| Joe Ross |
21-04-2012 00:04 |
Re: Curie 2012!
Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 200 simulated qualification match schedules (with 9 matches per team, using the FIRST match generator).
I used each team's highest adjusted opr at any event to choose that team's "best event". Then, for that event, I used their unadjusted OPR for their contribution to a match. I also used the hybrid OPR, bridge OPR, teleop OPR to help calculate the standings. For the co-op bridge, I summed the co-op OPR for all 6 robots in the match and compared that to a threshold. When back-testing against regionals, if the threshold was chosen to be close to the number of actual co-ops at the regional, it had a relatively high correlation to the actual results on the co-op bridge. Almost all regionals had a correlation co-efficient of between 0.6 and 0.85. However, at the Michigan State Championship, the correlation coefficient was only 0.3. I believe this is because almost all of the robots there were able to balance so the balances that didn't happen weren't be cause of the robots, but because of luck. I used this method for calculating the co-ops, trying to get a co-op percent of around 60% (higher then most regionals, but lower then MSC). Overall, this isn't a very good way to do it, as it punishes teams at early regionals and regionals where teams did not co-op that much. However, it's included to help simulate the randomness of the rankings this year. All OPR data is from Ed Law's spreadsheet.
I calculated the results for each of the 200 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
Since the standings are much more complicated this year, and the co-op bridge is so important, and there isn't a very good way to simulate it, I looked at both the ranks, the number of qualification points, and the number of wins.
Everyone should attend Karthik's presentation at the championships where he covers "Why 'OPR' is a flawed indicator in Rebound Rumble".
The following were the values that were used in the simulation
Code:
Team OPR Teleop Hybrid Bridge Coop
987 35.28 21.76 8.72 5.25 0.88
341 34.58 14.39 17.18 3.01 0.81
624 32.60 17.26 8.45 6.75 0.50
2474 32.32 15.87 10.43 6.00 0.48
254 32.12 17.21 7.62 7.70 0.50
3098 27.54 7.99 11.48 8.07 0.95
1507 27.04 12.97 9.06 5.27 0.71
1986 26.28 10.07 9.28 6.88 0.83
27 24.98 10.26 5.49 9.22 0.69
971 23.92 12.63 7.97 3.75 1.18
233 23.78 16.70 5.17 2.22 0.19
3528 22.60 11.48 10.56 0.48 0.22
1985 22.58 10.71 7.47 4.74 0.03
3205 22.39 5.90 10.13 6.37 0.30
78 21.43 10.45 6.23 5.70 -0.25
1678 21.41 12.11 6.05 3.08 0.93
836 20.85 9.72 5.98 5.74 0.66
1477 20.70 13.58 5.84 1.66 1.16
525 20.08 9.74 4.08 6.79 0.51
51 20.07 9.17 6.81 4.09 0.95
3288 19.03 5.11 5.08 8.46 0.18
1741 18.99 7.63 8.73 2.82 0.28
2960 18.07 7.06 4.03 6.97 0.32
830 17.33 4.14 10.90 2.29 0.00
58 17.09 7.54 9.80 -0.50 0.30
192 16.97 3.52 5.54 7.28 -0.26
3419 16.57 3.77 1.38 11.31 -0.24
1828 16.34 7.88 6.91 2.01 0.17
694 16.19 6.41 3.09 6.88 0.59
1319 16.11 5.65 5.13 5.34 0.21
3929 15.65 2.60 3.83 9.22 0.36
2180 15.59 4.71 9.43 1.45 0.81
1511 15.34 8.29 4.16 2.60 0.62
85 15.25 5.39 5.85 4.06 0.13
3940 14.40 3.24 7.02 4.46 0.03
537 14.09 5.17 6.79 2.25 -0.44
702 13.40 8.26 7.07 -1.74 0.65
3970 13.10 9.28 3.16 0.52 1.07
2626 12.20 8.32 -0.09 3.91 0.31
2522 12.08 5.10 3.12 4.52 0.07
1690 12.03 8.15 3.03 0.73 0.29
1391 12.03 3.25 6.86 1.92 0.20
1764 11.74 4.63 5.20 2.40 0.22
1885 11.62 3.96 6.68 1.34 0.11
4069 11.59 -0.15 7.22 4.40 0.84
1683 11.34 1.03 3.08 7.13 -0.23
1501 11.11 3.36 3.67 4.08 0.27
461 10.56 0.89 8.66 1.34 0.37
2591 10.50 7.22 4.25 -0.98 0.49
1912 10.20 2.84 3.21 3.86 0.51
2881 9.79 3.50 4.07 2.54 0.43
279 9.73 -0.23 3.26 6.69 -0.05
1266 9.61 0.52 5.69 3.55 0.41
3880 9.59 1.36 6.59 1.75 0.08
3965 9.55 2.48 1.18 6.25 0.25
244 9.26 0.90 3.41 4.96 0.68
1143 9.18 8.51 0.33 0.31 0.11
503 8.97 3.53 6.07 -0.64 0.68
4161 8.94 2.72 1.15 5.57 0.23
288 8.49 0.52 0.78 7.21 0.37
433 8.39 -0.96 4.44 4.60 -0.09
604 8.26 -0.05 3.48 4.13 0.42
1817 8.13 3.08 0.34 5.04 -0.28
207 7.65 3.92 -0.71 2.81 0.25
3951 7.46 2.56 1.96 2.78 0.41
3847 7.10 1.70 5.36 0.14 0.15
3936 7.04 0.45 6.04 0.51 0.17
4226 6.62 2.25 4.44 -0.44 0.04
2102 6.29 3.05 1.27 2.34 0.14
2164 6.23 2.93 2.55 0.76 0.52
4265 6.01 2.80 1.22 2.13 0.29
706 5.89 -0.98 2.86 4.01 0.71
120 5.87 1.66 2.48 1.94 -0.14
2914 5.71 3.76 -4.05 6.58 0.47
116 5.53 1.22 -1.12 5.62 1.02
564 5.40 -0.19 4.00 1.46 -0.26
932 5.12 3.45 1.09 0.57 -0.13
3711 4.98 2.79 2.32 -0.14 0.42
1649 4.60 5.04 0.10 -0.20 -0.26
2500 4.13 -0.51 0.51 4.59 -0.38
3950 3.96 1.34 -2.57 5.09 0.37
4253 3.85 1.28 -1.46 4.14 0.05
4130 3.76 -0.59 0.67 3.68 0.47
293 3.53 5.80 -1.42 -0.85 0.22
2130 3.42 0.60 4.82 -2.00 0.74
415 3.38 1.35 0.50 1.65 0.35
3132 2.86 -0.51 0.14 3.38 0.10
571 2.81 2.19 -0.96 1.68 0.31
3807 2.56 0.59 0.84 1.78 0.26
4203 2.53 0.73 -0.28 1.90 -0.11
3115 2.38 -1.65 1.54 2.22 -0.10
597 2.08 5.49 -0.53 -3.24 0.62
4269 1.78 1.68 1.26 -1.50 0.84
2844 1.41 -1.50 1.01 2.13 0.58
1778 1.28 0.36 2.61 -1.18 0.31
2757 -1.26 0.82 -1.34 -0.60 -0.38
178 -1.55 -2.24 2.87 -2.07 0.41
3860 -1.79 0.79 -0.97 -1.08 0.17
1033 -1.92 0.03 -1.10 -0.57 -0.08
3941 -2.49 -1.88 -1.21 -0.27 -0.16
Seeds:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev top8 #1
987 5.39 4 1 1 24 4.71 162 37
341 4.81 3 1 1 18 4.03 165 47
624 13.70 12 10 1 51 9.05 65 6
2474 12.75 10.5 7 1 59 9.42 84 2
254 13.49 11 11 1 55 10.11 75 6
3098 7.67 6 1 1 42 6.90 129 29
1507 10.58 9 3 1 54 8.53 97 10
1986 10.20 8 3 1 53 8.63 105 11
27 15.65 12 8 1 69 12.41 69 1
971 8.12 7 2 1 42 6.72 127 17
233 32.12 28.5 22 2 84 17.47 5 0
3528 28.93 25 12 2 91 16.72 13 0
1985 39.30 36 27 6 87 18.17 1 0
3205 27.59 26 10 2 76 15.69 15 0
78 54.28 55 52 12 98 19.83 0 0
1678 13.18 10 5 1 65 10.31 82 13
836 20.61 16 10 1 76 14.25 38 1
1477 10.86 9 2 1 48 9.22 99 11
525 28.07 25.5 24 3 80 15.10 13 0
51 13.16 11 7 1 58 9.83 77 6
3288 38.74 35 25 7 93 19.42 1 0
1741 31.15 27 16 4 96 18.54 12 0
2960 38.19 34 27 6 93 19.92 6 0
830 50.49 50 38 2 99 19.34 1 0
58 35.55 33.5 21 3 94 19.39 10 0
192 61.80 61 41 15 100 19.84 0 0
3419 63.68 65 76 15 99 20.89 0 0
1828 49.16 49.5 73 9 98 21.06 0 0
694 30.65 27 13 1 89 17.48 12 1
1319 45.47 43 26 3 95 20.70 5 0
3929 39.48 36 55 1 88 19.08 2 1
2180 21.63 18 12 1 74 14.68 38 1
1511 31.07 29.5 16 2 94 17.40 9 0
85 49.28 50.5 29 4 91 21.05 4 0
3940 55.73 54 77 12 99 19.30 0 0
537 74.14 78 83 25 100 18.51 0 0
702 32.04 29 22 2 82 17.44 12 0
3970 23.72 20 11 2 82 14.92 20 0
2626 52.41 50 69 14 100 21.00 0 0
2522 59.86 58.5 69 14 99 20.84 0 0
1690 49.82 50 50 11 97 20.79 0 0
1391 48.08 48 55 6 96 19.90 1 0
1764 51.65 52 52 10 96 20.72 0 0
1885 56.68 58.5 65 10 98 21.52 0 0
4069 25.84 23 29 2 81 15.80 18 0
1683 70.98 74.5 78 23 100 18.73 0 0
1501 53.29 50.5 40 14 95 21.11 0 0
461 43.97 42 42 6 93 18.93 3 0
2591 42.41 41 46 8 92 18.85 1 0
1912 45.24 43 30 4 96 20.27 2 0
2881 47.59 46.5 48 6 93 19.95 2 0
279 68.66 71 76 15 99 20.57 0 0
1266 45.79 46 49 5 94 20.59 2 0
3880 62.39 65 62 8 100 21.30 1 0
3965 55.17 52 34 5 100 22.97 1 0
244 38.62 36.5 31 5 88 18.65 3 0
1143 68.18 70 83 15 100 19.31 0 0
503 40.68 38 19 4 92 19.15 2 0
4161 60.46 61 48 11 100 19.59 0 0
288 54.66 55 50 12 99 20.64 0 0
433 71.98 76 66 14 100 19.23 0 0
604 52.00 51 53 9 98 19.13 0 0
1817 83.51 87 96 37 100 14.30 0 0
207 61.75 63 56 12 100 20.30 0 0
3951 56.85 57 67 15 99 19.98 0 0
3847 65.38 69 77 16 98 19.86 0 0
3936 61.80 64 70 5 98 20.74 1 0
4226 70.18 73 67 19 100 18.98 0 0
2102 67.21 69.5 85 14 99 20.65 0 0
2164 53.20 54 50 10 100 20.93 0 0
4265 62.85 65 76 12 100 20.77 0 0
706 42.39 41.5 33 6 91 18.58 2 0
120 79.32 84 85 25 100 16.19 0 0
2914 59.75 61 61 12 96 20.91 0 0
116 37.28 33 22 5 86 18.65 3 0
564 84.05 88 97 22 100 14.67 0 0
932 80.20 85 69 34 100 15.93 0 0
3711 61.42 61.5 77 12 98 20.00 0 0
1649 85.42 89 100 39 100 13.75 0 0
2500 90.77 94 98 51 100 9.45 0 0
3950 64.86 67 90 14 100 20.84 0 0
4253 77.79 82 89 33 100 15.52 0 0
4130 58.71 58 46 14 100 22.41 0 0
293 70.96 74 94 19 100 19.30 0 0
2130 43.74 43 44 5 88 18.62 4 0
415 69.04 73 87 13 98 19.63 0 0
3132 77.49 82 78 19 100 18.57 0 0
571 70.36 74 82 9 100 19.76 0 0
3807 68.76 72 91 16 99 19.82 0 0
4203 84.08 88 99 19 100 14.31 0 0
3115 84.78 90 94 34 100 14.48 0 0
597 56.00 57.5 62 8 98 20.47 1 0
4269 52.08 52.5 66 13 92 18.19 0 0
2844 61.11 62 47 11 99 18.62 0 0
1778 73.06 76 90 20 100 17.44 0 0
2757 93.34 97 100 32 100 9.80 0 0
178 69.49 74 84 14 100 18.94 0 0
3860 82.21 86 93 24 100 15.09 0 0
1033 89.09 93 99 35 100 11.42 0 0
3941 91.08 94 99 30 100 10.82 0 0
QPs:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev Perfect
987 30.18 30 32 22 36 2.79 4
341 29.88 30 30 24 36 2.68 2
624 26.54 26 28 18 36 3.11 1
2474 26.67 26.5 28 16 34 3.22 0
254 26.76 26 26 18 36 3.45 1
3098 28.82 29 28 18 36 3.22 4
1507 27.84 28 28 18 35 3.36 0
1986 27.98 28 28 18 34 3.32 0
27 26.60 27 28 16 34 3.48 0
971 29.05 29 30 20 36 3.11 5
233 22.24 22 20 12 30 3.68 0
3528 22.25 22 20 12 34 3.62 0
1985 20.37 20 20 12 28 3.39 0
3205 22.61 22 22 14 32 3.46 0
78 17.77 18 16 9 26 3.53 0
1678 27.29 28 28 16 36 3.63 3
836 24.99 26 28 14 34 3.82 0
1477 28.35 28 30 20 36 3.48 2
525 23.30 23 22 14 32 3.47 0
51 27.10 28 28 17 34 3.23 0
3288 20.71 21 22 10 28 3.59 0
1741 21.93 22 20 8 30 3.85 0
2960 21.14 22 22 10 30 3.88 0
830 18.00 18 18 7 30 3.42 0
58 20.97 20 20 11 30 3.88 0
192 16.32 16 16 6 26 3.73 0
3419 16.62 16 18 6 26 3.89 0
1828 18.60 18 20 7 27 3.79 0
694 22.90 23 24 12 33 3.81 0
1319 19.55 20 20 8 32 3.92 0
3929 20.91 20 22 14 32 3.64 0
2180 24.22 24 26 14 32 3.69 0
1511 22.64 22 22 10 32 3.81 0
85 18.70 18 18 9 30 3.89 0
3940 17.35 18 18 6 27 3.47 0
537 13.67 14 14 2 22 3.88 0
702 21.98 22 22 12 32 3.67 0
3970 24.49 24 24 14 34 3.54 0
2626 18.89 20 20 8 26 3.70 0
2522 17.07 18 18 6 26 3.87 0
1690 18.99 19 18 8 28 3.83 0
1391 18.72 18 18 8 29 3.68 0
1764 18.42 18 18 8 27 3.71 0
1885 17.22 17 16 7 28 3.99 0
4069 23.31 24 24 14 33 3.63 0
1683 14.83 14 14 4 23 3.74 0
1501 18.23 18 20 10 28 3.78 0
461 19.30 19.5 18 11 28 3.41 0
2591 20.24 20 22 10 28 3.45 0
1912 19.86 20 22 10 30 3.72 0
2881 19.24 20 20 10 30 3.70 0
279 15.27 16 16 4 26 4.22 0
1266 19.23 19 18 8 30 3.93 0
3880 16.13 16 16 6 28 3.86 0
3965 18.25 18.5 22 6 29 4.21 0
244 21.15 21 20 12 30 3.55 0
1143 15.99 16 18 6 26 3.67 0
503 20.28 20 20 11 30 3.56 0
4161 17.31 18 20 6 28 3.61 0
288 18.45 18 18 7 28 3.76 0
433 14.49 14 14 4 25 3.96 0
604 18.62 18 18 8 28 3.42 0
1817 12.41 12 12 0 20 3.61 0
207 17.32 18 16 7 28 3.80 0
3951 17.84 18 18 6 26 3.60 0
3847 15.80 16 14 8 24 3.73 0
3936 16.31 16 16 6 28 3.90 0
4226 14.94 14.5 14 4 26 3.81 0
2102 15.94 16 16 6 26 4.07 0
2164 18.38 18 18 8 28 3.69 0
4265 16.80 16 16 3 28 3.92 0
706 20.43 20 18 12 30 3.49 0
120 13.20 13.5 12 4 24 3.75 0
2914 17.86 18 18 10 28 3.62 0
116 21.83 22 22 13 30 3.47 0
564 11.64 12 12 2 22 3.75 0
932 13.08 12 12 4 22 3.69 0
3711 17.08 17 18 8 28 3.69 0
1649 11.83 12 12 4 22 3.79 0
2500 10.20 10 10 4 19 3.04 0
3950 16.91 17 18 8 26 3.89 0
4253 14.12 14 14 4 23 3.47 0
4130 17.61 18 18 6 28 4.19 0
293 15.54 16 16 6 26 3.79 0
2130 19.86 20 20 12 30 3.47 0
415 15.78 16 14 8 25 3.71 0
3132 13.90 14 12 6 25 3.92 0
571 15.67 16 16 4 28 3.93 0
3807 15.72 16 14 8 27 3.81 0
4203 12.30 12 12 2 26 3.72 0
3115 11.65 12 10 2 22 3.73 0
597 18.30 18 18 8 28 3.72 0
4269 18.93 18 18 12 27 3.11 0
2844 17.21 17 16 8 26 3.39 0
1778 14.59 14 12 6 26 3.64 0
2757 9.04 9 8 0 22 3.57 0
178 15.24 14 14 6 26 3.67 0
3860 12.94 13 14 4 24 3.64 0
1033 11.08 10 10 4 22 3.37 0
3941 10.28 10 10 0 22 3.51 0
Wins:
Code:
avg med mode min max stdev Perfect
987 7.94 8 8 5 9 0.92 61
341 7.89 8 8 5 9 0.91 55
624 7.64 8 8 5 9 1.07 48
2474 7.68 8 8 5 9 1.03 48
254 7.61 8 7 4 9 1.08 48
3098 7.08 7 7 4 9 1.25 24
1507 7.13 7 7 4 9 1.21 29
1986 6.88 7 8 2 9 1.31 16
27 6.78 7 6 2 9 1.37 17
971 6.51 6.5 6 3 9 1.30 11
233 6.56 7 7 3 9 1.27 8
3528 6.41 6 6 3 9 1.30 5
1985 6.37 6 6 2 9 1.38 10
3205 6.32 6 7 3 9 1.29 5
78 6.04 6 7 2 9 1.35 4
1678 6.24 6 6 2 9 1.46 12
836 6.12 6 6 1 9 1.45 8
1477 6.09 6 6 2 9 1.49 7
525 5.73 6 6 2 9 1.38 2
51 6.25 6 6 3 9 1.43 8
3288 5.84 6 7 2 9 1.42 2
1741 5.78 6 5 2 9 1.44 4
2960 5.58 6 6 2 9 1.42 2
830 5.37 5.5 6 1 9 1.45 2
58 5.26 5 6 1 9 1.46 1
192 5.33 5 6 1 9 1.57 1
3419 5.38 5 5 1 9 1.44 1
1828 4.84 5 5 1 9 1.56 1
694 5.28 5 5 1 9 1.47 3
1319 5.10 5 5 1 9 1.49 4
3929 5.23 5 5 2 9 1.35 1
2180 5.16 5 6 0 9 1.54 3
1511 4.97 5 5 2 9 1.47 1
85 5.09 5 5 2 9 1.46 1
3940 4.72 5 5 0 8 1.37 0
537 4.72 5 5 1 8 1.53 0
702 4.53 5 5 1 8 1.47 0
3970 4.54 5 5 1 8 1.50 0
2626 4.52 5 5 1 8 1.48 0
2522 4.33 4 4 1 9 1.58 1
1690 4.32 4 4 1 8 1.47 0
1391 4.62 5 5 1 8 1.45 0
1764 4.47 4 4 1 8 1.48 0
1885 4.33 4 5 1 8 1.51 0
4069 4.39 4 5 0 8 1.59 0
1683 4.44 4 4 0 8 1.44 0
1501 4.31 4 5 0 7 1.49 0
461 4.35 4 4 1 8 1.42 0
2591 4.19 4 4 0 8 1.40 0
1912 4.09 4 4 1 8 1.41 0
2881 4.07 4 3 1 8 1.37 0
279 4.08 4 5 1 9 1.67 1
1266 4.13 4 4 0 8 1.57 0
3880 3.92 4 4 0 8 1.43 0
3965 4.19 4 5 1 9 1.59 1
244 4.09 4 4 0 8 1.42 0
1143 3.81 4 4 0 8 1.40 0
503 3.81 4 4 0 7 1.45 0
4161 3.97 4 4 0 8 1.45 0
288 3.81 4 3 0 8 1.49 0
433 3.74 4 4 0 7 1.47 0
604 3.91 4 4 1 7 1.35 0
1817 3.68 4 3 0 7 1.41 0
207 3.87 4 4 1 9 1.48 1
3951 3.48 3.5 4 0 7 1.46 0
3847 3.49 3 3 0 7 1.33 0
3936 3.72 4 4 0 7 1.60 0
4226 3.44 3 4 0 8 1.53 0
2102 3.58 4 4 0 8 1.50 0
2164 3.25 3 3 0 7 1.38 0
4265 3.48 3 3 0 7 1.47 0
706 3.55 4 4 0 7 1.41 0
120 3.45 3 4 0 8 1.37 0
2914 3.28 3 2 0 7 1.45 0
116 3.29 3 3 0 8 1.37 0
564 3.08 3 3 0 7 1.38 0
932 3.26 3 3 0 7 1.38 0
3711 3.13 3 3 0 7 1.41 0
1649 3.13 3 2 0 6 1.37 0
2500 2.87 3 3 0 7 1.27 0
3950 3.00 3 3 0 7 1.42 0
4253 2.98 3 3 0 7 1.43 0
4130 3.04 3 2 0 7 1.45 0
293 2.98 3 2 0 7 1.35 0
2130 3.06 3 3 0 8 1.40 0
415 2.63 3 2 0 8 1.32 0
3132 2.79 3 3 0 7 1.52 0
571 2.81 3 3 0 7 1.45 0
3807 2.96 3 2 0 8 1.41 0
4203 2.85 3 3 0 8 1.45 0
3115 2.55 3 3 0 6 1.41 0
597 2.77 3 3 0 7 1.43 0
4269 2.59 3 3 0 6 1.24 0
2844 2.49 2 2 0 6 1.29 0
1778 2.46 2 2 0 8 1.35 0
2757 2.24 2 2 0 7 1.38 0
178 2.21 2 2 0 7 1.33 0
3860 2.01 2 1 0 5 1.29 0
1033 2.09 2 2 0 5 1.26 0
3941 2.10 2 2 0 7 1.31 0
|
