| Looking Forward |
14-03-2012 22:09 |
Predictions Week 3: Full Court Press
The story of week two was all about the bridges. Coopertition points sky rocketed, headlined by 67 capturing 22 of 24 possible CP and the controversy surrounding GTR-East. The center bridge will continue to be a focal point at competitive events in the coming weeks, and the strategy and ethics discussions surrounding it won't die away quickly. Waterford demonstrated the coopertition point totals that can be put up at deep events, but totals like that will be hard to match in shallower fields.
The focus shifted about ten feet to each side of the field during eliminations. Triple balance attempts and successes became much more regular last weekend. 360, 956, and 3711 rode the triple balance all the way from the #8 seed to the regional championship in Oregon. The Waterford finals displayed the first simultaneous triple balance of the season (if only "triple double" wasn't so misleading, I'd shoe-horn it in for more basketball terminology). Perhaps the one dent on 341 and 1218's resumes is their lack of success with the 40-point bonus in Chestnut Hill, with four failed attempts leading to a switch to double balancing in the finals. Teams like 67 and 148 can accomplish the task quickly and reliably, but simply driving on the ramp has been enough for other alliances.
The shackles off half-field play were shaken a little bit during week two. More teams, primarily high level ones, incorporated quick barrier crossing to stock up on balls into their game plan. And a few teams started to take on the "point guard" role of back court defense and passing balls forward. While defense remains sporadic and only moderately effective against higher level scoring machines, anticipate an slowly increasing level of full court play and more structured alliances.
What to watch for: - It's a rare occasion that the Thunder Chickens leave an event empty handed. Chesapeake was just the third time since 2004, counting Championship, that 217 left an event without an award. The Thunder Chickens showed some promise, but consistency issues and strong scoring from their opponents sent them packing in the semi-finals. They'll look to bounce back in Detroit, but it will take some improvement.
- After a win in Waterford, 469 looks to be the favorite in Detroit. It remains to be seen if they can carry an alliance without a triple balance specialist like the HOT bot. That leaves the door open for a team like 51 to contend with them in the eliminations, provided they aren't on the same alliance.
- Some of the more creative ways of balancing haven't had much success this season. Three "landing pads" are going to give it a go this weekend. 1501, 701, and 2054 should all make for some interesting elimination matches. Will they accomplish a triple balance? Will it be more reliable than traditional balancing? More adaptable than "stingers?"
- Montreal is the least experienced event of the season. Of the 37 teams competing, only six have numbers less than 3000. Eighteen teams (48.6% of the field) are rookies.
- Comment la barrière de la langue impact de Montréal? [Awkward online translation fully intentional]
- Someone tell the judges (and fans) to stop recording events on their iPads. It blocks the view of people behind them.
- There's a significant discrepancy is competitive level between the two California events this weekend, beyond just the sixteen additional teams in Los Angeles. Teams like 1138 and 696 will be "on the bubble" to be alliance captains in LA, but would be some of the top handful of teams in Sacramento.
- 971's fender shooter has the ability to ride their veteran drive crew to gold at UC Davis. 100, 1868, and 115 should also be in the mix, but they all have their own respective challenges to overcome.
- Aside of the triple balance, hybrid scoring has been the primary cause of upsets in the elimination matches. Poor execution in the first 15 seconds can spell disaster regardless of how the next two minutes go.
- As the VCU basketball team attempts to replicate their miracle Final Four run from last season with their brand of defensive basketball, the regional held at their home court could match that defensive intensity. It will be interesting to see how an event that is traditionally a slug 'em out affair will adapt to the strict foul rules. Fender scoring teams like 1598 will have to be wary, and it will place a premium on successful key shooters. If 2363, 1086, or 1885 can consistently drain triples from the protected zone, they'll be favorites to win.
- With all the inexperience in Quebec this weekend, the veterans will be looked at to provide most of the offense. 173 and 176 are the biggest names at the event, and both had mixed performances in Suffield. 296 won the FRC Championship in 2006 and is the oldest Quebecois team, but hasn't been able to find much success in recent years with their only elimination trip since 2007 coming as the 24th selection. But it's Hatboro semifinalists 2590 who may stand on top if they can build off their earlier performance.
- Black robots are in style in Georgia. 1771, 1311, 2815, and rookies 4163 are all bringing black machines out to play in Duluth. These teams, along with 343, 2415 (who've both sported black in the past) and 1319, will be some of the prime contenders in an event that's much stronger than it was a few years ago.
- Last weekend, 1065 became the first three point shooter to really utilize the sides of the fender to score. It will be curious to see if more teams pick up on this ability (despite the lack of camera tracking) in order to give defenders are harder time.
- New York City has always been a large event, but the competitive level has never been one to write home about. Spearheaded by some MAR and New England expatriates (not to mention teams from Brazil and Turkey), the top tier of the field should be a little more populated for Rebound Rumble than in years past. But NYC mainstay 694 will do their best to keep as much hardware in the Big Apple as possible.
- Human loading has been largely absent so far in this year, and will likely continue to be until an alliance attempts to go with a ball starvation strategy. But with the scoring emphasis currently placed heavily on autonomous and the end game, most teams will continue to have their priorities elsewhere.
- Happy [Fighting] Pi Day. 1718 will be one of two high-profile Michigan teams, 910 the other, competing for the first time in
West Michigan. Many members of the field will be making their second outing, so both of these teams will have to be on their toes from the beginning if they want to control their destiny at alliance selection time. - There's a chance for a victory re-union this weekend, as 1918, 85, 1677, and 4326 (as a replacement bot) won Gull Lake together and will all be competing at West Michigan. While NC Gears is almost guaranteed to be a primary contender again, the case for B.O.B. will be more interesting. Will their quick, 2-point fender scoring strategy hold in what should be a tougher event?
- Things didn't go quite as Eagle Robotics planned in San Diego, yet they still managed to play well enough to reach the finals. 399 will have their sights set on gold in Utah. With bridge specialist 2789 the only other team with any 2012 experience so far, 399 has a good shot at reaching their goal. But they'll need to avoid the qualification hiccups in order to better control their destiny during alliance selection.
- Indiana has long been one of the hot beds of FIRST. If any team can drag a blue banner away from the Boilermaker regional into a different state, it'll be Wisconsin's 1732. The Hilltoppers have yet to compete in Rebound Rumble, which it true of most of the roster at Purdue, but will put them at a disadvantage compared to a couple of the other top contenders.
- 2016 and 2234 will both be competing at their third event of the season when they unbag at Javits. The Mighty Monkey Wrenches left each of their previous two district events with silver, while Surf & Turf reached the quarters twice despite lackluster qualification performances. 1676 is the other MAR power player at the event, coming off of a performance in Rutgers where they had 10 more QP than any other team on their way to a district championship. All of these teams will need better performances to keep their success rolling in NYC, but its within their reach if they execute well.
- 125, 195, and 2168 will all aim to bring hardware north from NYC, as each unbags their bot for the first time this season. The Aluminum Falcons may be the best of the bunch, with a solid performance in Suffield only showing the beginning of their robot's potential. But the Nu-Trons and Cyber Knights both have well crafted machines. 125 has had struggles performing to their top capabilities in the past. All three of these teams should be alliance captains or early selections.
- Cyber Blue demonstrated a lot of potential in Smokey Mountain and left Tennessee with a gold medal. But 234 is going to have to improve their accuracy and autonomous scoring in order to match that success at Boilermaker. They paired with the best team in Knoxville (772), but there should hopefully be more top level scoring from teams like 45, 868, and 1024 (who's been up and down in recent years) than we saw at 234's previous event.
- Los Angeles has the potential to have some excellent elimination matches. There's no clear favorite, but with teams 973, 987, 1717, and 330 in attendance there should be no shortage of high-end firepower. If any of them can throw significant aid the direction of the triple balance, they'll have a distinct edge. Otherwise it'll come down to execution and alliance selection.
- A big crop of rookies has helped the Bayou regional grow in size, up 25% from last year. Those rookies will have a hard time keeping up with a couple of the top tier teams at the event, namely 624 and 1477. Cryptonite will be competing for the first time, while Texas Torque is trying to maintain the level of scoring excellence they demonstrated in Alamo and win their second event of the year.
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