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-   -   2013 NE FIRST District Rankings (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=115890)

JackS 09-04-2013 03:26
2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Special thanks to Brian Smist from 229 for doing half the work. As always, this is done by hand, please bring up any corrections.

Points:

Code:
This uses the most recent NE proposal from their site.

Qual Win: 2 pts
Qual Tie: 1 pt
QF: 5 pts
SF: 10 pts
F: 20 pts
W: 30 pts
Awards: 5 (Except RCA, EI, RAS)

Also, despite NE saying they will count the top two events, I did the first
two events for everyone.
Rankings with NY teams from Capital District should Conference Model be adopted:

Code:
1        20        108
2        125        89
3        2648        85
4        1519        75
5        3467        72
6        2791        69
7        126        67
8        2168        67
9        1100        66
10        3609        66
11        230        63
12        155        59
13        172        58
14        195        55
15        176        54
16        175        53
17        69        51
18        2067        51
19        228        50
20        1991        49
21        177        47
22        3958        46
23        558        46
24        3280        44
25        1153        44
26        3930        44
27        133        44
28        95        44
29        3044        43
30        4055        39
31        78        38
32        3525        38
33        58        36
34        2877        35
35        1071        35
36        4134        35
37        61        34
38        88        34
39        1073        33
40        839        32
41        157        32
42        1831        32
43        1517        32
44        885        31
45        571        29
46        1735        28
47        4473        28
48        4546        28
49        3205        26
50        236        26
51        509        25
52        181        25
53        3780        24
54        190        24
55        4564        24
56        1922        24
57        250        24
58        3182        24
59        138        23
60        4761        22
61        1058        22
62        121        21
63        1027        21
64        319        21
65        131        21
66        151        21
67        1512        21
68        1277        20
69        3566        20
70        173        20
71        3146        20
72        2370        20
73        3466        19
74        2423        18
75        1350        18
76        2349        18
77        4508        18
78        999        18
79        246        17
80        3236        17
81        1687        17
82        1784        17
83        4812        17
84        3499        17
85        3654        17
86        1493        17
87        1973        16
88        1699        16
89        2876        15
90        97        15
91        1761        15
92        1965        15
93        3585        15
94        4557        15
95        4097        14
96        4609        14
97        3464        14
98        237        14
99        2170        13
100        178        13
101        1768        12
102        2871        12
103        3479        12
104        238        12
105        3323        12
106        3104        12
107        716        12
108        663        12
109        3718        12
110        4176        11
111        2064        11
112        2836        11
113        23        10
114        2079        10
115        2084        10
116        3927        10
117        1289        10
118        4042        10
119        348        10
120        213        10
121        1665        10
122        3687        10
123        4311        9
124        4410        9
125        3597        9
126        4793        9
127        2342        9
128        1474        8
129        1757        8
130        2713        8
131        4041        8
132        1247        8
133        3634        8
134        501        8
135        2523        8
136        4048        7
137        1099        7
138        2262        6
139        4151        6
140        4474        6
141        2104        6
142        2621        6
143        467        6
144        3451        6
145        4555        6
146        166        6
147        1307        6
148        4034        6
149        4254        6
150        1740        6
151        3461        6
152        4628        6
153        1754        4
154        4796        4
155        529        4
156        811        4
157        1729        4
158        1124        4
159        2785        4
160        4572        4
161        1721        4
162        3555        3
163        3623        2
164        3719        0
And rankings without NY teams:

Code:
1        125        89
2        2648        85
3        1519        75
4        3467        72
5        126        67
6        2168        67
7        1100        66
8        3609        66
9        230        63
10        155        59
11        172        58
12        195        55
13        176        54
14        175        53
15        69        51
16        2067        51
17        228        50
18        1991        49
19        177        47
20        3958        46
21        558        46
22        3280        44
23        1153        44
24        3930        44
25        133        44
26        95        44
27        4055        39
28        78        38
29        3525        38
30        58        36
31        2877        35
32        1071        35
33        61        34
34        88        34
35        1073        33
36        839        32
37        157        32
38        1831        32
39        1517        32
40        885        31
41        571        29
42        1735        28
43        4473        28
44        4546        28
45        3205        26
46        236        26
47        181        25
48        509        25
49        3780        24
50        190        24
51        4564        24
52        3182        24
53        1922        24
54        138        23
55        4761        22
56        1058        22
57        121        21
58        1027        21
59        319        21
60        131        21
61        151        21
62        1512        21
63        1277        20
64        3566        20
65        173        20
66        3146        20
67        2370        20
68        3466        19
69        2423        18
70        1350        18
71        2349        18
72        999        18
73        246        17
74        3236        17
75        1687        17
76        1784        17
77        4812        17
78        3654        17
79        3499        17
80        1973        16
81        1699        16
82        2876        15
83        97        15
84        1761        15
85        1965        15
86        4557        15
87        3585        15
88        4097        14
89        4609        14
90        3464        14
91        237        14
92        2170        13
93        178        13
94        1768        12
95        2871        12
96        3479        12
97        3104        12
98        716        12
99        238        12
100        3323        12
101        663        12
102        3718        12
103        4176        11
104        2064        11
105        2836        11
106        23        10
107        2079        10
108        2084        10
109        3927        10
110        1289        10
111        4042        10
112        348        10
113        213        10
114        4311        9
115        4410        9
116        3597        9
117        4793        9
118        2342        9
119        1474        8
120        1757        8
121        2713        8
122        4041        8
123        3634        8
124        1247        8
125        501        8
126        2523        8
127        4048        7
128        1099        7
129        2262        6
130        4151        6
131        4474        6
132        2104        6
133        2621        6
134        467        6
135        3451        6
136        4555        6
137        1740        6
138        3461        6
139        4628        6
140        166        6
141        1307        6
142        4034        6
143        1754        4
144        4796        4
145        529        4
146        1124        4
147        2785        4
148        4572        4
149        811        4
150        1729        4
151        1721        4
152        3555        3
153        3623        2
154        3719        0

jwfoss 09-04-2013 08:26
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Jack (and Brian), nice work putting this together. I was wondering where we would stand in a district points structure.

Jessica Boucher 09-04-2013 09:40
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jwfoss (Post 1259119)
I was wondering where we would stand in a district points structure.
You know, there's supposed to be a post by one of the NE folks who created a district points simulator so that you could play with all the values ::coughKylecough::....just haven't seen it yet :)

Rosiebotboss 09-04-2013 09:59
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jessica Boucher (Post 1259155)
You know, there's supposed to be a post by one of the NE folks who created a district points simulator so that you could play with all the values ::coughKylecough::....just haven't seen it yet :)
I'll remind him....:cool:

Bill_B 09-04-2013 10:26
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Just so I can tell if I'm understanding this. The points were calculated as if the regionals in N.E. were district events. They would then determine invitation to the proposed district championship, viz. the top 80, right? NE District championship to be played "this" weekend from which 30 or so teams being invited to CMP in St. Louis. Have I got it right?

Now can we discuss why this points summary may, or may not, be slightly misleading? First, there is the number of events attended by many of the teams. That is, not enough opportunity for the one-event teams to get points for their Q-wins in this summary. A supposed advantage to the district model is that teams will get more matches played as a result. Perhaps the points for single regional event teams could be amplified a bit to reflect this. E.g., the scores from 9 Q-matches at CT regional might get a multiplier of 14/9ths to predict performance in two district events with 7 Q-matches each.

Second, the relative size of regionals to district events would change the dynamics of those competitions somewhat. Not sure about what the effect on points would be, but I'm sure it would be there.

Then there's the even more nebulous effect of the possibility of 8 hours "out of bag" preceding 2-day district events. Is this a factor? At present, teams attending 2-day events get to schedule a sort of "virtual Thursday" by logging time with their robot out of its bag before the competition. Will we allow this in the NE District?

dag0620 09-04-2013 11:08
My only questions is does this factor in teams that only attended one even? If so was anything done to factor the fact that they attended one event?

While obviously this is a very rough sketch and many of the metrics in Districts won't apply, I think it's a great way to see how things would play out.

cjl2625 09-04-2013 11:16
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
So NE sends 30 teams, and according to the model, 11 teams will be from the champions, chairmans, rookie all-star, etc.

So would that mean the top 22 in this list would be guaranteed to qualify for championships, regardless of wins/awards?

dodar 09-04-2013 11:18
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
What would be the disappearing regionals?

Brandon Holley 09-04-2013 11:28
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjl2625 (Post 1259191)
So NE sends 30 teams, and according to the model, 11 teams will be from the champions, chairmans, rookie all-star, etc.

So would that mean the top 22 in this list would be guaranteed to qualify for championships, regardless of wins/awards?
I believe points are still accrued through to the end of the DCMP. I think in MAR the points are tripled, so its still very much anyones ball game...

-Brando

JackS 09-04-2013 11:48
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dag0620 (Post 1259188)
My only questions is does this factor in teams that only attended one even? If so was anything done to factor the fact that they attended one event?
No, this is just raw data. If anyone wants to normalize for different factors PM me and I can send you the excel sheet.

MikeE 09-04-2013 11:55
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill_B (Post 1259169)
Just so I can tell if I'm understanding this. The points were calculated as if the regionals in N.E. were district events. They would then determine invitation to the proposed district championship, viz. the top 80, right? NE District championship to be played "this" weekend from which 30 or so teams being invited to CMP in St. Louis. Have I got it right?

Now can we discuss why this points summary may, or may not, be slightly misleading? First, there is the number of events attended by many of the teams. That is, not enough opportunity for the one-event teams to get points for their Q-wins in this summary. A supposed advantage to the district model is that teams will get more matches played as a result. Perhaps the points for single regional event teams could be amplified a bit to reflect this. E.g., the scores from 9 Q-matches at CT regional might get a multiplier of 14/9ths to predict performance in two district events with 7 Q-matches each.

Second, the relative size of regionals to district events would change the dynamics of those competitions somewhat. Not sure about what the effect on points would be, but I'm sure it would be there.

Then there's the even more nebulous effect of the possibility of 8 hours "out of bag" preceding 2-day district events. Is this a factor? At present, teams attending 2-day events get to schedule a sort of "virtual Thursday" by logging time with their robot out of its bag before the competition. Will we allow this in the NE District?
Right - the results are informative but not a good predictive model of the district.

The rankings above from this year's Regionals primarily reflect whether a team attended 1 or 2+ Regionals, but under the district model every team would be guaranteed 2 events.

The other impacts come from having smaller events, which increase the expected points awarded in several ways:
  • increasing the number of qualification matches per team,
  • increasing the probability of being selected for eliminations (e.g. 24/34 rather than 24/65 for a big regional),
  • increasing the probability of winning an award, and
  • arguably diluting the strength of elimination alliances, hence increasing the variance of expected elimination points

Assuming district events average 34 teams each (155 teams attending 2 of 9 events), and a relatively gentle schedule of 12 qualification matches, then the expected point total under the proposed model would be 39.9 for competition performance only. Award points would be additional.

The average from the table above is only 23.2 including awards.

Rosiebotboss 09-04-2013 12:23
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Its great that this conversation is happening. Please continue it, BUT also realize that this is NOT the final point structure. You are giving us good feedback on your thoughts and expectations of what the advancement criteria should look like. Encourage others to take part on this thread. Several of us are monitoring it daily.

The final rounds of meetings are taking place now among the movers and shakers of FIRST in New England to finalize a LOT of things that need finalizing before we go into negotiations with FIRST HQ. And a LOT of the things we are talking about are exctly the things you all brought up in theTown Hall meetings of last fall. So you are having an impact. Keep it up.

JackS 09-04-2013 13:49
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rosiebotboss (Post 1259238)
Encourage others to take part on this thread. Several of us are monitoring it daily.
If this is true I'd like to add my two cents to the discussion.

First, I'd have preferred to see the 5/2 awards system in place in FiM and MAR. Although the point difference is kind of splitting hairs, I think it matters when a bid to CMP is on the line.

Secondly, I'd like to see the DCMP count more than a district. Frankly, a 60-80 team DCMP is way harder than a 30 team district and teams should be rewarded as such. I think the best points system for CMP qualification would be your best (or two best) district events and 2 x DCMP.

And lastly, I really like the points system for eliminations, however I have two things I'd like to see:
  1. I think the points should be bumped to 10/15/25/35 because NE does not award points for selection the same way that FiM and MAR do. This rewards teams for making eliminations more than it did before, but not quite as much
  2. I think that the points should also be adjusted to be lower for the third robot on an alliance similarly to how selection points are distributed in FiM. Maybe the first two robots on an alliance get 10/15/25/35 while the third robot gets 5/10/20/30.

Jay O'Donnell 09-04-2013 15:20
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
I was actually planning on doing this during this week. Thanks for saving me a few days of work!

It seems that only the teams attending two regionals have a legitimate chance of doing really well. There are teams ranked below my own who I know are better than us, but we've attended two regionals, giving us a major boost.

tkell274 09-04-2013 16:32
Re: 2013 NE FIRST District Rankings
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackS (Post 1259285)
  1. I think the points should be bumped to 10/15/25/35 because NE does not award points for selection the same way that FiM and MAR do. This rewards teams for making eliminations more than it did before, but not quite as much
  2. I think that the points should also be adjusted to be lower for the third robot on an alliance similarly to how selection points are distributed in FiM. Maybe the first two robots on an alliance get 10/15/25/35 while the third robot gets 5/10/20/30.
I agree with your idea that the points should be bumped up for eliminations to really help teams that earned their spot in the eliminations. But I disagree with your point on giving the third robot less points. The randomness of qualifications and the possibility of robots breaking sometimes leads to teams qualification score not matching the true power of their robot and therefore they should not be penalized for how they are picked.


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