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FRC Blogged - Standard District Points Ranking System More Info
Posted on the FRC Blog, 11/7/13: http://www.usfirst.org/roboticsprogr...80%93More-Info
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54 regionals x 6 qualifiers per regional = 324 unique slots.
32(FiM) + 18(MAR) + 24(NE) + 24(PNW) = 98 324 + 98 = 422 They are really banking on 22 slots being double dipped. 22 seems like a lot to hope they get taken twice. |
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16, 20, 45, 51, 67, 103, 111, 126, 148, 151, 175, 190, 191, 236, 254, 341, 359, 365, 610, 842, 1114, 1241, 1538, and 3478. I would wager 80% of these teams earn a spot this year, so that's 19 of 22 solved right there. |
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Great Job Frank, thanks for always explaining the reasoning behind the decisions. |
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For example, when 254 and 987 won SD last year, no wildcards were generated. When 254 later won San Jose, wildcards were generated. |
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Helpful update... thanks Frank & Co!
Glad they're going with a proportional allocation... definitely the logical and fair way to go. I also like that the teams that qualified for CMP before the start of season to be in addition to the calculated proportional allocation. It mentions in the point system document under awards that the DCMP Chairmans', EI, and RAS winners auto-qualify to CMP. It doesn't mention if DCMP Winners also get an auto-qualify to CMP. Also doesn't mention how many Chairmans', EI, and RAS winners there are... I believe at MSC last year there were 3, 1, and 1 (respectively). Does anyone know more about if this element will be "regulated" or if regions are going to have to decide for themselves? |
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Keep in mind getting into MSC itself with upwards of 260 michigan teams is very hard. And almost all of the teams getting into champs by qualifying at MSC generally deserve to be there.
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It seems more unfair to me if a district sends 2x as many teams %wise. |
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Adding more teams to MSC stills send the same top teams, but dilutes one of the most talent rich events. |
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New England has 24 slots for 161 teams. That's 14.9%. MAR has 18 slots for 108 teams. That's 16.7%. Texas has 111 teams and four regionals, for 24 slots. That's 21.6%. Ontario has 113 teams and 5 regionals, for 30 slots. That's 26.5%! In fact, qualifying for the MI State Championship is harder than qualifying for the World Championship in Ontario. Only 23.3% of Michagan teams qualify for their State Championship. I think it's fair to say that the size of MSC could be increased without diluting the talent at the event. These numbers could change slightly as more rookies register, but they'll still show that it's tougher to qualify for the World Championship in Michigan than elsewhere. |
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Those last 2 Texas and Ontario percentages are a little misleading. They are open regionals, not districts. Teams from other areas can win those slots.
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Eight non Texas teams qualified from Texas last year. Ignoring borders, around 15.5% of all teams qualify for Championship. |
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If we look at the number of districts, and the number of spots feeding to championships.. (I assumed 40 teams per district) FIM = 32/260 teams = 12.3% PNW = 24/80 teams = 30% NE = 24/180 teams = 13.3% MAR = 38/120 teams = 15% I have heard rumblings around Michigan of a need to add another district to support the number of rookie teams that joined this year. That will be 14 districts, about 280 teams, and a 11.4% TORC is currently waitlisted for both our events we wanted to attend. So yes, when you make it to MSC you are halfway there. You've eliminated the 200 teams you were capable of beating from the pool. Now all you need to do is finish the weekend better than average... That is easier said than done. One dose not simply walk into Championships through MSC. (but it is kind of exciting either way.) |
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29 slots were given out to teams (GSR did not have a Rookie All star). Of the 29 only 20 teams were from New England. Of these 20 teams only 18 attended the World Championship. Of the teams who came to New England events 7 of them qualified for the Championship. Of the 20 New England winners two of them double qualified (126 BOS winners and RCA & 2648 PTR winners and EI). The way I see it you could argue that NE should be getting 30 but if every district took what they originally had you won't fix the scalability issue. If anyone thought NE our any district would keep their original number they weren't looking at the reality of FIRST moving forward. Also looking at NE events in the past, our events have been home to many teams from outside of our borders such as Canada, New York, out the country, and many teams who traveled to New England over the years. Technically, New England will be sending the most teams we have ever sent to the Championship in 2014 which is something I am very excited about! |
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BrendanB - The one thing you didn't include in your analysis was the NE teams that qualified at events outside of NE regionals. I'm just curious where that number puts us. I would argue that those teams should count in your analysis because they are included in the total district spots in the current system. I personally need to try to remember that and I will try to remind myself of that when I start thinking "it's not fair..." It's never been about fair; it is about learning and inspiring. It is about life, and everyone knows that life is not fair. At least that's what my mom always told me. ;) |
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Note that you can still compete, but the slots available for the district is reduced when a district team wins a slot at an outside regional. |
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It's almost looking like Michigan might need 15 district events! Counting TORC Michigan is at 280 teams at the moment, so one team more would necessitate 15 district events. Of course that depends on how final numbers shake out and if any teams drop after the payment deadline. Regarding proportional representation, Michigan currently has 280 of the 2634 teams in FRC, or 10.6% of all teams. Proportional repression would net Michigan about 43 spots from a 400 team world championship, but I'm pleased with the increase to 32 and the promise that it'll go to proportional next year. There's only so much FRC can change/fix at once. |
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So this year about 16% of our teams will move on to CMP. |
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I went to here, http://www.usfirst.org/roboticsprogr...egional-events counted the number of districts, and multiplied by 40 and divided by 2. 40 teams in each district, each team plays two districts. When I counted the districts, I did not scroll all the way down, and I had PNR as 4 districts, it is actually 9 listed. So based on that, PNR = 24/180 = 13.3% This is a rough estimate on the max total number of teams the district structure, with the regionals listed today could support, based on 40 teams per district. |
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The USFIRST Website includes teams that weren't active the previous year (and maybe not active the previous two years, I didn't look that far into it) as well as rookie teams that have yet to register for an event (the eight digit teams). It tripped me up when I started looking at Michigan a few months ago. According the the USFIRST website Michigan has 321 teams, but we only have 279 actually registered for an event this year.
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I'll use 280 for estimates as it's a nice enough number... 64/280 teams will qualify for states - 22.9% 32/280 teams will qualify for worlds - 11.4% |
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So it seems that as of right now, the only question about CMP Qualifying left on the table will be how Wildcard Slots are being handled in 2014. Also, the mention of going to a proportional representation system in 2015 and beyond is interesting.. |
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While the number of District-qualifying teams from New England will be 24 next year, that doesn't include the 5 teams already qualified for CMP from New England (126, 151, 175, 190, 236)... So, New England will send 29 teams to CMP next year... right on line with our recent historical average. Regardless of whether or not it would line up with our historical average or not, I'm glad that it's being determined by percentage of teams (although only approximately in 2014)... it's the fairest way to do it, I think. As a side-note, a district team that qualifies for CMP by winning at a regional doesn't really take away a slot from their region... they just ensure that they're one of those teams. If 1519, 230, and 3467 all traveled to the Albany-area regional next year, and we all won, New England would still send 29 teams (24 + 5 pre-quals)... it would just guarantee that we would be 3 of those teams. I think this method is about as good as any to try to bridge the two systems... this'll all work much better when a district-like system exists for everyone! |
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Can't satisfy everyone all the time. |
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I suspect the following... Teams that made it to MSC, missing from list... 2000, Team Rock, played worlds last year, played traverse city and gull lake. I suspect still playing, as these were full early in TIMS. 3421, Tachyon TECs - Team website calendar has no data this year, maybe out? Active 4000's, that are missing... 4294 Star-trec, 3rd year, 4478 Materia Oscura, Played MARC offseason, I would think still in. The way TIMS works, if you wait list for two events, you can't register and there is no payment due. |
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I've attached my (somewhat discombobulated) spreadsheet that I've been tracking these things if anybody else wants to take a look. |
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3421 won't be competing this year. Short version: school let go of lead mentor and doesn't want him to be involved, the rest of us mentors aren't in a position where we can take over that role, and the school has been hesitant to let parents get involved. The parent of one of our students decided to create a team (5046) at their son's home school as the school is willing to part with the name, but not our supplies. (Specifically, the robot.) More related: I'm excited to be able to play outside of Michigan soon. We've been trapped in our own state for far too long. I remember a seeing a thread in '09 asking what happened to Michigan teams because not much had been heard about them. Someone responded with something along the lines of "Oh, we're still here, we've just been trapped in our own state playing against each other. We're still good. Heck, we're even better." So, really, for your own sake, let us out of Michigan so the first time you come up against us isn't at CMP after we've played 40+ matches against ourselves. =P |
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I've just re-read Frank's blog posts, his responses to comments and both CD threads.
In the CD thread for the initial blog Kim posed several questions: Quote:
Firstly Frank's follow up post yesterday clarified Q2 and answers Q1 with a very clear justification and tantalizing hints of the future :) There is also an answer to Q3 within the revised District Points Summary Quote:
Which brings us to Q4: how many awards are given at the District Championship? I don't see a direct answer to that question in the blog posts or points summary, although there is a potential hint that multiple DCAs will be awarded (my emphasis) Quote:
Am I missing something or reading too much into the word choice of an indefinite article? |
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In my opinion 3CA, 1EI, 1RAS makes sense, but its hard to tell what else may go into their decisions. I wonder if its possible the # of CA's to be proportional to the number of teams sent? |
Re: FRC Blogged - Standard District Points Ranking System More Info
These are still being worked on. Please check with your district operating committees for more details as we move forward.
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