| Joe Ross |
21-04-2012 00:20 |
Re: Newton 2012!
Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (with 9 matches per team, using the FIRST match generator).
I used each team's highest adjusted opr at any event to choose that team's "best event". Then, for that event, I used their unadjusted OPR for their contribution to a match. I also used the hybrid OPR, bridge OPR, teleop OPR to help calculate the standings. For the co-op bridge, I summed the co-op OPR for all 6 robots in the match and compared that to a threshold. When back-testing against regionals, if the threshold was chosen to be close to the number of actual co-ops at the regional, it had a relatively high correlation to the actual results on the co-op bridge. Almost all regionals had a correlation co-efficient of between 0.6 and 0.85. However, at the Michigan State Championship, the correlation coefficient was only 0.3. I believe this is because almost all of the robots there were able to balance so the balances that didn't happen weren't be cause of the robots, but because of luck. I used this method for calculating the co-ops, trying to get a co-op percent of around 60% (higher then most regionals, but lower then MSC). Overall, this isn't a very good way to do it, as it punishes teams at early regionals and regionals where teams did not co-op that much. However, it's included to help simulate the randomness of the rankings this year. All OPR data is from Ed Law's spreadsheet.
I calculated the results for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
Since the standings are much more complicated this year, and the co-op bridge is so important, and there isn't a very good way to simulate it, I looked at both the ranks, the number of qualification points, and the number of wins.
Everyone should attend Karthik's presentation at the championships where he covers "Why 'OPR' is a flawed indicator in Rebound Rumble".
The following were the values that were used in the simulation
Code:
Team OPR Teleop Hybrid Bridge Coop
469 42.33 23.31 8.33 10.69 0.98
1717 40.83 26.85 14.19 -0.60 0.64
548 32.99 20.58 7.62 4.78 0.87
1983 32.69 17.72 9.23 5.61 0.60
330 30.11 14.90 10.96 4.20 0.65
365 29.98 11.17 11.24 7.58 0.73
118 29.80 15.84 9.79 4.46 0.81
842 29.13 21.23 5.13 2.53 0.27
2122 27.59 12.00 7.82 4.21 0.60
111 27.42 15.30 8.80 3.67 0.28
1629 25.78 10.36 10.21 5.41 0.38
1023 25.02 14.22 8.51 3.52 0.50
488 24.31 13.29 7.61 3.62 0.39
222 22.71 9.72 6.58 6.36 0.29
2067 22.50 7.79 9.83 4.85 0.30
1662 22.10 13.83 3.32 4.76 0.51
1540 22.05 11.50 6.12 4.42 0.80
610 21.94 7.52 9.97 4.44 0.35
340 21.85 9.78 7.70 4.11 0.54
3018 21.56 10.78 6.67 4.26 0.56
175 21.08 4.69 6.78 9.66 0.67
107 18.38 6.30 7.95 4.14 0.31
68 17.72 5.86 5.72 6.14 0.32
3357 17.57 8.40 6.30 2.83 0.25
2834 17.54 13.67 4.62 -0.74 0.67
1241 17.37 7.95 6.19 4.04 0.33
4294 17.14 6.86 4.11 6.16 0.96
1635 16.78 -2.04 5.01 10.41 0.64
2468 16.31 9.44 0.41 6.98 0.19
79 15.54 1.95 6.17 8.06 0.75
3930 15.46 4.70 4.86 5.90 0.75
181 15.15 2.78 8.96 3.16 0.72
3245 15.01 4.31 5.78 4.69 0.46
3630 14.85 2.79 6.85 5.19 0.42
329 14.61 5.75 6.45 2.69 0.50
2471 14.45 5.50 5.73 3.26 0.47
840 14.29 2.80 7.98 4.18 0.32
639 14.11 0.59 6.74 6.77 0.73
11 14.00 2.54 9.89 1.58 0.78
191 13.96 7.11 3.60 3.54 0.26
3310 13.85 4.65 8.75 0.64 0.41
816 13.85 3.61 6.23 4.01 0.54
3937 13.69 2.05 7.28 1.26 0.27
2062 13.61 -0.05 9.89 3.77 0.34
2936 13.38 5.39 6.72 1.64 0.93
271 13.09 4.47 3.47 6.65 -0.40
3230 12.89 4.96 4.40 3.89 0.41
115 12.33 6.29 2.12 3.96 0.83
714 12.13 4.41 5.14 2.73 0.69
1640 12.08 2.64 7.60 1.84 0.39
1519 11.28 3.96 1.88 5.58 1.08
555 10.98 5.33 0.61 5.12 0.13
4089 10.96 2.73 3.82 4.73 0.42
2640 10.32 1.16 5.60 3.81 0.60
360 10.23 2.39 2.86 4.97 0.22
3990 10.22 2.71 4.59 2.92 -0.03
3504 9.87 5.49 0.85 3.97 -0.33
435 9.67 2.57 2.09 4.75 0.03
4183 9.16 4.03 5.86 -0.71 -0.08
1209 9.08 6.64 1.16 1.29 -0.17
2194 9.04 3.63 3.11 2.30 0.15
2705 8.79 2.86 6.85 -1.06 0.13
1772 8.68 1.47 3.44 3.67 0.14
2059 8.36 2.55 4.14 1.82 0.33
1622 8.06 9.01 0.51 -0.93 0.33
1506 8.05 3.30 0.35 3.84 0.19
4086 7.98 3.73 3.18 1.54 0.62
1219 6.86 -0.03 0.78 5.50 0.32
1937 6.80 1.96 2.80 1.99 0.15
4055 6.72 1.01 2.92 3.10 1.21
4021 6.48 3.14 2.88 0.42 -0.15
3627 6.36 1.02 2.77 2.44 0.27
378 6.04 -0.37 3.02 3.55 0.09
3512 5.93 1.37 3.11 1.64 0.09
41 5.84 2.37 2.68 1.01 0.21
1111 5.67 -0.83 1.99 3.80 0.16
86 5.61 1.73 2.45 1.58 0.49
4320 5.38 -1.06 4.53 1.90 0.16
375 5.30 4.29 1.10 -0.09 0.44
3255 5.30 2.61 -0.23 3.69 0.06
2460 5.23 4.59 1.74 -1.08 0.01
2200 5.18 1.73 0.53 2.73 0.13
4043 5.01 0.73 4.01 0.27 -0.08
4122 4.60 0.53 0.59 3.89 0.76
1126 4.43 3.46 2.27 -1.11 0.11
3566 4.38 2.43 -0.44 3.02 0.23
3083 4.05 4.84 -2.78 1.89 0.06
4188 3.90 1.62 -0.06 2.50 0.01
1178 3.72 1.77 4.53 -2.47 0.46
45 3.09 -1.05 3.62 0.27 0.87
4228 3.08 0.76 -2.44 4.75 0.14
1329 2.43 -0.15 -1.61 4.62 0.50
457 2.06 0.92 -1.50 3.31 -0.08
3176 1.68 3.78 0.01 -2.11 0.28
611 1.05 0.25 1.03 -0.21 -0.23
2902 0.76 -0.64 1.31 0.15 0.01
2574 0.67 1.00 0.94 -1.27 0.45
4379 0.35 0.99 -0.52 -0.65 0.18
2517 0.16 1.81 -0.76 -0.87 0.72
4262 -0.86 0.63 -1.04 -0.28 -0.22
Seeds:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev top8 #1
469 3.45 3 1 1 16 2.97 184 59
1717 5.63 4 1 1 32 6.04 161 39
548 6.88 5 2 1 32 5.81 141 21
1983 12.21 9.5 6 1 57 9.87 91 8
330 11.24 9 2 1 47 9.11 99 7
365 11.49 9 5 1 41 8.97 96 9
118 8.86 6 1 1 38 8.00 124 26
842 27.23 26 17 1 65 14.25 14 1
2122 16.83 14 4 1 56 11.91 61 1
111 28.39 25 22 2 86 16.67 16 0
1629 24.81 22 4 1 80 16.83 38 1
1023 20.50 18 6 1 73 14.27 50 2
488 26.44 24 18 1 84 16.06 20 2
222 33.86 32 35 3 87 18.97 14 0
2067 32.88 29 22 1 86 18.91 8 1
1662 27.83 26.5 28 2 71 16.15 17 0
1540 17.20 15 9 1 63 12.02 54 5
610 32.19 31 22 2 88 17.08 13 0
340 25.04 23 9 1 76 14.45 18 1
3018 24.41 21 20 1 82 15.23 31 1
175 21.45 18 16 1 72 14.27 40 2
107 40.54 40 43 9 90 17.44 0 0
68 41.16 39 31 2 88 20.34 9 0
3357 44.83 45 29 7 93 19.07 1 0
2834 27.62 25 16 2 78 16.73 18 0
1241 41.55 40 23 4 96 18.98 3 0
4294 21.78 19 5 1 70 13.73 36 5
1635 31.50 30.5 11 1 82 17.43 11 1
2468 55.86 56 51 11 97 19.45 0 0
79 28.86 27 35 1 82 16.01 15 2
3930 30.81 28.5 22 2 82 17.28 15 0
181 26.49 24 10 2 67 15.49 27 0
3245 38.29 37 24 5 90 18.32 8 0
3630 42.38 42 44 1 92 20.60 8 1
329 40.98 38 36 6 87 20.52 4 0
2471 39.42 39 39 4 91 18.15 4 0
840 47.82 49 54 4 100 19.65 5 0
639 30.25 28 35 1 83 17.55 15 1
11 23.80 21 13 1 75 15.65 29 1
191 52.16 51 56 5 96 18.76 2 0
3310 44.04 43.5 42 3 96 19.98 2 0
816 39.88 38 32 3 94 18.28 5 0
3937 48.48 47 47 6 93 19.94 1 0
2062 45.11 43 39 6 93 20.28 4 0
2936 24.76 22 27 2 71 14.52 25 0
271 80.84 83 100 37 100 14.95 0 0
3230 46.89 46 60 6 97 20.10 3 0
115 34.02 33 19 1 87 17.88 10 2
714 37.62 37 47 3 84 18.52 4 0
1640 48.53 45 45 9 92 20.10 0 0
1519 28.44 27 27 2 74 15.42 19 0
555 67.46 70 72 24 99 18.66 0 0
4089 49.80 48 56 4 96 20.38 1 0
2640 45.50 46 53 1 99 19.19 6 1
360 64.56 64 51 13 97 18.51 0 0
3990 70.39 72.5 92 23 100 17.96 0 0
3504 83.98 87.5 94 46 100 12.53 0 0
435 71.83 75 84 23 100 18.58 0 0
4183 74.92 78 92 24 100 17.17 0 0
1209 82.13 85 95 36 100 14.40 0 0
2194 66.98 68 67 8 99 19.16 1 0
2705 66.84 69 76 22 99 17.37 0 0
1772 67.83 67 65 13 100 17.54 0 0
2059 62.36 64 75 13 99 19.50 0 0
1622 62.99 63 49 21 99 17.77 0 0
1506 70.47 72 78 23 100 17.56 0 0
4086 51.05 50 49 2 89 17.74 2 0
1219 62.72 63 65 19 100 17.60 0 0
1937 70.90 72 91 19 99 16.83 0 0
4055 31.92 30 30 2 73 15.50 13 0
4021 82.28 86 96 41 100 14.69 0 0
3627 68.23 71 83 12 99 19.20 0 0
378 74.10 75 91 18 100 17.29 0 0
3512 74.79 78 93 3 100 17.58 1 0
41 70.64 72 61 16 98 17.03 0 0
1111 74.22 77 84 19 100 15.60 0 0
86 60.28 60 71 15 98 18.40 0 0
4320 71.93 75 84 10 99 18.80 0 0
375 63.06 65 69 8 98 17.81 1 0
3255 77.66 82 88 30 100 16.53 0 0
2460 80.06 84 89 28 100 14.88 0 0
2200 76.63 80 90 26 100 17.17 0 0
4043 79.60 82 95 40 100 14.49 0 0
4122 49.41 49.5 60 11 91 18.61 0 0
1126 76.62 79 70 24 100 16.09 0 0
3566 72.57 73 67 14 100 16.31 0 0
3083 83.62 86 91 36 100 12.92 0 0
4188 82.75 86 93 31 100 14.65 0 0
1178 60.87 63 67 10 96 18.02 0 0
45 43.10 43 38 7 90 16.03 1 0
4228 81.47 84 89 16 100 13.81 0 0
1329 67.77 70.5 73 7 100 19.24 1 0
457 87.52 93 98 40 100 12.75 0 0
3176 76.68 79 73 30 100 14.54 0 0
611 92.02 96 99 56 100 9.39 0 0
2902 85.55 90 98 31 100 13.31 0 0
2574 68.83 72 68 18 99 18.79 0 0
4379 84.23 88 90 30 100 12.60 0 0
2517 62.24 61.5 50 18 100 17.76 0 0
4262 93.36 97 100 54 100 8.56 0 0
QPs:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev Perfect
469 31.98 32 32 26 36 2.24 15
1717 29.86 30 28 22 36 2.99 6
548 29.93 30 30 22 36 2.69 1
1983 27.47 28 28 18 34 3.05 0
330 27.57 28 28 19 34 3.09 0
365 27.57 28 28 21 34 3.07 0
118 28.89 29 30 20 36 3.09 3
842 24.04 24 24 18 32 3.12 0
2122 26.31 26 26 18 34 3.37 0
111 23.18 24 24 12 31 3.62 0
1629 23.90 24 24 14 32 3.74 0
1023 25.09 26 26 16 32 3.51 0
488 23.77 24 22 12 34 3.65 0
222 22.37 22 22 12 32 4.01 0
2067 22.12 22 24 12 32 3.77 0
1662 24.30 24 24 15 32 3.63 0
1540 26.58 26 26 18 36 3.37 2
610 22.22 22 22 11 32 3.61 0
340 24.04 24 24 14 34 3.39 0
3018 24.55 24 26 14 32 3.58 0
175 25.23 26 26 16 34 3.45 0
107 20.68 20 20 11 28 3.39 0
68 21.03 21.5 22 12 32 4.16 0
3357 20.17 20 20 10 28 3.77 0
2834 24.03 24 26 14 34 3.77 0
1241 20.78 22 22 10 30 3.64 0
4294 25.68 26 26 16 35 3.50 0
1635 23.19 23.5 26 14 35 3.77 0
2468 18.98 18.5 18 10 28 3.73 0
79 23.57 24 22 14 34 3.54 0
3930 23.33 24 26 14 31 3.65 0
181 23.63 24 24 16 32 3.46 0
3245 21.45 22 22 11 30 3.67 0
3630 20.67 20 20 10 32 4.21 0
329 21.06 22 24 12 30 4.06 0
2471 21.21 21 22 10 30 3.59 0
840 19.33 19.5 18 5 30 3.93 0
639 23.19 24 24 14 34 3.71 0
11 24.13 24 26 14 32 3.52 0
191 19.06 19 18 10 30 3.70 0
3310 19.91 20 20 10 32 3.89 0
816 21.20 22 22 10 34 3.70 0
3937 19.29 20 20 8 29 3.79 0
2062 19.60 20 20 10 30 3.78 0
2936 24.34 24 24 16 34 3.35 0
271 12.80 13 14 4 22 3.78 0
3230 20.18 20 18 8 30 3.94 0
115 22.99 22.5 22 13 34 3.63 0
714 21.94 22 20 14 32 3.76 0
1640 19.15 20 20 10 28 3.83 0
1519 24.22 24 26 16 33 3.35 0
555 16.45 16 16 8 24 3.81 0
4089 19.46 20 20 8 30 3.95 0
2640 20.13 20 18 6 32 3.88 0
360 16.81 17 18 8 26 3.66 0
3990 15.06 15.5 16 4 26 3.80 0
3504 12.46 12 12 3 20 3.36 0
435 15.24 15 14 5 24 4.07 0
4183 13.92 14 14 4 24 3.79 0
1209 12.94 12 14 4 22 3.50 0
2194 16.09 16 18 6 30 4.00 0
2705 15.67 16 16 7 24 3.44 0
1772 15.95 16 18 6 26 3.78 0
2059 17.06 17 18 6 26 3.85 0
1622 17.34 18 18 8 26 3.54 0
1506 15.95 16 16 6 26 3.73 0
4086 19.53 20 20 11 32 3.40 0
1219 17.39 18 18 6 25 3.53 0
1937 15.40 16 16 8 26 3.54 0
4055 23.40 24 24 16 32 3.26 0
4021 12.42 12 12 4 21 3.69 0
3627 15.87 16 16 5 28 4.01 0
378 14.47 14 14 4 26 3.93 0
3512 14.35 14 14 6 31 3.99 0
41 15.40 16 16 8 26 3.65 0
1111 14.85 14 14 6 26 3.41 0
86 17.75 18 18 8 28 3.60 0
4320 14.71 14 16 6 28 4.02 0
375 17.44 18 16 8 30 3.49 0
3255 14.20 14 12 6 23 3.84 0
2460 13.31 14 16 4 24 3.68 0
2200 14.29 14 16 4 24 3.90 0
4043 13.16 13 12 4 21 3.38 0
4122 20.05 20 18 12 28 3.36 0
1126 14.14 14 14 4 24 3.67 0
3566 15.53 16 16 6 26 3.47 0
3083 13.05 14 14 0 22 3.54 0
4188 12.98 12.5 12 5 23 3.62 0
1178 17.18 17.5 18 8 28 3.58 0
45 20.84 20.5 22 12 28 2.98 0
4228 13.68 14 14 4 26 3.40 0
1329 16.77 16 16 8 29 3.75 0
457 11.60 12 10 4 22 3.66 0
3176 14.70 14 14 6 24 3.27 0
611 9.57 10 10 0 18 3.55 0
2902 11.99 12 10 2 24 3.53 0
2574 16.16 16 16 8 26 3.84 0
4379 12.86 12 12 6 24 3.31 0
2517 17.82 18 18 8 26 3.44 0
4262 9.45 10 8 2 19 3.40 0
Wins:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev Perfect
469 8.32 8 9 6 9 0.73 92
1717 8.33 8 9 5 9 0.76 97
548 7.67 8 8 5 9 0.94 38
1983 7.55 8 8 4 9 1.10 45
330 7.28 7 8 4 9 1.22 35
365 7.12 7 7 3 9 1.16 19
118 7.26 7 8 4 9 1.23 32
842 7.11 7 7 4 9 1.15 22
2122 6.81 7 7 3 9 1.25 15
111 6.82 7 8 3 9 1.25 11
1629 6.56 7 7 3 9 1.37 13
1023 6.59 7 7 3 9 1.40 15
488 6.44 7 7 2 9 1.42 11
222 6.31 6 7 3 9 1.38 11
2067 6.12 6 6 2 9 1.43 6
1662 6.15 6 6 2 9 1.40 6
1540 6.02 6 6 2 9 1.49 11
610 6.06 6 6 0 9 1.48 3
340 6.06 6 6 3 9 1.32 3
3018 6.03 6 6 2 9 1.32 3
175 5.91 6 6 2 9 1.27 2
107 5.36 5 5 1 9 1.38 1
68 5.41 5 5 2 9 1.54 1
3357 5.25 5 5 1 9 1.47 2
2834 5.39 6 6 2 9 1.45 4
1241 5.22 5 6 1 8 1.44 0
4294 5.13 5 6 2 8 1.47 0
1635 5.03 5 5 1 9 1.48 1
2468 4.95 5 5 1 9 1.57 1
79 4.76 5 4 1 8 1.35 0
3930 4.67 5 5 1 9 1.56 1
181 4.87 5 5 2 8 1.35 0
3245 4.89 5 5 1 9 1.42 1
3630 4.66 5 5 1 9 1.58 3
329 4.69 5 5 0 8 1.62 0
2471 4.74 5 5 1 8 1.40 0
840 4.52 4 4 0 9 1.54 1
639 4.81 5 5 1 8 1.53 0
11 4.90 5 5 1 8 1.46 0
191 4.75 5 5 1 8 1.46 0
3310 4.54 4 4 0 8 1.52 0
816 4.51 4 4 1 9 1.58 2
3937 4.63 5 5 1 9 1.51 2
2062 4.57 5 5 1 8 1.55 0
2936 4.55 5 4 1 9 1.45 1
271 4.59 5 4 0 8 1.56 0
3230 4.52 4 4 0 8 1.58 0
115 4.26 4 3 0 9 1.56 1
714 4.21 4 4 0 9 1.51 1
1640 4.27 4 4 0 9 1.49 1
1519 4.03 4 4 1 8 1.43 0
555 4.11 4 4 0 8 1.55 0
4089 4.22 4 4 0 8 1.57 0
2640 3.82 4 4 0 8 1.51 0
360 3.88 4 3 1 7 1.36 0
3990 4.10 4 4 1 8 1.51 0
3504 4.01 4 4 0 9 1.45 1
435 3.74 4 3 0 8 1.54 0
4183 3.77 4 3 0 8 1.52 0
1209 3.76 4 4 1 7 1.35 0
2194 3.79 4 4 0 8 1.53 0
2705 3.69 4 4 0 8 1.38 0
1772 3.78 4 4 0 7 1.36 0
2059 3.52 4 4 0 8 1.52 0
1622 3.64 4 4 0 9 1.40 1
1506 3.55 3.5 3 1 8 1.38 0
4086 3.49 3 3 0 7 1.33 0
1219 3.50 3 3 0 7 1.44 0
1937 3.31 3 3 0 8 1.44 0
4055 3.29 3 4 0 7 1.49 0
4021 3.23 3 3 0 7 1.44 0
3627 3.17 3 2 0 7 1.42 0
378 3.23 3 3 0 6 1.42 0
3512 3.30 3 3 0 8 1.50 0
41 3.27 3 3 1 7 1.30 0
1111 3.16 3 3 0 7 1.29 0
86 3.19 3 3 0 6 1.29 0
4320 3.05 3 4 0 8 1.51 0
375 3.15 3 3 0 7 1.49 0
3255 3.18 3 3 0 7 1.33 0
2460 3.04 3 3 0 6 1.38 0
2200 3.11 3 3 0 6 1.42 0
4043 3.28 3 3 0 6 1.37 0
4122 3.09 3 3 0 6 1.30 0
1126 3.00 3 3 0 8 1.35 0
3566 2.95 3 2 0 7 1.41 0
3083 2.80 3 4 0 6 1.39 0
4188 2.87 3 3 0 7 1.43 0
1178 3.02 3 3 0 8 1.41 0
45 2.94 3 2 0 6 1.34 0
4228 2.74 3 3 0 8 1.34 0
1329 2.58 3 3 0 7 1.42 0
457 2.59 3 3 0 6 1.32 0
3176 2.51 2 2 0 5 1.13 0
611 2.22 2 2 0 7 1.35 0
2902 2.45 2 2 0 6 1.33 0
2574 2.45 2 3 0 6 1.36 0
4379 2.17 2 2 0 6 1.18 0
2517 2.23 2 2 0 5 1.16 0
4262 2.13 2 2 0 6 1.17 0
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