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[NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff
after week 1 of competition we thought the point cutoff was going to be around 60 but now were starting to reconsider. With my team only having 22 points (we counted, not official) (won 5 qualification matches - 10 pts got picked next to last - 2 points won the quarter finals 10 pts = 22) meaning we would need 38 ponts (at least) to get to the district championship. I wanted some other opinions of what the cutoff may be.
Thanks Paul |
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Doesn't exactly answer your question, but this might give you some idea of where you stand. http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=127672
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From the start I always thought the minimum points would be 50 or 60. So my guess would be 55 points then you are out. I really think that's what it will take to squeak in.
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So 60 teams get into Boston, do Rookie All-Stars and District Chairman's winners take away from that? If so, it is really only the top 42 point-getters (That's a minimum, because there are definitely going to be some top-60 teams that double qualify (chairmans/all-star + point ranking)). My original thought was that it would take about 70 to get in. But if awards take Boston slots, then I would venture to say that it may be closer to 80 points to get in.
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With that said, typically, teams that win Chairmans normally would have qualified via points anyway, so it makes little impact on the amount of points you would need to get in. |
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tldr: probably 57 or 58 pts but we'll know far more this time next week
The answer to this question really depends on two things we don't know yet:
Points being allocated to teams in their third event and therefore discarded will also reduce the cutoff threshold by suppressing the total number of points awarded during the district event phase of the season. We're not quite half way into the season (4 of 9 district events complete) so it's a little early to have a solid prediction; while 9% of teams have completed both scored events over 15% haven't played in any event yet. A graph of districts by first, second and third event teams ![]() Choosing the top 54 robots of 163 teams in New England means we are selecting the top third of teams. In each of the 4 events so far the top tercile (I had to look up that word too) is between 26 and 36 points, averaging 32, so a simple answer is that championship threshold will be twice that. My current estimate is that the threshold will be slightly lower, probably 57 or 58pts, but in a few days the Week 4 events will be concluding. At that point every team will have played at least one event and a third of teams will have competed in both events, so we should have a far better idea of where the threshold will fall. If anyone is still reading, here are some unofficial stats for the events so far Code:
Event NHNAS NHDUR CTGRO MAWOR |
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Teams playing in more than two events become spoilers. This is like most all play offs. When they win they take points away from other teams denying an advancement. This is all cool. But some thing I was thinking of is this. Teams playing more than two events should not be pickers or first round picks. Only last round. This would give the second event teams an opportunity to advance in the points. Make sense?
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Wasteful not in a bad way. Wasteful in a spoiler playoff way. In hockey I always loved the spoiler strategy and in NE FIRST I can see it being a viable strategy also. |
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Don't forget that there will be teams who will decline their invitation. So even though the cutoff may be X, the top 53 teams who want to go are in.
It's just like alliance selection - if you're on the bubble, create a pick list anyway. |
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So from a purely strategic point of view a team should go to the earliest and smallest events possible, all other things being equal. |
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And there are multiple reasons to go to 3+ events. For example - One of our events is geared towards training the next generation of folks without worrying about hurting our chances at qualifying. It's a fun chance that we feel is well worth the extra cost. And for those who said we shouldn't be allowed to be picked - That would actually hurt the higher seeded points as teams that do 3+ events tend to have more on field experience and perform well. This would mean that #8 would be able to pick the best 3+ event team which would defeat one of the main benefits of being #1 (being able to pick whoever you want)... Plus that's like saying teams shouldn't be allowed to play in multiple events... |
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I know that teams don't get points for qualifying in their third or fourth event, but theoretically could they qualify for NE champs by winning the chairman's award at their third or fourth event?
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I'm just thinking again. So an example, team xxx is a power house and at a third event with 3 other power house teams. They rank 1,2,3,4. If 1 picks 2 and 3 picks 4 that's 64 points going nowhere. Of course this is hypothetical. I understand what Jess said. A team could decline. But it is a viable strategy. Couldn't it happen this way? |
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Given where the cut-off was in MI in 2013 (I don't recall off the top of my head; I think it was around 52-54) the prediction of 57 to 58 seems reasonable given the various changes from FiM 2013 to NEFIRST 2014 (rookie/second year points, different percentage of teams making DCMP, higher point values for many awards in 2014, etc.). As Jess said though, the cut-off won't be solid... a fair number of teams will likely decide not to go to DCMP for a variety of reasons, even if they are above the threshold. This will shift the effective threshold downwards by some to-be-determined amount. Agreed that predictions should be far better after this week, when all the teams will've played their first event and a larger percentage will've played their second event. |
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There are approximately ~8800 points allocated from events and just 225 from the age bonus so the overall impact on the threshold is small. Of course it will elevate some young teams who are close to the threshold, but that is expected and was the stated purpose of the age bonus. It will have a much bigger impact in Michigan where almost 40% of teams are rookies or in their second year. Applying the NE ratio of teams attending Championship to last year's Michigan points data (rescored with the new unified point model) would have given a threshold of 58pts. That's one of other data points that went into my 57-58pt estimate. |
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A quick look at statistical probability dictates a 47-48 point cutoff if factors like 90% acceptance, 20% point removal by teams that attend 3 district events ETC.
For the worlds assuming only an 85% acceptance my numbers tell me 103-108 points to get in. So in theory, a team might qualify for worlds without going to the District championship. |
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Are you factoring in that the points triple for everything at the DCMP? |
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Yes, Look at the average score of the teams in the 16-24 in points scored.
Say 25 x 3 + 47 Now consider all that will decline the invite Does seem low but I believe unless the acceptance rate gets above 90% Who knows |
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If you assume everyone who hasn't played 2 districts is able to repeat their performance the 24th best team will have 86 pts. before district championship. Realistically, this will be probably be closer to 80. If they repeat this at the District Championship they would have 200 pts. (80 + 3x40). The MAR district simulation using last year’s data and this year’s ranking scheme had the 20th best team with 163pts and 24th with 134pts. Given the calculation above and the MAR data, I would expect to need between 150 and 170pts to qulify for Worlds depending on acceptance rate as well as number of auto qualify teams ending up in the top 24. -Eric |
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It is mathematically impossible to qualify for the Championship event if you don't attend your district championship. That's the precise reason why the 3x multiplier for the district championship was selected.
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If the points cutoff for worlds is about 150, then it would be potentially possible for the #1-3 teams in points before regional championships to make worlds without attending the regional champs, because a total of about 170 points is possible for 2 district events. But it would be very difficult to do, and I highly doubt the #1-3 teams in points would skip the regional championships.
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Is there a source for match results that has autonomous and teleop points shown separately?
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Twitter data may be replicated many places, but frcspy has precisely one entry for ctgro that is apparently practice match 2. No other filtering raised anything useful regarding the Groton matches. Bummer. :(
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I made a Q&D google spreadsheet to compute championship points values for a variety of scenarios. You can see it here. I have enabled editing for it, so please be careful to avoid scrambling it up too badly. If you have drastic revisions to make, you should be able to apply them to a copy. Please share your improvement ideas.
Whatever the cutoff turns out to be, this will help a team establish some performance goal(s) for their event(s) without having to strain the imagination too much. |
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Thanks Phil. We got thrown by a wicked curveball in autonomous when on the field. A pretty reliable routine in practice went totally sour on the field and we spent a lot of time trying to understand what difference between the field and practice was biting us. Aside from the damage to our scoring reputation, I was trying to see how much effect a better auto score would have had on the matches we lost. Our programmers have reworked the auto code and we've added some sensor usage to improve the performance overall.
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Surprisingly, the end of event reports don't give the score breakdown by part anywhere. Just final scores. So I don't think I can help you. They should change that for next year...
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Team 885 has asked for score detail for all district events...
I posted most of the WPI data under the WPI event thread. Dan H. Team 885 |
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Was any data for the other tournaments sent with it?
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To me it still looks like 55 points will be the cut off to get to NE championship. What do you guys think?
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My bet is around 65 to 70 for this year. Now I'm not doing statistics but heres why I'd say so: a team could win 8 matches in each of two events (32 points) which is thoroughly midpack. Be picked 8th at both (18 points) and then win one quarterfinal match in each event (10 points) and then win an award (5 points) or be a rookie or second year team for a grand total of 75-70 points. Which is quite good for most teams and should, this year at least, be good enough to qualify and be helpful to others at the new england championships.
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This is how I figure it. Use the unofficial ranking here on CD ok. The top 25 played twice and are a lock for the most part. The next possible to advance goes to rank 62 it looks like and that is 40 points. If every team that is eligible to advance only got 12 points (6-6-0)that would make rank 62 now be 52 points. But I see better than that. 55 is my guess.
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Dan H. |
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They could have worded it that you get 10 points for each series won, but the per match scoring takes backup robots into account where a simple 10 pts/series would not handle backup robots well. |
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We did not punch our own ticket, which is definitely the superior route! Kudos to those that have done so, or will yet do so! Dan Hudnut, mentor Team 885, Randolph, VT |
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As for the announcer, educating the masses is the toughest part of this change. We've tried a few tactics, and I think we've settled on something that works - thanks for your patience as we try to get this right! Iterate, iterate, iterate. |
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My current prediction based off of the current points scored (2x first event for those who have only one event, with adjustments for Hartford, NEU, and Pine Tree being more full and for the chunk of points being absorbed by 3rd-event teams) is that the cut-off will be at 59 points. Currently the 6 DCA winners are all above this cut-off, so this could be the actual cut-off.
I would personally recommend that the teams with at least 45 points start considering whether or not they would attend DCMP though... plenty of teams may decline an invite to DCMP for a host of reasons (i.e. cost, short-notice, travel). If you end up getting called on you'll have even less time to respond and you don't want to lose the opportunity just because you weren't prepared! As a side-note... there are some inaccuracies with with the "unofficial rankings" according to official rankings: 1973 should have 9; 4796 should have 9; 4628 should have 23 (if they were picked 7th not 10th); 4546 should have 23; 3499 should have 25; 3280 should have 46; 3461 should have 20; 2342 should have 12; 121 should have 44; 1350 should have 57; 3718 should have 56; 2064 should have 63; and 4048 should have 75. |
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This was also the first week of competitions where there was a substantial proportion of second event teams and the impact on outcomes was quite dramatic. Second event teams averaged 35 points at both RIDE and Southington whereas first event teams averaged only 14 and 17 points respectively. The primary cause was elimination selection. At RIDE 18 of the 21 second event teams made it to eliminations compared to only 6 of 16 first event teams. The pattern was similar in Southington with 19 of 20 second event teams advancing vs only 5 of 12 first event teams. The most obvious explanation would be that experience playing the game helps performance, but it does suggest that there is some specific strategic benefit to teams picking events to compete in (small events over larger events and first event early, second event in the middle of the season). |
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Knowing how much work you put into it, I just wanted to save you a little time by sharing the inaccuracies since I had already found them. Thank you for your work on making and updating these unofficial standings; it is very much appreciated! |
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[quote=Nathan Streeter;1365562. Thank you for your work on making and updating these unofficial standings; it is very much appreciated![/QUOTE]
mega ditto |
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Haha thanks guys! I get robot withdrawals and look for any way to participate. Glad I could help!
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I broke the teams into 10 segments based on first event percentiles. Then took the average % delta of teams in each segment that had competed in 2 events. I then used that % delta to estimate the event 2 scores for teams yet to compete.
Congrats to all the DCA winners already in! Here are the top 59 based on these calculations: Code:
rank team score |
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You're missing Robo Squad, 558; with 107 points they should be tied at 14th on this list.
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Congrats to 78, 3467, 558, 2648, 811, and 1100 on their DCA wins! |
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78 121 |
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Why the top 59? I was under the impression that NE DCMP was 54 teams. Or 45 after the 9 DCAs were considered.
It's true that the actual point totals should be carried forward even for the DCA qualifiers so that they are in the running for qualification to CMP. Any among the *'d teams ready to pass on their likely invitation to Boston? ;) |
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I suspect that's why the top 59 (54+5) were listed. Back to the original thread topic. After Week 5 my calculations show the 54th ranked team at 58 points, with 32 teams below that threshold still to play their second scoring event at PineTree. |
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My predicted cut-off to make it to DCMP has risen to 62-64pts after the Week 5 districts! That said, the next 10 teams (down to #64) all have at least 57 points... I don't think anyone really knows how far down the list teams will end up being invited (due to declines above #54), but I personally wouldn't be surprised if it gets down below #64 on the list.
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That said, if a HOF or O&S Team decides to opt-out of DCMP despite qualifying for it for other personal reasons (i.e. saving money for CMP registration), then I definitely understand. What I absolutely don't want is for these 5 excellent, historic teams to be pushed out of their spots at DCMP because they are concerned about a selfish attitude other teams have. As a side-note, 2 of the HOF or O&S teams are projected to be below the 54-team cut-off. As another side-note, I'm in no way criticizing MikeE even though I quoted his post. It seems to me like he was just explaining why 59 teams may have been selected. |
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As points were estimated for many of the teams, I wanted to leave some buffer. |
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I agree that it would be awesome to see the best 54 teams in New England compete in Boston* so I'm absolutely not suggesting that any pre-qualified World Championship teams should skip the event, although I believe some have already decided to do so for financial/logistic reasons. * Based on proportion of teams attending, the average qualification match at the New England Championship should be as competitive as a typical semi-final match at a District event, and arguably better. How crazy is that? |
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It feels wierd being so close to the edge right now (50th). Very frightening in fact. Its our best performing robot ever and the last for me.
Being so close to the edge, i feel that the cut off will be very close to 61pts! (We are 59pts) This makes me all the more curious, are you OR have you heard of another team that will be declining an invite? |
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Same algorithm, new ranks.
63 points to clinch. Code:
Team score dca |
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Personally, this will be my first time in the Agganis Arena. I missed out on our team's previous Boston appearance in 2009. All I know is with a total record of 8-3-1 and winning EIA, we did very well. Now a week away from the DCMP, we have had a banner season both in competition and awards. We had winning qualifier records at all 3 district events we attended (including a Groton QF upset of the #1 alliance) and won our 7th EIA. Our current overall NE rank is 25th so our DCMP ticket is just about punched. Being one of its countless college grads, I always welcome a trip to Beantown. For now I will contain my excitement until I walk through the door.
Win or lose this going to be awesome! To 1099, hope you guys make it! We worked so well together in Groton. :D |
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Ah, I was 53 for 54 in my pick list. Totally stoked to see 4925 clinch a spot with that Rookie All Star Award!
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@ Trevor; I will see you in Boston! Are you volunteering? I hope I get as chance to work with you again. I met quite a few great volunteers this year & you were one of them.
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