Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

However, given the sheer number of discs available, the ability of teams to both human-load and floor-load, and the different climbing mechanisms, this year's estimations could be much more accurate than the last few. (Especially in relation to minibots, ubertubes, and coopertition points.)

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

...Which is why OPR sucked as a metric of team performance in 2011.

OPR in 2013: pretty good until you get to really high scores where multiple teams on an alliance could drain the alliance station of discs on their own.

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

Still waiting for the rest of the Qual Match data from Bridgewater, but in the meantime here's an interesting look at the OPR and CCWM based on Week6 events.

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

Crossroads OPR from Friday matches were 16 for 25 in predicting outcomes, which is much worse than Boilermaker's 20 for 24.

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

Can you elaborate how you do the prediction?

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

I used OPRNet's predictions after the Friday matches, and then kept track today.

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

I count only 8 matches not correctly predicted:

64
65
70
72
73
76
78
84

... what's the 9^th one?

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

While we're waiting for Ed to update his superb scouting spreadsheet...

OPR & CCWM World Rankings based on Weeks 1 thru 6 Qual Match data

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

71 was a tie.

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

OK, let's call it 16 out of 24 then :-)

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

When I did counts using OPR data and match outcome "predictions", I always counted ties as wrong.

Unless there's a confidence interval, I'm not exactly sure how to treat a tie statistically. And labeling a match "too close to call" isn't any fun. :p

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

Ties are outliers in binomial situations. Because you cant have 3 options for two choices. Which is why ether just excused it and lowered the sample size.

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

Right, but hypothetically if OPR predictions said the match would be 100-50, and there was a tie 50-50, the OPR prediction is wrong and shouldn't be excused as a tie.

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

hypothetically if OPR prediction said the match would be 50.001-49.999, and there was a tie 50-50, should the OPR prediction be considered wrong and not excused as a tie? :-)

Maybe we should start publishing the residual vector (or the covariance matrix?) along with the OPR :-)

Re: OPR after Week Five Events
 

One metric I've used to avoid this problem is the mean and standard deviation of the distribution of alliance score residuals. I also considered using winning margin residuals, but decided against.