YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2012's Week 1 Regionals

[Ian Curtis]

Fourth time around! Include a breakdown, point-by-point, ball-by-ball, or just a number of the average alliance score. Mostly, this thread is so we can look back in eight weeks and realize how terribly wrong we were. Qualifying round is probably the most useful, but elimination scores are interesting to try and peg as well.

For your perusing pleasure, here's last year's thread: Predict the Average Match Score of 2011's Week 1 Regionals (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?p=993012)
And two years thread: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2010's Week 1 Regionals (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79968)
And three years ago's thread: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2009's Week 1 Regionals (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=71231)

In 2011 excluding eliminations the average alliance scored about 34 points.

[DMetalKong]

Hybrid Mode

On average 1 ball in low hoop = 4 points

Teleop Mode

Time to cross field: 20 sec
Time to reload: 5 sec
Time to score: 5 sec
Total turnaround time: 30 sec
Points/turnaround: 2 points

Average points in teleop = 8

I do not expect to see balancing occur that often, and if it does the teleop score is probably a bit high to compensate.

Average week 1 score = 12 points

[ahollenbach]

Hybrid Mode
5 points (1 ball in middle hoop)

Teleop Mode
4X across the field, for 3*2points each (middle hoop for all three balls), but there will not always be 3 balls waiting, so
15 points for a fairly good robot
5 points from the other two robots in the alliance
10 points for one robot balancing

Average score: 35 points

[sgreco]

2079 estimated the average score to be around 16 week one. We estimate it will move up to 20 in later weeks and elims. We estimated the high score of the year to be 40.

[Karibou]

Since penalties add points to your opponent's score, I expect the scores to be a bit higher. Maybe around 20 points.

[EricLeifermann]

sorry week one.... should read before i post..

15

[KrazyCarl92]

15 without penalties, 20 including penalties
Remember, average score includes those plentiful times that 3 robots are placed on the field and maybe one has something figured out, sometimes none.

[Lil' Lavery]

We estimated the high score of the year to be 40.

A high tier alliance could very well get 36 in hybrid alone, if not more.

[Tetraman]

A high tier alliance could very well get 36 in hybrid alone, if not more.

Totally agreed.

I'm guessing around 40 on the low end, 70 on the high end, so around 50 on the average for Week 1, and 80 during Elimination matches, with 110 being the high score.

[EricLeifermann]

Totally agreed.

I'm guessing around 40 on the low end, 70 on the high end, so around 50 on the average for Week 1, and 80 during Elimination matches, with 110 being the high score.

I think 110 is pushing it because you have to rely on the other alliance to either score or put the balls back into play and your alliance get to them 1st. You also can only hold 3 balls at a time thats a max of 9 points at a time...

[Cyberphil]

Since my guess from last year was way off, I will say somewhere around 20 average score on the first week, though I would have to mess with the ramps to see how difficult it will be to balance.

[Tetraman]

I think 110 is pushing it because you have to rely on the other alliance to either score or put the balls back into play and your alliance get to them 1st. You also can only hold 3 balls at a time thats a max of 9 points at a time...

Each robot on the alliance scores each of their 2 balls held, plus one robot will go back to take the balls from a bridge and score. A total of 48 points right there.

Each robot on that alliance scores 5 balls each in Teleop. That's 15 points per robot, which is 45 points total from those. And scoring 15 balls all together can be a low amount.

Two robots on a bridge at the end scores a solid 20, or 40 for three robots during the Elims.

That's 113 points in Qualifications and 133 points in Eliminations. Take that and add the number of times your opponent fouled.

Oh 110+ is happening at least twice per regional event.

[EricLeifermann]

Each robot on the alliance scores each of their 2 balls held, plus one robot will go back to take the balls from a bridge and score. A total of 48 points right there.

Each robot on that alliance scores 5 balls each in Teleop. That's 15 points per robot, which is 45 points total from those.

Two robots on a bridge at the end scores a solid 20, or 40 for three robots during the Elims.

That's 113 points in Qualifications and 133 points in Eliminations. Take that and add the number of times your opponent fouled.

Oh 110+ is happening at least twice per regional event.

Im not saying it wont happen Im saying it wont happen in the 1st week.

[Cyberphil]

Each robot on the alliance scores each of their 2 balls held, plus one robot will go back to take the balls from a bridge and score. A total of 48 points right there.

Each robot on that alliance scores 5 balls each in Teleop. That's 15 points per robot, which is 45 points total from those. And scoring 15 balls all together can be a low amount.

Two robots on a bridge at the end scores a solid 20, or 40 for three robots during the Elims.

That's 113 points in Qualifications and 133 points in Eliminations. Take that and add the number of times your opponent fouled.

Oh 110+ is happening at least twice per regional event.

You are assuming every single ball will be placed into the top basket. Do you really think each robot on an alliance will be able to not just score on the top basket, but score 5 balls on that basket?

Also taking time into account, one alliance scoring 15 balls in the top basket in 2 minutes means each score is an average of 8 seconds including picking up the balls, getting to the basket, lining up, and scoring all while avoiding defense. Although that is possible, in a first week regional do you think most, if not any teams will be able to set up for a score in 8 seconds?

Taking into account the possibility of scoring 3 with one setup makes a lot more sense. 24 seconds to do all of that with a few seconds to score works out for me, but still not on the top basket.

I really love discussions like this! It really gets you a feel of how the game will hopefully workout (even though it almost never goes as expected).

[stingray27]

I totally agree with Tetraman on the end of the year scores, Although i think the Avg score for 1st week will be 24. Everyone NEEDS to read the manual. If you haven't realized it yet, the bridges are CRUCIAL. Read 5.3.3 on. They will be determining your ranking seed and will be the most important part for the teams to focus on. Im guessing a 92 high score at the end of the year with a 55 high score after week 2. Definitely will be interesting.

[Marc S.]

Considering the average amount of tubes scored last year at the championship by each robot during a match was about 1, and the average score in 2010 was less than 1, i'm going to say that the AVERAGE SCORE will be around 8. I would guess lower but also considering that a foul gives your opponent 3 points I suspect a 0-0 match may be very uncommon.

[wilhitern1]

I suspect a 0-0 match may be very uncommon.

Very quickly, everyone is going to realize that any robot can score pretty much every time the shoot at the low basket.
Say 4 in auto
9 in tele
And It is trivial for a single robot to balance,
10 for balance.
= 23
Then you have to account for the slackers. (Unfortunately my team could be one. We are only a +1) Say an average of 16 per side.

[Dancin103]

24.

[Xenozero]

I say given that you can pretty much score in autonomous ill call 10-20 in auto.

In teleop, considering that the rebounder is only allowed to hold 2 balls that leaves 4 balls on the court with the optional 2 on the platform, given this much ammunition and an average load to score time being maybe 20 seconds for a good bot that gives about 12 pts in teleop (given the other 2 bots dont really score and leave the good bot to do the work).

In the endgame, ill give the standard 10 pts because its pretty easy to balance one bot on such a big platform.

my avg score mid tourney = 32 to 42 points

[George Nishimura]

I expect qualification to be around 10-15, Elimination to get around 30-40.

So let's average it out at 20.

[Lil' Lavery]

Very quickly, everyone is going to realize that any robot can score pretty much every time the shoot at the low basket.


I seriously question this notion.

[LafondaOnFire]

I'm predicting it will be higher than everyone is thinking...

I bet we'll see some qualification matches with scores of 0-0, or the only points given are from penalties, thus, deciding on a winner. I also bet we'll see some matches with two high-tier robots on each alliance, thus, making each score ~ 50.

But as far as average goes, I predict on average, at least one basketball will be scored in autonomous. Let's say 5 points.
I predict we'll see somewhere around 10 points per alliance in teleop.
And probably one robot on each alliance will attempt to balance. Another 10 points - it should be much easier for a single robot.

The first time a double balance is achieved, the audience will be rather impressed, I'm sure.
25 points for an average match. But being the first week, there will be many penalties.
Let's say 6 penalty points - two penalties per alliance.

25 w/o penalties. 31 with.
We shall see in just over 6 weeks time...

[pandamonium]

27 points... :)

[Bjenks548]

Just for fun I'm going to say guess the top score at the kettering district week 1 this year. With some high powered teams such as 33,51,70,494,2337 (no offence to the other teams there these 5 always seem to be on top of their game) and many other teams with good bots every year.
Average Elims Top Score
Auto 12 24 36
Teleop 15 33 50
End game 10 20 40(1 alliance will do this!)
Totals 37 74 126

Of course this is way to early to tell exactly how the game will be played out but its always fun to guess!

[penguinfrk]

Week 1:
Average score qualifications: 35
Average score eliminations: 50
Top score: 100

[Austin2046]

Week 1:
Average score qualifications: 35
Average score eliminations: 50
Top score: 100

I'm betting the average elimination score will be higher considering the 40 points for 3 robots balancing... altho how hard that'll be has yet to be determined.

I'll agree 35 is about the average week one qualifying score. 20 for 2 robots balancing (i dont think that'll be too difficult) 15 points in balls. not many scored in autonomous, fewer scored in teleop.

[bardd]

My estimation is that alliances will score around 20-30 points on average, with fouls pushing the score to around 50.

[Ian Curtis]

Let's add a little data to the flames. Below is a histogram of alliance scores in week 1 of 2006 according to the Blue Alliance. That is New Jersey, VCU, and the Pacific Northwest. So it is missing at least BAE, others may be missing too. The mean points scored per alliance was 28.2, this would be after penalties.

http://i.imgur.com/WtTKn.jpg

There are a lot of similarities between 2006 and 2012, but I would argue on the whole the 2012 is a much more technically challenging game with fewer opportunities for points. On the flipside, penalties add points to the other alliance's score.

[wilhitern1]

I seriously question this notion.

If you pull directly in front of the basket, as close as you can get, all you need is a fixed ramp.

But it is all opinion. Everyone is free to question anything...

[Peter Matteson]

Let's add a little data to the flames. Below is a histogram of alliance scores in week 1 of 2006 according to the Blue Alliance. That is New Jersey, VCU, and the Pacific Northwest. So it is missing at least BAE, others may be missing too. The mean points scored per alliance was 28.2, this would be after penalties.

There are a lot of similarities between 2006 and 2012, but I would argue on the whole the 2012 is a much more technically challenging game with fewer opportunities for points. On the flipside, penalties add points to the other alliance's score.

Also remember there was a 25 point bonus for 3 robots on a ramp in 2006.

This game is a lot harder, but with the penalty offset I think 40 is a reasonable score for week 1 quals at good events.
2x(2+3) auto = 12pts
6 balls in telop = 12pts
1 bot ramp = 10pts
2 fouls = 6pts
Total = 40

[Laaba 80]

Also remember there was a 25 point bonus for 3 robots on a ramp in 2006.

And a 10 point bonus for winning autonomous mode

[GaryVoshol]

If you pull directly in front of the basket, as close as you can get, all you need is a fixed ramp.

How long can that ramp be? And how close can the robot get to the hoop?

[om23]

average score will probably be around 50 points per alliance.

[wilhitern1]

How long can that ramp be? And how close can the robot get to the hoop?

<<<How close>>> I think we decided 5 inches. If the ramp is troughly 45 degrees and 6 inches above the lowest rim...

[Jared Russell]

Before fouls, I'm thinking a week one average of 20 points per alliance per Qualifying round.

The coopertition bridge will be a big reason why it is not higher.

[EpicLegacy]

In week 1 I'd predict maybe an average of 30 points assuming at least one robot can score in autonomous(or at least in the bottom hoop), and that the Robots will be designed well enough to score around 10 points in the teleop and that they will be able to balance a single robot on the ramp.

so 8 - 12 for auto
~10 in teleop
and 10 for bridge
so around 30 + any foul points

and that should see an increase to 50 as drivers get more experience with the game and into the eliminations. Should be around 70-80 in the championships as the better designed robots and veteran teams should be able to score/balance much better than teams at the regional event. also the possibility for a 40 point bridge score.

just my two cents on the matter...

[IKE]

Survey says... 15.4 points (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=104267). I think Jared should get points for predicting his event pretty well (believe that PAH came in aroun 19 pts on average).

My prediction was 13.8 basing it off of previous history. I was a bad FIRST mentor as I kept this value secret as I consider it to have pretty strong strategic value.

How did you guys do?

[artdutra04]

My prediction was 13.8 basing it off of previous history. I was a bad FIRST mentor as I kept this value secret as I consider it to have pretty strong strategic value.

How did you guys do?My original guess that I made shortly after Kickoff (and never posted for similar reasons) was 14 points per match per alliance, with 7.4 points of those coming from scored balls.

Not too bad, although I lost the guessing game for some events if we go by Price is Right rules. :)

[Ian Curtis]

Thanks Art and IKE, interesting to see what the pros think!

I'm actually pretty impressed with the quality of many of the prediction in this thread, predictions between 10 and 20 were common, and that basically covered the range of events we saw.

I guess I never wrote mine down in the thread, but I guessed 12 on a combination of historical data and feel. Once I get the twitter feed (or anyone does) I'll be really interested to see the ball v. balance point balance looked like.

[D.Allred]

Survey says... [URL="http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=104267"]
How did you guys do?

I had rounded my estimate off to 15 points. Fouls adding to the score was a new wrinkle that was hard to predict. I had 2 points on average coming from fouls. Did anyone collect that data? It was very hard to scout.