Chief Delphi - Predictions Championship 2012: Where Amazing Happens

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Predictions Championship 2012: Where Amazing Happens

Nothing can ever quite describe it correctly. The most brilliant adjectives are too dull to capture it. In that moment, everything else is washed away. It's the feeling that makes grown men cry, fans stampede into city streets, and leaves the most eloquent among us speechless. It's the feeling that only three of four hundred will feel this weekend.

Victory.

The preparations are over. Throw out the regional season, it doesn't matter anymore. One hundred teams in each division get a clean slate to try and leave their lasting mark on the FIRST world. After all the work put in over the past months, everything will hinge on two minute spurts over the course of three days. There aren't any more second chances. Execute or go home.

Thanks, once again, to team 1114 for their incredible spreadsheet.
http://i.imgur.com/BEDAH.jpg?1

Top 25
Top 10 Breakdown:
Archimedes - 3
Curie - 3
Galileo - 1
Newton - 3

Top 25 Breakdown:
Archimedes - 6
Curie - 7
Galileo - 4
Newton - 8

As with seemingly every year, there is some imbalance between divisions. Yet, it's not to the point where any division should be written off or any crowned beforehand. Each division has enough top contenders and enough depth to field an alliance capable of winning Einstein. Yes, even Curie.

Ask any athlete, once you reach the top levels of competition you cannot win on talent alone. The same applies here, as it takes supreme and consistent execution in order to add up qualification points and advance in the tournament. In the high stakes world of the elimination tournament mistakes can prove dire. A failed balance has obvious ramifications, but moving to the bridge too soon will prove costly as well. No longer will alliances be able to afford 45 seconds to balance in every match. On the fly decisions of when to balance and how many robots to send will be absolutely critical, and it correct call will vary significantly from match to match.

The overall strategy will have common themes on every field, but each field (and each alliance) will have a bit of its own personality. We've seen that different game plans can prove successful. At the highest level, teams will have to be flexible and be able to follow the balls. Crossover play (and crossover defense) will be critical, especially when alliances play a "possession" game rather than "run and gun." Human player loading will take on a bigger role than before, as possession teams often will not risk an intercepted or misfired inbound pass. Due to the recycled, but limited quantity, of game pieces, getting an early lead will be huge. Thus, hybrid will be huge. An early lead forces the other alliance to try and speed up its game to make up ground and forces them to return balls into play faster than they might otherwise.

It doesn't take three robots scoring to put up huge scores in this game. In fact, many elite teams can clean up the front court by themselves. This can free up partners to do the "dirty work" of slowing down the opponent, feeding balls forward, drawing penalties, and manipulating bridges. That's not to say scoring depth won't be important, as well timed defense and ball starvation tactics can put a dent into just about any scoring machines output. Getting balls to the most accurate shooters in a given situation, both in hybrid and teleop, will become increasingly important as the competition wears on.

The obvious trade off debate will be the triple balance. Not every alliance will be capable of it, and there will be cases where alliances opt not to go for it despite being able. It doesn't take three "wide" bots to complete, nor even two if the "long" bots are capable of overhanging properly or turning on the bridge. Especially for alliance captains that have their own "stingers" or other triple facilitating devices, wide vs. long might not be a huge debate. But in fields as large as these, there will be plenty of wide options that can hang tight with their longer counterparts, and many captains might decide to go with the "sure thing" when it comes to the triple.

Triple balancing, or actively defending the opponent's triple (and exposing yourself to the judgement of the reffing crew), will be all but essential at the highest levels of play. Sure, there are a handful of teams out there with the capability of knocking down 21+ points in baskets in the last 30 seconds of a match. But they're the exception to the rule, and more importantly, there have yet to be any who have shown they can do that two out of every three matches. The ball economy simply doesn't support it on a regular enough basis. Beyond that, the best of the best are going to be cutting their triple times shorter and shorter. Teams like HOT, Las Guerillas, and Miss Daisy have shown just how quickly and reliably a triple balance can be completed with the right partners.

Ultimately, the winning alliance will be well rounded, flexible, robust, and lucky. Eliminations matches are as much about survival as they about beating the opponent. The winners will have relatively few failures along the way, and we be able to respond well to whatever is thrown at them. The alliance will not be critically dependent on fender scoring, human player in-bounding, crossing over a particular field element, or a single machine. If they are, an opponent will recognize it and take it away from them. Balance, in more than one way, will be the key to victory.

Each division will have it's own prediction thread, but here's a layout of how they will work. "Tips", "locks", "dark horses", and "sleepers" will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that's guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse is a team that has played very well all year but hasn't generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven’t been able to put it all together yet, but have some potential to shine in St. Louis if they can play well. As always, if you don't like the predictions, go out there and prove them wrong.