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2014 Waterloo Regional
This may be a little early, but since no teams registered for Waterloo are competing at a week 3 event, we already know everything we're going to know about the Waterloo teams.
254-Central Valley Winners 771 781-GTRE Chairman's Award Winners 865 1114 1241-GTRW Chairman's Award Winners 1285-GTRE Winners 1305 1334 2056 2609 2702 3161-GTRE Engineering Inspiration Winners 3683 3756 4039 4069 4519 4525 4678 4732 4777 4907 4917 4943 4992 5032 5033 5039 What's interesting is that neither 1114 nor 2056 will create a wildcard if they win, due to 1114's semifinal exit at GTRE, and the fact that this is 2056's first regional. There's a very high chance that 1114 or 2056 (or both) will actually earn a wildcard at this regional, seeing the amount of other top tier robots that already can create wildcards. I expect everyone from the finalist alliance to qualify for champs, just like last year. Expect another insane Waterloo regional. I just mentioned the very top tier. |
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I'm making the nearly 4 hour drive out to Waterloo to visit this regional, and I may or may not be bringing an alumnus of team 67 with me. Of the events outside of Michigan that I have visited, this is one of my favorites. I'm really looking forward to an awesome event.
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Gregor, of the teams you didn't mention, both 1334 and 4039 had some of the best robots in the WORLD last year, both incredibly talented teams. 3683 was selected first by 1114 at GTRE, 865 was a defensive beast at GTRW, 2609 and 2702 both have been good teams for years, and two of our awesome chairman's award winning teams in 771 and 1305. The alliances that are going to be created at this small regional are almost going to be of Championship quality. I'm sad i'll be missing Waterloo this year, looks like its going to be a blast.
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What else do we know?
3161 is the oldest team in attendance without a blue banner. Blue Banners in Attendance: 1x 25-time Regional Winner (254) [16 since 2005] 1x 22-time Regional Winner (1114) [21 since 2005] 1x 17-time Regional Winner (2056) 1x 3-time Regional Winner (781) [2 since 2005] 3x 2-time Regional Winner (771, 865, 1305) [865 only has 1 since 2005] 7x 1-time Regional Winner (1241, 1285, 1334, 2609, 2702, 3756, 4069) 1x 4-time Championship Division Winner (254) [3 since 2005] 1x 3-time Championship Division Winner (1114) 1x 2-time Championship Division Winner (2056) 2x 1-time Championship Division Winner (781, 1241) 3x 1-time Championship Winner (254, 1114, 1241) 2x Championship Chairman's Award Winner (254, 1114) [254 was in 2004] 1x 6-time RCA Winner (1114) 1x 4-time RCA Winner (1305) 2x 3-time RCA Winner (771, 1241) 2x 2-time RCA Winner (254, 781) [0 for 254 since 2005] 1x 1-time RCA Winner (2056) A total 117 Blue Banners, at a 30 team regional (101 since 2005). Waterloo's BBQ = 3.9 Waterloo's SAUCE = 3.3667 |
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Great stats. |
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For what it's worth: I think this is the highest BBQ/SAUCE any event has ever had, primarily thanks to 254 bringing their collection to join 1114 and 2056's.
In all the BBQ/SAUCE threads in the past, I haven't noticed any BBQs >= 2. |
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Well, when we had a robot running (Silly RSL light!) :rolleyes: Thanks for the compliment! :) |
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Here on Team 254, we have developed the Basic Robot Information, Strengths, and Kryptonite Evaluation Toolkit (BRISKET) to help scout a robot's capabilities and exploitable weaknesses among this distinguished field of teams. Because quantitative metrics aren't the be-all and end-all this year, we also utilize Polled Pool Of Robot Kids (Polled PORK) to combine all of our scouts' qualitative observations after all of the matches are finished. As we all know, at the end of the day you need to come up with the strongest possible pick list in order to pull out the "W". This is where we turn to our patent-pending Typecasted Robots we Intend To Immediately Pick (TRITIP) list, where each class of robot is stack-ranked against all the others at the competition. We firmly believe that our BRISKET, Polled PORK, and TRITIP will form an unbeatable combination. Top that all off with the awesome BBQ/SAUCE at this event, and I think we have the recipe for something special. |
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For what its worth:
The formula for the BBQ and SAUCE of a fixed event with the same set of 1-regional teams is: BBQ = (4*N)/T SAUCE = (4*[N-Npre-2005])/T Where N = the number of years the event has run and T = number of teams. For Waterloo, this would result in a BBQ and SAUCE of 1.333 (as its a 30 team event, started in 2005). In other words, there are roughly 3 times as many blue banners in attendance at Waterloo 2014 as Waterloo has ever generated. |
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Just saying this to make 781 sound more awesome. |
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Billfred get in here and teach these boys about some sauce.
Edit: I'm excited to see my pre-season prediction come to fruition. |
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Additionally, 86 of the 117 Banners coming to Waterloo are held by 3 teams (1114, 254, 2056). Together, the three of them account for 73.5% of Waterloo's BBQ.
Without them, the BBQ of the rest of the event is: 1.148 |
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I think the proper metric to use here would be Performance Of Upper-quartile in Tournament Intervals of Near Equality (POUTINE). Each team receives a point for each event they were in the #1 or #2 seeded alliances in eliminations.
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I'm not really into this number analysis stuff,
but I do know good BBQ. I would have to say the Dallas Regional will have the best BBQ of Week 3. ::rtm:: |
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The BBQ/SAUCE stated is a little bit inflated. If you look at Billfred's original post he states he uses 2005 era as a starting point in 2008 because 2008 was the last year of high school members who were around in 2005. I say update the BBQ/SAUCE for this competition with 2011-2013 as seniors this year were freshmen in 2011.
Though the BBQ/SAUCE mentioned is incredibly amazing and definitely shows how hard this competition, and competition in Canada as a whole, is going to be this year. |
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SAUCE is the only one that would change. Billfred's post defines SAUCE as starting from 2005, because that's the year we switched to 3v3, hence, Sextuple Advancement Uniform Counting Era. When he coined the term in 2008, it happened to coincide with being the year that Seniors (Gr12) would have been freshmen (Gr9). I can see an argument though, that a four-year rolling version of SAUCE could be of value. Perhaps BRIQUETTE, the Banner Ratio Indexed to Quadrenniums of Unified Education Total Talent Estimation. 1x 25-time Regional Winner (254) [16 since 2005] [6 since 2011] 1x 22-time Regional Winner (1114) [21 since 2005] [8 since 2011] 1x 17-time Regional Winner (2056) [17 since 2005] [9 since 2011] 1x 3-time Regional Winner (781) [2 since 2005] [2 since 2011] 3x 2-time Regional Winner (771, 865, 1305) [865 only has 1 since 2005] [0 since 2011] 7x 1-time Regional Winner (1241, 1285, 1334, 2609, 2702, 3756, 4069) [1285, 1334, 2702, 3756, 4069 since 2011] 1x 4-time Championship Division Winner (254) [3 since 2005] [1 since 2011] 1x 3-time Championship Division Winner (1114) [3 since 2005] [1 since 2011] 1x 2-time Championship Division Winner (2056) [2 since 2005] [1 since 2011] 2x 1-time Championship Division Winner (781, 1241) [both since 2011] 3x 1-time Championship Winner (254, 1114, 1241) [254, 1241 since 2011] 2x Championship Chairman's Award Winner (254, 1114) [254 was in 2004] [1114 in 2012] 1x 6-time RCA Winner (1114) [6 since 2005] [2 since 2011] 1x 4-time RCA Winner (1305) [4 since 2005] [2 since 2011] 2x 3-time RCA Winner (771, 1241) [3 each since 2005] [2 each since 2011] 2x 2-time RCA Winner (254, 781) [254:0, 781:2 since 2005] [254:0, 781:2 since 2011] 1x 1-time RCA Winner (2056) [1 since 2005] [1 since 2011] 49 Blue Banners since 2011 BRIQUETTE = 1.6333 That means that in the last 4 years, the teams going to Waterloo have earned more than 3 times the Banners generated at Waterloo in that time. |
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You know I'm really surprised there isn't a lot of talk about using Potential Out-of-town Upset Threat and International vs Native Experience, or the POUTINE rating system to predict match outcomes.
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Is out-of-town defined by a radius? or a state/province? something else? Additionally, how to quantify 'native' experience? |
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International: Blue Banners won in the same province/state/country as the event Native: Blue banners won within the province/state/country of the event. |
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http://www.mongoliangrill.ca/ I used to go there all the time when I was a student at Waterloo. BTW: those of you joining us in Windsor for the Windsor Essex Great Lakes Regional in Week 6, we have real barbecue: http://www.smokenspice.com/ A bit far from the University of Windsor, but worth the trip. :D |
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My Waterloo match schedule is color-coded Check it out here.
Qualification matches are going to be really competitive tomorrow:
There are some really strong teams here and the pairing in qualification matches will make a huge difference in seeding. Of the titans, I think 254 has subjectively the best match schedule. With that being said, since there is so much interplay between the titans, there is a definite possibility other teams seed above them. To make things even more interesting, The Blue Alliance Insights page shows that 254 moved up to 33 total Blue Banners after CVR, which ties them for the most ever with 1114... Since their rookie year in 2007, 2056 has yet to lose a Regional Event. 1114 and 2056 have 13 Regional wins and 1 World Division title together, they truly are: "The greatest combination in the history of FIRST" Will 1114 and 2056 get to play together? Will 254 overthrow 1114's Blue Banner Count? Will 2056 keep their 17 Regional Win streak alive? Waterloo 2014: The most hyped Regional Event in the history of FIRST |
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That Wrecking ball Move by Karthik. Priceless.
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Where do you see the match schedule?
Thanks Cullen =========== Never mind found it! Sorry! |
Anyone knows if the webcast is viewable through an ipad?
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You need a flash enabled browser to watch on a mobile device.
FRCspy is working for match results (which I thought collected data from the twitter feed) |
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*Manual W/L Rankings are posted in my spreadsheet (No tiebreakers)* |
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Anyone experience lag in the webcast or is it just me? Thanks |
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It was originally laggy for me, but it has since cleared up. These matches are intense!
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I'm getting push notifications from Spyder for Waterloo, Buckeye, and Montreal, but updating it to look for rankings + match results isn't working for Waterloo. |
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Try medium or low if you are having connection issues. - Bochek |
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G27 claims one of its first victims, 2056's alliance loses on 70pts worth of ramming penalties in Q16.
These are some great matches! |
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The announcer said that the rankings are up. I can see the rankings on the score overlay, but the Rankings page here is still down.
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Rankings are now online:
http://www2.usfirst.org/2014comp/eve.../rankings.html |
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2056 is ranked 1st at 4-0, even though they lost a match. I bet they retroacticvely corrected the fouls on match 16. Can anyone verify? |
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How is the video from The Blue Alliance for this Regional working for you all?
I get some scores across the bottom for Q22~Q28 and the message "Failed to load video." repeatedly. Rebooting didn't help. The Wisconsin Regional video works but keeps pausing. A few of the other ones work, many others don't. It could be the network here at work. |
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*This Karthik lag :P |
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I'd be interested in the Bayesian Estimate of Average Net Score (BEANS) and CORrected Net Bayesian REduced Average Distribution (CORNBREAD).
Actually, BEANS/CORNBREAD would also be interesting. |
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Webcast went out?
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Try refreshing the page if the webcast is down, Justin.tv appears to have had a hiccup.
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Thanks |
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Or at least that's how we handled it at my week 2 event. |
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Thanks for the insight! |
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*GP at it's finest* |
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Reminds me of our alliance getting DQed for knocking 1918 off the pyramid last year in the Curie finals, despite 67 and 1918 protesting the call, arguing that our alliance was not at fault. Definitely GP, quality move by Team 781! |
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781/4678/3683 just put up 265 Auto+Teleop Points. Nicely done.
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Match 37 looked a lot like a lunacy match.
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In match 38 why wasn't one of the 3 assist goal counted?
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it was added after the match ended
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does anybody know the current standings?
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Thanks to 1114 for posting this on Facebook (as of match 35): ![]() |
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I'm not sure that FIRST realizes exactly how much things like working Twitter feeds and live streams matter to making FRC an event people want to, and will, watch.
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In case anyone was wondering what happened to us after that match, a robot smashed into us and slipped out our left drive chain, beat up the left drive talon and disconnected a couple of spots on our welded shooter frame. For the next three matches, we only used the rollers and could not shoot/truss/etc with the shooter. We hope that it will work a lot better tomorrow, but the damage was pretty bad. Rough game out there (the other alliance had 250 in foul points and a yellow card, in case you were curious). Really fun regional to watch, though, and teams like 3683, 4039, 4678, 1114, 254 amongst many, many others are all wonderful to interact with in the competition. And if you wanted more clarification on the overturn, the call was initially made against a team on the other alliance for damaging our elephant ear, which won us the match along with a normal foul. We didn't feel it was right, so we mentioned it to the referee when the other alliance began protesting. Winning is great and all, but it felt pretty crappy to win like that. Only thing I can think of right now, though, is the damage we took. It'll really hurt our scores, record and scouting data for other teams. |
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The problem is that the FMS isn't set up in a way that lets FIRST modify it to fix problems easily. The field issues with inconsistent hot goal timing and pedestal delays are still causing multiple replays at each day at each competition for 5 weeks now. The fact that they can't figure out how to fix it in this amount of time is very telling. |
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Historically, Waterloo hasn't had any issues of this nature from what I can recall. I wonder if something changed in the FMS for 2014 that's broken updating at *some* events. |
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4039 is dirty. Really nice driving.
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Anybody know if the field in Waterloo is the same field that was at GTRW? Perhaps there is a setting off on the field server? |
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They need to get with a team that has a strong drive train and good drivers that can run picks for them. But if they hold on to that #1 spot in the rankings, that won't be a problem. |
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With so few teams but so much depth, it's ambiguous as to whether it's a case of 'impossible to get wrong' or 'impossible to get right'. |
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I would say that the top 5 at the event, in order, are:
254 1114 4039 3683 2056 No matter who seeds #1, they're left with a REALLY tough choice. There is no clear choice as to who should be your first pick. If I'm 4039 and I'm #1 though? I'm picking 254. The #2 captain's 1st pick is an even harder choice, and will likely dictate the finals matchup, but there is a serious possibility that the #1 and/or #2 seeds could get bit by the backside of the draft being fairly weak, allowing 3,4,5,6,7, or 8 to build a stronger alliance than 2 superstars and a weak 3rd, what with only 30 teams in attendance. |
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If this field has played all 3 Ontario regionals, did ONTO have any trouble pushing matches to web? I don't recall it did. |
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Strategically, 4039 excels at the front zone (ie scoring) and 2056 seems designed to play the back zone perfectly (great inbound, 5ft blocker, great truss throw). Rather cynically, as alliance captain, if they made it to the finals and played 254/1114 (or 1285/others?), they are ensured at least a wildcard. With the serpentine and so little to separate the elite robots (and ultimately how good 2056/1114 are together), it's at least an important consideration. |
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I don't think the QCMO field has been used before this week. |
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There is also the consideration that 1114 and 2056 share a practice facility, and 2056 is clearly designed to catch. I'd bet anything that there exists a well practiced Truss/Catch up their sleeve much like the ~4 sec 40pt Balance the Eh Team showed off in 2012 division elims at CMP. |
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Another thought. If you're 254 and #2 seed, do you decline 4039? That's a tough call.
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Fantasy pick-lists are fun.
Regardless of which teams get together in the top few alliances, the key will be the 3rd robot. Whichever alliance can find a robot who can receive an inbound, outtake/pass a ball super cleanly, play smart defense (pushing, slowing down opponents, blocking shots), and not take penalties will win. This is easier said than done, especially for the top few alliances because of the serpentine draft and the fact that there are only 30 teams here. More than any regional I've seen, scouting will determine who wins this regional. If teams do their homework, there shouldn't be any robots like this left for the #1 alliance, maybe not for the #2 or #3 ones either. At GTRW which also fielded 30 teams, 188 worked tirelessly in the pits immediately after selections with their 3rd robot 3705 to make sure they could do this, and ended up storming through the elims, nearly winning the tournament. IMHO, this tournament will be won tonight - at all the scouting meetings that will be taking place to find that gem of a 3rd robot. |
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And although I've watched most of the matches today, I haven't really figured out who might be the 18-24th picks, which could swing things. There's huge potential for blue alliances, especially 3-6. EDIT: Mr Lim beat me to it. |
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