Chief Delphi - Archimedes 2013!!!

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Chief Delphi (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/index.php)

- Championship Event (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=12)

- - Archimedes 2013!!! (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=116165)

M.O'Reilly

22-04-2013 15:23

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Unfortunately, I think performance this year depends greatly on match schedule (more so than years past).

3314 is a great shooter. The won the Bridgewater district as the #1 seed, but then they were on the outside of elims at MARC for who knows what reason. I can't explain that, except for poor luck of the draw at MARC.

Drawing from MARC, alliances that succeeded in elims did not focus on defense whatsoever. The only dedicated defenders were to block full court shooters, and it was extremely effective. I think an FCS that can't get under the pyramid even making elims is far fetched. It's too easy to stop.

If I had a 3 disc autonomous mode, I wouldn't trade it to stop the opposing alliance from getting an extra two discs on the center line. Perhaps after you shoot, but certainly not before.

Tom Ore

22-04-2013 16:07

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

A journalism student traveled with our team to the 10,000 Lakes regional. Here is the video she made.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYHmgSzLcHU

Link07

22-04-2013 16:30

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by M.O'Reilly (Post 1266383)

Not to take anything away from them(they did almost win two events), but 3314 also had a fairly easy schedule at Bridgewater, IIRC.

k20002222

22-04-2013 16:38

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by M.O'Reilly (Post 1266383)

...

Chris Hibner

22-04-2013 16:38

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday (Post 1266355)

OPR predictions are generally 81% correct within an event. With the number of improvements teams make between the regional and championship, I think it will sway close matches significantly.

Using OPR from each team's best district event, OPR predictions were 82.4% accurate for MSC.

I think it will probably be right around 80% for CMP as well.

efoote868

22-04-2013 16:43

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry (Post 1266327)

I'll go about 81% correct. OPR calculations hover around that number.

As pointed out earlier that's within an event, using all match data to recalculate and fit what would've happened if OPR was 100% accurate.

Also, I would like to point out that OPR predictions using Friday's match data to predict Saturday performance at Crossroads was 16 for 24 (or 25 if you count ties being wrong), and Crossroads had a significantly higher average OPR than most other regional competitions, similar to what Archimedes is predicted to have.

M.O'Reilly

22-04-2013 17:36

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Link07 (Post 1266413)

Not to take anything away from them(they did almost win two events), but 3314 also had a fairly easy schedule at Bridgewater, IIRC.

That may be, but I think it speaks volumes about the style of game this year. With 100 teams and 8 matches it's going to be a dog fight to get in the top8, and EVERY autonomous shot matters. The 6-7 fantastic robots you see in this division may not have their fate in their own hands; that's up to the match schedule gods.

stephenmcd71

22-04-2013 17:44

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by efoote868 (Post 1266323)

Anyone want to guess the % of correct predictions at the end? I'm going to say it'll be about 65%.

Im hoping there wrong too.. and I would say around 75%

Kevin Leonard

22-04-2013 17:49

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

This division just got WAY less predictable. I think if a non-favorite team seeds first (i.e. 3314 or 11 like the spreadsheet says) the field becomes wide open for some very interesting alliance selections. I expect multiple declines and potentially some powerful low seed alliances.

brennonbrimhall

22-04-2013 17:57

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Ross (Post 1266271)

I used the preliminary match schedules to simulate the matches using OPR and then calculate the standings. I used each team's best OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating their contribution to a match. I also used each team's world Auto, Teleop, and Climb OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating the rest of the standings.

Don't like the predictions? Go out and prove them wrong :)

Is there a particular reason you used OPR and not CCWM?

stephenmcd71

22-04-2013 18:10

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

With the preliminary schedule and the results that came with that I think every division is gonna have a fun, exciting, and down to the wire finals. I wish everyone good luck and safe travels on there way to St. Louis

Joe Ross

22-04-2013 19:46

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by brennonbrimhall (Post 1266459)

Is there a particular reason you used OPR and not CCWM?

I wanted match scores that could be used to calculate reasonable rankings. Since CCWM is related to winning margin and not match scores, it wouldn't have been as useful. I've seen lots of people look at the accuracy of OPR predictions, but haven't for CCWM predictions. If someone has data that shows that CCWM predictions are more accurate, I might consider doing it for next year.

A slightly better way to get match scores would have been to add the alliance's OPRs and subtract their opponents DPRs, but that's a lot more work.

cmrnpizzo14

22-04-2013 21:50

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by the.miler (Post 1266078)

In addition to our shooting game, no ceilings can hold us now! Team 846 has gotten the climb working, and we are continuing to work right now to shave precious seconds off it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ls-stEVTN8

The next step is the same geometry, but we're not climbing for 30 on that test pyramid. We'll see what we can do on the field :)

Look out for our flashlight, improved shooting, floor pickup, and climbing game on the Archimedes field!

3173 will be keeping an eye on you guys at our end of season party this week!! Good luck to our captains from Boston, we hope that you guys have better luck at this competition!

Also, we felt bad that you did not have enough buttons to give you guys at the end of Boston, if you can tell us a way to send them to you we could mail them or something before CMP. And our head programmer picked you guys in our Fantasy FIRST draft last night ;)

Allen B.

22-04-2013 22:15

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamHeard (Post 1264875)

973 won't jump in on the collab'd scouting at event, but we'd love to share in the picture hunt.

We have 80+ teams already, probably 30-40 of which could be better quality. I'm leaving for a trip now, but our scouts will take over from here and post an updated list of teams soon. Maybe even dump the current pictures in a publically available spot for everyone.

Here is a link to 973's collection of pictures; We are still looking for a few more.

JohnSchneider

22-04-2013 22:32

Re: Archimedes 2013!!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Allen B. (Post 1266608)

Here is a link to 973's collection of pictures; We are still looking for a few more.

Thanks a bunch for this.

Is there any way to put it in numerical order :o its a bit hard to use currently :(

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