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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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Your robot is awesome! Congrats on a job well done! |
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Ready is anybody ever ready for such a great event?
The Digital Goats (team 829) are excited to be playing on Newton with such great teams. |
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I've been spending a lot of time pre-scouting this division and I can't wait to see everyone in person at Champs! Team 2052 KnightKrawler is super excited for our first ever appearance. Make sure to stop by our pit and say hi. Three days until matches start, SO EXCITED!
Take a peak at what our bot looks like here: KnightKrawler Video |
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
We've spent the last week re-working our hopper. We've put roughly 400 discs through it, tweaking it and figuring out what we'd be best at. It only jammed twice early on in, even with violent shake tests to simulate on-field impacts. As of Saturday, our pyramid shots are 100% consistent in under 1.5 seconds. We can now also do some full-court shooting, but we'll have to see which works best timing-wise. You know, maximize expected value per time and all.
I seriously hope we're now able to play the game the way its meant to be played, and hope to give our fellow Newtonians a good showing! Our scouting indicates that Newton may be one of the more dynamic divisions strategy-wise. Good luck to all! |
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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Using the Max OPR Data and the preliminary match schedule that FIRST has published, I did a little prediction spreadsheet.
If a match is less than 10 pts in differential, I have highlighted the predicted scores in yellow. Otherwise, the winning alliance score is highlighted. |
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
I used the preliminary match schedules to simulate the matches using OPR and then calculate the standings. I used each team's best OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating their contribution to a match. I also used each team's world Auto, Teleop, and Climb OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating the rest of the standings.
Everything appears to match MechEng83's data. Code:
Rank Team Wins Losses Ties Matches QP AP TP CPCode:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScoreCode:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScoreCode:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScore |
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Wait the match lists came out?
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I'm surprised Shaun, you're usually more on top of this...
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...hreadid=116335 |
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It was released in today's first FRC Blog post: http://www.usfirst.org/roboticsprogr...atch-schedules |
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At least I'm predicted to lead the Division in Autonomous. :cool: If that prediction holds true then every victory we steal moves us to the head of the next win/loss category. Might make some noise here yet. ;) |
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Are you sure you used the highest OPR for each team, and not just the first? I know that in the case of Team 116, your table is showing the lower OPR of our two events. -dave . |
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Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).
It would be interesting for each team to do this on an internal basis so they can see how their efforts leading up to champs may potentially change the outcomes. |
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While I can't speak specifically to Joe's calculations, they match up with mine. Even using MaxOPR of 42.6 (which I see for 116 was a vast improvement from your first regional) the predicted win-loss is 1-7. With so few matches and such a large field of teams, I think that luck in schedule will be more of a factor than performance in seeding. |
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Or, are you suggesting using some statistical variation on the OPR values of each team using the current schedule? If so, what variation coefficients would you use? I think this might be a very interesting simulation, but I'm not sure what the valid variation would be. I might need to dig further into the OPR calculations to find some sort of confidence interval. |
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So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others. Your other interpretation is more interesting. With some small tweaks the OPR calculation can also be used to generate mean/variance parameters for a maximum likelihood estimate of each team's performance. That's a better basis for real Monte-Carlo simulation, but we'd still need to simulate over a large number of potential schedules. |
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Such simulations can also be used as motivation in the decision making process -- do we keep practicing what we're doing, or do we try a different approach for this match? How would that decision change if we have 3 hours of consecutive pit time prior to that large-spread match vs. if we only have 30 minutes? If the point spread is large, with little predicted chance for us to win, we may take more risks for those matches. Simulations may be more accurate for prediction than bean-count scouting early on in a schedule. Yet once we've hit everyone's 3rd or 4th match, I'd much rather have the disc-by-disc replay than a regression stat with few data points. Behavioral analysis also helps. |
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It's going to be exciting! Would simulating with a Monte-Carlo over a large number of schedules be nearly identical to relying on OPR for those same schedules? |
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For the values used in the calculating the Auto, Teleop, and Climb in the rankings, I used Ed Law's world ranking, because that was the only convenient place to get those values. Because of 116's performance in North Carolina, those values are significantly lower then the best OPR. 116's best OPR is comprised of 11.2 Auto 8.8 Climb 23.1 Teleop. Their World OPR is 12.3 Auto, 7 climb, and 3 Teleop. Since Teleop was where the major discrepancy is, and it is the last tiebreaker, there is little difference in 116's ranking whether best or world OPRs are used, although it could affect other teams. If someone had a convenient list of best OPR event broken out by Auto, Climb, and Teleop, I would have used that. |
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Match scores are based on Ed Law's Max OPR data for each team and Ether's world Auto/Climb/Teleop OPR data (linearly scaled to match Ed's Max OPR values). This gives 10 sets of qualification rankings, one for each of the simulated schedules. Here's a summary of each team's average, best, worst and "in top 8" rankings across those 10 schedules: Code:
Team Rank Best Worst Top8?Picking the most extreme examples, team 341 would rank either 3rd or last, based purely on their randomly chosen alliance partners and opponents. So I think we can conclude that there is a fairly high degree of scheduling luck, just as we expected. |
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Of course the basic underlying assumption (every team scores exactly "OPR" points each match) is fundamentally flawed, but that doesn't dilute the importance of schedule. |
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I would expect 1986 to at the very least "make some noise here" :rolleyes: I picked you guys with the 2nd pick in my fantasy league so I hope you pan out for me! |
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So 1986 seeded in the top 10 7 out of 10 times, yet not even close in the prelim schedule (all OPR based and every one guaranteed to be wrong).
Man, that's a tough schedule. |
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Avg Med Mode Min Max StDev Top8 #1Code:
Avg Med Mode Min Max StDev |
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As expected that almost exactly mirrors OPR.
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At the old Maryland State Fair Robotics Competition, the schedule was created by hand. So, when a team did not show up for the event, there was no time to re-run the entire schedule for obvious reasons. It turned out that a team did not show up at all, but was still counted as a partner in the scheduled matches. If they were your partner you played 1 against 2 for that match. At the end of day one, after about 8 or 9 matches, the missing team was in 4th place. When that happened, I brought my whole team over to see the standings. It was very instructive as to how a favorable schedule can boost a team into the top 8. Just thought I would share. :) |
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
From the 100 schedule data, the standard deviation in rank was used to calculated the 95% rank and determine the outliers. There were 6 outliers. No one has a 3 sigma outlier schedule.
2389 has an easy schedule. Their average rank is 75 with a standard deviation of 18, but predicted rank is 36. Here are the 6 teams with outlier schedules Code:
Avg StDev Actual |
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Because there are never enough ways to look at the data, I ran a "Strength of Schedule" calculation based on the max OPR results. It's fairly simple. Rank the OPR's 1-100, then add opponents OPR ranks and subtract other alliance partner OPR ranks. [If a team is Red 2, then add the rank of Blue 1, Blue 2, and Blue 3, then subtract Red 1 and Red 3. Red 2's OPR rank does not factor into the calculated SoS for Red 2]
Lower raw numbers mean a harder schedule. Here are the results: Code:
Strength of Schedule |
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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Well, I guess we have our challenge laid out for us. -dave . |
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Was just watching from home and saw 217 begining to climb and deploying the same arm 1114 and 67 uses. does 217 now have a 30pt climb?
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not even 10 points for 217 with their attempted climb. does anyone know though if they have the ability to do a 30pt climb
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Is there no audio on the NASA webcast for Newton? Or is it just me...:mad:
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Audio is back on Newton! Just in time for Match 60 (in which 1676 is playing...) :D
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I've been videotaping 195's matches(except forgot the first one) and posting them on my youtube channel, so if you have a robot in any of our matches and would like to see the match video proceed here
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
I know it's late but Woohoo! Awesome job to 225 and 1741 for breaking 200* with us in 89. (Then) high score of the field--though congrats 1511, 1538 and 4487! We're climbing 30 with a vengance now! Two practice field sessions plus two quals, one with 100% shot accuracy (did bounce a couple otherwise). I know we're a little late for the Looking Forward prediction, but better late than never, right?
*We got set on breaking 200 on our way to Mid-Atlantic Championship gold, so now 341 can stop ragging on us for not managing it. :p |
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
1538 just won their match, went undefeated, and clinched the #1 spot.
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