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An in depth look at the Michigan State Championship
Through week 6, 203 teams have played 1048 matches in the state of Michigan. We are down to the final 64 teams, roughly the top 30%. In the 4-year history of the Michigan State Championship, Michigan has produced 6 Einstein Finalists and regularly provides about 25% of the FRC Championship’s Divisional Eliminations teams. Of the 16 finalist captains and first picks in the 4 years of the Michigan State Championship, 9 have been at least Divisional Finalists. Success at MSC matters and it’s an indicator of good things to come.
What's at stake here? Unlike the regionals that take place around the country, the district competitions do not qualify anyone to championship. Currently, 6 FiM teams are qualified for championship. 67 and 51 are HoF teams, 27 won the EI award at Northern Lights, 245 won the Palmetto Regional, 2834 won at Buckeye, and 288 won the EI award at the Western Canadian Regional. 27 spots remain for 59 other teams to fight for, and every team wants one of those spots. MSC has proven to be the strongest event outside of the CMP and IRI. The average scores are off the charts and the depth is unparalleled. 37 teams have previous OPRs over 40, with half of those (18) over 50. Losing scores over 100 will be the norm and we may see the greatest collection of 200-point matches at one event outside of IRI. With strategy developing and evolving through each week, Ultimate Ascent has turned into a sport of positions. Some positions are obvious (the full court shooters and the climbers), while others are more obscure. Only a few teams have been able to consistently score the colored discs, worth 5 points apiece, from the ground. Even the most elite of the colored disc scorers, 2145 with their 4-disc toss, may not make a big splash at MSC, though each of those teams is capable scoring in other ways. Below are rankings of which teams seem to be the best at each of the most common “positions” in the game. The Full Court Shooters An effective full court shooter (FCS) can light up the scoreboard whether they score in the 2pt or 3pt goal. FCSs have seen the most success during qualifying rounds, when opposing alliances typically do not defend them effectively. They pose a huge threat in elims if they’re allowed to shoot unopposed. These robots fall under this specialty.
The 50-point Climbers and Dumpers The hardest single task in this year's game is climbing the pyramid. The list of capable teams is small, but grows each week as teams finally get everything going. The biggest addition to these robots is the 20pt dump into the top of the pyramid, achieving the 50pt play. These robots have shown the ability to get those 50 points, a potential match-clincher.
The Pickups Floor loading may have been the most overlooked part of the game this year. The opportunity to add 24 extra points in auton is a huge boost, a great advantage right out of the gate, in both qualifying and elimination matches. Teams with pickups can also employ the “Ground and Pound” strategy, where they clean up the misses made by runners and FCSs.
The Cyclers One thing Michigan is not short on is talented and speedy cyclers. Nearly every robot at MSC has the ability to receive discs from the feeder stations and score in the high goal, but some teams have the elite speed and maneuvering capability to get around the best defense. With so many cycling robots, the few we’ve listed here are the cream of the crop.
How it's all going to go down Ranking teams is all well and good, but it’s difficult to predict how the game will evolve and play out at the Michigan State Championship. With the number of full-court shooters, tall defenders will be in high demand and potentially short supply, as that role was typically taken by the 3rd robots in district eliminations. Even when they’re able to take their long shots, winning matches will be difficult for the less accurate full-court shooters, unless they have a pickup robot on their alliance. Pure cyclers may have trouble as well. Though they’ve been able to outclass most of their opponents so far, there are a large number of talented cycling robots at MSC. Captains could look for an additional ability, whether it’s an extra-disc autonomous mode or high climbing. Pickups could have the best time at MSC. To start, there really aren’t very many available. Every alliance will want to get extra discs in auton. Robots that can pick up are a near-necessary partner for an FCS, but they can complement any other robot type well. Two pickups on the same alliance could overmatch an opposing FCS by cleaning up their misses or starve an opposing pickup making them one-dimensional. Versatility will be valuable to avoid being predictable. For that reason, it’s most likely that the Michigan State Champions will be some combination of the three strongest and most versatile teams: 33, 67, and 469. The Killer Bees not only have the best auton and would complement an FCS perfectly, but they can also score independently and effectively. Las Guerrillas may not have the best auton or the best FCS, but their ability to pick up from the floor, shoot in cycles, or shoot full-court will confound opposing alliances. Finally, HOT will run the best FCS at the event and has added a 50-point climb and dump to top it off. Any two of these robots could decisively take the Michigan State Championship. |
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Great analysis!!!
So, Mr. Informer, any chance you'd like to meet for coffee, say, this Saturday morning? Oh yeah, if you happen to have a picklist handy by then, maybe bring that along?? Just a peek???? :cool: |
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For the 50 point climber/dumpers, you forgot 4294, StarTREC out of Lansing. At both Troy and Bedford they climbed and dumped successfully in nearly every match (only missing one in each, if that many). So I would actually rank them higher than every other climber/dumper since (from what I've seen) they're more consistent than any of the teams you mentioned.
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I'm curious to see how this compares to LF's post, as it is well thought out and in depth. Thank's for educating me on some of the lesser known Michigan teams to look out for.
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You had me up to the conclusion.
While I think a pairing between 33/67/469 would indeed be a very strong alliance, I don't feel the powerhouse teams are as dominant as they were last season. Meanwhile, there are several versatile teams on the west side, like 1918 and 2054, that are very strong this year that could make great partners in a winning alliance. I wouldn't rule out an upset, but that's just my .02$ |
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DjScribbles, you are right on the versatile teams part, 33, 67 and 469, have become the most versatile teams and bring different things to the table. If together, it's unlikely they may be stopped. |
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Great post btw - thanks for the info |
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CA winners are the only teams that get to bring their robots to MSC to compete that don't make it with points.
EI and RAS only get to be interviewed on Saturday if their robot didn't make it via the point system. -Clinton- |
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From the Championship registration list today, it looks like 288 has not registered yet from their qualification this weekend but 217 has, from the waitlist I assume since they didn't attend last year.
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217 qualified for MSC because they are ranked 32nd in the state. You can see the full rankings here: http://firstinmichigan.org/FRC_2013/...13_season.html |
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I predict that the winner will not come from the #1 seeded alliance.
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Max Teleop OPR would say we have a 51 to 33 advantage in scoring/match. That data was spot on with our actual teleop scoring contribution/match @ Troy. I know you guys are really good...and any FCS on the opposite alliance scares the crap out of me...so hopefully if we are in the same match, we end up on the same side. Honestly, I hope that we never attempt a FCS all weekend. I doubt that will be the case, but we have plans that will hopefully be more conducive to elimination style play. |
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- 2009 - 217/67/65 - #1 alliance - 2010 - 1918/469/2834 - #1 alliance - 2011 - 33/67/70 - #2 alliance - 2012 - 469/67/830 - #1 alliance If I had to make a prediction, I would say whatever alliance 469 is on, will be the winner. |
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Just to clarify, team 3539 has not yet utilized the feeder station. At both of our events, we've been scoring discs from the ground, averaging 3-6 loads per match. However, with the likely increase in shooter accuracy at MSC, we feel that there will be matches where there aren't enough discs on the floor for us. We're looking to begin utilizing the feeder station for the first time at MSC.
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Overall these are always great to read and bring up great points and always get close to what will actually happen. I think that 469 is the team to beat right now and I have a feeling that they have the inside track to the #1 seed, with 33 being right behind them. I'm still hedging on the bet that there will be no tall full court shooters in the finals. Then again there will be some good ones available for teams like 33 or 469 to pick the second time around, and we all know what that could mean.... |
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Just for fun... Assuming FIM current rankings are used to accurately show team rank...
Alliance,Captain, First pick, Second pick #1 33, 469, 1189 #2 2054, 2474, 3234 #3 1718, 862, 68 #4 1918, 2959, 314 #5 3656, 245, 67 #6 27, 3618, 2619 #7 3414, 2851, 3641 #8 70, 1684, 3539 Honorable mentions to missing teams, 1701, 2612, 2000, 51, 217, 573, 326, 1025, 910, 2771, 494, 1023, 2337, 503 |
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Would be interested in seeing this type of analysis for MAR champs as well
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Alliance 3 all the way! |
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There's one reason why I think the #1 seed might not do it this year: the field is so even that many (if not most) of the matches will be a crap shoot. The schedule will be important and there's a decent chance of a surprise team being the #1 seed. |
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I would actually say, from an FCS perspective, 67 and 314 are really close. I was at Detroit and Troy where both of those teams competed as their second events and showcased really well FCS. Compairing events is tough because while Detroit had a lot of blockers, they teams didn't really use them much, and 314 was given open field several times where as 67 would often use the Gun and Run FCS/Cycler hybrid at Troy. 67 and 469 are much more versatile teams with FCS, but 314 has likely delivered more discs this season from that location. |
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So OPR, by no means, is ever correct. It's a good approximation, but only when you've got the actual, delimited data is when it's effective. I'd like to wait an see how MSC plays out before making any calls, because I can't possibly be accurate based on some teams not having even played for a few weeks, and others changing dramatically over the course of the season. In no way am I saying that Team RUSH is going to to MSC to kick butt and chew bubble gum, except we're all out of bubble gum. I know that the fields we played at were of completely different caliber to the likes of troy and Bedford, with the commanding teams going into MSC, along with other teams up there. I know we're competitive and will give 100%, but I just don't know where that fits within the field. |
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There will not be a FCS in the semifinals. Period. Full court shooters have shown little reliability in elims where people can slap on a blocker to their bot over lunch. Maybe an FCS will be able to squeeze their way into an alliance captain spot, but they will not be successful unless they are versatile or it isn't a main goal of their bot (e.g. 469). The top 4 alliances will all have 7 disc autonomous capability, the top 2 featuring a total 15 disc. Ultimately, 469 seeds first, picks 33, and the third pick just has a strong drivetrain, 3 disc autonomous, and the ability to cycle. Exclusive 30pt climbers will be second picks of 5-8 alliances, and lose in QF.
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I think the odds are higher than in the past that a better-on-paper alliance can be beaten in the eliminations. If I multiply out the probabilities, I think it is more likely than not that the #1 seed will not win the event. |
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We've certainly seen surprise top seeds before. I don't think very many people expected 1918 to seed 1st in 2010 or 217 in 2011, though they were both strong teams. 1918 went all the way, of course. 217 lost in the QFs, but had a great CMP, captaining Newton's 7th alliance to Einstein. |
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On the topic of First seeded alliances, Michigan has been dominated by the first seed, with 9 of 11 district competitions being won by their first seed. The only time a fist alliance didn't win was when one of their main shooters wasn't functioning properly (Troy) or the field was very even to begin with (Livonia.) It's possible that MSC could mirror Livonia, but that won't be clear, as this is the first chance each of these teams has had to compete in a field this diverse and this difficult. |
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All we can say now is let the fun begin and may the best teams win. Lets see how MSC plays out and how close these predictions are.
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I agree of most of what has been said in this thread. I think MSC will be about diversification and adaptation. The more you can do and are willing to adapt to the better off you will be. I feel good about our mix of "talents" but there are a number of things you can not predict but can only react to. The depth of talented teams and robots in this competition is something you don't see at the district level and stategy has to evolve to suit that reality. By rough count we have played with and competed against roughly 1/3 of the teams at MSC leaving 2/3 that we have little or no direct experience with this season. Then factor in if you were at a first district event with a team, they have probably improved significantly. I know it will be a great event.
To our friends from the east side, don't under estimate the west side teams that make it here. I have seen most of them first hand and the ones that make it have earned it and might just suprise you. |
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Is there a webcast tomorrow?
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Matches start at 3pm tomorrow.. |
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The best way to watch matches in Michigan this season is on the FiM YouTube page. They are shot in HD with a GoPro fisheye and posted within minutes of the end of the match.
Hopefully they will have this set up like they have all season. http://www.youtube.com/user/FIRSTinMichigan/videos?view=0 |
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That same view is live at:
http://www.twitch.tv/firstinmichigan |
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Wow -- the practice matches! Routinely putting up 100+ for both sides, flirting with 200 for "just three robots"! This is going to be some show!!! |
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Um, can anyone post a video of 67 going up the tower? I just saw the match where they drove up and "spit" for 20 and am incredibly confused as to where that arm came from...I really don't think there's enough space within their robot for an arm of the size it is to have come out of the belly of their robot...:rolleyes: (but seriously, :confused:)
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I think 217 and 1023's arms work the same way to... although 217 has yet to climb the tower.
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Still has not been a match where both alliances were under 100 points absolutely crazy how much quality there is
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Yes, 67 will be incredibly scary once everything is going 100%. Who am I kidding, they're scary now. |
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Lunchtime Friday observation:
Team 3572 has had 6 matches, their alliance scores have been 160,145,122,112,175,181. They are 1-5; their only win was the 112 score. Ouch. |
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I would guess that 181 is the highest score posted by a losing alliance this year FYI at MSC the LOSING alliance average score is currently 111.5! winning:150.6 So competitive... |
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This spreadsheet has two tables analyzing the Qual schedule: 1) For each team at MSC, what teams were on alliances with them, and 2) For each team at MSC, what teams were on alliances against them http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/at...8&d=1365722972 |
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The average loosing score at MSC is higher than the average winning score at Waterloo. I'm impressed.
EDIT: 33, 67, and 1918 just put up an insane score. New world high score, 247, with 3 foul points. 33 climber for 10, 67 climbed for 30 and dumped 15. 1918 was at the 20 point level, with 3 red disks in possession, when they fell. |
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What was the auton score for Red?
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ohLW...Kd9wHV&index=2 |
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Another match they put up 243 no fouls. |
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I believe they also scored 244 once with 4069. Not sure what the foul points there were. EDIT: Ninja'd. Gregor above me is right in both instances. Waterloo Q28 was the 277 points match, while Q1M2 was 243 points without fouls. Matches in question: Q1M2 and Q28 |
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Have the point rankings for who qualified for championships been posted anywhere? When/where will they be posted?
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http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...2&postcount=49 |
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Ed, great job in getting that done! It was awesome for the teams going, to hear it there at state championship.
And it was great meeting you there and thanks for the work you do. |
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Michigan State Championship Recap
The Michigan State Championship did not disappoint. There were incredibly high scores and incredibly close matches. You’ve heard many of the statistics already, but let’s rehash: The average qualification Winning-Losing score were 153-111. Michigan provided a new World Record High Score of 244*, by an alliance that could’ve scored 45 more if one robot hadn’t fallen off the pyramid. There’s a new World Record Highest Losing Score of 192 in QF 2-1. Michigan has also created a new World Record Autonomous Score of 90, courtesy of the amazing #2 alliance. This event had unmatched depth: the 24th highest OPR was a ridiculously high 49. If the robots did not provide enough drama, the Detroit Public Television webcast brought MSC to another level, presenting FIRST to the world in a way never before seen.
But let’s talk about what you might not have noticed. Nearly one out of four qualification matches had a combined score over 300, plus another 11 matches in eliminations, for a total of 41. This happened only 26 times in Week 1 through 6. Michigan teams scored over 200 points 7 times in qualifications this weekend (the 2054/67/2337 alliance did it twice more in elims). With 67 and 469 involved in three and two of those, respectively, it was no surprise to see them playing for it all in the finals. Defense played a really minimal role in qualifications, with every team trying to show off their scoring abilities. However, once we got into Saturday afternoon, everything changed. Several teams that had played primary scorer for their alliances at districts made a quick transition to playing tough in the trenches. This sudden change in strategy meant that scores did not increase from qualifications to eliminations as much as they usually would at a normal event. The increase in average score of 23% is a long shot lower than the 77% difference between elim and qual scores in week 1 through 6. Speaking of long shots, full-court shooting did not play as much of a role in eliminations as many expected. However, it was the two alliances that most effectively utilized full-court shooting that made it to the final, whether it was 67’s deadly accurate shots or 217’s long passes down the field to their pickup partners. As expected, pure cyclers encountered trouble. Almost every robot in the eliminations cycled at one point or another, but only one alliance that relied heavily on cycling made it to the semifinals. By the finals, every team still in the competition had some other ability. It really was the pickups who were in the greatest demand. Four of the six versatile finalist teams had pickups and the top three alliances had four of the best pickups in Michigan. In fact, the top alliances each had their own specialisations. The #1 alliance played the FCS game to perfection, dedicated one of their robots solely to offensive blocking. The #2 alliance had an auton advantage in every one of their elimination matches, thanks to 3539’s effective 7-disc and 469’s centerline autonomous modes. The #4 alliance could’ve beaten most alliances across the country with their 100-point endgame alone. In the end, I can’t help but wonder what might have happened if 67 hadn’t had drivetrain problems, if 2054 hadn’t had shooter motor wires come unplugged, but I get the feeling that the outcome would have been the same. In the first match of the MSC finals, the #2 alliance tried to simply outscore the #1 alliance and failed magnificently. There’s a saying that “the hardest thing to do in sports is to walk into your locker room at halftime of the Championship game and change the strategy that got you there because it’s not working.” 469 put together a great alliance that could win a lot of different ways and they switched up their strategy. 217 played the defensive menace role beautifully despite jerry-rigging their FCS blocker between finals matches. There’s no questioning that that #2 alliance earned their State Championship. Good luck to all teams and see you next year! ----------------------------------------------------- *Note that this is excluding foul points. The actual score of this match was 247 with 3 foul points. The next highest score worldwide was 243. |
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