2012 IRI Predictions
 

You can see the invites here, look over them, and decided your prediction for the FIRST All Star Game.

I cast my votes:
But to keep the other thread less cluttered, here's an open thread for your thoughts.
By all means, contradict me and prove me wrong. Nothing would make my summer better than that :)

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Just to address a point you make in one of your posts, the second pick as a wide robot that primarily feeds balls from one end of the field to another isn't a new strategy that debuted at the Championship. It's been present ever since some innovative teams dreamed it up Week 1 :)

At this event, picking a feeder first round would be stupid. There's too much firepower on the board to do that, and as 16 demonstrated at Champs, an offensive robot can become a feeder robot very quickly. I think there will be more wide bots picked in the 4th round as triple-balance substitutions as a form of insurance though.

If 2826 falls to even the 9th pick at IRI, either they weren't playing at their Championship level or something went seriously wrong with regards to scouting. They are definitively on the same tier as 1114, 67, and 469, and I bet if you counted it out ball for ball they would have been the best ball scorer in the Archimedes elims.

As for predicting IRI... Well, that's probably impossible. It's too dependent on scheduling. Just get some popcorn and watch the madness unfold is what I say.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

If I recall, all three of your picks (1114, 469, and 2826) are long bots. Granted there will be a 4th robot, the triple would be all but ruled out unless the 4th was a wide bot.

Food for thought...

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

1114 is a long but can hang off significantly, 469 is practically a 27" square, and 2826 is long. I think they can hang though. They at least tried hanging at Champs.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Anyone find the gap from 1114 to 1538 a little strange? What happened to all the teams in that area? The only teams from that range I can immediately think of are 1477, 1323 and 1429. I don't know if 1429 or 1323 applied (I know 1477 didn't), but it's weird that teams from that period haven't had as much perceived success.

There isn't a gap that large anywhere else, pretty much everything is fairly even.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

These teams didn't apply. RC from 1323 will be attending though.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I believe that that, besides the usual suspects, one team that should perform at a very high level in the eliminations is 2481. Other teams that could surprise people are 829 and 1023. Of the "obvious teams," my top picks have to be 341, 67, 2056, and 1114.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Lets hope Adam, gets a completely new drive team to the level of the seasoned one.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Keep in mind that many teams may be using a new drive team. Depending on the students and the school, 2012 seniors may not be a part of the team.

Our seniors are now alumni, so we will have a new driver and operator. Many others may be in that same situation.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Playing on Archimedes, I would have to say come eliminations 2826 appeared to be the absolute top offensive robot. It was amazing the efficiency that they were scoring with. They do have trouble hanging off the ramp though but I'm sure can get that worked out for IRI.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

With the 5 extra pounds of weight that IRI allows, just about any robot that wants to can come up with a way to triple balance. Balancing two or more long robots will still be a challenge, but stingers/brakes are pretty easy additions for just about any type of robot.

FYI our scouting actually had the two top scoring teams as 2826 and 2056 in that order.

Not to bring out old wounds, but I suggest you watch archi F3, 2826 lost the division because they can't triple reliably. Although I have a lot of faith they will have a stinger and that all figured out come IRI.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

111 has the same policy.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I have "simulated" IRI using each team's best regional/divisional OPR (tiebreaker: average OPR from Ed Law's post-Championship spreadsheet). I assumed "optimal" play - the teams seed according to OPR, and pick the highest OPR team available in every situation (keeping in mind the 1-8, 1-8, 8-1 IRI selection order). Here are the alliances that I ended up with (also making the assumption that all invited teams do attend):

#1: 2056 - 469 - 25 - 340
#2: 341 - 118 - 1023 - 111
#3: 2826 - 67 - 330 - 3322
#4: 1114 - 33 - 3098 - 971
#5: 548 - 359 - 744 - 829
#6: 148 - 254 - 2054 - 1676
#7: 973 - 624 - 16 - 2168
#8: 2481 - 868 - 68 - 399

All predictions are guaranteed to be wrong, or your money back.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

We had a stinger at champs. We also trippled many times and quickly on the practice field during lunch before elims started. We have no idea why we couldnt triple on the actual field.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

WOW! That is one monster of a list! I am even more excited about IRI now!

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Can you clarify Chris; I assume UOS all 2012 rules apply. 2.2.3 says the the drivers and human player must be pre-college student team members. You don't allow alumni to be members of the team, even as mentors? It seems that it would be still be legal for them to drive if they haven't started college, but it is the individual team's choice as to whether they drive or not, correct?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Gary,
In some school districts, graduates are no longer included in the school roster, they cannot participate in school activities and are not covered under insurance, travel or hotel stays. That is the case with our graduates. They can travel on their own, make their own hotel plans and attend post season events strictly on their own. Team policy does not allow them to drive once they graduate. They become adult mentors upon graduation only if they meet some criteria. One of those is "currently attending a college or university with acceptable grades".

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

48's senior drive team will be there and driving. They've earned it, and at IRI, I feel we want to bring the very best to compete against the very best.

We can afford to do this because we attend Ra-Cha-Cha Ruckus in the fall. The new drive team will get their feet wet there. :)

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

It may be different on other teams, but on 1126, off season events like IRI are not school sanctioned events. We pay for admission, we provide our own transportation (parent volunteers for the most part), things like that. When I went to IRI in 2011 as a member of 1126, I had graduated, but was allowed to take part of it.

Also, I can't remember where I read it, but I believe there was an IRI rule that said drive team members had to be pre-college students or students who had graduated in the 2011 school year.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

When IRI had mentor matches, there were driver rules which limited the youth of the driver. However, we have no added rules for the regular matches. Some teams treat this like their seniors' "last hurrah", while others make their seniors not be part of the team. This is up to the teams, not IRI.

Andy B.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

This is certainly how 2337 operates. After Championship in 2011, our seniors graduated, and I came in as the driver for the offseason. With that said, we also attended two competitions before IRI last year - The TARDEC Intelligent Ground Vehicle Competition and the Monroe Advanced Robotics Competition - so the situation is still slightly different than with teams who may or may not be putting drivers with no actual competition experience on the field for IRI.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Is it just me or does the number 2 alliance seem to be more powerful than the number 1?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

On 341 we treat this as our senior's "last chance to dance". :)

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Only one way to find out! :p

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

They seem to be VERY comparable. 2056-341 are two top-notch scorers, but 341 may have the edge. 469-118 goes to 469, 25-1023 could go either way, since both are stellar, and I think 340-111 actually goes to 340. Both are killer alliances, and any matches pitting one against the other would be sure to include some incredible fireworks. The disparity between #1 & #2 in my mind is the number of long bots. Where 25 and 1023 are fairly comparable, 25 is long with no stabilization device (at least at CMP) while 1023 is wide and possesses a "stinger" (with that said, their 4-wheel-drive makes it nearly impossible to hang very much of their robot off the end of the bridge. Watch any of quarterfinal 3 at the Michigan State Championship and you'll see the rather painful truth there) I think for pure shooting power, #1 is my favorite, while for balancing potential, I give #2 a slight edge

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

1023 has their "Nessie" sticker from Detroit district -- 4 times if memory serves... :)

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Having competed with at least 10 of these teams during our 5 tournament stint this year, I personally can't wait to see these qualification matches, let alone eliminations!

I would predict 2056 and 1114 pairing up yet again, and forming an alliance that defeated our teams in both the semifinals and finals at the Waterloo Regional.

I could also see 67 and 469 pairing up once again, forming the two alliance partners that brought us the winners banner at Troy District this year.

This is going to be a great competition, hopefully I can get a ride down!

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Pre-"Stinger" even... we added that after Detroit. We used it on the practice field in Livonia but didn't feel we needed the triple in the end. Definitely a couple of new options with an extra 5 pounds... we'll see what we can do! Really looking forward to finding out first hand what IRI is all about!

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Our team's biggest issue was not being able to add an appendage to collect balls, due to weight constraint. With 5lbs more, we definitely plan on adding one that we have already designed............and just got our robot back 1 hr. ago from CMP.
If I had 1st choice, I'd take 118 due to our experience together already and a triple balance threat. We already showed high scoring consistency and worked well together in not interfering with each other during shots taken.

Well actually, just making eliminations at IRI is already a huge accomplishment and hopefully we can be part of a great alliance to go for the 3-peat.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

This is a Cyber Blue / school rule. Once students graduate, they are no longer students on the team. They cannot travel as students anymore and we start the transition to new students and new student leaders.

For IRI, they have to be no older than 2012 graduated seniors.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I predict that little-known 907 will put up one of the quietest 1.5 hybrid + 7 teleop baskets per match + consistent balancing performances at the event. Statistically, they will have a top 15 performance in terms of points scored, but still may not be picked for the elims...:(

If they are picked, they'll make an alliance awfully happy :yikes:.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I'm sad that with no talent show we won't see "daisy style"

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

If you don't mind me saying, while they're very similar, I found Most Recent OPR was a better predictor than Best OPR at the 2012 CMP. Of course, there's no guarantee that will also be the case at IRI. Either way, I'm continuing to do research and plan to go into past years as well. This may turn into a white paper, eventually.

As for the issue of new drive teams, my predictions were based statistically on the regular season+CMP, so they assume the same drive teams will be used. Just another failing of statistics. :)

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Anybody else notice that there's no pink on this list... I checked OPRNet and it said their OPR was ~27 in Curie, you more think that would be more than enough, but 340 has 28 in newton. Only 1 Florida team on this list :( but that's ok predictions can never be right.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Here is the same list using Most Recent OPR as the sorting mechanism (tiebreaker: Average OPR from the Ed Law spreadsheet):

#1: 2056 - 341 - 2054 - 192
#2: 118 - 2826 - 68 - 379
#3: 33 - 148 - 25 - 2590
#4: 254 - 548 - 469 - 233
#5: 973 - 2481 - 1676 - 3138
#6: 868 - 1023 - 829 - 781
#7: 67 - 744 - 340 - 3193
#8: 624 - 1114 - 111 - 1718

Same caveat as before: All predictions wrong, or your money back!

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I think the real show could see 16 going a little earlier, as we've all seen that OPR can be overrated--especially for them.

I would also expect 548 to even be a little higher than they are on that list--they're just so strong across the board.

This is interesting. I would actually expect a few teams going up from the previous list, not down. Up and down, however, depends on how you value higher 1st pick vs. lower alliance captain. How do you rank those? Is 1st pick overall the 2nd highest, or 9th? And is 2nd alliance captain 2nd ranked or 3rd?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I assumed all teams seed according to the OPR metrics listed in the respective posts. I assumed #1 seed always picks #2, #3 picks #4, etc. - at all times, the team "on the clock" picks the highest OPR team available in the pool. The selection order is 1-8, 1-8, 8-1, as previously noted.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I'll take that alliance, but i can't imagine 469 falling to a second pick or 233 as a back up!

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Hey all - as long as we are all enjoying eating our pie in the sky (I hear pie goes well with ice cream...), here's a different flavor for you:

This pick list is generated by sorting the IRI invitees by Ed Law's post-championship Worldrank. 1 picks 2, 3 picks 4, yadda yadda yadda.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

We have a stinger. We did not have the weight for it at champs. But the question really is, do we need a stinger?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

That certainly depends. In the scenario outlined, it would certainly be beneficial, where another long 'bot is present. However, I concede that it is not always necessary, especially considering the amount of length your robot is capable of extending over the end of the bridge.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I will make sure the stinger comes along for the ride. I would hate to not be picked because we left it at home.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Wow. I just noticed that. I would definitely see 469 going in the 1st 4 picks or being a captain. 233 is definitely in the top 2 rounds, and both 1114 and 111 seem to have fallen a little far in Jared341's latest simulation.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Ouch, apparently 68's World Rank sucks. I'm guessing it factors in data from before Worlds?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Yes, Ed Law's Database includes all events attended per team.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Just to throw out my 2 cents, since this bothers me a little each time i see "rather painful truth" reposted.. :D 1023 DID balance in QF3 with you .. and everyone was on their feet screaming for the double triple... then the power went off for the end of match.. and the ball wedged between the two of you pushed you off the balance making the triple not count. So, I'm not sure I agree with your "rather painful truth" :D We balanced 4 times in Detroit without the stinger, we balanced on several practice fields, and had the ball not been wedged between you two, we would have balanced at states. :D We enjoyed playing with you at states, and look forward to seeing you at upcoming events. Maybe we will have a chance to retry that balance again.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

That'd do it, we were absolutely horrible before we redesigned our shooter before Worlds.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I'd like to think of it as a decent measure of extended consistency across many matches and events.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

If you've seen 25's weight distribution in person, you'll find that a stinger isn't exactly needed in most scenarios.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Debbie, I would have to say missing that triple balance was more our fault then 1023s. We should have seen that ball and cleared it out of the way.

Per usual your team has a great robot and is always fun to play with behind the glass. I look forward to seeing your team at almost all of our off season events (IGVC, MARC, IRI, and Kettering!?).

Also for the off season events we have some Rumble Pi that we are adding to our bot to help prevent the problem we had at MSC.

-Clinton-

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I think it was a great first attempt for our alliance. Not sure you could've seen that ball if you tried. I didn't even notice it in the stands after you were up. Had to ask Nick what happened because we were all balanced and still and then poof, we were tumbling. Hard to believe that a little nerf ball can push that big bot. (darn physics) LOL I wish we would have been able to advance further and play more with you! But definitely looking forward to that opportunity this summer. :)

We are trying to decide how best to use our 5 pounds also. Adding extra wheels is certainly something we have contemplated, even for worlds, but our autonomous was running so well, we didn't want to risk messing that up. Now that we have time to tinker, the team is trying to make a decision which add on would be best. Plus, waiting to see if we have additional weight at MARC or not before we dig in too much.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

With a field of shooters this deep, I have only one prediction / word of advice:

Pick 16 in the first round or get ready to be beaten by them.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Word.

Ya can't shoot 'em if ya ain't got 'em.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I think that 68 is going to surprise everyone at IRI, just like they did on Newton. We were running a strategy where 68 did all the shooting and 330 and us (639) stayed back feeding, almost 1717 esque. It was the same strategy that 1717/330 used to win CVR. In the semifinal match that we played against them where everyone was working, 68 managed to match most of 1717's shooting. I'm still not sure why 469 was doing exclusive feeding throughout much of elims.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

We're still working on the last couple things, and hoping to up our game even more for IRI. It looks like the plans include a new Driver Station, definitely not fitted with the Classmate.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

16 was certainly good at the strategy they played in the championship elims, but any number of good shooters could do the exact same thing well. IRI is full of such teams.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

But their maneuverability and their consistant autonomous sets the Bomb Squad apart.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I'm curious to see how 16 plays in qualification matches at IRI. The championship ended very well for them, but I'm sure they aren't too pleased with their offensive showing. Don't forget that they were one of the 5-10 best offensive robots before the championship. Will they take the time this summer to fine tune their shooter or just play the feeding role at IRI?

I tend not to put too much effort into trying to predict IRI results. Too many teams use brand new drivers and there are some differences in how serious take the event. (everyone trys to win, but some teams prepare for it like its the championship with a full practice schedule).

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I don't see why people are so convinced one robot has to feed. I realize there is a limited number of balls this year, but 3 scorers is better then 2... but only if your smart.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

The thought is that there will be too much traffic and alliance members will start bumping into each other while shooting, and everyone will waste time crossing the field (I'm not fully convinced either). It could work, however.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I agree. I've ranked the main strategies I've seen by level of how difficult they appear to be.

1. 3 shooters (Offensive Option)
This requires timing and strategy, you can't have 3 robots all trying to fire simultaneously. Optimally there'd be 1 robot shooting, 1 robot lining up/getting into position, and 1 robot collecting balls at any given moment.
Difficult, but not impossible.

2. "Full Court Press" - 1 shooter, 2 feeders (Defensive Option)
This was a strategy that we deployed during the Newton eliminations, coined by 330/639. Essentially you have 2 robots on the opposing side of the field feeding one main shooter on your side of the field. This keeps the balls away from your opponents and on your side of the field.
Medium, Greatly increases your chance of getting penalties due to defense.

3. 1 feeder 2 shooters (Offensive Option)
This strategy was used quite often during eliminations. It allowed you to almost always having a robot trying to score, and keeps some of the balls away from your opponents.
Easy, Less timing then #1 and less chance of penalties then #2.

Thoughts?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

My (improbable) Predictions:

118 seeds second, snags 341, 2054, 234, in that order. Plays the #1 seed 2056, 67, 548, and 27 alliance in the finals and #2 wins after losing the first match.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

We are assuming that 548 (1st seed and Winners of Newton) are making it back to 2nd pick?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Anything can happen at IRI...

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Simbotics lost last year anything can happen.....

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Like they said. Anything can happen. 548 may fall down the list for being a primary fender shooter. That being said, if they can get their key shooting up to the level of a bot designed for key shooting (like 469, 67, 1114, etc...), that may not happen. But great robots have a tendency to not get picked early on at IRI. Only the best robots get picked early on at IRI.

For example, 2016 last year. Number one seed and winner on Archimedes. Fell to the last pick of the regular draft (second pick of 8th alliance). It's not that they were bad. They were amazing. But at IRI, amazing is good and perfect is great.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I think it's more "perfection is the expectation"

Anyways, on the prediction side, it's a little rocky to make the prediction, but it's sure as heck fun to watch them unfold in anticipation for the big event.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

67 and 217 were both second round picks last year. 548's a great team, but even great teams get drafted late or skipped altogether at IRI.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

We defiantly prefer the fender, but teams stopped defending us after we made some improvements.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

We tried our best, but once you got the key shooting down we couldn't stop you.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

This thread has been dead a little too long so...

The winning alliance will have how many long/wide bots?
Will all alliances be able to triple balance and if not, do they stand a chance?
What will the Coop bridge % be durring qualifications?
Will we finnaly see the super starve strategy (6 with hp 9 on robots and 2 on bridge)?
Will any long bots go as a third pick?

My guesses,
1 long 2 wide
All will be able to, if not there is no chance
90%
No, people like scoring more
Only if there's already 3 wide bots on the alliance

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

At least 2 wide. A two long triple balance is sometimes possible, but the 3rd round allows for teams to pick another wide as a backup and determine which teams would best fit on the bridge together.

Yes, the triple balance will be mandatory if the Championship ruling on defense is kept (which, IMO, it should be). With 4 robots, it's too easy to form an alliance that can do it.

Barring rule changes, 90%.

Probably not to that extent, since robots have to drive on that bridge...

Moreso than at the Championship because teams may have a 4th pick in their pocket :P

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I'll try my hat at some of these:

2 wide, 1 long robot certainly would be most likely. I, however, feel that the winning alliance will actually be 2 long, 1 wide.

I'm still not sure how we define "able to triple balance", but I think we'll see at least one alliance advance past the quarterfinals without triple balancing. I don't see an alliance winning IRI without tripling at least once, however. Though, Einstein was won on double balances. So I wouldn't say it's impossible. Smart alliance may see the advantage of scoring the heck out of a match and doubling versus taking the risk of tripling, much like 1717 often did in matches (score as much as possible while their partners balanced).

I'd expect a 98% coop balance, if not 100%. There will be an attempt every match, and maybe a slip up or two. But considering the overall quality of team's at IRI, the general consensus that cooping is necessary to compete well, and the number of teams who will probably be practicing balancing and possibly even installing stingers/balancing aids of some kind, balancing on the coop bridge will be a very common occurance.

I don't see that starving strategy really being effective. Teams of IRI caliber could make much better use of those balls by putting them to use in hoops. I think you'll see it attempted at least once, and that match will be extremely slow, but I don't think one alliance will be able to control every ball. Especially since getting balls from the alliance bridge in hybrid seems to be a huge advantage for an alliance, and will be attempted more.

Absolutely. But I doubt it will be because of their orientation. Great teams go to the third pick all the time, so I think long robots will absolutely go to the third pick. But wide robots will, too.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I doubt that getting the Co-op bridge in hybrid will be as big as in other competitons. Since only 2 balls will most likely be on the bridge at once (most robots will have their balls in the robot).

I do expect more feeding to happen and a few robots get the balls off the alliance bridge and score them. Either way Hybrid will be not as big of a part of the game as in other competitions. I actually think the only really different part will be Teleop. But we'll have to wait and see about that.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Guess 5 ball autonomous modes are a thing of the past now. Darn. Oh well.

Anyways, I'd say that the 2 wide, 1 long sounds like a pretty good pairing, though with 1717 running swerve and 469 being a square, it's hard to classify them when they win... :rolleyes:

As said before, with a 4 bot alliance, they'll be able to triple, but only if it is to their advantage to do so. As one of our mentors said, rather optimistically,

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I find that an interesting hypothesis.

It seems to me Hybrid will be a huge part of the game, especially when it comes to acquiring and scoring balls from the alliance and coopertition bridge. If you have two alliances, both capable of hitting all 6 preloaded balls in Hybrid (like I'm sure will happen quite often), then acquiring an extra 24 points (12 from the coop, 12 from the alliance) seems like it would be huge. You start out teleoperated with your opponents in a 24 point hole that they have to climb out of. A very nice advantage to start with.

I'd like to hear your reasoning behind saying Hybrid will be less important. I definitely find it to be an interesting statement.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I can/will expand on this later but for now...

Alliance A: gets the Co-op bridge balls
Alliance B: doesnt get alliance bridge balls

1. You said that there would be a 24 point difference. But who said that alliance B doesnt get the 2 balls from their allaince bridge and scores those for 12 points. the the differnece is only a MAX of 12 points.

2. When Alliance A scores their 2 extra balls, then Allaince B (human players) has control of those balls and Hopefully delivers those balls to their side of the field. Helping them score more. Assuming the score is tied and they score those balls the score will be 6 point difference now for Alliance A.

At this point Aliance B only is losing by 6. Easy enough to come back from. Then it comes down to the remaining Teleop and the Bridge Points.

Notice that most of this was displayed at GTR west when 1114 and 2056 played against eachother. (meaning when delsivering balls and easily coming back from losing in hybrid) the alliance bridge was not yet perfected.

Remember this will most likely not happen but also realize that hybrid will not be everything.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Yeah, you just have to make sure the field knocks out the third robot of all the alliances that needed to triple balance. :P

I wouldn't use Einstein as an indicator for the style of play you'd see at IRI for that reason. The Archimedes finals I think are a great example of how IRI may end up playing out.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Of course Hybrid won't be everything. There is never a part of a game that is "everything".

So, using your terms, we'll say this:
Alliance A gets from the Coop Bridge and the Alliance Bridge
Alliance B gets from the Alliance Bridge

It's true, that if Alliance A gets Coop and Alliance bridge balls, and Alliance B gets their alliance balls, then there is only a 12 point spread. But still, I'd rather be up 12 points than tied.

And again, yes, then Human Players B will be in control of some extra balls. But if Alliance A puts in 10 balls in 15 seconds, that's a bit for those human players to sort through with their 6 ball maximum. So there's a chance that they'll have to just drop some, or even incur some penalties.

Even if that doesn't happen, if Alliance A puts in 10 balls, and Alliance B puts in 8, then the score is 60 to 48, in favor of Alliance A. Alliance A has 8 balls being sent to them by their human players, Alliance B has 10. If all those balls get put in, Alliance A will have 60 + 3(8) = 84. And Alliance B will have 48 + 3(10) = 78. Still in favor of Alliance A. Then, repeating the cycle after that, Alliance A will have 10 balls coming to them, and Alliance B will have 8. Alliance A can get a score of 84 + 3(10) = 114, while Alliance B gets 78 + 3(8) = 102. Again, favor to Alliance A.

At that point, Alliance B NEEDS a triple balance. With a double balance or less, Alliance A just needs to balance one robot to get the win. It still does come down to balancing, but Alliance B NEEDS to get that triple right, which causes more pressure, which, of course, causes mistakes. If it's a qualification round where triple balances are scored the same a double balances, hope for Alliance B looks very dim.

Normally, I wouldn't operate under the assumption that all Human Players get every ball across the field, and every balls gets put in each time, but at IRI, the caliber of many alliance will allow that.

I feel as though something in my logic is a bit off, but it seems to me that, any way you slice it, getting from the Coop and Alliance bridge is a huge advantage.

I'd definitely agree about using Einstein. I was just pointing out that you don't need to triple to win at a high level. But you're definitely right on that one.

As for Archimedes, I'd definitely agree on that one as well. The matches are going to be "shooting-and-scoring" extravaganzas, and it's going to come down to who can lock the right balance.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Yea I understand what you are saying. But that is in a perfect match, but again the hybrid i mentioned is a perfect hybrid.

I guess we can both agree that IRI will be crazy!

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Is it ever not?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Well I only got to see a little bit of last years, and this is my first time getting to go, sooo i guess i Dont know :P But i hear is awesome ;)

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Absolutely! Competition at IRI is ALWAYS intense and insane! I can't wait to see how things play out.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

UNLESS, the FMS dies... :$

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

If the field gives out at IRI, I'm rage quitting FIRST. Okay, well... Maybe not. But I'll write a strongly worded letter to SOMEBODY!

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

These I could see being a little different.

Alliances that double and leave a fantastic (even by IRI standards) shooter to have free reign on the field could be able to score 7 balls (21 points) in 30 seconds, or 10 seconds a clip (likely more like 12-12-6 seconds if the last reload is less than 3 balls). That would make up for the triple balance. But everyone probably will be able to, yes.

Coop percentage might be lower than 90%--I would expect 83-85%--because, with the field being so strong, everybody will be trying to outscore each other in Teleop, they will start stretching the limits of how fast the Coop can happen, and they will start failing. The first third of Qualification Matches will probably have a Coop rate of 84-86%, the second third will see a 6-8 point increase in score per alliance, but a Coop rate of more like 77-79%. The final third will see match scores fall back to that of the early matches, and even 2-4 points lower, and the Coop rate rise to 88-90% as teams push to Coop more reliably, remembering its importance in the standings. The Coop Attempt rate will likely be around 99%, but some attempts will just not pan out for various reasons.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

If the field gives out at IRI, I think FRC HQ will get word very quickly via more official channels. Along with the diagnosis of as many people who deal with that sort of thing for a living as happen to be there and looking over the field...

But I'm hopeful that the weekend testing went well enough for FIRST to at least replicate the error(s), and better than that, find out how to stop it for good.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

My post was more of a joke. I'm hoping we'll find the case to be an isolated incident with the Einstein field, and that the field used at most off season events will be more than able to put on the matches we'd expect to see at IRI. If the weekend's diagnostics from FIRST goes well, I'm sure we won't see a problem going into IRI. If they don't provide any conclusive results... Well, that's a problem.

But I'm optimistic that field problems will be resolved going into IRI (even if I have no reason to be optimistic). And I wouldn't be surprised if some FIRST personnel are on-hand at IRI, just in case. I'm sure FIRST is at least a little embarrassed about what happened on Einstein, and, even if IRI isn't an official FIRST sanctioned event, will want everything to be perfect at the biggest off-season event of the year as sort of a redemption.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I definitely agree 21 pts is possible in 30 seconds (1717 proved it). However, I see triples at IRI, where most teams will probably have some form of balance assist, taking closer to the 15-20 sec. range. And I can't see anyone scoring 20 pts in 15 seconds.
I think at least 2 alliances won't triple, but i believe the winner will. All alliances will have one long, and half will have 2 longs somewhere on the alliance.
Fourth picks will be interesting. I think some alliances will need a wide here to make a triple posible, while others will pick up great robots neglected due to a need for wide bots. That brings up another question. Is the field too deep to pick up a great long bot second and third round, sacrifice the triple, and hope its enough? Or are you not gaining enough over choosing from the crop of already picked-over wide bots?

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

I think there will be a field plenty deep enough to find wide bots that can be very beneficial during at least the second round. Remember that playing defense (think 16) is going to be just as important as scoring, and finding a great defensive team relies much more on having a good drive team and inter-team chemistry than a first-round scorer, where the robot is critical.

So I think alliances will be able to satisfy their needs with a wide bot, so I don't think there is much to gain taking a long bot with the second or third pick. You would generally take a scorer in the first round, and that's the only role I see a long bot filling. IRI will be made in the last two rounds--there are more than enough teams to create eight incredible pairs up top.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Here's my best shot at who's long/ wide...
Long- 25, 27, 48, 111, 125, 192 217, 233, 254, 269, 292, 330, 340, 359, 379, 447, 461, 548, 573, 772, 744 781, 971, 1114, 1538, 1676, 1902, 2054, 2056, 2337, 2614 2826, 3310 3138, 3193, 3947
Wide- 33, 45, 51, 67, 68, 118, 148, 234, 245, 269, 292 341, 399, 829, 907, 1023, 1024, 1592, 1714, 1718, 1730, 1732, 2168, 2194, 2481, 2590, 2834, 2949, 3098, 3322, 3357, 3940 4334
Swerve- 16, 71, 973, 1640
Square- 469, 868
Mecanum- 503, 1741

counts: Long 36
Wide:33
Swerve: 4
Square: 2
Mecanum:2
I don't know (need some help): 0

Hopefully I got everyone on the list somewhere!

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Long - 379, 772, 781, 3138, 3193, 1592, 2614
Wide - 1714, 1730, 907
Swerve - 192 I think

971 is not a swerve. They're a longbot.

-Nick

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Long: 772, 781

Wide: 907, 1730, 3940

EDIT: Seems Nick beat me to it.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Long: 1676, 1902
Wide: 2590
Swerve: 1640
Square: 868

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

To add to the lists:

Long - 447, 624, 744, 1741
Wide - 269, 292, 2481, 2949, 3940

Also, 192 is a long bot, not a swerve. I checked a picture of them, they have an 8 wheel drive.

Now, the only teams left unknown are 461, 829, and 3947.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

461 is long.
829 is wide.
3947 is long.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

That was fast. Thanks CD. Now to start transferring to exel. Sigh.

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

Does nobody care about us because we're long? :(

Re: 2012 IRI Predictions
 

2168 is long.