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-   -   Teams to Watch (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=105779)

SamMullen 19-04-2012 00:40
Re: Teams to Watch
 
I am so confused as to why so many people think the Newton division is "weak" or a "toss-up". By most metrics, some of, if not the most powerful teams in FIRST are on Newton. The average OPR for Newton is a point and a half higher than all the other fields. The modes* for OPR scores on Galileo, Archimedes, and Curie are respectively, 8, 5, and 10. The mode for Newton is 17. 1717, 469, 1983. There is no end to the list of powerhouses on this field. My money is that someone from Newton will win on Einstein.



*Im not entirely sure if the mode is even slightly relevant from a statistical standpoint, but it certainly looks impressive.

lemiant 19-04-2012 00:47
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamMullen (Post 1159937)
*Im not entirely sure if the mode is even slightly relevant from a statistical standpoint, but it certainly looks impressive.
In a large data set with many possible outcomes mode is not even a remotely significant metric. A simple intuitive test, do you actually think the average score on Newton will be 2.5 times the average score on Archimedes?

Andrew Lawrence 19-04-2012 00:53
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lemiant (Post 1159943)
In a large data set with many possible outcomes mode is not even a remotely significant metric. A simple intuitive test, do you actually think the average score on Newton will be 2.5 times the average score on Archimedes?
Yes.

Not really, but I think that Newton is going to definitely set some score records. I know it's against 67, 1114, 2056, etc., but in the perfect match (which could happen), there will be a ton of scoring, and in the end a high-score. I know* 1717 and 330 (I know 1717, and heard 330 from a student on the team) were working on making their scoring faster in the weeks before champs, so with them and all of the other already strong scorers, fast scoring will be something that we're going to see a lot of on Newton. Especially if 1717 shares their vision tracking code.

So, while I can't say for sure the average score in Newton will be higher than every other division, I think we'll see some records and high scores.

3098 callahan 19-04-2012 11:28
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by O'Sancheski (Post 1159807)
Here are my predictions for the Championship. I have decided to do alliance selections this year!
Archimedes:
1. 1114 2056 2557 W
2. 67 973 2815 F
3. 195 359 190 SF
4. 2826 2415 1816 SF
5. 126 234 1902 QF
6. 3747 1676 2046 QF
7. 1592 1218 1868 QF
8. 716 781 1261 QF
Curie:
1. 987 341 244 W
2. 624 233 1678 F
3. 694 254 58 SF
4. 1477 971 3929 SF
5. 1986 604 51 QF
6. 3205 461 3951 QF
7. 525 78 1511 QF
8. 3098 27 85 QF
Galileo:
1. 2337 25 103 F
2. 180 48 1038 W
3. 33 148 1212 SF
4. 16 399 1515 QF
5. 1718 2054 1323 SF
6. 1732 1538 2016 QF
7. 573 125 1918 QF
8. 237 1714 2377 QF
Newton:
1. 1717 469 2067 W
2. 330 118 3255 F
3. 111 610 3230 SF
4. 222 365 2200 QF
5. 548 2122 340 SF
6. 181 1023 329 QF
7. 1519 842 175 QF
8. 1126 191 45 QF
Einstein:
Archimedes: 1114 2056 2557 F
Curie: 987 341 244 SF
Galileo: 180 48 1038 SF
Newton: 1717 469 2067 W

Let me know what you guys think.
I think some of these teams are over estimated and some teams are under estimated but majority look good

xSAWxBLADEx 19-04-2012 16:04
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by O'Sancheski (Post 1159807)
Here are my predictions for the Championship. I have decided to do alliance selections this year!
Archimedes:
1. 1114 2056 2557 W
2. 67 973 2815 F
3. 195 359 190 SF
4. 2826 2415 1816 SF
5. 126 234 1902 QF
6. 3747 1676 2046 QF
7. 1592 1218 1868 QF
8. 716 781 1261 QF
Curie:
1. 987 341 244 W
2. 624 233 1678 F
3. 694 254 58 SF
4. 1477 971 3929 SF
5. 1986 604 51 QF
6. 3205 461 3951 QF
7. 525 78 1511 QF
8. 3098 27 85 QF
Galileo:
1. 2337 25 103 F
2. 180 48 1038 W
3. 33 148 1212 SF
4. 16 399 1515 QF
5. 1718 2054 1323 SF
6. 1732 1538 2016 QF
7. 573 125 1918 QF
8. 237 1714 2377 QF
Newton:
1. 1717 469 2067 W
2. 330 118 3255 F
3. 111 610 3230 SF
4. 222 365 2200 QF
5. 548 2122 340 SF
6. 181 1023 329 QF
7. 1519 842 175 QF
8. 1126 191 45 QF
Einstein:
Archimedes: 1114 2056 2557 F
Curie: 987 341 244 SF
Galileo: 180 48 1038 SF
Newton: 1717 469 2067 W

Let me know what you guys think.
You dont think 67 is going to be 1st seed? I think you under estimate michigan a little but I think you are right about the Curie and Newton winners.

3098 callahan 19-04-2012 16:42
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSAWxBLADEx (Post 1160181)
You dont think 67 is going to be 1st seed? I think you under estimate michigan a little but I think you are right about the Curie and Newton winners.
Hot might be 2nd with the tough competition in there division. I kinda have to agree with him on the one but it matters on your match list

qzrrbz 19-04-2012 16:46
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3098 callahan (Post 1160202)
Hot might be 2nd with the tough competition in there division. I kinda have to agree with him on the one but it matters on your match list
It's *all* about the match list!

Peter Matteson 19-04-2012 17:00
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSAWxBLADEx (Post 1160181)
You dont think 67 is going to be 1st seed? I think you under estimate michigan a little but I think you are right about the Curie and Newton winners.
I never underestimate HOT, but I have no faith in other teams. By intentionally not co-oping to bust up 67, 1114, and 2056. Seeding number 1 is not only up to those teams and if other teams act against them there is little recourse. I see this being like Newton 2006 when Aces seeded 1 and "scorched the earth" breaking up all the top teams.

lemiant 19-04-2012 17:05
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Matteson (Post 1160213)
I never underestimate HOT, but I have no faith in other teams. By intentionally not co-oping to bust up 67, 1114, and 2056. Seeding number 1 is not only up to those teams and if other teams act against them there is little recourse. I see this being like Newton 2006 when Aces seeded 1 and "scorched the earth" breaking up all the top teams.
This is an interesting point. If someone outside of those three seeds first, it seems possible that at least two of the three would decline in order to avoid the other two getting together.

nahstobor 19-04-2012 17:05
Re: Teams to Watch
 
1717. They are playing at a different level than everyone else.

xSAWxBLADEx 19-04-2012 17:05
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Matteson (Post 1160213)
I never underestimate HOT, but I have no faith in other teams. By intentionally not co-oping to bust up 67, 1114, and 2056. Seeding number 1 is not only up to those teams and if other teams act against them there is little recourse. I see this being like Newton 2006 when Aces seeded 1 and "scorched the earth" breaking up all the top teams.
177 WHY ARE YOU NOT ON THE CHAMPIONSHIP LIST??? FIRST made a mistake on this one...its going to be weird not seeing you guys there :/ you will be very missed.

jdunston94 19-04-2012 18:04
Re: Teams to Watch
 
just looking at it, it is understandable the 1st alliance captian, and their pick, that one i follow seeing as it is hard to change, however at most comps, the 2nd pick usually is up for grabs and is very hard to predict, like many have said before me, lots of teams are being under/over recognized

just my $.02

George Nishimura 19-04-2012 18:25
Re: Teams to Watch
 
I don't understand why people think that 67 will always pick 2056 over 1114 or why 1114 will pick 2056. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I would be surprised to see that if 67 or 1114 is first seed, that they won't pick each other. Especially considering both 1114 and 2056 are long-bots.

However, I wouldn't underestimate the level of competition in terms of qualifications on Archimedes, or any of the fields.

This is my first time watching Championship, so I'm excited by the level of competition, although a little less excited of having to keep a mental track of all the teams.

rcmolloy 19-04-2012 18:34
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnishi2011 (Post 1160250)
I don't understand why people think that 67 will always pick 2056 over 1114 or why 1114 will pick 2056. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but I would be surprised to see that if 67 or 1114 is first seed, that they won't pick each other. Especially considering both 1114 and 2056 are long-bots.

However, I wouldn't underestimate the level of competition in terms of qualifications on Archimedes, or any of the fields.

This is my first time watching Championship, so I'm excited by the level of competition, although a little less excited of having to keep a mental track of all the teams.
67 does always try to pick wide bots during eliminations. Well, at least their third all around pick. Can't wait to see how it plays out at Champs.

JoeWithTheSpecs 19-04-2012 19:13
Re: Teams to Watch
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by rcmolloy (Post 1160253)
67 does always try to pick wide bots during eliminations. Well, at least their third all around pick. Can't wait to see how it plays out at Champs.
A lot of their strategy is to out score and starve the other alliance. Even when we (548, 2054, and 245) got a triple balance at the Michigan State Championship finals we still lost to 469, 67 and 830. Although the score in that match was 111 to 80... But I'm on the fence of whether or not those kinds of scores will be common in Archi. On the one hand a lot of teams in archi will be able to score fast and accurately. On the other hand each alliance will constantly run to the other end of the field to get the balls from the other alliance. But nonetheless this will be an awesome division to watch and be a part of. I simply can't wait.


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