2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE

[whytheheckme]

Assuming everyone shows up to the event tomorrow, (and no additional bribes are collected), we will run the attached Match Schedule.


;)

[Justin Montois]

The IRI match schedule is always amazing to see. Normally at Champs you look at your matches to see if you get to play with or against any powerhouses. That entire match schedule is filled with amazing matches.

I'm just sorry I have to watch it on the webcast :(

[Koko Ed]

Assuming everyone shows up to the event tomorrow, (and no additional bribes are collected), we will run the attached Match Schedule.


;)
Jacob what time do you want me to stop lining teams up for practice matches?

[Koko Ed]

Assuming everyone shows up to the event tomorrow, (and no additional bribes are collected), we will run the attached Match Schedule.


;)
76 matches on day one.
just thinking about it make me tired.
Early bedtime for me....

[Joe Ross]

I used Ed Law's Post Championship Highest Event OPRs to simulate the match schedule.

OPRs:
Team Rating
111 73.92475128
1114 71.88417816
2056 67.4726181
71 66.36641693
1503 65.43378448
67 64.19780731
987 62.37874603
217 61.00844574
74 60.72906876
781 60.21537018
330 60.0241394
234 58.7022171
2415 57.92324829
25 57.04471588
33 56.70747375
48 56.17886353
1538 55.88414383
341 55.70706177
118 55.24176788
1730 54.07565689
359 51.8482933
469 50.5631218
11 48.94416428
2122 47.48712921
1126 46.36853409
399 45.98612976
1625 45.68838882
3098 45.60036469
2016 45.56438065
3138 45.35906982
973 43.65608215
573 43.65222549
51 42.68559265
2337 42.47858047
548 42.42366791
16 41.77279663
245 41.57632446
1732 41.14710617
125 40.98505783
233 40.32484055
1519 40.13070679
494 39.87134171
135 37.2743187
2081 36.51197052
931 35.80182648
1718 34.89387512
1501 34.52032089
292 33.35364532
829 33.35157013
1024 33.13980865
1038 32.54025269
1477 31.75396919
910 30.07277298
2826 27.85185432
1640 27.30614471
1018 25.61044884
1741 24.7753849
1902 24.38159561
1675 22.93331528
868 20.68315125
447 17.94485474
45 16.51804352
1720 11.3045454
303 10.9291687
1747 5.723826885
461 3.081658363

Match Results:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 Red Blue
1 829 573 25 1675 1126 1501 134 104
2 781 67 118 33 910 292 179 120
3 2826 1538 1741 234 548 469 109 152
4 461 3138 1114 1519 1038 2056 120 140
5 1640 217 1477 2415 1902 494 120 122
6 341 868 111 399 1747 330 151 112
7 1018 135 71 1625 45 931 129 99
8 987 3098 2337 2122 245 303 150 100
9 447 359 973 1503 1720 1732 114 117
10 233 16 74 11 125 2016 143 136
11 1730 1718 1024 51 2081 48 122 136
12 330 910 1477 3138 2826 217 122 134
13 829 2337 1640 1018 1114 399 102 144
14 987 469 1747 781 45 1720 119 88
15 11 3098 1741 973 1519 111 120 158
16 1675 2056 51 359 931 67 133 152
17 1501 2081 234 1503 74 71 131 192
18 447 573 118 2122 233 135 117 124
19 16 868 494 1126 1730 548 103 142
20 2415 1038 1718 125 33 1732 126 139
21 1024 1902 461 2016 292 1538 60 135
22 303 341 25 48 245 1625 124 144
23 829 51 217 118 973 1747 137 105
24 1126 330 1018 2081 359 1741 132 114
25 16 1519 3138 2337 868 2415 127 121
26 447 1730 292 987 1477 11 105 143
27 1538 67 1675 135 74 111 143 172
28 341 2056 1503 548 1718 233 188 117
29 245 3098 931 781 2016 461 124 109
30 910 1038 71 469 25 1640 129 135
31 303 48 125 573 45 1902 108 85
32 1625 1501 2826 399 1732 1024 109 120
33 2122 234 1720 494 33 1114 117 169
34 2081 2056 1018 447 2415 781 130 136
35 1640 2016 1718 3138 67 111 108 183
36 461 910 11 303 868 573 82 76
37 1538 973 399 48 931 1126 146 138
38 71 1114 16 987 51 1741 180 130
39 1519 1732 1730 25 1747 292 135 96
40 1675 125 1503 469 1024 2122 129 131
41 217 45 1038 3098 234 233 111 145
42 548 1720 1477 1501 2337 135 85 114
43 118 359 74 341 494 2826 168 124
44 245 330 33 829 1902 1625 159 103
45 1018 987 125 25 67 868 129 142
46 1730 931 1741 1503 573 217 115 170
47 1732 11 2337 781 48 234 132 175
48 118 111 2081 461 45 548 166 62
49 1625 1747 1538 2122 1640 2056 108 141
50 399 2016 1675 303 494 447 115 69
51 16 330 1902 135 1718 3098 126 118
52 1126 51 292 2826 1038 1720 122 72
53 1024 71 3138 359 233 829 144 125
54 74 2415 1501 245 1114 910 154 144
55 469 33 1519 973 341 1477 148 132
56 1718 494 45 25 461 2337 92 102
57 303 1732 931 1640 67 1741 88 116
58 573 48 1024 3098 2056 1720 133 124
59 548 2826 245 1747 1114 447 112 96
60 233 2415 51 292 469 330 141 144
61 1477 2016 1038 868 829 1503 111 119
62 217 399 135 1519 2081 125 144 118
63 118 910 234 1675 987 1625 144 131
64 71 111 1126 2122 341 781 186 163
65 1018 1902 3138 973 1730 74 95 159
66 359 16 11 1538 33 1501 143 148
67 1114 829 48 447 469 931 161 105
68 2826 1503 399 67 2415 3098 139 168
69 217 245 868 71 1675 1732 124 130
70 1747 303 233 1477 1018 1718 57 93
71 1720 1741 25 2056 118 11 93 171
72 1024 1625 973 1038 2337 494 123 115
73 573 292 341 2081 3138 1538 133 138
74 2122 330 45 2016 1501 16 124 123
75 234 987 461 1640 135 1126 124 110
76 74 1902 781 51 1519 548 145 125
77 111 33 359 125 1730 910 183 125
78 3098 1114 2081 1477 118 1675 155 110
79 1625 399 1720 1718 16 217 103 138
80 135 3138 494 1747 245 1503 122 113
81 1018 2016 1519 573 2826 234 112 131
82 45 11 2415 1024 829 341 124 122
83 303 1501 781 1730 1038 1538 106 143
84 461 973 67 548 330 71 111 168
85 359 48 2122 1741 868 292 155 79
86 33 25 447 1640 74 51 132 131
87 233 931 125 910 1126 2337 117 118
88 469 1732 2056 1902 987 111 159 160
89 2016 1730 2415 1720 118 71 158 132
90 1477 67 1519 45 245 1024 136 92
91 868 1114 135 973 781 1718 130 139
92 2337 33 1503 25 217 330 164 178
93 987 399 548 359 573 1038 150 129
94 3098 1126 469 74 1625 3138 143 152
95 1732 910 51 1018 1538 494 114 122
96 1501 341 447 1741 125 461 109 69
97 2122 931 1747 11 2081 1902 89 110
98 234 2056 292 829 303 16 159 86
99 1640 111 1675 2826 48 233 124 124

Standings
Rank Team Wins Losses Ties Matches QP RS MP
1 111 8 0 1 9 17 124 186
2 74 8 1 0 9 16 130.22 192
3 48 7 1 1 9 15 114.78 175
4 33 7 2 0 9 14 129 183
5 71 7 2 0 9 14 127.11 192
6 330 7 2 0 9 14 123.11 178
7 3138 7 2 0 9 14 120 183
8 67 7 2 0 9 14 118.11 183
9 234 7 2 0 9 14 115.44 175
10 2415 6 3 0 9 12 130.56 168
11 469 6 3 0 9 12 126.11 159
12 217 6 3 0 9 12 120.22 178
13 987 6 3 0 9 12 120.11 160
14 25 6 3 0 9 12 118 178
15 1538 6 3 0 9 12 117.11 148
16 1519 6 3 0 9 12 115.11 158
17 135 6 3 0 9 12 114.78 172
18 399 6 3 0 9 12 113.22 150
19 1503 5 4 0 9 10 125.89 192
20 781 5 4 0 9 10 122.56 179
21 3098 5 4 0 9 10 119.33 168
22 2056 5 4 0 9 10 118.89 188
23 1126 5 4 0 9 10 118.22 186
24 16 5 4 0 9 10 118.11 180
25 1732 5 4 0 9 10 118 159
26 973 5 4 0 9 10 117.78 159
27 1114 5 4 0 9 10 117.11 180
28 2122 5 4 0 9 10 113.89 163
29 11 5 4 0 9 10 112.89 171
30 2081 5 4 0 9 10 112.11 166
31 1730 5 4 0 9 10 111 159
32 1024 5 4 0 9 10 110.89 144
33 118 5 4 0 9 10 110.44 179
34 1902 5 4 0 9 10 106 160
35 1018 5 4 0 9 10 105.78 144
36 548 5 4 0 9 10 104.11 168
37 359 4 5 0 9 8 120.67 183
38 2337 4 5 0 9 8 114.22 164
39 1501 4 5 0 9 8 112.67 154
40 245 4 5 0 9 8 111.67 159
41 573 4 5 0 9 8 110.56 170
42 494 4 5 0 9 8 107.44 169
43 829 4 5 0 9 8 107 161
44 292 4 5 0 9 8 99.11 159
45 233 3 5 1 9 7 116.11 145
46 1640 3 5 1 9 7 113.33 141
47 2826 3 5 1 9 7 111.89 139
48 341 3 6 0 9 6 121.78 188
49 910 3 6 0 9 6 119.78 144
50 51 3 6 0 9 6 119.22 141
51 1625 3 6 0 9 6 115 152
52 868 3 6 0 9 6 109.44 151
53 1718 3 6 0 9 6 108.11 139
54 2016 3 6 0 9 6 106.67 158
55 447 3 6 0 9 6 104 136
56 1477 3 6 0 9 6 103.78 143
57 461 3 6 0 9 6 89.89 124
58 1675 2 6 1 9 5 118.56 143
59 125 2 7 0 9 4 114.89 139
60 1038 2 7 0 9 4 113.22 143
61 931 2 7 0 9 4 110.33 152
62 45 2 7 0 9 4 97.11 124
63 1720 1 8 0 9 2 103.11 132
64 1741 1 8 0 9 2 101.89 130
65 1747 1 8 0 9 2 96 119
66 303 1 8 0 9 2 87.89 124

There are 3 matches where each alliance has a combined OPR of more then 158:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 Red Blue
64 71 111 1126 2122 341 781 186 163
92 2337 33 1503 25 217 330 164 178
88 469 1732 2056 1902 987 111 159 160


Here are the closest matches:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 Red Blue
99 1640 111 1675 2826 48 233 124 124
88 469 1732 2056 1902 987 111 159 160
86 33 25 447 1640 74 51 132 131
74 2122 330 45 2016 1501 16 124 123
87 233 931 125 910 1126 2337 117 118
40 1675 125 1503 469 1024 2122 129 131
82 45 11 2415 1024 829 341 124 122
5 1640 217 1477 2415 1902 494 120 122
60 233 2415 51 292 469 330 141 144
9 447 359 973 1503 1720 1732 114 117

Alliances are predicted to score more then 100 points 88% of the time.

[Frenchie461]

I used Ed Law's Post Championship Highest Event OPRs to simulate the match schedule.
(-snip-)


the problem with this is that it's working off of old data. For example, 461 didn't work at Boilermaker (our only event this year), but at MARC we were finalists.

[Ankit S.]

I used Ed Law's Post Championship Highest Event OPRs to simulate the match schedule.

(more snipping)



In the match results I saw a couple of REALLY high scores, around 180-190.

I though the highest score possible for IRI was around 165-170?

[JB987]

Just curious, Joe...what was the accuracy of your previous computed predictions?

[GearsOfFury]

In the match results I saw a couple of REALLY high scores, around 180-190.

I though the highest score possible for IRI was around 165-170?

17 1501 2081 234 1503 74 71 131 192

Seems OPR could use something other than a straight normal distribution prediction? Maybe lognormal? :)

[Ed Law]

Great job Joe.

In terms of accuracy, I think somebody on CD did a study this year and found that using highest OPR is a little more accurate than other ways this year. I put in the predictions for championship divisions in the spreadsheet that I published using highest OPR.

Team 2834 2011_Scouting_Database Championship v4

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174

Since JB987 asked for it, I put in a few formula in that spreadsheet and this is what I got for Championship by division during qualifying rounds in terms of percent of time it predicted a win.

Archimedes 73.4%
Curie 74.1%
Galileo 76.9%
Newton 81.0%

Is it perfect? No. Close matches that could have gone either way, mistakes made by teams and better strategy by underdog alliance explained why it was not perfect. What about the actual scores? Some were amazingly close. Knowing the prediction ahead of time that you have an uphill battle allows you to change your strategy and hopefully come out on top.

For IRI, the accuracy may be lower. These are all top notch teams and everyone can score with minibot. However only two minibots can score so that explains why the predicted OPR exceeds the maximum allowed. Also there are only so many tubes to hang unlike the soccer balls last year that can be recycled. Does it matter? No, if an alliance has a higher combined predicted OPR, it still has a higher chance of winning. The extra minibot may be just an insurance if one partner cannot get their's up.

Since this is offseason, there are a lot of other factors. New drivers, upgrade to robots, etc. that will reduce the accuracy.

The predicted score also does not take into account human error: referee that threw a tube right betweeen the tower and your partner's robot when they were about to go to the tower to score their minibot, the extra time to get around the tube costed us a tiebreak match and was eliminated in quarterfinal. These things happen and I am okay with it. It helps to explain why predictions are not always correct.

[mwmac]

Thru match 12: 6 predicted wins, 6 upsets

[dodar]

The prediction stuff up in the middle of the thread has the alliances backwards.

[Joe Ross]

Thru match 12: 6 predicted wins, 6 upsets

After match 12, it got 14 in a row correct. Overall, 67% today.

The prediction stuff up in the middle of the thread has the alliances backwards.

Sorry, I didn't notice that blue was first in the posted schedule.

[whytheheckme]

Ranking report! (not official - should be 99% accurate :) )

P.S. - I loved the Fresh Prince of IRI act :)

[KF987]

Anyone have the final qualification match results?