Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

Sorry for lack of clarity. The data I posted was my own, collected at WPI. We have not received any data from FIRST. The twitter feed data remains the only broader data available at this point...


Dan H.

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

Keep in mind you need to win the series to get any elimination points.
They could have worded it that you get 10 points for each series won, but the per match scoring takes backup robots into account where a simple 10 pts/series would not handle backup robots well.

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

Just watch Team 885 in the standings! We won about half our matches in each of Nashua and WPI, were seeded around the mid-point in each, and were drafted in each (#1 pick at WPI!). We won no elimination matches at Nashua, and 3 at WPI. We have 55 points and are now just watching to see whether we make it or not!

We did not punch our own ticket, which is definitely the superior route! Kudos to those that have done so, or will yet do so!


Dan Hudnut, mentor
Team 885, Randolph, VT

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

As you can tell by my following post, I did not understand this subtlety. I believe the announcer at Nashua said otherwise, and I did not check...

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

These rankings are all about quantifying individual performance of teams who work together, and this decision was made to give surrogates credit for their performance. They're not going to get picking points, but they are competing in elimination matches and should be rewarded if they help their alliance to advance. For a typical surrogate candidate (usually ranking in the middle of the pack), surrogate elimination points may be the thing that puts them over the edge to qualify for the DCMP. It gives them something to fight for.

As for the announcer, educating the masses is the toughest part of this change. We've tried a few tactics, and I think we've settled on something that works - thanks for your patience as we try to get this right! Iterate, iterate, iterate.

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

My current prediction based off of the current points scored (2x first event for those who have only one event, with adjustments for Hartford, NEU, and Pine Tree being more full and for the chunk of points being absorbed by 3rd-event teams) is that the cut-off will be at 59 points. Currently the 6 DCA winners are all above this cut-off, so this could be the actual cut-off.

I would personally recommend that the teams with at least 45 points start considering whether or not they would attend DCMP though... plenty of teams may decline an invite to DCMP for a host of reasons (i.e. cost, short-notice, travel). If you end up getting called on you'll have even less time to respond and you don't want to lose the opportunity just because you weren't prepared!

As a side-note... there are some inaccuracies with with the "unofficial rankings" according to official rankings: 1973 should have 9; 4796 should have 9; 4628 should have 23 (if they were picked 7th not 10th); 4546 should have 23; 3499 should have 25; 3280 should have 46; 3461 should have 20; 2342 should have 12; 121 should have 44; 1350 should have 57; 3718 should have 56; 2064 should have 63; and 4048 should have 75.

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

I'm slightly increasing my earlier estimate of a 57-58 cutoff up to 59-60 based on analysis of all teams having completed their first event and a better sense of how teams earned points in their first and second event (second event shows a mean 23% increase in points scored mostly due to the observation below). But as Nathan correctly points out there are likely to be many teams who qualify but are unable to attend so teams with lower points scores will be at the District Championship.

This was also the first week of competitions where there was a substantial proportion of second event teams and the impact on outcomes was quite dramatic.
Second event teams averaged 35 points at both RIDE and Southington whereas first event teams averaged only 14 and 17 points respectively. The primary cause was elimination selection. At RIDE 18 of the 21 second event teams made it to eliminations compared to only 6 of 16 first event teams. The pattern was similar in Southington with 19 of 20 second event teams advancing vs only 5 of 12 first event teams.

The most obvious explanation would be that experience playing the game helps performance, but it does suggest that there is some specific strategic benefit to teams picking events to compete in (small events over larger events and first event early, second event in the middle of the season).

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

Sorry I'm not perfect! :D That's why I've been trying to emphasize that they're not official, I'm going for speed over accuracy and I make plenty of mistakes.

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

Anthony, just wanted to make sure you know that I'm in no way criticizing your work! :-) I'm really glad you've been doing this so promptly after events for the NE community... it is a huge amount of effort! I definitely understand making a few mistakes... a number of the inaccuracies were actually with unusual cases or where there was inconsistent data, which makes it even more understandable!

Knowing how much work you put into it, I just wanted to save you a little time by sharing the inaccuracies since I had already found them. Thank you for your work on making and updating these unofficial standings; it is very much appreciated!

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

[quote=Nathan Streeter;1365562. Thank you for your work on making and updating these unofficial standings; it is very much appreciated![/QUOTE]

mega ditto

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

Haha thanks guys! I get robot withdrawals and look for any way to participate. Glad I could help!

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

I broke the teams into 10 segments based on first event percentiles. Then took the average % delta of teams in each segment that had competed in 2 events. I then used that % delta to estimate the event 2 scores for teams yet to compete.

Congrats to all the DCA winners already in!

Here are the top 59 based on these calculations:

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

You're missing Robo Squad, 558; with 107 points they should be tied at 14th on this list.

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

As well as 3467, who should be pretty high up having had 71 points at UNH

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 

I think he took out Chairman's award winners since they qualify already. Explains why 3467 and 558 are two of the teams not included.