Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

My question is badly stated. How soon can projected results be generated once the qualifying schedule is published. How easy is this to do? I can do it myself if possible.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Averages out to zero, but that's to be expected.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

I'd say that the OPR match results are more often than not higher than the actual scores.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Interesting observation, and I got the same answer you did.

In 82% of the matches, the outcome of the match (win or lose) was the same according to the actual score and the OPR "expected" score.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Id love to see some confidence intervals on this. With a .95 CI it might be neat to try and apply it to matches this weekend before they happen and see to what accuracy an event could be predicted.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

3,713 (48.4%) of the actual alliance scores were greater than the OPR "expected" alliance score. 3,953 (51.6%) were less.

But the sum of all the actual alliance scores is equal to the sum of all the OPR "expected" alliance scores.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Here's a spreadsheet in a format which may be somewhat easier to use for various statistical analysis endeavors.

Column Headings & meaning:

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Here's a spreadsheet using CCWM instead of OPR.

Column Headings & meaning:

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Correctly predicting 83.3% of the outcomes. (I'm pretty sure.)

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Yes, I got the same number.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Please read the instructions tab. The answer is there. The information you are looking for is available in one of the tabs. Filters are set up for you so you can select only the teams that is going to a particular regional/district.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

Starting from row 154 are the qualification matches. Column L and M is the prediction of each match. However it cannot predict match results until there are data. It needs a few matches before it will even be able to solve the equations. To get accurate and meaningful numbers, I think you need at least 4 to 5 matches.

The over 80% accuracy is after all the qualifying matches are available. A least square fit is used which is why the error is minimized. The number is even more impressive if you consider the close matches that can swing either way. During the qualifying matches, even after 4 to 5 matches, the prediction is not as accurate. But it is the best method there is and that is what most people use. I have not done any studies but the accuracy should be over 66% this year and the later matches will get more and more accurate.

Ether, this is another interesting challenge for you.

However there is another way to do this. It is by using historical OPR or projected OPR. But it only works with all 6 teams in that match has played in another event.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

What I would be interested in is a comparison between OPR for an event, and actual average points scored for each robot. This, of course, means that a very accurate log of all robots for all matches is needed. Anyone have that data? (Before we get flamed for poor scouting, we don't keep track of ALL robots in ALL matches. The majority, yes - but not all.)

We make videos of all of our matches so we can go back and look for improvements in the robot and the driving. Using the videos, I've kept track of all of the points our robot scored during qualifications at both of our districts so far. OPR has been within 10% of our actual average at both events.

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

We are starting to do that analysis for Grand Blanc. I have done it on a piece-meal basis for many other teams and the +/-10 is a pretty good rule of thumb this year, but there have been a handful of outliers (as to be expected). At Waterford, on firday night scouting, a team had an OPR between 15 and 20 pts (after 8 matches), but they were not even on the field for about 6 of those matches.

And of course our "actuals" are only as accurrate as the scouts. In general, they do a really good job, but I do frequently find errors (one scout recorded 33 putting up 8 discs in auton:yikes: )

Re: OPR after Week Four Events
 

I know some people have already seen this, but this forum has responded exactly to what my app does. Discussion on the topic can be found here:
NEW: OPR FIRST 2013 Android App
OPR and CCMW applications

Either way, I use the OPR's to calculate a predicted score in real time. Like stated earlier, it is very accurate in terms of who wins/loses. As of scoring, the percentage varies. It would be cool to use past OPRs to predict the results. My app uses data specific to that regional and only that regional. So the longer the regional goes on, the more accurate the data is.

In addition, it has information about the average alliance score and OPR right next to each other to compare. I know, its not the same as a robots average points, but it would be hard to get that information for every team in a regional that hasnt been played yet because no one can keep track of individual scouting data for each team at each regional. Our OPR was 42.7 ish (I dont remember the actual number) but according to our scouting data, our average scoring points were around 43-44 points.