 676.2
48 494 665.5
26 302 664.8
52 2815 650.9
25 836 645.3
23 525 636.6
62 2264 635.4
66 2655 631.0
65 3536 628.5
40 11 612.0
15 2415 611.3
76 1604 604.9
86 3472 603.6
42 1732 601.5
80 3358 601.3
7 27 598.4
6 1730 590.7
28 1710 587.6
18 3009 585.6
41 3521 577.0
69 236 576.7
67 2342 576.1
36 1764 575.0
43 3284 573.6
72 1165 568.4
47 179 559.4
82 2797 543.1
32 3622 539.6
75 3478 533.9
11 217 524.7
64 2437 524.6
27 2046 523.3
22 842 521.8
34 2662 513.0
57 2338 508.8
9 340 506.5
53 3880 499.5
30 88 495.7
60 2481 492.7
12 624 488.5
51 1801 486.1
56 1502 485.8
70 337 479.1
29 1511 478.9
63 1942 475.2
31 1503 473.6
79 447 467.8
17 1731 442.8
54 1195 441.4
38 2809 440.5
21 353 430.5
5 1538 430.0
68 3505 417.1
13 16 406.1
4 3138 405.9
50 3483 403.0
14 234 399.7
16 2848 389.3
35 228 387.1
20 3547 361.5
39 386 349.8
33 1829 340.8
3 1676 338.5
8 25 333.1
1 78 327.3
19 3456 235.5
10 2039 144.5
2 148 124.8

[Michael233]

1. 3138, 233, 1801
2.1676, 2415, 1732
3. 148, 234, 2481
4. 78, 1538, 494
5. 16, 27, 842
6. 1730, 2122, 11
7. 217, 1503, 25
8. 3456, 525, 2046

Thoughts everybody?

[Joe G.]

Quarters:
1 beats 8 in 3
7 beats 2 in 2
3 beats 6 in 2
5 beats 4 in 3

Semis:
3 beats 7 in 3
5 beats 1 in 2

Finals:
5 beats 3 in 3, this matchup would be very close

alliances 3, 5, and 7 are my favorites to win.

[Alexa Stott]

I might be biased, but alliance #7 is looking pretty good. :cool:

[DonRotolo]

and 7 beats 2 in 2? Seriously? Dunno about that. TBD.

Edit: Dangnabbit

[Wayne C.]

and 7 beats 2 in 2? Seriously? Dunno about that. TBD.

Edit: Dangnabbit

What was that!!!!!!?

[Akash Rastogi]

Newton sent out a Team IFI team, an EWCP team, and repped NJ. I guess I'm satisfied with that.

Too bad 11's alliance had to play our friends on 1503 in the semifinals with a crippled robot, it definitely was not the fight 11, 1730, and 2122 wanted to put up, especially after taking down the force that is 148 and 234. I do, however, have to ask 148 what they based their final alliance selection on. I feel they could have easily made a stronger alliance with a different last pick.

Some great matches by 2415 as well, sorry to see you guys take an early exit at the Championships.

But hey, 1503 made it to Einstein and that's all I care about. :)

[XaulZan11]

I do, however, have to ask 148 what they based their final alliance selection on. I feel they could have easily made a stronger alliance with a different last pick.


I actually didn't see the quarterfinal matches as they were right after our matches, but during qualifications 2481 had a fast consistent minibot. In 2481's match with 148 earlier, they pushed tubes towards the rack for 148 to score. We worked with 2481 for a match at Wisconsin and they are a smart, organized team that gets strategy. So, I understand the pick, but I'm not sure if they would have been my top pick at that point.


Although it was an early exit for 1732, I couldn't be happier with how we preformed. Signing up for the Championship 10 days before it started, having only a couple meetings to improve the robot, and only 1 day to practice with our entirely new driveteam (other than field coach), my goal was just to be playing Saturday afternoon, which we did. Thanks again to 1676 for the selection and 2415 for being a great alliance partner. Its rare to be the #2 seed and trying to figure out a way to slow down a stronger scoring #7 alliance, but we gave a good run at it.

Congrats to 217, 1503 and 25 on the Divison title.

[Austin2046]

Team 2046 Bear Metal had a great time and I'd like to personally thank our alliance partners 525 and 3456. We put up a very good fight but couldn't pull out a victory over the number one seeded alliance.

It was very interesting to see the final rankings and alliance selections as the depth of our division divided the truly powerhouse teams. It made for quite a challenging event.

I wonder if anyone has some archived match footage available? I haven't been able to find anything yet.

[JVN]

TToday it felt like the team was fighting a bit of a scheduling headwind and a couple of folks decided that it would be interesting to analyze the strength of schedule.
2 148 124.8

Statistically the easiest schedule in the division!
You won't hear any of us complaining. We'll take some good luck from the scheduling gods any day of the week (and twice on Saturdays).

-John

[MrForbes]

You don't have to play against the best team if you are the best team! :cool:

[mwibbels]

You won't hear any of us complaining. We'll take some good luck from the scheduling gods any day of the week (and twice on Saturdays).

-John

Nicely said :)

We were living in fear of 148 being able to set up a juggernaut, so were a bit relieved to see the great leveling due to the clash of the titans on Saturday morning.

The strength of Newton and the randomness of the qualification schedule were highly effective at splitting the powerhouses. It seems that it wasn't so on some of other fields.



I wonder if anyone has some archived match footage available? I haven't been able to find anything yet.

Yep - the Tators captured all of the Newton and Einstein field video. Right now that video is somewhere between Kansas and Idaho - we will try to send it along to the blue alliance this week and post it on our web site, but we are currently a little strung out.

[Wayne C.]

Team 25 (and i) WOULD LIKE TO THANK OUR PARTNERS from teams 217 and 1503 for teaming with us and giving the Newton Division a series of rounds that resulted in a great success for us. By the end of the rounds we were getting pretty banged up but playing a little defense is something Raider Robotix is not stranger to.

As Paul stated right after the picking "you guys really sucked this morning". I hope we gave the alliance an afternoon that was more memorable.

Overall the Newton Division was a fun group with some great competition. Thanks to all the Newton teams for making the event a great one.

WC :cool:

[Bharat Nain]

217 - The quality of work and communication exhibited by your team throughout the elimination is the reason why you have been successful for so many years. Thank you for picking us. It was an honor to work with you.

1503 - From one of our strategy/scouting sessions.. "I wouldn't mind being partnered with 1503.. that would be fun". I'm glad it came true. You played very well and we were glad to be partnered with you.

[ChristinaR]

This was a great division to play in. While it was a bit of a bummer that we weren't picked, the competition was great to watch. Those alliances were intense. I definitely spent most of my time over at the Newton field, and not just because a friend asked me to photograph his team.

It was a great performance by the winning alliance. Congrats to 1503, 217, and 25! It seems 1503 was quite excited for their first trip to Einstein- and I was excited for them!

[legogeek24]

Team 2046 Bear Metal had a great time and I'd like to personally thank our alliance partners 525 and 3456. We put up a very good fight but couldn't pull out a victory over the number one seeded alliance.


Team 3456 was glad to have you! It was definitely a tough match, but I feel we did outstanding. Together we held our own against an alliance that would make it to finals. Simply being in an alliance captain position was incredible for our rookie team, and I'm glad we were able to end up with some awesome alliance partners!

[TD78]

Big thanks to teams 1538 and 494 for being our elimination round alliance partners. 1538 was one of the top teams all weekend and 494 was fantastic as a feeder. It's too bad we couldn't have gone a bit further...what an exciting group to watch! A bit disappointing we threw those drive chains in the second semi-final match...and that the towers weren't up to snuff to registering those minibots. But we all had fun and everyone LOVED the cow bells (thanks 1538!!!) Had a great time in St. Louis and we hope to make it back again next year.

[Tom Ore]

FedEx delivered our robot today at about 2:30. We had a demo planned at a local elementary school fair this evening so it was great to get it back so quickly. We were going to run our Breakaway robot but it was a real treat to be able to run the Logomotion bot. Looks like the off season is underway already...

[Nick Lawrence]

It seems 1503 was quite excited for their first trip to Einstein- and I was excited for them!

Oh man we were... especially after having a complete failure of a season last year...

-Nick