| Joe Ross |
20-04-2012 21:38 |
Re: Archimedes 2012!
Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (with 9 matches per team, using the FIRST match generator).
I used each team's highest adjusted opr at any event to choose that team's "best event". Then, for that event, I used their unadjusted OPR for their contribution to a match. I also used the hybrid OPR, bridge OPR, teleop OPR to help calculate the standings. For the co-op bridge, I summed the co-op OPR for all 6 robots in the match and compared that to a threshold. When back-testing against regionals, if the threshold was chosen to be close to the number of actual co-ops at the regional, it had a relatively high correlation to the actual results on the co-op bridge. Almost all regionals had a correlation co-efficient of between 0.6 and 0.85. However, at the Michigan State Championship, the correlation coefficient was only 0.3. I believe this is because almost all of the robots there were able to balance so the balances that didn't happen weren't be cause of the robots, but because of luck. I used this method for calculating the co-ops, trying to get a co-op percent of around 60% (higher then most regionals, but lower then MSC). Overall, this isn't a very good way to do it, as it punishes teams at early regionals and regionals where teams did not co-op that much. However, it's included to help simulate the randomness of the rankings this year. All OPR data is from Ed Law's spreadsheet.
I calculated the results for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
Since the standings are much more complicated this year, and the co-op bridge is so important, and there isn't a very good way to simulate it, I looked at both the ranks, the number of qualification points, and the number of wins.
Everyone should attend Karthik's presentation at the championships where he covers "Why 'OPR' is a flawed indicator in Rebound Rumble".
The following were the values that were used in the simulation
Code:
Team OPR Teleop Hybrid Bridge Coop
67 36.70 19.41 11.17 6.12 1.06
2056 36.61 23.24 11.81 1.63 0.30
1114 35.10 18.64 15.19 0.91 0.78
359 30.79 19.15 9.14 2.79 1.27
1218 30.55 21.75 7.82 1.88 1.13
973 28.16 13.06 4.97 3.05 0.23
2590 26.84 13.99 6.09 6.76 0.16
1676 25.02 14.09 8.96 1.86 0.89
2826 24.35 12.57 8.34 3.44 0.92
1796 23.67 11.61 9.58 2.57 0.50
2415 23.42 14.01 4.60 5.53 0.27
1311 23.15 11.10 10.38 1.48 0.18
716 22.90 10.60 5.06 7.19 0.03
2996 22.70 9.88 7.82 5.09 0.56
245 22.58 8.63 7.30 6.65 0.44
195 21.68 12.79 4.65 4.05 1.06
2614 21.39 8.63 6.61 6.16 0.28
2046 21.27 12.87 5.02 3.49 0.42
75 20.94 8.12 9.43 3.40 0.53
3968 20.92 10.65 6.60 3.54 0.69
1592 20.85 13.16 6.06 1.52 0.02
1816 19.58 4.76 10.48 4.26 -0.35
2557 19.35 5.98 3.75 9.63 0.87
272 18.51 7.25 7.45 3.81 0.46
126 17.73 9.56 5.47 3.31 0.78
3015 17.69 4.48 7.57 5.53 0.08
1868 17.64 9.20 5.40 3.90 0.47
1403 17.09 7.24 8.30 1.73 0.96
2603 16.54 4.59 7.68 4.27 -0.16
3476 16.42 8.29 5.68 2.44 -0.06
1902 15.93 3.58 4.77 7.38 0.60
1756 15.50 7.75 3.88 3.87 0.49
234 15.05 7.80 3.29 4.12 -0.08
2898 14.36 4.61 7.87 2.18 0.51
1987 14.35 4.26 8.05 1.99 0.07
2512 14.33 9.60 1.28 3.67 -0.14
781 14.13 6.09 0.13 7.71 0.19
247 13.80 2.77 6.85 3.74 0.26
3008 13.67 6.53 5.90 1.33 -0.16
4334 13.50 4.46 4.99 4.05 0.78
369 13.23 2.75 7.60 2.84 0.69
3997 13.20 6.02 4.42 2.58 0.28
1261 12.81 5.75 3.77 3.06 0.23
4256 12.77 3.54 5.38 3.92 0.25
1736 12.50 4.00 3.60 4.90 0.17
1647 12.45 4.72 4.60 3.12 -0.14
839 12.25 5.67 0.99 5.30 0.30
3747 11.50 3.70 3.31 4.49 0.26
2949 10.85 1.00 6.97 3.15 0.93
1504 10.78 6.32 5.75 -1.28 0.45
3947 10.64 5.63 2.94 2.07 0.66
587 10.52 2.11 3.88 4.84 0.45
100 10.00 2.69 4.46 0.73 0.01
2851 9.99 4.22 1.28 4.49 0.88
2974 8.57 3.22 4.93 0.15 0.11
1458 8.56 1.41 4.64 2.99 -0.03
2022 8.48 4.07 1.39 2.93 0.61
3481 8.48 5.29 0.86 2.44 0.05
4143 8.04 0.63 4.91 2.50 0.06
20 7.93 3.95 0.79 2.96 0.01
3335 7.91 0.60 4.87 2.64 -0.10
128 7.85 1.78 3.97 2.11 0.46
4356 7.55 0.05 0.40 6.88 -0.09
2395 7.50 6.48 1.23 -0.21 -0.32
2638 7.37 5.69 1.95 -1.30 0.50
1 7.36 2.70 1.45 3.20 -0.04
4001 7.12 1.95 0.73 4.66 0.51
1306 7.02 2.23 6.18 -1.39 0.25
3456 6.85 1.98 0.39 4.63 0.20
190 6.62 1.99 5.48 -1.09 -0.04
1875 6.40 4.25 1.20 1.16 -0.16
1014 6.22 0.28 5.60 0.68 0.27
1642 6.15 0.39 0.15 5.30 0.48
144 5.98 3.99 3.94 -2.06 -0.26
1710 5.60 1.20 4.92 -0.56 -0.17
2403 5.59 2.84 0.98 2.57 0.14
236 4.94 3.61 4.49 -2.85 0.25
2410 4.84 0.70 3.26 0.89 -0.09
2815 4.54 4.93 1.65 -2.03 0.21
3410 4.49 0.63 1.00 2.42 -0.07
246 4.47 1.12 0.12 3.24 0.37
4300 4.15 3.80 1.51 -0.84 0.02
2648 4.07 4.21 -2.41 2.27 0.50
1058 3.91 -0.23 0.46 0.86 0.05
3081 3.91 -0.93 2.48 2.18 -0.22
3158 3.88 0.91 1.58 1.85 0.05
1018 3.79 1.09 4.06 -1.36 -0.08
2809 3.68 4.38 -0.21 -1.53 0.13
692 2.70 2.60 -0.82 0.62 0.43
2085 2.70 1.82 0.23 0.41 0.37
4403 1.92 1.16 0.52 0.39 0.50
956 1.76 2.06 1.81 -2.10 0.05
3999 1.44 -0.82 2.77 -2.06 0.16
4218 1.35 -0.11 0.24 1.30 0.31
4206 0.44 1.16 -1.98 1.56 0.21
4082 0.22 0.61 0.46 -0.26 0.03
3585 0.07 -0.25 -0.65 1.04 -0.12
3128 -0.78 -1.40 0.03 0.17 -0.13
3927 -1.75 -0.85 0.11 -1.16 0.19
3634 -5.53 0.03 -3.29 -2.67 0.31
Seeds:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev top8 #1
67 3.25 3 1 1 15 2.61 191 64
2056 12.67 11 8 1 60 8.81 73 5
1114 5.65 4 1 1 38 5.57 159 39
359 4.35 3 2 1 32 4.04 179 36
1218 5.11 4 3 1 45 4.86 173 28
973 25.77 22.5 19 4 69 14.09 9 0
2590 26.79 24 17 5 87 13.85 7 0
1676 10.63 9 6 1 43 7.86 94 2
2826 10.01 8 4 1 41 7.83 111 7
1796 18.33 16 9 1 84 13.37 48 2
2415 29.29 27.5 25 5 77 15.24 7 0
1311 31.77 29 21 3 80 15.84 6 0
716 39.48 36 35 7 89 17.80 2 0
2996 19.09 17 13 1 66 12.57 40 3
245 23.45 21 11 1 70 14.37 26 1
195 12.09 10 7 1 40 8.21 87 5
2614 31.06 28 25 3 88 17.06 13 0
2046 27.68 25 16 4 78 15.83 16 0
75 22.23 19.5 15 2 79 13.28 28 0
3968 17.81 14.5 8 1 70 12.74 53 1
1592 43.59 40 40 8 99 20.17 1 0
1816 57.86 59 52 16 99 18.62 0 0
2557 19.00 15.5 11 1 68 12.74 37 1
272 26.66 24 18 2 74 14.76 15 0
126 19.67 17 17 1 56 12.21 40 2
3015 42.26 39 23 7 92 19.11 1 0
1868 30.48 28 17 1 81 16.74 16 1
1403 16.92 14 8 1 54 11.78 58 2
2603 54.75 53 53 12 97 20.00 0 0
3476 55.01 52.5 40 8 100 20.64 1 0
1902 29.31 27 32 1 83 15.67 8 1
1756 32.89 29 26 2 93 18.67 7 0
234 58.91 57.5 45 15 99 20.01 0 0
2898 30.49 29 32 2 99 17.53 12 0
1987 49.67 47 43 13 99 21.47 0 0
2512 66.46 67 78 16 100 18.89 0 0
781 53.27 52 60 8 100 21.76 1 0
247 46.12 45 42 4 90 20.38 3 0
3008 61.56 62 67 16 99 20.62 0 0
4334 26.15 25 21 2 92 13.55 11 0
369 27.55 24 12 2 75 15.92 12 0
3997 45.82 45 34 7 92 19.16 2 0
1261 49.97 49 49 11 98 18.81 0 0
4256 45.73 44 43 8 96 18.44 1 0
1736 53.71 54.5 47 5 98 20.70 1 0
1647 69.82 75 75 15 100 19.45 0 0
839 51.87 51 49 12 99 19.69 0 0
3747 51.74 52 52 13 93 19.77 0 0
2949 24.19 20 19 2 80 15.23 23 0
1504 43.87 41 47 10 93 19.67 0 0
3947 38.57 36 26 2 88 18.14 6 0
587 43.49 43 58 6 90 18.80 3 0
100 61.46 64 73 23 99 20.39 0 0
2851 30.72 28 23 4 90 17.51 12 0
2974 57.21 56 56 12 100 21.18 0 0
1458 70.04 72 87 21 100 18.86 0 0
2022 45.32 44 51 6 95 20.44 4 0
3481 69.72 72.5 88 10 100 19.31 0 0
4143 68.10 69.5 96 17 100 19.44 0 0
20 70.76 71.5 65 25 100 18.84 0 0
3335 68.97 68 68 20 100 19.37 0 0
128 50.23 50 60 8 95 20.32 1 0
4356 77.40 79 91 22 100 16.35 0 0
2395 84.44 89 96 32 100 14.46 0 0
2638 49.05 50 54 9 94 19.54 0 0
1 72.86 77 91 20 100 18.66 0 0
4001 49.13 46 36 12 94 19.64 0 0
1306 58.21 60 69 11 95 19.78 0 0
3456 61.68 61 48 11 99 20.42 0 0
190 70.82 74.5 90 18 100 20.86 0 0
1875 80.12 85 92 14 100 16.58 0 0
1014 58.26 57 54 12 98 20.60 0 0
1642 57.33 59 73 13 96 19.62 0 0
144 80.70 85 95 18 100 17.48 0 0
1710 77.36 81.5 94 30 100 17.43 0 0
2403 68.09 70 60 9 100 18.46 0 0
236 63.07 64 88 14 100 20.12 0 0
2410 77.15 80.5 90 7 100 17.83 1 0
2815 65.93 67 85 9 100 19.91 0 0
3410 80.54 83 99 31 100 15.26 0 0
246 62.25 62 62 15 98 19.33 0 0
4300 75.45 79 91 9 100 18.51 0 0
2648 59.16 60 53 16 99 21.54 0 0
1058 79.60 84 83 28 100 16.46 0 0
3081 82.69 86 100 23 100 15.06 0 0
3158 74.78 78.5 84 21 100 18.77 0 0
1018 77.94 79.5 78 25 100 15.24 0 0
2809 71.96 74 98 13 100 19.62 0 0
692 60.30 62.5 49 6 100 21.63 1 0
2085 62.93 63 63 17 98 20.44 0 0
4403 61.50 62 82 13 99 19.08 0 0
956 75.00 80 81 15 100 17.89 0 0
3999 74.19 77 88 17 100 17.67 0 0
4218 68.16 70 76 9 98 18.69 0 0
4206 75.18 77 69 38 100 16.48 0 0
4082 84.92 90 99 37 100 14.01 0 0
3585 87.01 92 100 26 100 14.52 0 0
3128 87.76 93 100 42 100 12.39 0 0
3927 80.52 84 97 20 100 16.19 0 0
3634 80.42 83.5 94 23 100 15.48 0 0
QPs:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev Perfect
67 32.28 32 34 26 36 2.26 21
2056 27.14 28 28 18 36 3.02 1
1114 30.37 30 30 20 36 2.98 9
359 32.00 32 34 23 36 2.48 15
1218 31.61 32 32 20 36 2.61 11
973 24.26 24 26 16 32 3.25 0
2590 23.76 24 24 12 32 3.29 0
1676 28.35 28 28 20 34 3.03 0
2826 28.84 29.5 30 20 36 3.20 3
1796 25.73 26 28 13 36 3.69 1
2415 23.40 24 22 14 32 3.34 0
1311 22.18 22 22 14 32 3.24 0
716 21.28 22 22 12 30 3.47 0
2996 25.67 26 24 16 36 3.75 1
245 24.58 24 24 14 33 3.57 0
195 28.61 28 30 22 36 3.19 3
2614 22.74 23 24 12 31 3.68 0
2046 23.92 24 26 14 32 3.70 0
75 24.59 24 26 14 34 3.33 0
3968 26.19 26 28 16 34 3.53 0
1592 20.15 20 20 7 30 3.94 0
1816 17.29 18 18 8 26 3.31 0
2557 26.38 26 26 16 36 3.39 1
272 23.77 24 26 14 32 3.36 0
126 26.02 26 26 18 34 3.50 0
3015 20.20 20 22 10 28 3.53 0
1868 23.42 24 24 14 34 3.84 0
1403 26.42 26 26 18 34 3.58 0
2603 17.87 18 18 8 26 3.51 0
3476 17.99 18 20 6 30 3.97 0
1902 23.53 24 24 14 34 3.57 0
1756 22.93 24 24 10 34 4.07 0
234 17.77 18 20 6 27 3.74 0
2898 22.68 22 22 6 33 3.94 0
1987 18.84 19.5 20 8 27 3.95 0
2512 16.61 16 16 7 25 3.68 0
781 19.29 19 18 7 30 4.05 0
247 19.63 20 22 11 30 3.90 0
3008 16.71 17 16 6 26 3.92 0
4334 24.15 24 22 12 33 3.15 0
369 23.45 24 24 14 32 3.64 0
3997 20.14 20 18 12 30 3.64 0
1261 19.34 20 18 8 28 3.63 0
4256 19.96 20 18 10 30 3.47 0
1736 18.64 18 18 8 31 4.00 0
1647 15.33 15 14 6 26 3.78 0
839 19.48 20 20 10 28 3.58 0
3747 19.15 20 20 10 28 3.71 0
2949 24.49 24 24 14 34 3.67 0
1504 20.18 20 20 10 28 3.67 0
3947 21.84 22 20 12 34 3.76 0
587 20.65 20 20 11 30 3.66 0
100 17.02 16 16 8 24 3.77 0
2851 23.77 24 24 12 32 3.68 0
2974 17.66 18 18 6 26 4.04 0
1458 15.18 15 14 6 24 3.72 0
2022 20.71 20 22 12 32 3.84 0
3481 16.02 16 16 6 27 3.81 0
4143 15.58 16 16 4 26 3.94 0
20 15.78 16 16 6 24 3.73 0
3335 15.37 16 18 6 24 3.92 0
128 19.37 20 20 10 29 3.84 0
4356 14.48 14 16 4 24 3.68 0
2395 12.57 12 12 2 23 3.64 0
2638 19.85 20 18 10 29 3.64 0
1 15.25 15 14 4 26 3.97 0
4001 19.90 20 22 10 28 3.60 0
1306 17.54 17 16 9 28 3.71 0
3456 17.71 18 18 9 28 3.82 0
190 15.05 14 14 6 26 4.15 0
1875 13.72 14 14 6 25 3.66 0
1014 17.45 18 18 8 28 3.80 0
1642 18.60 18 18 11 28 3.44 0
144 12.87 12.5 14 1 26 4.05 0
1710 13.58 14 12 2 22 3.76 0
2403 16.36 16 16 8 30 3.55 0
236 16.77 16 16 6 26 3.76 0
2410 14.01 14 14 4 30 3.92 0
2815 16.59 16 18 8 27 3.89 0
3410 13.61 14 14 4 24 3.57 0
246 17.64 18 18 10 26 3.62 0
4300 14.50 14 12 5 32 4.04 0
2648 18.43 18 18 8 28 3.84 0
1058 14.11 14 14 6 24 3.50 0
3081 12.79 13 14 1 24 3.76 0
3158 14.64 14 14 6 24 3.93 0
1018 13.78 14 14 5 24 3.40 0
2809 15.53 16 16 6 26 4.10 0
692 18.19 18 16 8 32 4.09 0
2085 17.46 17 16 8 26 3.73 0
4403 17.68 18 18 8 28 3.53 0
956 14.75 14 14 6 26 3.64 0
3999 14.65 14 14 6 26 3.73 0
4218 16.53 16 18 10 29 3.43 0
4206 15.28 16 16 8 22 3.37 0
4082 12.65 12 12 2 23 3.61 0
3585 12.10 12 12 2 24 3.82 0
3128 11.71 12 12 4 22 3.48 0
3927 13.81 14 14 4 26 3.60 0
3634 14.14 14 14 6 24 3.51 0
Wins:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev Perfect
67 8.03 8 8 5 9 0.89 68
2056 8.09 8 8 5 9 0.94 78
1114 7.85 8 8 4 9 1.04 63
359 7.41 8 8 4 9 1.13 32
1218 7.51 8 8 4 9 1.12 36
973 7.02 7 7 3 9 1.19 20
2590 6.91 7 7 2 9 1.29 21
1676 6.54 6.5 6 3 9 1.29 13
2826 6.48 6.5 6 3 9 1.30 10
1796 6.46 7 7 3 9 1.31 10
2415 6.29 6 6 2 9 1.39 5
1311 6.26 6 6 3 9 1.30 4
716 6.27 6 7 2 9 1.35 6
2996 6.38 6 6 3 9 1.31 7
245 6.33 6 6 3 9 1.35 4
195 6.10 6 7 3 9 1.37 6
2614 5.89 6 6 2 9 1.33 2
2046 5.92 6 6 1 9 1.57 7
75 5.86 6 6 3 9 1.29 2
3968 6.03 6 6 2 9 1.39 4
1592 5.96 6 7 1 9 1.53 4
1816 5.87 6 6 2 9 1.30 4
2557 5.58 6 5 2 9 1.40 3
272 5.68 6 6 2 9 1.41 1
126 5.60 6 6 2 9 1.48 2
3015 5.69 6 6 2 9 1.42 1
1868 5.63 6 6 2 9 1.41 4
1403 5.29 5 6 1 9 1.58 1
2603 5.38 5 5 2 9 1.40 3
3476 5.08 5 5 1 8 1.52 0
1902 5.04 5 5 1 9 1.43 2
1756 5.27 5 6 2 9 1.51 4
234 4.93 5 4 1 8 1.48 0
2898 4.99 5 5 1 9 1.50 2
1987 4.77 5 4 1 9 1.53 1
2512 4.79 5 4 2 8 1.45 0
781 4.69 5 4 1 9 1.49 1
247 4.69 5 5 1 9 1.54 1
3008 4.84 5 5 1 8 1.49 0
4334 4.68 5 5 0 8 1.43 0
369 4.64 5 5 1 8 1.55 0
3997 4.67 5 5 1 8 1.40 0
1261 4.50 4 4 1 9 1.48 1
4256 4.63 5 4 0 8 1.46 0
1736 4.42 4 5 1 9 1.55 1
1647 4.23 4 4 0 9 1.44 2
839 4.40 5 5 1 8 1.43 0
3747 4.19 4 4 0 8 1.50 0
2949 4.34 4 5 0 9 1.56 1
1504 3.98 4 4 1 7 1.45 0
3947 4.10 4 4 1 8 1.51 0
587 4.16 4 4 0 8 1.56 0
100 4.26 4 5 0 8 1.45 0
2851 4.14 4 5 1 8 1.59 0
2974 4.09 4 4 1 8 1.54 0
1458 3.73 4 4 0 7 1.31 0
2022 3.55 3 3 0 8 1.50 0
3481 3.68 4 4 1 8 1.38 0
4143 3.53 4 4 0 8 1.59 0
20 3.76 4 4 0 8 1.63 0
3335 3.81 4 4 0 8 1.54 0
128 3.63 4 4 0 8 1.44 0
4356 3.36 3 3 0 8 1.47 0
2395 3.51 3 3 0 8 1.40 0
2638 3.64 4 4 0 7 1.53 0
1 3.48 4 4 0 7 1.49 0
4001 3.56 4 3 1 7 1.46 0
1306 3.47 3 3 0 8 1.46 0
3456 3.69 4 4 0 7 1.49 0
190 3.35 3 3 0 8 1.48 0
1875 3.39 3 3 0 8 1.49 0
1014 3.29 3 3 0 7 1.44 0
1642 3.18 3 3 0 7 1.37 0
144 3.25 3 3 0 8 1.56 0
1710 3.34 3 3 0 7 1.40 0
2403 3.30 3 3 0 8 1.31 0
236 3.13 3 4 0 8 1.43 0
2410 3.20 3 3 0 8 1.34 0
2815 3.11 3 2 0 7 1.44 0
3410 2.95 3 3 0 7 1.44 0
246 3.07 3 3 0 7 1.34 0
4300 2.95 3 3 0 8 1.38 0
2648 3.02 3 3 0 8 1.50 0
1058 2.73 3 3 0 6 1.38 0
3081 3.13 3 4 0 7 1.39 0
3158 2.97 3 3 0 7 1.51 0
1018 3.05 3 3 0 7 1.33 0
2809 3.06 3 3 0 7 1.35 0
692 3.00 3 2 0 8 1.58 0
2085 2.89 3 2 0 7 1.28 0
4403 2.53 2 2 0 6 1.31 0
956 2.75 3 3 0 7 1.30 0
3999 2.55 2 2 0 6 1.33 0
4218 2.67 3 2 0 6 1.38 0
4206 2.50 2 2 0 6 1.31 0
4082 2.22 2 2 0 6 1.22 0
3585 2.35 2 2 0 6 1.29 0
3128 2.16 2 2 0 5 1.32 0
3927 1.98 2 2 0 5 1.21 0
3634 1.62 2 1 0 4 1.14 0
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