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Re: Make your Champs predictions!
This year could lead to some great story lines at champs(like always). With match strategy and scouting being at its highest, some predictions are better left a *bit more open. These are just fun predictions and they are my own and in no way are impacted from team 3885. I will probably be wrong on almost all of these, but it is fun to speculate.;)
A teams from south of the Mason Dixon line will win the WCA. A full court shooter will win the EI Award. A 7 disk auton will win the INC Award. A person from north of the border will win the WFA. This year has a nice probably of having more International than US teams on Einstein. My Division Favorites: Archimedes: 254-469-3245 Curie: 2056-67-16(Yes they could fall this far due to being inconsistent) Galileo: 118-1114-3284 Newton: 1986-180-3756 A beats C, G beats N, and A beats G due to 118 running out of air. "My Sleepers": (These teams are not getting talked about enough) Archimedes: 2590-11-525 Curie: 1983-1918-1421 Galileo: 111-125-2481 Newton: 3476-217-1718 C beats A, N beats G, G beats C due to 111 having too much power drained from their LED's Of course these predictions will more than likely become completely disproved during next week, but it is nice to guess. Also I have only seen three of the teams that I listed so this was complete guesswork on my part. |
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I'm going to go off on a limb here and say I think that Archimedes will win. My prediction is that 987, 33, and 314 will beat 469, 254, and someone else in division finals.
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One team I'd add under sleepers in Galileo is 2337. |
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(Sorry, I couldn't help it. It was teed up too nicely.) |
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When you look at teams like 111, 2169, 1477, 610, 447, 3284, etc. it's really hard to predict who will win, given the snake draft. |
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They have also been one of the few teams that I have ever seen(except for maybe 233) to make a large amount of drastic changes to their robot throughout the year. This impressive feat shouldn't harm them but it has hurt in terms of getting their robot to its usual HOF quality during the season. If they fall to the second round again watch out. They still shoot well but they are not an elite shooter in terms of accuracy. *I want to add that Team 16 is a terrific team that helped to make the Razorback Regional a major success. These problems in this post will more than likely be overcome next week by championships. |
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Leave the Pampers in Mountain Home. Team 16 would be one of the ideal teams in Curie due the Bomb Squad's World Famous drivetrain. This puts you all in a spot to become the premier team to become an Orlando Pace for any Full Court Shooter. Team 16 also is a very capable offensive bot, but it does have some inconsistencies(see post above.) I can't wait to see you all next week and I'm sorry if I scared you at all.:o John |
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Also, I heard that their driver loves playing defense. |
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oh, that hurts ... :D |
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Incontinent: Having no or insufficient voluntary control over urination or defecation. *Edit: Beaten to it... |
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Archimedes
Winners: 2nd Seed 254, 987, 2468 Finalists: 1st Seed 33, 469, 71 Curie Winners: 4th Seed *2056, 3539, 3414 Finalists: 7th Seed **1918, 148, 1923 *Team declined the 2nd Seed **Team declined the 3rd Seed Galileo Winners: 1st Seed 1114, 118, 3528 Finalists: 3rd Seed 1477, 1806, 2474 Newton Winners: 1st Seed 1986, 2054, 217 Finalists: 2nd Seed 1718, 1538, 2826 Einstein 2013 World Champions: 254, 987, 2468 Finalists: 1114, 118, 3528 I started to cheer when I saw 254 climb within the last 8 seconds to win the rubber match against Galileo...then I realized it was all in my head :( A man can dream though ;) |
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-JTN |
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;-) --Michael P.S. Looking forward to saying "Hi" to you and your family! Can you believe our good fortune to catch a wait-list spot?!! First 3 seasons in FRC = 3 CHAMPS... THANKS to you guys for starting us off in 2011!! --MB |
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Both are completely intact, I promise. :) Congrats on the spot at world championships! I will be glad to see you there!
-JTN |
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Finally! Somebody picked us in Curie! Thanks!
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That being said Wave's two finalist finishes are quite telling of what they are capable of. Do I believe that they could seed as an alliance captain? Sure. However, from what I've observed of 2826, I believe they will not. Most likely they will fall between picks 5-15. Do not make the mistake of underestimating the strength and the depth of Newton this year. What my picks show is that in some form or fashion Wave will make it to their divisional finals. Unfortunately, there is one pick I am regretting. In Galileo, I took the third seed of 1477, 1806, and 2474 over the second seed of 245 and 2169(sorry third bot but I forgot your number.) Even though King Tec is a slightly better FCS than S.W.A.T., I thought that Torque and Excel could out score Adambots and their 3rd robot...but after watching more match videos of these teams I am not so certain. It will most likely depend on whether or not Texas Torque can get their wing autonomous scoring 5+ discs. Lastly, I made a critical error this year when I selected four Texas teams to make it to their divisional finals. This has never happened before and honestly I don't think that this historical Texas event will occur this year. The max number of Texas teams this year with at least a divisional finalist appearance will be 3. |
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Here's my short and simple prediction:
either 2169 or 1114 wins it all. I have a lot of faith in the FCS that is 2169. Pair them with 2 good auto robots and the game is over. |
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I guarantee there will be at least one full-court shooter on Einstein, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one from every division. |
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And if you're using a defender to babysit an FCS while they're pyramid running, you've lost all offense from that bot. |
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As for 118, they have the 5th highest max OPR. Looking at match footage, much of that is their incredibly fast shooting and their 7-disc autonomous that doesn't disappoint. I still wonder how they can shoot that fast. |
Make your Champs predictions!
Galileo: 1114, 2485 (or 610) , 1806 (2nd seed)
Archimedes: 254, 469, 1334 (1st seed) Newton: 1986, 1718, 190 (1st seed) Curie: 1717, 3539, 2168 (4th seed, becoming 3rd seed with the 67 selection) (defeating 2056,67, 968 who is the #1 seed) Galileo versus Newton = Galileo in game 3 Curie versus Archimedes = Curie in game 3 Galileo versus Curie = (gut says if 1114 did beat 1986 go with Galileo, but pretty close match gotta admit) |
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And I think GvN would go in two matches in your case. But whatever, that's why it's predictions. |
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I've been doing a lot of thinking and I can't decide which of these two options would be the best
Captain) Strong cycle bot with a 7 disc auto and 30pt climb First Pick) Strong FCS with a hang Second Pick) FCS with a hang The advantage of this setup is that with two FCS and a cycler your opposing alliance has either the option to let you shoot like a boss or choose to block your FCS, thus reducing their scoring capabilities. With this setup even if you miss the FCS shots then your floor pickup captain can pick up the missed disc for maximum points. Captain) Strong cycle bot with a 7 disc auto and 30pt climb First Pick) Strong FCS with a hang Second Pick) Strong defender with a 18pt auto and at least a 20pt climb The advantage of this setup is that your FCS and cycler can both shoot while your defender cripples your competitors FCS. The only thing is that there are many FCS bots that can shoot around or through, 1706, a defensive robots guard. I think a FCS is extremely important to a winning alliance, but this competition will be won by great cycling robots and climb points to a lesser extent |
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At the level we're talking about, which is divisional elminations, it's not about possible points scored, but how consistently high the scoring is of each robot, regardless of opposition. A cycler who is known to bob and weave and put up 15/16 discs a match could see more value than an FCS that can kick out 24 discs but miss a bunch because of any factor affecting accuracy.
Those are points the other alliance can steal at this level, where you could have three robots on an alliance who can each clear more than a third of the discs behind the wall each match. I'm slightly dismissive towards FCS robots because I see them falling to second pick in a lot of cases. For 2nd picks, alliances will probably look for consistent scoring in any form over the way you get the points to the hole, and cyclers are usually more accurate than FCSes, because dialing it in at a close range is not something that happens. |
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There's more than one way to stop a FCS. If the robots on your alliance work together and have good DTs, there's no reason that you should be beaten by a *pure* FCS.
A FCS that can also cycle well is an entirely different animal. |
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Now based on the teams and divisions we're talking about, the FCS, GnDPkp, and Cycler will have varying strengths based on which one is the captain. In Galileo, for example, 1114 could be the alliance captain or first pick, being the strong cycler on the alliance. However, in Newton, the FCS could be the captain/first pick being that it has such a strong set of FCS's. Archimedes is going to be decided by the ground pickups- and some times in the division can be all three roles depending on their alliance partners (i.e. 469 and 987). Curie is a very balanced division, but chances are goos that a team like 2056 seeds first and picks 67, making the cycler the weaker alliance partner in the winning alliance. |
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Archimedes 33, 254, 379, 469, 987, 2154, 2590, 3310, Curie 103, 233, 968, 1310, 1540, 1684, 1717, 2056, 3539, Galileo 118, 1323, 1477, 2175, 2337, 2474, 3528, Newton 1538, 1986, 2054, 3476 |
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254, 1986. |
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I predict that at least 3 teams to play on Einstein will be from Michigan... A fairly safe bet too.:D
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Also all the robots that I said have a 7 disc auto were one's I found using the Google Doc scouting sheets for championships. Sorry if some of my information was wrong |
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Although I will say auto is important it is not the be all end all of strategy. At South Florida the only 2 teams with the ability to pick up and score disks in auto finished rank 6 and 36 respectively, They teamed up in alliance against my team and in each of our matches with them we started autonomous 20 points behind each time and won those matches by 5 and 36 points.
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For Curie Division, honest thoughts about our robot team 1262, and what could help us get picked for elims, (adding lexan shield, we are going to work on shooting a bit faster and backing up to feeder quicker).
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Also, i'm willing to bet all of my internet points that 610, 11, 245, and 125 will go very early during alliance selection. Cycling ability is important, and these teams are good enough to keep pace with floor pickups. |
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If MSC gave us any preview, floor pick-ups were the main attraction. With 4 out of 6 in the finals (469, 2054, 2337 and 3539). The the last two robots? effectively were FCS. The majority of pure cycle bots did not make it so far.
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Especially given auto, I think it's a given that no alliance on Einstein will be strictly cyclers. |
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All this talk really shows what this game has developed into: A shooting game with 10 point hangs.
Very few robots mentioned here climb for 20 or 30. The few include 1114, 67, etc. kinda upset about that because some of the most memorable matches are with those that are determined by if a robot can climb to 30 (and sometimes dump). To this day i will always remember being in Boston during the finals. I have never heard so much people screaming in excitement and anticipation for the outcome of a match. Team 88's climb and dump was the most exciting thing to ever hit Boston! With out a doubt. Now imagine a 30 point climb on Einstein, MAYBE even with a fall. |
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Couple of things:
1) There will be no all Canadian alliance, and certainly not one capable of reaching Einstein. There will probably be some alliances that are 2/3 Canadian, and one of those alliances may even make Einstein, but no Eh Team reprise. Galileo has the majority of the strong Canadians (610, 1114, 1241, 2809, 4039, 4069), with Curie coming second (1310, 2056, 4814), and Archi has 1334. 1114 is the strongest in Galileo, but none of the Canadians in G have enough strength in auto to seed #1. Most likely, Galileo's #1 alliance will be 118/1114. 2056 is strong enough to seed #1 in Curie, but they're not going to be looking for another ground pickup that does the 7-under-the-pyramid (like 1310 does). 1310 or 2056 would have to learn how to do a wing-to-wing 5 disc auto if they're to be allied. 67's FCS+1114-esque climb-n-dump is deadly, and would probably be a stronger ally than 1310, even with a wing-to-wing. Yes, 1310 has a FCS too, but its not as quick or accurate as 67's. 2) It is unlikely that 1114 will remain the only 4 digit team to win. Too much of the strong firepower comes from newer teams for 1114 to remain the highest numbered team to win. About the only way I can see this continuing is if Archimedes is our eventual champions, with an alliance of 254/469/[other sub-1000 team (maybe 11,33,51,71,365, or 910)] 3) There will be at least two Canadian teams on Einstein, with possibly as many as 4, but they will all come from Curie and Galileo. Obviously the easy choice would be to suggest that 1114 and 2056 make Einstein, but its likely that 1310, 4814, 1241, 610, 4039, or 4069 could end up along for the ride, regardless of if 1114 or 2056 make it. |
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I'm not going to attempt to predict the 2nd picks of each alliance because there's no telling what would be available or what goes through the minds of the alliance captains, but here's my picks:
Archimedes: 254 and 987 Curie: 2056 and 1717 Galileo: 1114 and 118 Newton: 1986 and 2054 Einstein: Galileo over Newton, Archimedes over Curie Archimedes over Galileo |
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-RC |
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I wouldn't dismiss the effectiveness of cyclers in the playoffs, especially when you consider the amount of discs left on the floor at the end of autonomous mode and the first 30 seconds of the match following. A cycler that is capable of making full court shots may be a good choice for an alliance with one or two floor pickup. The cycler can take full court shots and the misses can be gobbled up by the floor pickups. That has been our strategy throughout the season. The other thing here is that all of the shots taken have to be quality shots with low possibility of error. This is especially important for the floor pick-up bots because they don't want to pick the same disc up more than once. Nate |
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Edit: Yes yes, I agree. A team with more auto points has a great shot of seeding above 1114 (possibly even 118). |
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They were the highest scoring robot at SVR in autonomous and teleop points-averaging about 80 disc points per match, IIRC. |
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Also, 469 prefers to cycle despite an excellent ground pickup, and no one is going around saying 469 has a slow pickup. If you have 4 frisbees far away from eachother, it's easier to go to the feeder station and get 4 instead of driving around the entire field scouring for discs. If you noticed, 254 and 2056 always had a supply of discs close to their scoring location. |
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As the strategist whose team did a pretty good job of allowing you only one cycle in one of the qualification matches, I thought playing defense against you and preventing those cycles wasn't that difficult. And the 18 point autonomous is going to be pretty well neutralized in St. Louis. I'm going to point to a few matches: Quals 25 (teamed with two 30 point climbers, managed 42 points total) and Quals 83 (an embarrassing 31 point total, of which I'm pretty sure our autonomous was responsible for 6-12). |
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I'd just like to step in and say please keep posts in this thread to actual predictions, not arguments about certain team's abilities. Please argue in a thread meant for that. Thanks!
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Archimedes- 469, 987, 78 (not sure if it will go that deep)
Curie- 2056, 67, 120 Galileo- 118, 1114, 4069 Newton- 1986, 3476, 190 Just my thoughts |
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For match 25 trying to get both 30 point climbers to work when they interfere with each other and us and one of them wasn't counted also that match we had a problem with our driving we had since fixed Match 83 we were focusing more on making our future alliance then worrying about that match which was a bad move people were able to defend us but we have practice getting around a defensive bot and added in more maneuverability with our controller like spinning 180 on a dime to do faster loading, and have improved our wheel locking mechanisms to make it harder to be pushed if we need to act as a defender and just stall people even if we don't have pushing force |
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I think 1569 would be a great steal for 1986 in Newton ;) haha but we can't wait to show everyone we can do!!! Nothing way over the top just consistent, and strong!!!
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4451 is getting picked in Newton. I guarantee it.
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The only team that does that type of thing is 1114. They are one seriously polished outfit. Their pit was spotless and so neat. |
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Their bumpers are so shiny too...
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Here are my predictions as seen in my April Absurdity Bracket:
Archimedes: 469, 987, 2468 Curie: 2056, 67, 4080 Galileo: 118, 1114, 2512 Newton: 1986, 195, 2789 Curie and Galileo win in the first round and Curie breaks the curse by winning with the combination of 2 full court shooters/possible cycles and the amazing ground pickup of 2056. I really think that any of these four alliances could win it all (if they get formed) and I just can't want untill I see the outcome this year!! |
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At the crossroads regional, the finals were 6 robots who could all go underneath the pyramid and had a ten point hang and no full court shooter. This regional scored the most points out of every other regional. Something like 2000 points were scored in eliminations alone. I think this is a very good representation of what einstein will be like, with slightly higher scores. The lack of variation is astounding. Einstein will run a risk of running out of game pieces. If that is the case, and I'm sure it will happen, then it comes down to climb points and who has the better autonomous. A team able to put the coloured frisbees into the pyramid consistently and quickly could decide the game.
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I really do think that a 469/254 or 987/another team alliance would absolutely demolish everything in their path, even a superb showing by any other alliance including the likes of 2056, 1114, 118, 1986, etc. 2056 and 1114 might be the 2 best robots, but those two with a top ten bot just can't beat 469's sublime shooting rate and either 254's or 987's amazing features that they have to offer. I mean, a razor-fast 30 point climb with a competent shooter and a complimentary 7-disc autonomous in 254 or the dazzling manoeuvring, complimentary 7-disc autonomous and the laser-sharp (ha) full court shooting of 987? It makes me shudder to think of how amazing that kind of alliance would be.
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I like how everyone seems to agree on Curie and Galileo captain/first pick (2056/67 and 118/1114). Even Archimedes we mostly seem to agree 2 of (254/469/987) will probably be the winning alliance.
My suspicion is that both the Curie and Galileo pairs will be looking for a floor pickup bot with a wing-to-wing 5 disc. IMO, a reliable wing-to-wing 5 is probably one of the single most desirable features to the top alliances at CMP. 469's got it, 1477 was working on it. Anyone else have one? Lots of teams are doing the center-forward 7 disc. Many of those will be top seeds, and pulling the 15 disc perfect auto requires that plus a wing-to-wing 5, or an as yet unseen 9 disc auto, with a 1241-esque pickup, albeit needing more ground clearance than 1241 has. |
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How has no one said Team 33! They too are a great pick and their ground pickup is even better than most
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Now that the preliminary match schedules have come out I want to see if anybody will revise their picks...
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A-987, 254, 469
C-67, 148, 4564 G- 2512, 2169, 610 upset 118, 1114, 125 N- 1986, 2052, 2826 C beats A G beats N C beats G |
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