| Joe Ross |
21-04-2012 00:13 |
Re: Galileo 2012!
Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (with 9 matches per team, using the FIRST match generator).
I used each team's highest adjusted opr at any event to choose that team's "best event". Then, for that event, I used their unadjusted OPR for their contribution to a match. I also used the hybrid OPR, bridge OPR, teleop OPR to help calculate the standings. For the co-op bridge, I summed the co-op OPR for all 6 robots in the match and compared that to a threshold. When back-testing against regionals, if the threshold was chosen to be close to the number of actual co-ops at the regional, it had a relatively high correlation to the actual results on the co-op bridge. Almost all regionals had a correlation co-efficient of between 0.6 and 0.85. However, at the Michigan State Championship, the correlation coefficient was only 0.3. I believe this is because almost all of the robots there were able to balance so the balances that didn't happen weren't be cause of the robots, but because of luck. I used this method for calculating the co-ops, trying to get a co-op percent of around 60% (higher then most regionals, but lower then MSC). Overall, this isn't a very good way to do it, as it punishes teams at early regionals and regionals where teams did not co-op that much. However, it's included to help simulate the randomness of the rankings this year. All OPR data is from Ed Law's spreadsheet.
I calculated the results for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
Since the standings are much more complicated this year, and the co-op bridge is so important, and there isn't a very good way to simulate it, I looked at both the ranks, the number of qualification points, and the number of wins.
Everyone should attend Karthik's presentation at the championships where he covers "Why 'OPR' is a flawed indicator in Rebound Rumble".
The following were the values that were used in the simulation
Code:
Team OPR Teleop Hybrid Bridge Coop
25 30.27 16.65 7.39 6.22 0.75
180 29.14 11.70 10.57 7.34 0.88
399 28.33 15.30 3.78 8.74 0.51
2169 28.04 22.38 7.78 -2.13 0.41
16 27.43 13.09 11.47 2.94 0.84
33 26.41 18.94 4.54 2.92 0.63
2054 24.54 9.78 6.76 8.01 0.66
48 24.38 8.49 10.03 5.86 0.53
3322 24.33 12.87 7.29 4.17 0.91
103 23.48 13.07 7.00 3.36 0.56
1918 22.90 12.33 3.75 6.82 0.57
148 21.97 13.73 4.61 2.11 0.71
1323 21.52 13.61 6.42 2.01 0.77
801 20.65 14.19 4.59 2.33 0.63
1671 20.45 11.19 10.25 0.72 0.15
2337 20.19 5.89 9.74 4.56 0.56
8 19.68 6.56 4.19 8.66 0.60
573 19.58 5.50 7.81 6.27 0.61
1538 19.33 7.23 6.77 5.17 0.71
1714 19.20 12.27 5.99 0.95 1.38
2928 18.65 11.68 3.20 3.49 0.72
1718 18.23 9.75 8.23 0.28 1.48
744 18.20 10.62 7.27 0.49 0.34
1208 18.15 10.66 5.73 1.97 0.79
772 18.15 12.26 6.86 -1.03 0.53
358 17.91 5.18 4.10 8.56 0.56
1574 17.76 6.57 7.80 3.58 0.25
342 17.71 6.39 7.96 3.63 -0.04
868 16.46 10.69 5.85 -0.08 0.32
2016 16.35 6.86 6.06 3.42 0.62
1350 16.20 6.72 3.92 5.94 0.19
2377 16.20 6.51 4.75 5.36 0.25
1732 15.65 5.57 4.54 5.54 1.15
125 15.28 8.63 5.62 1.37 0.55
1425 15.10 7.05 5.54 2.50 0.48
527 14.91 1.93 6.50 6.30 0.48
3196 14.55 6.04 7.57 0.99 0.35
3103 14.31 1.41 7.99 5.29 -0.11
231 14.14 6.17 0.87 7.34 0.47
1747 14.01 3.57 5.53 4.91 0.07
2486 13.87 6.53 4.66 2.99 0.31
815 13.62 4.92 4.67 4.05 0.83
2090 13.48 5.09 6.60 1.87 0.04
533 13.29 6.67 3.83 2.75 0.13
263 13.08 5.97 7.24 -0.13 0.42
2220 12.93 1.67 6.29 5.29 0.81
269 12.79 5.09 5.70 1.99 0.10
2642 12.11 3.78 5.71 2.58 0.29
2439 11.91 3.09 4.36 4.41 0.97
237 11.90 4.87 5.70 1.56 0.71
1108 11.85 3.18 6.82 2.09 0.41
2341 11.54 4.62 1.08 5.97 -0.14
4159 10.67 1.38 5.00 4.75 0.02
4146 10.39 3.44 4.63 3.09 -0.23
4057 10.31 2.31 -2.33 10.33 -0.08
281 9.93 1.93 5.31 2.88 -0.04
69 9.71 4.54 -1.04 5.85 -0.05
1038 8.68 3.09 1.46 3.83 0.25
1011 8.46 6.59 2.80 -0.51 0.33
3453 8.28 2.97 3.88 2.74 -0.12
4099 8.22 1.90 1.58 5.17 -0.14
1305 7.96 0.64 4.37 3.94 0.47
4083 7.91 1.78 0.95 5.54 0.50
3574 7.69 0.22 4.18 2.69 0.73
492 7.47 0.69 4.51 2.30 -0.12
384 7.26 3.04 5.33 -0.70 0.40
3931 6.89 0.84 5.16 0.88 0.08
766 6.80 0.90 1.45 3.69 0.05
1515 6.41 1.38 1.61 3.48 0.25
4031 5.91 1.97 0.41 3.53 -0.20
870 5.18 -2.07 -1.63 9.35 0.35
168 5.07 2.88 0.76 1.11 0.00
1831 4.85 3.89 -0.33 1.22 0.05
3142 4.68 1.04 2.34 1.26 0.53
3784 4.60 2.37 2.40 -0.17 0.22
1583 4.60 1.67 1.87 1.23 0.33
3189 4.47 1.52 1.27 2.64 0.65
771 4.41 1.33 0.77 -0.23 -0.01
1262 4.05 -0.47 3.12 1.21 0.17
3173 3.87 4.29 0.55 -0.69 -0.22
4013 3.81 1.93 -0.76 2.87 0.14
4394 3.57 -0.83 2.19 2.26 0.19
4028 3.36 1.25 1.52 0.60 0.28
296 3.21 0.41 -0.40 3.23 0.18
1212 3.10 2.08 -0.32 1.92 -0.01
4090 3.01 3.96 -0.51 -0.33 -0.13
568 2.28 -0.03 -2.01 4.34 0.03
3981 1.78 2.01 -1.67 1.46 -0.02
4372 1.49 -0.55 0.62 1.43 0.08
4353 1.42 2.65 -0.28 0.11 0.37
3530 1.05 -1.56 0.77 1.85 -0.19
585 1.03 4.19 -1.78 -0.97 0.02
3259 0.83 -0.22 -0.57 1.58 0.60
2704 0.16 1.93 -1.32 -0.49 -0.24
2010 0.02 -2.13 2.36 -0.05 0.27
2339 -0.08 0.05 -2.04 1.52 0.34
3925 -0.50 -0.56 0.34 -0.36 -0.13
2158 -0.55 0.80 -0.56 -0.67 -0.03
151 -1.15 -0.19 0.54 -1.64 0.05
1382 -3.74 -5.07 1.77 -0.15 0.19
Seeds:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev top8 #1
25 9.24 7 3 1 39 7.68 115 13
180 6.95 4 1 1 31 6.84 137 42
399 19.09 18 19 1 62 11.20 35 3
2169 17.19 15 12 1 74 12.05 47 3
16 8.91 6 1 1 42 8.16 118 31
33 17.12 15 2 1 60 12.29 63 5
2054 14.28 12 6 1 45 10.47 78 10
48 21.94 20 15 1 73 13.76 34 4
3322 10.66 7 6 1 52 9.74 111 18
103 21.16 19 10 1 66 13.24 37 3
1918 23.98 22 12 1 74 14.28 27 1
148 18.77 17 4 1 60 12.69 51 2
1323 16.15 14 7 1 56 10.96 59 6
801 23.28 21.5 24 1 63 13.36 27 2
1671 36.41 36 39 4 91 17.30 6 0
2337 22.65 20 12 1 81 15.08 38 5
8 27.46 26 19 1 84 15.07 19 1
573 21.68 19 11 1 66 14.36 38 1
1538 22.17 21 24 1 75 14.08 32 2
1714 11.96 11 8 1 46 8.82 86 10
2928 22.89 20 20 1 69 13.85 28 1
1718 9.23 7 1 1 53 8.35 117 27
744 38.23 38 38 2 92 18.06 8 0
1208 22.43 21 8 1 69 14.91 44 4
772 27.33 25 29 1 74 16.69 24 1
358 30.08 29 21 2 81 15.59 13 0
1574 38.27 38 29 3 92 18.24 6 0
342 49.95 49 39 5 98 17.55 1 0
868 39.82 38 42 2 86 16.65 2 0
2016 28.79 26 30 1 77 16.34 20 2
1350 46.97 47 25 4 90 19.46 5 0
2377 42.73 42 43 7 99 16.99 1 0
1732 18.41 17 3 1 57 12.57 52 2
125 33.31 30 19 2 83 17.32 11 0
1425 33.48 33 32 5 77 15.89 9 0
527 36.69 36 19 2 82 16.98 6 0
3196 39.17 38.5 39 2 85 17.69 5 0
3103 60.37 62 72 16 97 18.82 0 0
231 39.89 38.5 39 4 87 16.96 5 0
1747 55.95 55.5 49 6 100 18.38 1 0
2486 44.46 44.5 49 3 91 18.11 5 0
815 28.84 27 22 2 68 14.92 15 0
2090 56.98 54 40 14 96 18.27 0 0
533 56.31 56 50 11 99 17.59 0 0
263 43.02 41 41 6 94 17.74 5 0
2220 28.96 28 29 2 77 16.66 19 0
269 54.32 54 60 8 98 19.70 1 0
2642 46.67 47 40 5 92 18.54 1 0
2439 26.46 25 18 2 74 14.51 20 0
237 32.01 29.5 21 1 79 16.50 10 1
1108 41.89 41 55 4 92 18.25 3 0
2341 70.73 72 67 32 100 16.90 0 0
4159 61.21 60 60 19 99 18.41 0 0
4146 72.05 74 71 12 100 18.00 0 0
4057 73.46 75 62 23 100 17.15 0 0
281 66.59 68 89 11 100 19.08 0 0
69 69.06 69 70 18 100 17.31 0 0
1038 59.58 60 75 18 96 19.66 0 0
1011 55.47 55 51 8 96 18.07 1 0
3453 73.08 76 78 25 100 16.14 0 0
4099 76.64 79 84 23 100 16.51 0 0
1305 50.91 50 50 9 92 17.18 0 0
4083 52.95 53.5 69 10 98 18.58 0 0
3574 40.70 38 36 7 88 16.60 1 0
492 77.50 81 88 20 100 16.04 0 0
384 54.69 55 68 12 99 16.84 0 0
3931 65.98 69 83 8 99 18.92 1 0
766 73.23 75 90 27 99 16.03 0 0
1515 66.07 67.5 57 25 99 17.35 0 0
4031 82.84 86 93 37 100 14.14 0 0
870 64.44 65 61 11 100 18.91 0 0
168 75.87 77 79 33 100 15.17 0 0
1831 75.51 78.5 94 15 100 16.95 0 0
3142 55.49 56 44 18 95 17.67 0 0
3784 67.32 67 84 12 100 17.53 0 0
1583 63.83 64.5 77 17 97 17.46 0 0
3189 53.58 54 71 4 96 19.47 2 0
771 78.30 81.5 94 34 100 15.49 0 0
1262 70.14 70.5 65 32 100 16.38 0 0
3173 84.73 88 96 37 100 13.20 0 0
4013 75.65 77 88 25 100 16.47 0 0
4394 71.25 76 84 13 100 18.50 0 0
4028 67.96 69 74 14 98 16.74 0 0
296 73.46 76 87 22 100 17.32 0 0
1212 79.95 83 97 27 100 15.39 0 0
4090 82.47 86 96 30 100 14.84 0 0
568 80.92 84 92 36 100 15.17 0 0
3981 83.95 87 100 44 100 13.40 0 0
4372 81.12 85 85 27 100 14.69 0 0
4353 70.82 72 77 16 100 17.49 0 0
3530 87.48 91 100 39 100 11.77 0 0
585 83.55 87 94 36 100 13.47 0 0
3259 60.52 60.5 68 21 99 17.96 0 0
2704 90.69 95 100 51 100 10.55 0 0
2010 73.76 74 85 21 100 16.41 0 0
2339 72.13 73 67 23 100 17.46 0 0
3925 88.68 92 99 51 100 10.59 0 0
2158 85.91 89 89 47 100 11.95 0 0
151 82.40 86 96 25 100 14.11 0 0
1382 80.68 83 95 34 100 13.73 0 0
QPs:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev Perfect
25 28.66 29 30 21 36 2.90 1
180 29.19 30 30 22 36 3.06 2
399 25.92 26 26 16 32 3.01 0
2169 25.72 26 26 14 34 3.26 0
16 28.29 28 28 20 36 3.20 2
33 26.46 26 26 16 34 3.30 0
2054 26.97 27 26 20 34 3.26 0
48 24.35 24 24 14 34 3.55 0
3322 28.17 28 28 18 36 3.22 1
103 24.96 25 26 16 34 3.56 0
1918 24.84 24.5 26 14 34 3.67 0
148 25.98 26 24 18 34 3.51 0
1323 26.50 26 26 18 34 3.20 0
801 24.74 25 26 16 32 3.28 0
1671 20.89 20.5 22 11 28 3.60 0
2337 24.16 24 26 13 33 3.88 0
8 24.03 24 26 13 34 3.65 0
573 24.63 24 26 15 34 3.64 0
1538 24.71 24 24 14 34 3.60 0
1714 27.88 28 28 20 36 2.83 1
2928 25.20 26 26 14 32 3.42 0
1718 28.61 28 28 18 35 3.07 0
744 20.82 20 22 10 30 3.97 0
1208 24.85 25 22 16 36 3.75 1
772 23.42 24 24 14 34 3.91 0
358 23.23 23 22 13 32 3.58 0
1574 20.61 20 22 10 28 3.88 0
342 18.19 18 20 8 30 3.46 0
868 20.55 20 20 10 30 3.51 0
2016 23.25 24 22 13 34 3.88 0
1350 19.51 20 20 10 30 4.03 0
2377 20.16 20 20 7 28 3.53 0
1732 26.18 26 26 18 35 3.42 0
125 22.12 22 24 12 30 3.82 0
1425 21.96 22 22 14 30 3.47 0
527 21.15 21.5 22 11 32 3.73 0
3196 20.49 20 18 12 31 3.76 0
3103 16.11 16 16 8 26 3.72 0
231 21.42 22 22 12 30 3.58 0
1747 17.21 17 16 8 30 3.82 0
2486 19.83 20 20 10 32 3.85 0
815 23.38 24 24 14 32 3.46 0
2090 16.85 17.5 18 8 26 3.57 0
533 17.46 18 18 6 28 3.62 0
263 19.76 20 20 10 28 3.65 0
2220 23.22 23 22 14 34 3.85 0
269 17.52 18 16 7 26 4.07 0
2642 19.13 19 18 10 28 3.74 0
2439 24.13 24 26 16 34 3.51 0
237 22.40 22 24 13 34 3.66 0
1108 20.03 20 18 10 29 3.80 0
2341 14.84 14 14 6 22 3.54 0
4159 16.23 16 16 8 24 3.70 0
4146 13.81 14 14 2 28 4.06 0
4057 14.66 15 16 6 24 3.79 0
281 15.06 15 14 4 28 4.00 0
69 15.47 16 16 4 26 3.66 0
1038 17.15 17 18 8 26 3.96 0
1011 17.81 18 18 8 30 3.72 0
3453 13.84 14 16 6 24 3.54 0
4099 13.25 14 14 4 24 3.71 0
1305 18.57 18 18 10 28 3.50 0
4083 18.66 18 18 8 28 3.80 0
3574 20.81 21 22 10 28 3.48 0
492 12.57 12 10 4 24 3.71 0
384 17.61 18 16 8 28 3.45 0
3931 15.24 15 18 6 28 3.88 0
766 14.42 14 14 6 23 3.45 0
1515 15.80 16 16 8 24 3.60 0
4031 12.11 12 12 4 22 3.36 0
870 16.61 16 18 6 28 3.82 0
168 13.62 14 14 4 22 3.61 0
1831 13.79 14 14 2 27 3.90 0
3142 17.93 18 20 8 26 3.62 0
3784 15.34 16 16 4 28 3.89 0
1583 16.31 16 16 8 26 3.55 0
3189 18.59 18 18 8 30 3.92 0
771 12.95 13 10 2 22 3.78 0
1262 14.60 15 16 4 22 3.59 0
3173 11.31 11 10 2 21 3.56 0
4013 14.10 14 16 2 24 3.56 0
4394 14.56 14 14 4 28 4.10 0
4028 15.37 16 14 8 27 3.46 0
296 14.43 14 14 6 26 3.85 0
1212 12.86 12 12 4 24 3.65 0
4090 12.28 12 12 2 23 3.75 0
568 12.92 12 12 4 22 3.65 0
3981 12.19 12 10 2 22 3.40 0
4372 12.44 12 12 4 22 3.46 0
4353 15.01 15 14 6 26 3.70 0
3530 10.54 10 12 4 20 3.37 0
585 12.22 12 12 2 22 3.48 0
3259 17.40 18 18 6 26 3.53 0
2704 9.78 10 8 2 20 3.48 0
2010 13.95 14 12 4 24 3.68 0
2339 14.91 16 16 6 26 3.83 0
3925 10.40 10 10 1 19 3.26 0
2158 11.46 12 12 4 20 3.36 0
151 12.09 12 12 4 25 3.43 0
1382 12.32 12 12 4 22 3.36 0
Wins:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev Perfect
25 7.56 8 8 4 9 0.99 31
180 7.41 8 8 4 9 1.13 34
399 7.20 7 7 4 9 1.10 27
2169 7.30 7.5 8 3 9 1.21 27
16 7.14 7 8 4 9 1.18 27
33 7.01 7 8 3 9 1.28 21
2054 6.97 7 7 4 9 1.16 12
48 6.40 6.5 7 2 9 1.35 8
3322 6.74 7 7 3 9 1.25 11
103 6.46 6 7 4 9 1.18 7
1918 6.46 7 7 3 9 1.45 12
148 6.38 6 7 3 9 1.29 11
1323 6.37 6 6 3 9 1.29 11
801 6.18 6 6 3 9 1.36 5
1671 6.18 6 6 2 9 1.35 3
2337 6.05 6 6 2 9 1.41 5
8 5.80 6 6 2 9 1.51 1
573 6.16 6 7 3 9 1.38 7
1538 5.82 6 6 2 9 1.41 5
1714 5.48 6 6 2 9 1.33 2
2928 6.04 6 6 2 9 1.35 5
1718 5.51 5 5 2 9 1.41 1
744 5.48 5 5 2 9 1.44 2
1208 5.52 5.5 5 1 9 1.50 3
772 5.77 6 5 1 9 1.55 5
358 5.66 6 7 1 9 1.44 3
1574 5.62 6 6 2 9 1.37 1
342 5.68 6 6 1 9 1.38 1
868 5.26 5 5 2 8 1.42 0
2016 5.34 5 6 2 9 1.55 5
1350 5.19 5 5 2 9 1.56 4
2377 5.36 5 6 1 8 1.41 0
1732 5.04 5 5 1 9 1.54 1
125 5.08 5 5 1 8 1.48 0
1425 5.30 5 6 2 9 1.44 1
527 5.05 5 5 0 9 1.58 2
3196 5.08 5 5 1 8 1.37 0
3103 4.85 5 5 1 8 1.46 0
231 4.94 5 6 1 8 1.46 0
1747 4.71 5 5 1 9 1.48 1
2486 4.87 5 5 0 8 1.48 0
815 4.66 5 5 1 9 1.47 1
2090 4.75 5 4 1 8 1.48 0
533 4.66 5 5 1 9 1.59 1
263 4.58 4 4 1 8 1.38 0
2220 4.66 5 5 1 8 1.63 0
269 4.60 5 5 1 9 1.55 1
2642 4.83 5 6 1 9 1.43 1
2439 4.54 5 5 1 9 1.64 1
237 4.66 5 5 0 8 1.53 0
1108 4.51 4 4 1 8 1.49 0
2341 4.33 4 4 1 8 1.42 0
4159 4.49 5 5 1 8 1.59 0
4146 4.26 4 5 0 8 1.51 0
4057 4.09 4 4 1 8 1.55 0
281 4.11 4 4 0 8 1.43 0
69 4.23 4 5 1 8 1.46 0
1038 3.94 4 4 0 7 1.51 0
1011 3.85 4 4 1 8 1.42 0
3453 3.70 4 3 1 8 1.40 0
4099 3.70 4 4 0 9 1.43 1
1305 3.61 4 4 0 7 1.37 0
4083 3.72 4 3 0 8 1.44 0
3574 3.72 4 4 0 7 1.33 0
492 3.45 3 3 0 7 1.43 0
384 3.59 3 3 1 8 1.35 0
3931 3.64 4 4 1 7 1.41 0
766 3.47 3 3 1 7 1.26 0
1515 3.23 3 3 0 7 1.35 0
4031 3.37 3 3 0 7 1.40 0
870 3.27 3 4 0 8 1.51 0
168 3.17 3 3 0 7 1.39 0
1831 3.04 3 3 0 7 1.41 0
3142 3.11 3 3 0 8 1.35 0
3784 3.04 3 3 0 6 1.35 0
1583 3.10 3 3 0 7 1.35 0
3189 2.93 3 3 0 7 1.51 0
771 2.81 3 2 0 7 1.46 0
1262 3.06 3 3 0 7 1.41 0
3173 2.92 3 3 0 6 1.37 0
4013 2.79 3 3 0 7 1.33 0
4394 2.96 3 2 0 7 1.45 0
4028 2.80 3 2 0 8 1.36 0
296 2.80 3 2 0 6 1.43 0
1212 2.80 3 2 0 8 1.47 0
4090 2.93 3 3 0 6 1.42 0
568 2.75 3 3 0 6 1.31 0
3981 2.57 3 3 0 6 1.24 0
4372 2.30 2 2 0 7 1.34 0
4353 2.46 2 2 0 5 1.27 0
3530 2.49 2 2 0 7 1.37 0
585 2.39 2 2 0 6 1.31 0
3259 2.52 2 2 0 6 1.32 0
2704 2.17 2 2 0 6 1.26 0
2010 2.25 2 2 0 7 1.38 0
2339 2.45 2 3 0 6 1.40 0
3925 2.22 2 2 0 5 1.27 0
2158 2.19 2 2 0 5 1.27 0
151 2.18 2 2 0 7 1.27 0
1382 1.63 2 2 0 5 1.12 0
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