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-   -   [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=127968)

Paul T. 17-03-2014 18:30

[NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
after week 1 of competition we thought the point cutoff was going to be around 60 but now were starting to reconsider. With my team only having 22 points (we counted, not official) (won 5 qualification matches - 10 pts got picked next to last - 2 points won the quarter finals 10 pts = 22) meaning we would need 38 ponts (at least) to get to the district championship. I wanted some other opinions of what the cutoff may be.

Thanks
Paul

Jay O'Donnell 17-03-2014 18:41

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Doesn't exactly answer your question, but this might give you some idea of where you stand. http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=127672

loyal 17-03-2014 21:36

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
From the start I always thought the minimum points would be 50 or 60. So my guess would be 55 points then you are out. I really think that's what it will take to squeak in.

M. Lillis 17-03-2014 22:05

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
So 60 teams get into Boston, do Rookie All-Stars and District Chairman's winners take away from that? If so, it is really only the top 42 point-getters (That's a minimum, because there are definitely going to be some top-60 teams that double qualify (chairmans/all-star + point ranking)). My original thought was that it would take about 70 to get in. But if awards take Boston slots, then I would venture to say that it may be closer to 80 points to get in.

dag0620 17-03-2014 22:14

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by M. Lillis (Post 1360620)
So 60 teams get into Boston, do Rookie All-Stars and District Chairman's winners take away from that? If so, it is really only the top 42 point-getters (That's a minimum, because there are definitely going to be some top-60 teams that double qualify (chairmans/all-star + point ranking)). My original thought was that it would take about 70 to get in. But if awards take Boston slots, then I would venture to say that it may be closer to 80 points to get in.

54 teams total will be attending. 9 of those slots will be allocated to District Chairmans award winners. Everyone else will get in via points.

With that said, typically, teams that win Chairmans normally would have qualified via points anyway, so it makes little impact on the amount of points you would need to get in.

M. Lillis 17-03-2014 22:26

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by dag0620 (Post 1360628)
54 teams total will be attending. 9 of those slots will be allocated to District Chairmans award winners. Everyone else will get in via points.

Ok, that makes sense.

MikeE 17-03-2014 23:38

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
tldr: probably 57 or 58 pts but we'll know far more this time next week

The answer to this question really depends on two things we don't know yet:
  • how much correlation we see between the points a team gets in both their scored events and
  • how many points are "scored" by teams in their third (or fourth!) event.
A high correlation will tend to reduce the Championship threshold since a large mass of points will be allocated to a small number of high performing teams therefore decreasing the points awarded to the mid-tier teams.

Points being allocated to teams in their third event and therefore discarded will also reduce the cutoff threshold by suppressing the total number of points awarded during the district event phase of the season.

We're not quite half way into the season (4 of 9 district events complete) so it's a little early to have a solid prediction; while 9% of teams have completed both scored events over 15% haven't played in any event yet. A graph of districts by first, second and third event teams


Choosing the top 54 robots of 163 teams in New England means we are selecting the top third of teams. In each of the 4 events so far the top tercile (I had to look up that word too) is between 26 and 36 points, averaging 32, so a simple answer is that championship threshold will be twice that.

My current estimate is that the threshold will be slightly lower, probably 57 or 58pts, but in a few days the Week 4 events will be concluding. At that point every team will have played at least one event and a third of teams will have competed in both events, so we should have a far better idea of where the threshold will fall.

If anyone is still reading, here are some unofficial stats for the events so far
Code:

Event                NHNAS        NHDUR        CTGRO        MAWOR
Week                1        2        2        3
Teams                39        36        33        39
Rounds                12        12        12        12
Matches                78        72        66        78
DQs                10        1        1        2
Total QualPts        462        430        394        468
Mean QualPts        11.85        11.94        11.94        12.00
Total SeedPts        236        236        236        236
Total ElimPts        210        210        210        210
Total AwardPts        86        86        86        86
Total Points        994        962        926        1000
Mean Points        25.5        26.7        28.1        25.6
StdDev Points        16.7        17.1        15.7        16.2
Max Points        75        72        57        58
Min Points        4        5        6        2
Median Points        23        24        25        19
Top Tercile        33.5        26.5        36.0        31.8

Some other musings on district points from last year's FiM & MAR season can be found here particularly on the substantial advantage of attending smaller events.

M. Lillis 17-03-2014 23:47

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeE (Post 1360660)
how many points are "scored" by teams in their third (or fourth!) event.

Are you implying that points accumulated after the first two events count toward Championship? Because I believe it is the first two district events. Maybe I'm just not reading your words right.

Andrew Schreiber 17-03-2014 23:52

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by M. Lillis (Post 1360666)
Are you implying that points accumulated after the first two events count toward Championship? Because I believe it is the first two district events. Maybe I'm just not reading your words right.

They are "scored" in a sense. However, they don't count towards qualifying. However, those teams are 'taking points' from teams that they could count for effectively removing points from the overall system. A good team competing at 3+ event acts as a sponge concentrating points to them and lowering the threshold for everyone. (Those points are effectively lost)

M. Lillis 17-03-2014 23:54

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber (Post 1360671)
However, those teams are 'taking points' from teams that they could count for effectively removing points from the overall system.

Wow, it makes sense now. Thanks!

PVCpirate 18-03-2014 00:14

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell (Post 1360524)
Doesn't exactly answer your question, but this might give you some idea of where you stand. http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=127672

If you look at my latest standings, I've placed a black line under the ranking position which represents the percentage of NE teams going to the district championship applied to the number of teams who have played so far. By applying the percentage, looking at that bottom team's score and doubling it if they've only played once, I came up with a cutoff at 72 points. Doubling the score probably reduces the accuracy, so I expect the number to come down once the cutoff team has played 2 events. My guess right now is 65 ish.

loyal 18-03-2014 07:49

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Teams playing in more than two events become spoilers. This is like most all play offs. When they win they take points away from other teams denying an advancement. This is all cool. But some thing I was thinking of is this. Teams playing more than two events should not be pickers or first round picks. Only last round. This would give the second event teams an opportunity to advance in the points. Make sense?

Ty Tremblay 18-03-2014 08:39

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by loyal (Post 1360758)
Teams playing more than two events should not be pickers or first round picks. Only last round. This would give the second event teams an opportunity to advance in the points. Make sense?

Then why go to a 3rd+ event at all if you only have a 1 in 8 chance of making it into eliminations? This would wreak havoc during alliance selections, giving you almost no advantage for ranking #1.

loyal 18-03-2014 09:00

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ty Tremblay (Post 1360772)
Then why go to a 3rd+ event at all if you only have a 1 in 8 chance of making it into eliminations? This would wreak havoc during alliance selections, giving you almost no advantage for ranking #1.

A third event would still allow you to unbag your robot and make improvements. That is huge. As for alliance selection certainly #8 would get a great last pick but as I said think of the points. # 1 would get 16 points. Those points if given to a team that played two events already and might be going to the championship any how is wasteful.
Wasteful not in a bad way. Wasteful in a spoiler playoff way. In hockey I always loved the spoiler strategy and in NE FIRST I can see it being a viable strategy also.

Jessica Boucher 18-03-2014 09:08

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Don't forget that there will be teams who will decline their invitation. So even though the cutoff may be X, the top 53 teams who want to go are in.

It's just like alliance selection - if you're on the bubble, create a pick list anyway.

MikeE 18-03-2014 09:18

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber (Post 1360671)
They are "scored" in a sense. However, they don't count towards qualifying. However, those teams are 'taking points' from teams that they could count for effectively removing points from the overall system. A good team competing at 3+ event acts as a sponge concentrating points to them and lowering the threshold for everyone. (Those points are effectively lost)

While a team competing in it's 3rd/4th event is likely reducing the points available to the teams at that event, it also has the effect of decreasing the cutoff threshold for district championships so it benefits teams not at that event.

So from a purely strategic point of view a team should go to the earliest and smallest events possible, all other things being equal.

Andrew Schreiber 18-03-2014 09:32

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeE (Post 1360787)
While a team competing in it's 3rd/4th event is likely reducing the points available to the teams at that event, it also has the effect of decreasing the cutoff threshold for district championships so it benefits teams not at that event.

So from a purely strategic point of view a team should go to the earliest and smallest events possible, all other things being equal.

Thank you for reiterating exactly what I said.



And there are multiple reasons to go to 3+ events. For example - One of our events is geared towards training the next generation of folks without worrying about hurting our chances at qualifying. It's a fun chance that we feel is well worth the extra cost.

And for those who said we shouldn't be allowed to be picked - That would actually hurt the higher seeded points as teams that do 3+ events tend to have more on field experience and perform well. This would mean that #8 would be able to pick the best 3+ event team which would defeat one of the main benefits of being #1 (being able to pick whoever you want)... Plus that's like saying teams shouldn't be allowed to play in multiple events...

Jay O'Donnell 18-03-2014 10:00

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
I know that teams don't get points for qualifying in their third or fourth event, but theoretically could they qualify for NE champs by winning the chairman's award at their third or fourth event?

loyal 18-03-2014 10:07

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by loyal (Post 1360758)
Teams playing in more than two events become spoilers. This is like most all play offs. When they win they take points away from other teams denying an advancement. This is all cool. But some thing I was thinking of is this. Teams playing more than two events should not be pickers or first round picks. Only last round. This would give the second event teams an opportunity to advance in the points. Make sense?

When I wrote the word "should" that seems to be a strong word. But the sentence before it said "some thing I was thinking about". Perhaps I should oh wait could have been clearer.
I'm just thinking again. So an example, team xxx is a power house and at a third event with 3 other power house teams. They rank 1,2,3,4. If 1 picks 2 and 3 picks 4 that's 64 points going nowhere. Of course this is hypothetical. I understand what Jess said. A team could decline. But it is a viable strategy. Couldn't it happen this way?

loyal 18-03-2014 10:09

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell (Post 1360804)
I know that teams don't get points for qualifying in their third or fourth event, but theoretically could they qualify for NE champs by winning the chairman's award at their third or fourth event?

Yes

Nathan Streeter 18-03-2014 10:21

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeE (Post 1360660)
Choosing the top 54 robots of 163 teams in New England means we are selecting the top third of teams. In each of the 4 events so far the top tercile (I had to look up that word too) is between 26 and 36 points, averaging 32, so a simple answer is that championship threshold will be twice that.

My current estimate is that the threshold will be slightly lower, probably 57 or 58pts, but in a few days the Week 4 events will be concluding. At that point every team will have played at least one event and a third of teams will have competed in both events, so we should have a far better idea of where the threshold will fall.

It looks like your analysis looks only at the points awarded at events... not the rookie and 2nd-year points also. This will be 10 points for each rookie and 5 points for each 2nd year team... which, if there were 10 of each in NE would actually only amount to 150 points. Averaged out, this would probably affect the threshold by less than a point.

Given where the cut-off was in MI in 2013 (I don't recall off the top of my head; I think it was around 52-54) the prediction of 57 to 58 seems reasonable given the various changes from FiM 2013 to NEFIRST 2014 (rookie/second year points, different percentage of teams making DCMP, higher point values for many awards in 2014, etc.).

As Jess said though, the cut-off won't be solid... a fair number of teams will likely decide not to go to DCMP for a variety of reasons, even if they are above the threshold. This will shift the effective threshold downwards by some to-be-determined amount.

Agreed that predictions should be far better after this week, when all the teams will've played their first event and a larger percentage will've played their second event.

MikeE 18-03-2014 11:16

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber (Post 1360791)
Thank you for reiterating exactly what I said.

You're welcome, although I was clarifying that the impact is different on teams attending vs not attending the same event.

Deke 18-03-2014 11:35

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter (Post 1360812)
It looks like your analysis looks only at the points awarded at events... not the rookie and 2nd-year points also. This will be 10 points for each rookie and 5 points for each 2nd year team... which, if there were 10 of each in NE would actually only amount to 150 points. Averaged out, this would probably affect the threshold by less than a point.

Given where the cut-off was in MI in 2013 (I don't recall off the top of my head; I think it was around 52-54) the prediction of 57 to 58 seems reasonable given the various changes from FiM 2013 to NEFIRST 2014 (rookie/second year points, different percentage of teams making DCMP, higher point values for many awards in 2014, etc.).

As Jess said though, the cut-off won't be solid... a fair number of teams will likely decide not to go to DCMP for a variety of reasons, even if they are above the threshold. This will shift the effective threshold downwards by some to-be-determined amount.

Agreed that predictions should be far better after this week, when all the teams will've played their first event and a larger percentage will've played their second event.

Last year in FiM the cutoff was 76, that was with ~205 teams and an average of 47 points per team. This year there are 278 teams with an average of 54 points a team because of the new award and rookie and soph point bonuses. It looks like they are projecting low 80s as the cutoff. So most teams would need to at least advance to the finals once and win one round of the elims in the other district to advance. Otherwise they would need alot of qual wins and high pick points with award wins to advance to state.

MikeE 18-03-2014 11:44

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter (Post 1360812)
It looks like your analysis looks only at the points awarded at events... not the rookie and 2nd-year points also. This will be 10 points for each rookie and 5 points for each 2nd year team... which, if there were 10 of each in NE would actually only amount to 150 points. Averaged out, this would probably affect the threshold by less than a point.

Given where the cut-off was in MI in 2013 (I don't recall off the top of my head; I think it was around 52-54) the prediction of 57 to 58 seems reasonable given the various changes from FiM 2013 to NEFIRST 2014 (rookie/second year points, different percentage of teams making DCMP, higher point values for many awards in 2014, etc.).

As Jess said though, the cut-off won't be solid... a fair number of teams will likely decide not to go to DCMP for a variety of reasons, even if they are above the threshold. This will shift the effective threshold downwards by some to-be-determined amount.

Agreed that predictions should be far better after this week, when all the teams will've played their first event and a larger percentage will've played their second event.

That's correct, I didn't include the impact of age bonus. From the teams that have competed so far 1st & 2nd year teams distribute in roughly the same way as veteran teams.

There are approximately ~8800 points allocated from events and just 225 from the age bonus so the overall impact on the threshold is small. Of course it will elevate some young teams who are close to the threshold, but that is expected and was the stated purpose of the age bonus.

It will have a much bigger impact in Michigan where almost 40% of teams are rookies or in their second year.

Applying the NE ratio of teams attending Championship to last year's Michigan points data (rescored with the new unified point model) would have given a threshold of 58pts. That's one of other data points that went into my 57-58pt estimate.

Mr. B 18-03-2014 12:32

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
A quick look at statistical probability dictates a 47-48 point cutoff if factors like 90% acceptance, 20% point removal by teams that attend 3 district events ETC.
For the worlds assuming only an 85% acceptance my numbers tell me 103-108 points to get in.
So in theory, a team might qualify for worlds without going to the District championship.

Peter Matteson 18-03-2014 12:39

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. B (Post 1360876)
So in theory, a team might qualify for worlds without going to the District championship.

This can't be right.
Are you factoring in that the points triple for everything at the DCMP?

Mr. B 18-03-2014 12:45

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Yes, Look at the average score of the teams in the 16-24 in points scored.
Say 25 x 3 + 47
Now consider all that will decline the invite
Does seem low but I believe unless the acceptance rate gets above 90%
Who knows

Eric O 18-03-2014 19:07

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. B (Post 1360886)
Yes, Look at the average score of the teams in the 16-24 in points scored.
Say 25 x 3 + 47
Now consider all that will decline the invite
Does seem low but I believe unless the acceptance rate gets above 90%
Who knows

I believe you are calculating how many points the 50th or 60th team will have. If 47 is the cutoff to get into the district championship it is not the 24the best team. The 24th team currently has 49pts (my unofficial tracking) and most teams haven't played a second event.

If you assume everyone who hasn't played 2 districts is able to repeat their performance the 24th best team will have 86 pts. before district championship. Realistically, this will be probably be closer to 80. If they repeat this at the District Championship they would have 200 pts. (80 + 3x40).

The MAR district simulation using last year’s data and this year’s ranking scheme had the 20th best team with 163pts and 24th with 134pts. Given the calculation above and the MAR data, I would expect to need between 150 and 170pts to qulify for Worlds depending on acceptance rate as well as number of auto qualify teams ending up in the top 24.

-Eric

esquared 19-03-2014 11:41

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jessica Boucher (Post 1360785)
Don't forget that there will be teams who will decline their invitation. So even though the cutoff may be X, the top 53 teams who want to go are in.

It's just like alliance selection - if you're on the bubble, create a pick list anyway.

Is it possible to update the NEFIRST.org rankings sheet with a column indicating the number of events each team has attended? Although a patient person could find all that information out themselves, it would at a glance give teams an idea of where the target is.

Lil' Lavery 19-03-2014 12:00

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
It is mathematically impossible to qualify for the Championship event if you don't attend your district championship. That's the precise reason why the 3x multiplier for the district championship was selected.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jessica Boucher (Post 1360785)
Don't forget that there will be teams who will decline their invitation. So even though the cutoff may be X, the top 53 teams who want to go are in.

It's just like alliance selection - if you're on the bubble, create a pick list anyway.

I can tell you, from a MAR perspective, this is very important. MAR has had 10+ teams that qualified for MAR CMP not attend the event in both of the previous two years. If you're anywhere near the cutoff, be prepared to go if you're invited.

Joe Ross 19-03-2014 12:30

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery (Post 1361295)
It is mathematically impossible to qualify for the Championship event if you don't attend your district championship. That's the precise reason why the 3x multiplier for the district championship was selected.

That's not true, It's hard, but not mathematically impossible. In Michigan last year, team 314 was the last team that qualified for the championship with 133 points. There were 6 teams that had 133 or more points after 2 districts. It will be easier to do this in a larger district system (with more qualifying teams) then a smaller one. It did not happen in MAR last year.

Thad House 19-03-2014 16:07

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
If the points cutoff for worlds is about 150, then it would be potentially possible for the #1-3 teams in points before regional championships to make worlds without attending the regional champs, because a total of about 170 points is possible for 2 district events. But it would be very difficult to do, and I highly doubt the #1-3 teams in points would skip the regional championships.

Bill_B 20-03-2014 21:53

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Is there a source for match results that has autonomous and teleop points shown separately?

engunneer 20-03-2014 22:21

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill_B (Post 1361986)
Is there a source for match results that has autonomous and teleop points shown separately?

The twitter data (replicated many places, but FRC Spy (above on this page) is one of them) has everything separate. You can filter by team or competition.

Bill_B 20-03-2014 23:51

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Twitter data may be replicated many places, but frcspy has precisely one entry for ctgro that is apparently practice match 2. No other filtering raised anything useful regarding the Groton matches. Bummer. :(

Bill_B 21-03-2014 16:21

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
I made a Q&D google spreadsheet to compute championship points values for a variety of scenarios. You can see it here. I have enabled editing for it, so please be careful to avoid scrambling it up too badly. If you have drastic revisions to make, you should be able to apply them to a copy. Please share your improvement ideas.

Whatever the cutoff turns out to be, this will help a team establish some performance goal(s) for their event(s) without having to strain the imagination too much.

plnyyanks 21-03-2014 17:15

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill_B (Post 1362060)
Twitter data may be replicated many places, but frcspy has precisely one entry for ctgro that is apparently practice match 2. No other filtering raised anything useful regarding the Groton matches. Bummer. :(

What data for Groton do you need? I have some of the FMS reports from the end of the competition that might have what you're looking for

Bill_B 21-03-2014 23:32

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Thanks Phil. We got thrown by a wicked curveball in autonomous when on the field. A pretty reliable routine in practice went totally sour on the field and we spent a lot of time trying to understand what difference between the field and practice was biting us. Aside from the damage to our scoring reputation, I was trying to see how much effect a better auto score would have had on the matches we lost. Our programmers have reworked the auto code and we've added some sensor usage to improve the performance overall.

plnyyanks 22-03-2014 09:20

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Surprisingly, the end of event reports don't give the score breakdown by part anywhere. Just final scores. So I don't think I can help you. They should change that for next year...

lf3307 22-03-2014 23:55

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Team 885 has asked for score detail for all district events...

I posted most of the WPI data under the WPI event thread.


Dan H.
Team 885

Bill_B 23-03-2014 17:22

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Was any data for the other tournaments sent with it?

loyal 24-03-2014 19:07

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
To me it still looks like 55 points will be the cut off to get to NE championship. What do you guys think?

Paul T. 24-03-2014 20:09

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by loyal (Post 1364138)
To me it still looks like 55 points will be the cut off to get to NE championship. What do you guys think?

I could definitely believe that would be close to the cutoff. we were thinking around 60 maybe 65 but i like yours more

piersklein 24-03-2014 20:36

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
My bet is around 65 to 70 for this year. Now I'm not doing statistics but heres why I'd say so: a team could win 8 matches in each of two events (32 points) which is thoroughly midpack. Be picked 8th at both (18 points) and then win one quarterfinal match in each event (10 points) and then win an award (5 points) or be a rookie or second year team for a grand total of 75-70 points. Which is quite good for most teams and should, this year at least, be good enough to qualify and be helpful to others at the new england championships.

loyal 24-03-2014 21:05

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
This is how I figure it. Use the unofficial ranking here on CD ok. The top 25 played twice and are a lock for the most part. The next possible to advance goes to rank 62 it looks like and that is 40 points. If every team that is eligible to advance only got 12 points (6-6-0)that would make rank 62 now be 52 points. But I see better than that. 55 is my guess.

lf3307 24-03-2014 22:14

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill_B (Post 1363168)
Was any data for the other tournaments sent with it?

Sorry for lack of clarity. The data I posted was my own, collected at WPI. We have not received any data from FIRST. The twitter feed data remains the only broader data available at this point...


Dan H.

engunneer 24-03-2014 22:17

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by piersklein (Post 1364194)
win one quarterfinal match in each event (10 points)

Keep in mind you need to win the series to get any elimination points.
They could have worded it that you get 10 points for each series won, but the per match scoring takes backup robots into account where a simple 10 pts/series would not handle backup robots well.

lf3307 24-03-2014 22:21

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by loyal (Post 1364226)
This is how I figure it. Use the unofficial ranking here on CD ok. The top 25 played twice and are a lock for the most part. The next possible to advance goes to rank 62 it looks like and that is 40 points. If every team that is eligible to advance only got 12 points (6-6-0)that would make rank 62 now be 52 points. But I see better than that. 55 is my guess.

Just watch Team 885 in the standings! We won about half our matches in each of Nashua and WPI, were seeded around the mid-point in each, and were drafted in each (#1 pick at WPI!). We won no elimination matches at Nashua, and 3 at WPI. We have 55 points and are now just watching to see whether we make it or not!

We did not punch our own ticket, which is definitely the superior route! Kudos to those that have done so, or will yet do so!


Dan Hudnut, mentor
Team 885, Randolph, VT

lf3307 24-03-2014 22:23

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by engunneer (Post 1364276)
Keep in mind you need to win the series to get any elimination points.
They could have worded it that you get 10 points for each series won, but the per match scoring takes backup robots into account where a simple 10 pts/series would not handle backup robots well.

As you can tell by my following post, I did not understand this subtlety. I believe the announcer at Nashua said otherwise, and I did not check...

Jessica Boucher 25-03-2014 09:30

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lf3307 (Post 1364279)
As you can tell by my following post, I did not understand this subtlety. I believe the announcer at Nashua said otherwise, and I did not check...

These rankings are all about quantifying individual performance of teams who work together, and this decision was made to give surrogates credit for their performance. They're not going to get picking points, but they are competing in elimination matches and should be rewarded if they help their alliance to advance. For a typical surrogate candidate (usually ranking in the middle of the pack), surrogate elimination points may be the thing that puts them over the edge to qualify for the DCMP. It gives them something to fight for.

As for the announcer, educating the masses is the toughest part of this change. We've tried a few tactics, and I think we've settled on something that works - thanks for your patience as we try to get this right! Iterate, iterate, iterate.

Nathan Streeter 26-03-2014 15:41

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
My current prediction based off of the current points scored (2x first event for those who have only one event, with adjustments for Hartford, NEU, and Pine Tree being more full and for the chunk of points being absorbed by 3rd-event teams) is that the cut-off will be at 59 points. Currently the 6 DCA winners are all above this cut-off, so this could be the actual cut-off.

I would personally recommend that the teams with at least 45 points start considering whether or not they would attend DCMP though... plenty of teams may decline an invite to DCMP for a host of reasons (i.e. cost, short-notice, travel). If you end up getting called on you'll have even less time to respond and you don't want to lose the opportunity just because you weren't prepared!

As a side-note... there are some inaccuracies with with the "unofficial rankings" according to official rankings: 1973 should have 9; 4796 should have 9; 4628 should have 23 (if they were picked 7th not 10th); 4546 should have 23; 3499 should have 25; 3280 should have 46; 3461 should have 20; 2342 should have 12; 121 should have 44; 1350 should have 57; 3718 should have 56; 2064 should have 63; and 4048 should have 75.

MikeE 26-03-2014 17:07

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter (Post 1365211)
My current prediction based off of the current points scored (2x first event for those who have only one event, with adjustments for Hartford, NEU, and Pine Tree being more full and for the chunk of points being absorbed by 3rd-event teams) is that the cut-off will be at 59 points. Currently the 6 DCA winners are all above this cut-off, so this could be the actual cut-off.

I'm slightly increasing my earlier estimate of a 57-58 cutoff up to 59-60 based on analysis of all teams having completed their first event and a better sense of how teams earned points in their first and second event (second event shows a mean 23% increase in points scored mostly due to the observation below). But as Nathan correctly points out there are likely to be many teams who qualify but are unable to attend so teams with lower points scores will be at the District Championship.

This was also the first week of competitions where there was a substantial proportion of second event teams and the impact on outcomes was quite dramatic.
Second event teams averaged 35 points at both RIDE and Southington whereas first event teams averaged only 14 and 17 points respectively. The primary cause was elimination selection. At RIDE 18 of the 21 second event teams made it to eliminations compared to only 6 of 16 first event teams. The pattern was similar in Southington with 19 of 20 second event teams advancing vs only 5 of 12 first event teams.

The most obvious explanation would be that experience playing the game helps performance, but it does suggest that there is some specific strategic benefit to teams picking events to compete in (small events over larger events and first event early, second event in the middle of the season).

PVCpirate 27-03-2014 01:11

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter (Post 1365211)
As a side-note... there are some inaccuracies with with the "unofficial rankings" according to official rankings: 1973 should have 9; 4796 should have 9; 4628 should have 23 (if they were picked 7th not 10th); 4546 should have 23; 3499 should have 25; 3280 should have 46; 3461 should have 20; 2342 should have 12; 121 should have 44; 1350 should have 57; 3718 should have 56; 2064 should have 63; and 4048 should have 75.

Sorry I'm not perfect! :D That's why I've been trying to emphasize that they're not official, I'm going for speed over accuracy and I make plenty of mistakes.

Nathan Streeter 27-03-2014 10:05

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PVCpirate (Post 1365486)
Sorry I'm not perfect! :D That's why I've been trying to emphasize that they're not official, I'm going for speed over accuracy and I make plenty of mistakes.

Anthony, just wanted to make sure you know that I'm in no way criticizing your work! :-) I'm really glad you've been doing this so promptly after events for the NE community... it is a huge amount of effort! I definitely understand making a few mistakes... a number of the inaccuracies were actually with unusual cases or where there was inconsistent data, which makes it even more understandable!

Knowing how much work you put into it, I just wanted to save you a little time by sharing the inaccuracies since I had already found them. Thank you for your work on making and updating these unofficial standings; it is very much appreciated!

loyal 27-03-2014 10:52

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
[quote=Nathan Streeter;1365562. Thank you for your work on making and updating these unofficial standings; it is very much appreciated![/QUOTE]

mega ditto

PVCpirate 27-03-2014 13:33

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Haha thanks guys! I get robot withdrawals and look for any way to participate. Glad I could help!

mwtidd 27-03-2014 15:39

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
I broke the teams into 10 segments based on first event percentiles. Then took the average % delta of teams in each segment that had competed in 2 events. I then used that % delta to estimate the event 2 scores for teams yet to compete.

Congrats to all the DCA winners already in!

Here are the top 59 based on these calculations:

Code:

rank        team        score
1        58        140
2        177        138
3        176        138
4        2877        121
5        1519        120
6        1991        118
7        236        118
8        4564        115
9        131        115
10        195        114
11        237        114
12        716        112
13        5122        111
14        319        107
15        4761        106
16        138        104
17        230        103
18        4555        100
19        133        96
20        228        94
21        4958        93
22        175        90
23        2168        90
24        125        90
25        166        90
26        4473        89
27        2067        88
28        172        88
29        190        85
30        999        81
31        5112        80
32        3930        77
33        4908        76
34        178        75
35        4909        75
36        4048        75
37        1786        75
38        97        75
39        4055        73
40        2084        72
41        1517        70
42        61        69
43        3525        68
44        1071        68
45        2064        63
46        1735        62
47        1699        61
48        3597        59
49        1058        59
50        3323        59
51        1099        59
52        348        59
53        213        58
54        1350        57
55        95        57
56        246        57
57        1073        57
58        3718        56
59        5163        56


Chi Meson 28-03-2014 06:49

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
You're missing Robo Squad, 558; with 107 points they should be tied at 14th on this list.

Steven Donow 28-03-2014 06:53

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chi Meson (Post 1365893)
You're missing Robo Squad, 558; with 107 points they should be tied at 14th on this list.

As well as 3467, who should be pretty high up having had 71 points at UNH

Jay O'Donnell 28-03-2014 06:56

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Steven Donow (Post 1365894)
As well as 3467, who should be pretty high up having had 71 points at UNH

I think he took out Chairman's award winners since they qualify already. Explains why 3467 and 558 are two of the teams not included.

Steven Donow 28-03-2014 06:57

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell (Post 1365895)
I think he took out Chairman's award winners since they qualify already. Explains why 3467 and 558 are two of the teams not included.

Good observation, my bad.

mwtidd 28-03-2014 07:19

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell (Post 1365895)
I think he took out Chairman's award winners since they qualify already. Explains why 3467 and 558 are two of the teams not included.

Yeah, sorry bout that.

Congrats to 78, 3467, 558, 2648, 811, and 1100 on their DCA wins!

scaryone 28-03-2014 12:38

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lineskier (Post 1365697)
I broke the teams into 10 segments based on first event percentiles. Then took the average % delta of teams in each segment that had competed in 2 events. I then used that % delta to estimate the event 2 scores for teams yet to compete.

Congrats to all the DCA winners already in!

Here are the top 59 based on these calculations:

Code:

rank        team        score
1        58        140
2        177        138
3        176        138
4        2877        121
5        1519        120
6        1991        118
7        236        118
8        4564        115
9        131        115
10        195        114
11        237        114
12        716        112
13        5122        111
14        319        107
15        4761        106
16        138        104
17        230        103
18        4555        100
19        133        96
20        228        94
21        4958        93
22        175        90
23        2168        90
24        125        90
25        166        90
26        4473        89
27        2067        88
28        172        88
29        190        85
30        999        81
31        5112        80
32        3930        77
33        4908        76
34        178        75
35        4909        75
36        4048        75
37        1786        75
38        97        75
39        4055        73
40        2084        72
41        1517        70
42        61        69
43        3525        68
44        1071        68
45        2064        63
46        1735        62
47        1699        61
48        3597        59
49        1058        59
50        3323        59
51        1099        59
52        348        59
53        213        58
54        1350        57
55        95        57
56        246        57
57        1073        57
58        3718        56
59        5163        56


Looks good to me ;)

TD78 28-03-2014 12:43

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lineskier (Post 1365899)
Yeah, sorry bout that.

Congrats to 78, 3467, 558, 2648, 811, and 1100 on their DCA wins!

What do you get when you add all those DCA teams in? Because not all of the DCA teams are going to earn a DCMP CA, and if they want to go to WCMP, the robot will need to qualify on points.

mwtidd 28-03-2014 13:33

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TD78 (Post 1365973)
What do you get when you add all those DCA teams in? Because not all of the DCA teams are going to earn a DCMP CA, and if they want to go to WCMP, the robot will need to qualify on points.

This is what I had for those teams:

Code:

        78        121
        3467        119
        558        107
        2648        93
        811        68
        1100        67

I think it's kinda cool that it appears they all would have made it into the DCMP with points alone.

Bill_B 28-03-2014 13:58

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Why the top 59? I was under the impression that NE DCMP was 54 teams. Or 45 after the 9 DCAs were considered.

It's true that the actual point totals should be carried forward even for the DCA qualifiers so that they are in the running for qualification to CMP.

Any among the *'d teams ready to pass on their likely invitation to Boston? ;)

MikeE 31-03-2014 12:16

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill_B (Post 1366003)
Why the top 59? I was under the impression that NE DCMP was 54 teams. Or 45 after the 9 DCAs were considered.

There are 5 New England teams that are pre-qualified for World Championships as either Hall of Fame or Original & Sustaining teams. Some of these may choose not to attend the New England District Championships if they are already planning to attend St. Louis.
I suspect that's why the top 59 (54+5) were listed.

Back to the original thread topic.
After Week 5 my calculations show the 54th ranked team at 58 points, with 32 teams below that threshold still to play their second scoring event at PineTree.

Nathan Streeter 01-04-2014 11:58

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
My predicted cut-off to make it to DCMP has risen to 62-64pts after the Week 5 districts! That said, the next 10 teams (down to #64) all have at least 57 points... I don't think anyone really knows how far down the list teams will end up being invited (due to declines above #54), but I personally wouldn't be surprised if it gets down below #64 on the list.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeE (Post 1367177)
There are 5 New England teams that are pre-qualified for World Championships as either Hall of Fame or Original & Sustaining teams. Some of these may choose not to attend the New England District Championships if they are already planning to attend St. Louis.
I suspect that's why the top 59 (54+5) were listed.

While some of these teams may choose not to attend DCMP (I understand reasoning behind that), I don't think other teams should make these Hall of Fame and Original & Sustaining Teams feel like they should opt out of DCMP (an attitude that they should sit out from other teams seems pretty darn un-GP in my opinion!). The District Championship is designed to have the best-of-the-best from New England... it only seems appropriate that these excellent NE teams be at the best NE competition!

That said, if a HOF or O&S Team decides to opt-out of DCMP despite qualifying for it for other personal reasons (i.e. saving money for CMP registration), then I definitely understand. What I absolutely don't want is for these 5 excellent, historic teams to be pushed out of their spots at DCMP because they are concerned about a selfish attitude other teams have.

As a side-note, 2 of the HOF or O&S teams are projected to be below the 54-team cut-off.

As another side-note, I'm in no way criticizing MikeE even though I quoted his post. It seems to me like he was just explaining why 59 teams may have been selected.

mwtidd 01-04-2014 12:38

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeE (Post 1367177)
There are 5 New England teams that are pre-qualified for World Championships as either Hall of Fame or Original & Sustaining teams. Some of these may choose not to attend the New England District Championships if they are already planning to attend St. Louis.
I suspect that's why the top 59 (54+5) were listed.

Back to the original thread topic.
After Week 5 my calculations show the 54th ranked team at 58 points, with 32 teams below that threshold still to play their second scoring event at PineTree.

It's actually far simpler than that. I wanted to do top 60 but then realized that the 60th team fell into another point bracket. So 59 seemed good enough :).

As points were estimated for many of the teams, I wanted to leave some buffer.

MikeE 01-04-2014 15:38

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter (Post 1367829)
As another side-note, I'm in no way criticizing MikeE even though I quoted his post. It seems to me like he was just explaining why 59 teams may have been selected.[/size]

I'm definitely not above criticism but Nathan is correct that the purpose of my post was to give a possible explanation for 59 teams in the list, although even there lineskier has shown I was wrong!

I agree that it would be awesome to see the best 54 teams in New England compete in Boston* so I'm absolutely not suggesting that any pre-qualified World Championship teams should skip the event, although I believe some have already decided to do so for financial/logistic reasons.

* Based on proportion of teams attending, the average qualification match at the New England Championship should be as competitive as a typical semi-final match at a District event, and arguably better. How crazy is that?

Samwaldo 01-04-2014 16:04

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
It feels wierd being so close to the edge right now (50th). Very frightening in fact. Its our best performing robot ever and the last for me.

Being so close to the edge, i feel that the cut off will be very close to 61pts! (We are 59pts) This makes me all the more curious, are you OR have you heard of another team that will be declining an invite?

mwtidd 01-04-2014 19:47

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Same algorithm, new ranks.

63 points to clinch.

Code:

        Team        score        dca
1        3467        148        DCA
2        78        121        DCA
3        558        107        DCA
4        2648        93        DCA
5        2067        88        DCA
6        811        68        DCA
7        1100        67        DCA
8        1058        65        DCA
9        58        139       
10        4564        133       
11        5122        130       
12        177        129       
13        319        124       
14        1519        120       
15        4555        117       
16        131        115       
17        133        115       
18        195        114       
19        176        111       
20        2877        110       
21        166        107       
22        172        104       
23        138        104       
24        230        103       
25        236        95       
26        1991        93       
27        175        90       
28        2168        90       
29        125        90       
30        1071        90       
31        4473        89       
32        237        88       
33        190        85       
34        3930        83       
35        4908        80       
36        5112        80       
37        716        79       
38        178        75       
39        4909        75       
40        4048        75       
41        5129        74       
42        4055        73       
43        4761        72       
44        1517        70       
45        61        69       
46        5000        68       
47        228        67       
48        246        66       
49        69        66       
50        1073        64       
51        4958        63       
52        2064        63       
53        2084        63       
54        3525        63


Jay O'Donnell 01-04-2014 19:51

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lineskier (Post 1368112)
Same algorithm, new ranks.

63 points to clinch.

Code:

        Team        score       
1        3467        148        DCA
2        78        121        DCA
3        558        107        DCA
4        2648        93        DCA
5        2067        88        DCA
6        811        68        DCA
7        1100        67        DCA
8        1058        65        DCA
9        58        167       
10        4564        135       
11        5122        130       
12        177        129       
13        319        128       
14        1519        120       
15        4555        117       
16        131        115       
17        133        115       
18        195        114       
19        176        111       
20        2877        110       
21        166        107       
22        172        104       
23        138        104       
24        230        103       
25        1786        47       
26        236        95       
27        1991        93       
28        175        90       
29        2168        90       
30        125        90       
31        4473        89       
32        237        88       
33        1071        90       
34        190        85       
35        4908        80       
36        5112        80       
37        716        79       
38        178        75       
39        4909        75       
40        4048        75       
41        5129        74       
42        4055        73       
43        4761        72       
44        1517        70       
45        61        69       
46        5000        68       
47        228        67       
48        246        66       
49        69        66       
50        1073        64       
51        4958        63       
52        2064        63       
53        2084        63       
54        3525        63       
55        1735        62       
56        1699        61       
57        999        60       
58        3323        59       
59        1099        59       
60        348        59       
61        1153        59


Why is 1786 randomly in 25th? (higher than they should be)

mwtidd 01-04-2014 20:09

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell (Post 1368115)
Why is 1786 randomly in 25th? (higher than they should be)

Because excel is crazy like that, and sometimes opts not to sort appropriately :). Fixed it in the post.

Steve Kaneb 01-04-2014 22:13

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Samwaldo (Post 1367990)
Being so close to the edge, i feel that the cut off will be very close to 61pts! (We are 59pts) This makes me all the more curious, are you OR have you heard of another team that will be declining an invite?

FRC190 is not going to attend the DCMP. Our structure and financial situation makes it easiest to plan for Worlds instead, and we'll be going there every year. We took the opportunity to do an "away event" this year (Alamo) in addition to our two district events.

Teched3 02-04-2014 20:48

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Kaneb (Post 1368180)
FRC190 is not going to attend the DCMP. Our structure and financial situation makes it easiest to plan for Worlds instead, and we'll be going there every year. We took the opportunity to do an "away event" this year (Alamo) in addition to our two district events.

Your team will be missed in Boston, but we look forward to seeing you in St. Louis.:) :)

Trey178 03-04-2014 17:45

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Personally, this will be my first time in the Agganis Arena. I missed out on our team's previous Boston appearance in 2009. All I know is with a total record of 8-3-1 and winning EIA, we did very well. Now a week away from the DCMP, we have had a banner season both in competition and awards. We had winning qualifier records at all 3 district events we attended (including a Groton QF upset of the #1 alliance) and won our 7th EIA. Our current overall NE rank is 25th so our DCMP ticket is just about punched. Being one of its countless college grads, I always welcome a trip to Beantown. For now I will contain my excitement until I walk through the door.

Win or lose this going to be awesome!

To 1099, hope you guys make it! We worked so well together in Groton. :D

mwtidd 06-04-2014 12:40

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Ah, I was 53 for 54 in my pick list. Totally stoked to see 4925 clinch a spot with that Rookie All Star Award!

MarcD79 06-04-2014 12:55

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
@ Trevor; I will see you in Boston! Are you volunteering? I hope I get as chance to work with you again. I met quite a few great volunteers this year & you were one of them.

Trey178 06-04-2014 16:01

Re: [NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MarcD79 (Post 1369859)
@ Trevor; I will see you in Boston! Are you volunteering? I hope I get as chance to work with you again. I met quite a few great volunteers this year & you were one of them.

The compliment is appreciated Marc, but I'm sticking with my team for the rest of the season. Until recently, I didn't think I'd be able to attend the DCMP so I never signed up to volunteer. I do, however, have my name down for the State Championship. Whether I'm on Field crew or not remains to be seen.


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