Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

You forgot to include the Israeli teams in it...

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

Yes, that was done in the week 1 OPR thread and it was really cool.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

I should have been clearer. When I said "TeleOp" I meant a TeleOp hoop power rating. Be aware that the "TeleOp" in the data you are using is actually TeleOp hoop plus Foul Points.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

What version of OPRNet did you use to calculate these?

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

Mathematically speaking, it's an exact (and unique) solution to a least-squares problem.

Good description, but replace the phrase "match scores" with whatever alliance metric is being analyzed.

No iteration is necessary since the set of simultaneous equations is linear in the parameters. It can be solved directly without iteration by forming the normal equations for the system and then using matrix methods (this is how all the solvers I have seen here on CD do it). It can also be solved by using matrix methods directly on the design matrix without forming the normal equations. This latter method is numerically more stable and provides greater precision, but it is more computation-intensive and is overkill for this application.

For those interested in the math, a short explanation of the matrix math required to solve the normal equations is given here.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

Here is the raw match-by-match data for weeks 1 and 2 in an Excel spreadsheet.

This includes qualification, elimination, and practice data for all regional and district events which have taken place so far this season, with the exception of Oregon and Traverse City.

It includes Bridge, Foul, Hybrid, TeleOp hoops, and Coopertition data for each match.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

Could you do it like it is in the week 1 thread? It would make it easier to read for each team.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

The thing about Oregon is that the teams that won, won because they had a good strategy, which was also a strategy that none of them implemented before the finals. Together they pulled off triple balance after triple balance, but when they played on there own during the qualification matches, they had significantly lower scores (on average).

Basically, they have a lot of low scores to balance out the high ones they got during eliminations, while other teams in the finals (1983 specifically) were high scorers throughout the entire event.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

I decided not to assign points for Coopertition points and just calculate OPR for Coopertition bridge as is. So that number represents number of Coopertition points per match. Teams can assign their own point value to it and add to the OPR of bridge points if they like. My philosophy has always been encouraging teams to customize the spreadsheet for their own need so I don't decide how they should modify the data.

Our first hand experience competing at an event this year shows that it is easier to balance with your own alliance partner than with someone who is over 50 feet away from you. This is the reason I want to look at balancing alliance bridge and coopertition bridge separately.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

Thanks for clarifying where I was misleading - I know my knowledge of OPR calculations is somewhat lacking... I was hoping I could clear up some confusion and initiate someone like you, Bongle, or Ed Law clearing up where I was confused.

Thanks for all you guys bring to those of us who use and appreciate the stats but lack the software and statistical experience to generate them.


Nathan

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

Interesting numbers! I think graphs always help data make a lot more sense. I accidentally left my laptop charger at a friends, so I don't have access to my best friend Stata right now. However, Excel works in a pinch.

The first graph essentially plots the distribution of OPRs since they are ranked in the data file. You can see that there is a very sharp drop off among the truly excellent teams, a wide flat region, and then a drop off on the tail end. If I had to bet, I would say the teams that are ranked extremely poorly probably played mostly with excellent teams in bad matches, and to make the math work out ended up with negative numbers. Since penalties do not subtract from scores this year, you'd have to be intentionally awful to interfere with your partners enough to really hurt their OPR. Also, there were 1009 points in this data set, so going by 100s you can basically break OPR up into percentiles.



The next graph shows OPR versus team number (which is a fairly decent approximation for age). With an R-square of .076, it obviously doesn't explain all of the variation, but I think it is interesting to see the general trends (and watch 2056 absolutely decimate one of them).



Finally, the last one to me is the most interesting. It plots the distribution of Week 1 and Week 2 OPRs, and is normalized by the number of teams since significantly more teams played Week 1 than Week 2. I apologize for the smallness of the graph, but this computer is ancient and apparently asking Powerpoint to resize this was asking way too much as the computer crashed a couple of times just getting to this point. As you can see, the top tier teams didn't change much, and the teams that didn't score much stayed essentially the same. However, the middle of the road teams to upper middle of the road got a couple of points better. I would think this is exactly what we'd hope to see (although more lifting on the extreme low end would be nice too), it should provide more exciting balanced matches.


(one you can blow up more)

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

Has anyone run the hybrid, teleop and bridge power ratings for Week 2? (as in Week 1) Also, I hope it doesn't make too big an impact, but do the teleop ratings include foul points? As I understand it, the TPs FIRST reports in the standings include fouls, but the Twitter feed breaks them out.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

For OPRNet (which is also the source of the below data), the TeleOp and OPR scores both include foul points accrued. It'd take too much time to parse the twitter feeds to figure out the foul points.

2056's teleop: Wow.

Edit: Initially forgot the district events. Fixed.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

I'm always forgetting the district events because they're at the bottom of FIRST's regional listing... just a sec.

Re: Week--2 All regionals OPR
 

You changed Hybrid to Bridge. Now there is bridge twice.