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16, 118, 148, 233, 359, 1114, 2056 |
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For some interesting stats (note: taken from FIRST site which tends to have some erroneous data, but should be close enough). Between these six teams there are: 55 Regional Wins 21 Regional Finalists 14 Division Wins 5 Championship Wins Incredible! |
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An interesting point is raised: what would be an equitable method of allocating CMP slots to a district? Right now we have only 2 district systems, but what happens when there are a dozen? Are districts like FIM doomed to be forever frozen to three regionals' worth of slots?
C'mon, we're smart people, surely we can solve this? |
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Once everyone is at a district system, I say we go by proportions. These proportions can change throughout time.
For example MI has 207 out of 2560 teams (8.086%). Besides the teams that already qualified for things such as Einstein 2012, HoF, sustaining teams, etc, there is 367 slots. In a perfect world, we should also get that percentage of teams at CMP. This year, we would get about 30 teams plus pre-qualified teams. That number looks much better than the 18 we currently get. Now on the other hand, CA would get fewer spots. Under that same system, they would have 31 spots. This is fewer than their current 36. |
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Now, when there are so many districts that 6*regions is greater than the reasonable capacity of Championship...we'll have to have a long look in the mirror. |
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You could add two columns fairly easily, I think. One that shows the number of CMP slots allocated to each area now, and one that shows the difference between an all-district allocation and the one we have now. |
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There is (and has been for several days now) 207 teams in MI. That extra team would bump us up to 30 teams.
Also, in CA, there are 6 regionals, not 4. |
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So most gained: Michigan: 11 Mexico and South America: 6 Most Lost: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Quebec: 7 Arizona, Nevada, Utah: 7 Ontario: 6 |
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Huh, one must have dropped out between this afternoon and now. Wonder who.
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Looks like FIRST has been busy brainstorming reconfigurations. Check out slide 8...
http://www.nefirst.org/2012/07/28/town-hall-meeting-ct-recap/ Not crazy about what appears to be a disproportionate allocation of CMP slots for international teams in the near future. |
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That's a lot of time for students and mentors to miss, no matter how you look at it. Having said that, I like the idea of a smaller 240 team CMP. It leads to having divisions where you can actually play with/against most of the other teams, which you can't currently do now with 100 team divisions. |
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EDIT: Also what is a flex event? and It says no changes in awards/medals I am pretty sure that we have had a lot of complaints about how wimpy the district trophies are.... |
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flex events are lower cost regionals. They may be held in a high school, the A/V cost/standards are lowered, in the past they would have been B&T vs ship.
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Another issue with a Super Regional concept is that teams will find out very late in the season that they qualify.
I know this still happens now for late qualifying teams at Week 6 & 7 events, but not for every team. Imagine 200 or so teams struggling to find registration money, make travel arrangements and notifying school boards at the end of Week 7, just 10 days before they have to travel out of state. This problem was reality last year, for late qualifying MAR teams and would have to be solved before we scale it up for 240 teams. |
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Here is something funny, the totals on the chart are for 2011 with 2013 numbers I believe:
North Super Regional: 704 Teams East Super Regional: 560 Teams South Super Regional: 515 Teams West Super Regional: 551 Teams I am pretty sure at almost 1/3 of teams the North Super Regional needs to have teams redistributed |
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It might be possible to move a state or two into a neighboring region, but I think it would be better to award championship spots proportionally instead of awarding exactly 54 per super regional.
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I do think the current timeline for FIRST will have to change... Maybe Championships in June after school gets out? As it is now, many of my team members won't go to the CMP (if we make it there), simply because AP testing is so close. |
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With this new super-regional concept, tied with a district model, one might imagine more Sat-Sun events. Quote:
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Michigan requires all teams to supply 2 volunteers to an event each season (It does not have to be events you are participating in as a team). |
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So, Bedford is the newest Michigan District to take up the growth to FiM 209 teams.
A Friday/Saturday event though: 05-Apr - 06-Apr-2013 Bedford High School 8285 Jackman Road Temperance, MI |
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Registration is at
The peak was 2571 registered teams, before it fell back. A rough estimate of 400 event slots are open and unassigned. The districts haven't filled their double rosters yet though. The smallest Regionals are Waterloo and Western Canada at 30 teams each. Here are some registration charts to play with. |
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I neglected to mention that FiM has rounded out their District team rosters.
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Interesting that the 2013 season holds the record for retention rate at present, as well as one of the highest year-over-year drops in Lost teams. I wonder what changed. Did JCP pull the plug for the 2012 season killing a disproportionately high number of teams or something?
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Part of that could be the teacher strike issues in Canada... I just looked, and there are 42 Rookie teams, out of 128 total this year (The number I just pulled off FIRST's site is a little different from Mark's, not sure why), while Canada had 113 teams last year. That's 27 teams that dropped from last year (almost 25%!), but impressive growth in new teams at the same time! I would hope that, without the issues Canada has been going through this year, we would have had a lot more of those teams returning.
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I've heard rumors of teams able to get waivers from the union to run this year, but I can't confirm the accuracy of that statement.
-Nick |
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NYC has cleared teams from it's waitlist.
Who out there is still hoping on a waitlist? MAR has
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Am I correct in that there is no way to see the size of waitlist at a regional or a way to search for regionals with open spots, other than clicking through to each regional in What Events are in my Area? I have several teams with the funding for a second regional for the first time, but are just sitting on a waitlist now, they (and I) don't know if they can/should blindly waitlist everywhere remotely possible or stay the course and hope for the more reasonable option an hour away. Wetzel |
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But thanks for the good luck :). |
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Yea, there's no publicly perusable waitpool, since it's not a single ordered list anyway.
Only the Regional Director can say for sure if more space is available, but last year's capacity is usually a reasonably dependable guide. Baltimore just moved in a couple of more teams off the waitlist this afternoon. The Regionals still showing open slots that teams can get in right away are: # slots - Regional 1-BAE Systems Granite State Regional 1-Northern Lights Regional 1-Festival de Robotique FRC a Montreal Regional 1-Bayou Regional 1-Boston Regional 1-Utah Regional 1-Wisconsin Regional 1-Razorback Regional 1-Hawaii Regional 2-Greater Toronto East Regional 3-Pine Tree Regional 3-Las Vegas Regional 4-Waterloo Regional 4-Buckeye Regional 5-South Florida Regional 5-Spokane Regional 12-Western Canadian FRC Regional 14-Greater Toronto West Regional |
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7 Ontario teams just dropped out from these events:
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EDIT: Fair warning, I fear this may be only the first wave of withdrawals from Ontario teams. |
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GTR East: 188 886 919 1219 1246 1605 2185 2198 Montreal: 1246 Waterloo: 188 4647 4677 4691 GTR West: 886 2185 Pity to see all these teams missing, in particular 188, a perennial powerhouse. |
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I think the idea of super regionals is frankly, a scary one. You would create massive scheduling nightmares and severely affect the average team's budget if they made it that far. At this point in time, it seems almost nebulous. For the time being you can still easily allocate slots to teams right off of their single or multi-state district competitions rankings. Don't go trying to turn FRC on its head, just direct it to a more sustainable growth model. |
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Don't expect to see it happen too terribly quickly, but I'm sure it will happen. There are potential issues with volunteers in the area if you suddenly have to support a larger number of district events (especially in the key volunteer roles like Lead Robot Inspector or Head Ref).
Next, how do you handle teams that don't easily fall into a region? There are still areas with very low FRC population density. For those areas, teams would need to travel for 2 district events, plus the district champs, plus champs, or find a regional farther away to attend. Today, they are likely traveling to their nearest regional, which could be in an area that could be converted to districts. Based on the growth maps in the first post to this thread, there are clearly areas of the country where this wouldn't be much of an issue... but there are also areas where it would be. |
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Remembering that some team attrition is normal...
The Canadian teams missing now from last year are: 188 Toronto, ON, Canada 843 Oakville, ON, Canada 886 North York, ON, Canada 919 Toronto, ON, Canada 1009 North York, ON Canada 1053 Ottawa, ON, Canada 1219 Toronto, ON, Canada 1221 Mississauga, ON, Canada 1246 Scarborough, ON, Canada 1404 Toronto, ON, Canada 1514 Toronto, ON, Canada 1535 Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada 1605 Toronto, ON Canada 1835 Toronto, ON, Canada 2076 Toronto, ON Canada 2185 Toronto, ON 2198 Toronto, ON, Canada 3531 Montreal, QC, Canada 3739 London, ON, Canada 3978 Montreal, QC Canada 3980 Montreal, QC Canada 4022 Waterdown, ON Canada 4062 Ste-Genevieve, QC Canada 4094 Angus, ON Canada 4147 Yarmouth, NS Canada 4236 mississauga, ON Canada 4248 Whitby, ON Canada 4249 Brampton, ON Canada 4250 Cobourg, ON Canada 4258 Markham, ON Canada 4307 Ajax, ON Canada 4308 Mississauga, ON Canada 4357 Port Hope, ON Canada 4367 Mississauga, ON Canada A defunct veteran team tried to return but dropped: 2609 Guelph, ON Canada (last played in 2011) Also rookies who registered then dropped out were from: Calgary, AB Canada Calgary, AB Canada Westlock, AB Canada Shawnigan Lake, BC Canada Tecumseh, ON Canada Richmond Hill, ON Canada Mississauga, ON Canada |
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Keep in mind that any missing teams not located in Ontario are unaffected by the labour issues. |
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Mark do you have numbers for teams lost in a specific region with the number of teams similar to the number of Canadian teams?
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I can probably find a similar area team-#-wise, but I think using Ontario last year might have more relevance, due to economic/societal/government/union/etc. differences.
This year's Ontario team loss is quite a bit higher than last year - about 22% higher. In 2012 there were 78 Ontario teams. An overall gain of 20% on the previous season. 10 teams were lost. Between 2012 and 2013 there was only a one team difference in potential rookies dropping out, so that's probably not significant. So, in Ontario that translates into a 15.4% loss of veteran teams in 2012. By the way, that was about 6% worse than the average veteran loss. Currently, for 2013 there are 29 teams missing and 72 registered. An overall loss of 7.6%. So in 2013 there is a 37.2% loss of veteran teams. Almost 29% worse than the across-the-board average veteran team loss of 8.5%. The # of rookie teams was very similar- 21 in 2012 vs. 23 in 2013. Here are the Ontario teams that didn't play in 2012, but did play in 2011: 1006 Port Perry, ON, Canada 1312 Walkerton, ON, Canada 2361 Richmond Hill, ON, Canada 2609 Guelph, ON, Canada 2670 Toronto, ON, Canada 3040 Toronto, ON, Canada 3563 Innisfil, ON, Canada 3590 Toronto, ON, Canada 3664 Burlington, ON, Canada 3698 Mississauga, ON, Canada Almost 2012 rookies who didn't stick around: Mississauga, ON Canada Toronto, ON Canada |
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According to their twitter account, 188 is back in business.
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Short of "forcing" new events in these areas and hoping new teams start up with them I'm not sure how FIRST is going to effectively move the District system into these areas on their timeline. I think it can happen in the future but 2015 is an ambitious goal for these regions. Quote:
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Truly remote areas do have travel problems; our friends in the UP can attest to that. Districts are not the perfect solution, but something will have to be done as the number of FRC teams continues to grow. Districts provide capacity, and also provide for growth in areas that have few teams now. Why doesn't Iowa have a dozen or more teams? |
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In my estimation, the district system doesn't have a major impact on driving distance from Iowa. We'd probably be going to Kansas City, St. Louis, etc, which are the same places we're going anyway.
I would be pretty happy to get into a district system because of the lower cost per event. I'd be sad to lose some of the current flexibility to travel in any direction to a regional event, but in the end we might retain that if everything goes district. Quote:
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I like to think at some point district events won't have to be tied into certain regional or state championships, but you register saying you want points to be tallied for eligibility for an available regional or state championship event so you can maintain flexibility some rural teams may need while still moving over to the low cost district format. I feel like regions should be competing against each other to have the best representation possible at CMP. When MAR and MSC teams are playing twice as many matches as my team for the same price, I would like to do something to level that ASAP. |
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Tab over really quick and google-map "Potsdam, NY". We normally attend either Rochester, or a New England event, because those are the things in the closest driving distance - Rochester is 4 and Manchester is 5 - (barring Canada- of which Montreal is 1 hour away, GTR E/W are 5 hours away...We have a lot of students who live on the reservation up here, and crossing the border can get very complicated) Assuming New England and Rochester/Ohio each become districts of their own... We don't fall into either. So, where do we go? |
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I don't think I made this apparent in my post, but I am in favor of the District system. I want more matches. I want to attend multiple events. I want to see more teams in FIRST because the barrier to entry is lower. What I wanted to bring up though is that many of the benefits of going to a District system aren't there for rural teams or when clusters of teams are very far apart from each other. The District system may be new in name only if few of the teams in these areas can afford the travel costs to go to the 2nd event that they now have free entry into and it doesn't produce any closer events for them.
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The low quantity of teams in the Mountain West and Northern Plains is largely an issue of population and density. Iowa as a state has 3 million people and they're spread out over a fairly large region; a list of high school sizes I pulled up shows only 18 high schools with more than 1500 students and 42 high schools with more than 1000 students. If you had a FIRST team in every one of them it wouldn't be a problem but given the typical rate of FIRST teams relative to total high schools in a state the numbers just work out to a low total. The lower population density also means there are less businesses in any given area to be potential sponsors, and less potential mentors, etc. Two things working in Iowa's favor: 1. Iowa launched a STEM initiative this year that more or less covers the cost of competition for FLL and FTC teams. There has been an explosion of growth in both of these programs in a few years, and I would suspect it could spill over into more FRC teams in the future. 2. Iowa has a really strong manufacturing base, so I feel that the percentage of the population that are engineers or some sort of skilled trade is higher than in some other states (just a personal observation). Quote:
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As the district system expands, remote teams will have to go somewhere, and it probably won't work in their favor. It's not as big of an issue in MAR, since the region is small in size. When (if) larger states start moving to districts, it's going to be a more widespread issue, and there's no way to make it fair (easy travel) for everyone. The best thing that can be done is starting up district events farther away from the central "hub" of teams for the region (which is Metro Detroit, in Michigan), if possible - it encourages the other teams to travel and still gives students the opportunity to experience the fun of a travel event, which the district system has kind of taken away. And, as Gary mentioned, it encourages growth in the less dense areas. |
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An update.
Currently showing 2548 teams. Things have slowed, but not stopped. Some events are still adding and dropping onesies/twosies. Since formal registration closed on December 6...
So, the registration total for this season has dropped by a dozen teams so far. Last night we did get two more teams though, so we're not done yet. |
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Looks like Lake Superior & Northern Lights just swapped 6 teams around (3 from each) to balance things out I suppose.
One pre-qualified team (842) dropped off the Championships team list. I hope it's only temporary. |
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FiM has begun assigning third District slots by assigning 9 for the Bedford District (the one with all the space left).
One Michigan team dropped out of Waterford & Livonia to make it 208 Michigan teams this year. Overall, FRC has 2540 registered teams right now. |
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Another team (23) dropped off the list for Championship.
The Michigan Bedford event is still being filled with 3rd district event teams. Total teams has been unusually volatile after registration closing this year. I'll add a graph later tonight. |
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Mark,
Do you have an up-to-date spreadsheet with all the teams registered this year and the regional(s) they are registered to attend? How would you compile this list? (easily, computer assisted) Thanks |
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I have an up-to-date event team list, but not with me.
Ed Law usually publishes his, but he's probably waiting for Bedford to settle out: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2731 You can get the team list and other info. on an event basis if you have the event IDs. Then you can setup a macro to collect them all in Excel or another tool. I have to go looking for the Event IDs. P.S. Event IDs: https://my.usfirst.org/frc/scoring/index.lasso?page=eventlist For example, here is the Long Island list: https://my.usfirst.org/frc/scoring/index.lasso?page=event_teamlist&ID_event=9011 |
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Championship just lost another of the pre-qualified teams (548)
Do you still need teamlists by event, Floyd? I mailed the latest to myself. |
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Iiiiiinteresting about 548.
another place to see the event codes: frclinks.com frclinks.com/e/<event code> gets you to the team list for each event. |
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There are now 2324 teams playing this season. Correction, the new Beta Team list shows 2324 teams, but the FIRST database still has 2339 teams listed. I think I'll go with the database and take a look at what teams aren't showning up on the new Beta. P.S. the Beta site seems to be built from older team/event lists. There are teams listed on it who aren't playing, and teams who are playing who aren't listed. FIRST has a new Beta Teams & Events page Positives:
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Watch out for my typos though.
There are 2539 teams, although the new Beta Team list only shows 2324 (it's actually 215 teams off). |
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When I looked two days ago, DC showed a Turkish, an Israeli, and two Brazilian teams attending. Today it shows one Israeli and one Brazilian. It is a Beta.
Wetzel |
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2536 teams now registered.
We lost a few more. The qualifiers from this past weekend of events have started to register for Championship. There are now 39 teams registered. |
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2534 teams registered.
128 now registered for Championships. 12.5% of them are rookie teams. |
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A few more dropped out
2531 teams now. 187 registered for the Championship. |
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What is the max number of teams that the championship event can hold?
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Thanks!
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However, I'm sure there is a statistic available on % of teams who accept bids that would probably mean only 370 or some similar number of those slots are filled. |
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So, in the hypothetical case of 370 registering, about 30 other teams would get in on the wait list?
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Hypothetically speaking, that's the idea.
Just remember that FIRST has changed the # of teams admitted to Championship over the year's, so no guarantees on the total number that will be admitted. Currently 245 teams are registered for Championship. |
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Slightly educated guess, but CMP will likely be smaller this year than it was last year. It seems that FIRST was surprised by a higher than normal acceptance rate last year, and the end of open registration and the wild card system were an attempt to bring the number of teams back to the mid 300's.
2012 - 400 2011 - 352 2010 - 344 2009 - 348 2008 - 340 2007 - 344 2006 - 344 2005 - 340 Aside from that, the two district systems (FiM and MAR) had their CMP slots adjusted. From what I've heard, FIRST assigned slots to FiM and MAR based on the region population relative to total slots at CMP. FiM has 27 slots for 206 teams, and MAR has 14 slots for 109 teams. Assuming 2550 FRC teams, FiM represents about 8.1% of FRC teams, and MAR represents 4.3% of FRC teams. So for FiM and MAR to have 8.1% and 4.3% of the CMP slots, that suggests 330-340 teams at CMP this year. Last year there were 100 teams per field, 9 matches per team, and 150 qualification matches total. Dropping to 90 teams per field allows 10 matches per team in the same 150 qualification matches. I would say 350-360 teams total sounds about right for this year. 2010 and 2011 had 10 qual matches per team. The math for this year lines up almost perfectly with those guesses. As of this post there are 249 teams registered (week 5 qualifiers have until 5PM EST, so possibly add a couple more). There are 12 more regional events for a max of 72 teams, 14 MAR, and 27 FiM. That yields 362 teams assuming 100% acceptance. |
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Does anyone have the acceptance rate from last year? I remember from the now removed blog post that it was somewhere around 80%, and previously it had been around 60%.
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Since the era of Championship waitlist registration may be gone for good, I think you'll continue to see a high acceptance rate.
Ex. "If my team wins a Regional in 2013, that may be our only chance to go to the Championship for years" |
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We're at 252 teams now, so we're seeing at least 80% acceptance (subtracting ~30 from that number for pre-qual teams). You would have to find the list of pre-registered teams and see if they qualified this season (killing a slot) to get the real number. For example 1114 and 2056 were both pre-registered, and they ate two (of the 276) slots by winning their first event, their later wins generated wildcard slots. |
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58 regionals * 6 spots/regional = 348 regional qualifiers + 27 FiM teams + 14 MAR teams + 17 HoF** + 6 sustaining teams** + 12 Einstein teams + 1 EI team = 425 potential championship slots
Double qualifying HoF, Sustaining and Einstein teams don't create Wild Card slots, so there shouldn't be any issues accommodating all the teams that want to go, even if it's all the teams that are eligible. **191 is a Hall of Fame team (twice) and a sustaining team. They are counted as a Hall of Fame team for the purposes of this exercise. |
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CMP registration for week 5 qualifiers ended about an hour ago, now at 262 teams.
So without going to the waitlist, that means CMP can hit a max of 375 teams (+72 Regional, +14 MAR, +27 FiM). It's likely a few of those slots will be killed by wasted wildcard slots (hello SVR/Vegas!), along a few regular declines. I like the idea of 90 team divisions and jumping back to 10 matches in qualifications. Match turnaround might be a little longer than last year though, and CMP will probably have a high concentration of 30 point climbers. I'm sure FIRST has a number in mind regardless, so whatever that is will determine if/when teams get pulled from the waitlist. |
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