Re: OPR after Week Six Events
 

OPR is snubbing you! :p

Re: OPR after Week Six Events
 

I wonder if it would reasonable to assume that the top ~100 will make it to elims at worlds. Of course the are holes in this theory, but I would like to see how accurate this can be as a model of prediction.

Re: OPR after Week Six Events
 

I've found that the best way to get pictures of every robot, is to get to the venue early on Friday morning, and try to be one of the first people into the pits.

(this for normal regionals, not sure how it would work at a district or championship event)

Re: OPR after Week Six Events
 

YOu can also download pictures of most robots from the 2013 FRC tracker app. It will send you an email with all the robot pics available. I have about 200 pictures of robots attending champs

Re: OPR after Week Six Events
 

OPR (and CCWM) use the very simple underlying model that each team's performance can be approximated as a single constant parameter. This makes the math fairly easy so we can use matrix inversion (or your favorite decomposition method) to find the optimal solution to the regression.

But we can extend the underlying model to almost any function and use more general optimization methods to find a solution 1.
In particular we can use a linear function (a*m+b) rather than just a constant for the underlying model of each team's score, so each team is characterized by 2 parameters rather than 1. In this linear model the parameter b is similar to OPR and a is a measure of how much better or worse a team gets each match.

I tried this last year for a couple of regionals and while it matched the results better (smaller residuals as expected) it was no better at predicting unseen matches. If time allows I'll redo the analysis for the 2013 game which is OPR friendly.

More importantly for scouting, having 2 parameters per team also makes it harder to rank them! Is a team where the model predicts 20 points every match (a=0;b=20) better or worse than a team where the model predicts 15 points initially but improving a point each match (a=1;b=15)?
I'll leave the ranking question to wiser minds.

1 Note that more complex functions may produce solutions which are not guaranteed to be optimal

Re: OPR after Week Six Events
 

It was brought to my attention today that the macro to automatically update OPR and CCWM for MSC and MAR Championship do not work. For people at MSC, I was able to help them set it up there. For people at MAR Championship, sorry about the inconvenience. I did not set up the link at the beginning of the season because these two events do not have any teams registered at that time. I guess I forgot to do it when I published the spreadsheet after Week 6 events. You can download the new version 6.2spreadsheet at http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174.

Re: OPR after Week Six Events
 

I meant to PM you about it when I noticed earlier this week, but it totally slipped my mind after I just set it up myself.. You also have problems with BAE (place where rankings query should be is instead qual match query) and Week 1 in general (not at all your fault; before FIRST switched away from using CP).

Re: OPR after Week Six Events
 

Unfortunately not everybody knows how to set it up. One of these days when I have time, I will put a detailed instructions how to do it in the spreadsheet in the Instruction tab. It is fairly simple once somebody shows you.