Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

111 was ranked 9th so 1771 did not select 111 as their first pick.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

That is correct, in theory.

However, 111 could see the intent and accept, allowing 254/1114 to ally. Throws a little wrench into strategy, doesn't it?

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

An alliance between 111/254/1114 was inevitably never going to happen. Even though 1114 was ranked outside the top 8, they were still the first choice for the first seeded team to pick and they had to accept.
Even if the first seeded team did not choose 111/254/1114 one of the 3 would have been snagged onto another alliance at the blink of an eye. Their robots were just too good last year to all have the chance to be on the same alliance.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

Yep, I meant any combination of the two, not an alliance made up of 111 254 and 1114, arguably the top 3 robots from that year. That would be absurd. Anyway, I guess the only way to have split up the 3 robots altogether would have been to select 254 and hope they wouldn't decline, which isn't relevant to this thread anyway.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

Well, why would 111 accept in the first place, if it meant going against 254 and 1114? I would think they would decline, hope that someone within the top 8 seeds would be picked so that they would become an alliance captain, and then form their own alliance.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

Doesn't really matter, as there was picking from within the top 8 in Galileo.

Picking 111 would have put them in a position where, if they accept, 254 and 1114 pair up and win, and if they decline, 1771 picks up 1114 and they get the 8th and 9th picks of the draft. Consider who 111 managed to pick from the 15th selection in the draft for a second and you can see the wisdom of going for the win from #8.

What incentive would 111 have to make an alliance that isn't their own better?

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

That's a decision they'd have to make, and anybody in the top 8 has to make.

You are a team in the top 8/9 teams. You are picked by the #1 alliance. Do you accept, and play hard against the powerhouses that get formed by the lack of a scorched-earth policy, or do you decline and take whatever you get from application of the scorched-earth policy, even if that is nothing due to being #9 when the scorched-earth goes through the entire top 8? Your call.

Short version, it's possible to accept just to block a scorched-earth picking. But doing that is a strategy that could bite you... Your choice.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

However, it would have been dangerous for 111 to decline. I would not want my elimination hopes riding on the selections of others. There was no guarantee that 111 would end up an alliance captain. It's easy to go and point to the fact that there was inter-8 picking, but beforehand, do you really want to take that chance?

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

Everyone knows that if a weaker team seeds first, the best thing they can do to increase their chance of winning is break up the powerhouses. What I'm wondering is: How often does this work? How often does the #1 alliance win when a "scorched earth" selection policy is enacted to break up the best teams?

I've only been to 2 events that alliance captain #1 wasn't one of the best teams and used its power to break up the best teams. Curie 2007 had 1732 seed first; they chose 1114 and 330 first to make sure they didn't get together, then picked 67. We made it through some very controversial semifinals matches but our run ended in the finals. The other competition was 2008 Great Lakes, where 66 seeded first and chose 27, 33, and 67 before choosing 217 who was outside the top 8. That great alliance (66, 217, 910) made a great run to the finals before losing to the #7 alliance partly because 217 sat cold in 2 of the matches.

So, how often does this "scorched earth" policy actually result in the #1 seed winning it all? Does anyone have an idea of the percentage? I know that this is the best tactic for a #1 alliance captain who isn't the best, but I'm just curious as to how often it works.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

I was the representative from 1771 during alliance selection in 2011 on Galileo.

111 was NOT in the top 8, and neither was 1114.

254 was 2nd seed, and if we had picked them, they would have declined, (and that is perfectly acceptable, they have the right to do so) which wouldn't have affected anything.
So we decided to go straight to 1114, who had to accept (or not play).
Unforuntaley for us, that led to 254 picking 111.

We knew that either an alliance of 254/111 or 254/1114 was going to happen. We hoped that 1771/1114 could beat 254/111.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

1114 and 111 were both outside of top 8, however consider these scenarios

1. 1771 picks 111. 111 accepts and then 254 picks 1114.
2. 1771 picks 111 but 111 declines. 1771 then picks 1114. 254 can't pick 111, so they select a top seeded alliance. 111 becomes an alliance captain, forcing 111, 254, and 1114 into separate alliances.

I'm not saying the choices teams would have had to make for this to happen would have been the best choices, but I do think that the second scenario isn't entirely unreasonable and that it was possible.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

You mean 1114 and 111 were both outside of top 8. Regardless, the rest of your argument holds.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

Except because 111 was not in the top 8, they wouldn't have declined.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

They were 9th seed, so they would have made it to top 8 after teams paired. It all comes down to whether 111 felt they had a better chance at winning from a low seed (such as 8th captain) with 254/1114 broken up, or if they felt that 111/1771 could have beaten 254/1114. Either is quite possible.

Re: Disrupting Alliances
 

And 1771 was first seed.

If 1771 picks 254, 254 declines. No big loss, as they are #2 seed.

If 1771 picks 111, they won't decline, since they aren't in the top 8.

If 1771 picks 1114, they won't decline, since they aren't in the top 8.

The only way 111 would have made it into the top 8 would be if 1771 picked someone else from the top 8. (During the first picking, obviously)