Chief Delphi - Week4 Twitter data analyses

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- - Week4 Twitter data analyses (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=128145)

Ether

23-03-2014 18:56

Week4 Twitter data analyses

This thread is for discussion of Week4 Twitter data analyses posted here:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2985

I will be adding additional analyses as time permits. Special requests will be considered also.

mmaunu

23-03-2014 19:40

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Let me start by saying thanks for all that you do for this community...I have grown tremendously over the last several years reading your posts.

What is uCCWM? CCWM without foul points?

Navid Shafa

23-03-2014 19:41

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

I really like EPA. Certainly more useful for cross event comparisons than raw OPR/CCWM. Wish we could tie in average event score or something of the like to EPA. Being able to view OPR separate from fouls and EPA certainly helps remove outliers from the data.

Thanks for the data as usual. :)

Ether

24-03-2014 10:26

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Quote:

Originally Posted by mmaunu (Post 1363276)

What is uCCWM? CCWM without foul points?

Yes. It's CCWM without foul points (the "u" stands for Unpenalized). Sorry about that. I forgot to explain it.

Code:



uCCWM = ( final - foul ) - ( op_final - op_foul )



"regular" CCWM = ( final - op_final )

also:

Code:



EPA = ( final - foul ) - uAvg 



DPR = op_final



uDPR = ( op_final - op_foul )

Ether

24-03-2014 14:41

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Quote:

Originally Posted by Navid Shafa (Post 1363279)

I really like EPA. Certainly more useful for cross event comparisons than raw OPR/CCWM. Wish we could tie in average event score or something of the like to EPA. Being able to view OPR separate from fouls and EPA certainly helps remove outliers from the data.

Thanks for the data as usual. :)

I just added a spreadsheet showing the average alliance scores (win, lose, all, unpenalized all, fouls) for each event.

Look for Average Alliance Scores at each Event near the bottom of the list of attachments:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2985

Not sure what the best way would be to integrate these with EPA.

Ether

25-03-2014 18:10

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

I'd like to get some feedback on which of the attachments you'd like to see again for Week5. I need to pare it back a bit.

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2985

Basel A

25-03-2014 19:53

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Posting here because it's a very similar subject.. On request of some twitter people, I used the @frcfms data to determine the % of matches determined by fouls (any change in result, including from or to ties) over the past three years, broken down into years and categories such as quals, semifinals, or 3rd match of an elimination series. Those statistics are available here: http://goo.gl/mKuTXS.

brennonbrimhall

31-03-2014 15:55

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Quote:

Originally Posted by Basel A (Post 1364795)

Any chance we could get the number of data points (FMS tweets) you used? Stuff like that's really important for generating standard errors for confidence intervals and seeing just how much of a change there's been for this year. As Walter Lewin is fond of saying, "any measurement is useless without a knowledge of the uncertainties."

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ether

I will be adding additional analyses as time permits. Special requests will be considered also.

How easy would it be to post your dataset in a format that Excel tolerates? Doing so gets you out of 2-3. ;)
Is it possible to see the percent of matches that have been decided by fouls, broken down by week and by match type (qualification/elimination)?
Using assist scores, would it be possible to determine the average number of cycles an alliance generates? Again, is it possible to see averages per week, by match type?

Ether

31-03-2014 16:18

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Quote:

Originally Posted by brennonbrimhall (Post 1367312)

How easy would it be to post your dataset in a format that Excel tolerates? Doing so gets you out of 2-3.

Thanks to Brandon, the raw Twitter data is available in CSV format this year. Knock yourself out. CSV files open directly with Excel if you have the file associations set to tell Windoze that Excel is the proper app to use to open them.

brennonbrimhall

31-03-2014 16:23

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ether (Post 1367322)

Sweet! Thanks for pointing me in the right direction.

EDIT: It doesn't seem like assist points are part of the FMS feed. Is there another resource out there I could mine for analysis?

jlmcmchl

31-03-2014 16:44

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Quote:

Originally Posted by brennonbrimhall (Post 1367327)

Sweet! Thanks for pointing me in the right direction.

EDIT: It doesn't seem like assist points are part of the FMS feed. Is there another resource out there I could mine for analysis?

The only true way to know assist points by match is to recalculate them after every match based on USFIRST's ranking page. Otherwise, you need a new data source from FIRST, i believe. The scoring/index.lasso page on USFIRST (You can find it's link and related links via a google search) looks promising, but I haven't found any match information from there.

Ether

31-03-2014 17:01

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Twitter data¹ has final score, foul points awarded, autonomous, and "TeleOp"² for each match

Match Results has final score for each match

Team Standings has Assist, autonomous, Truss&Catch, and "TeleOp"³ for each Team (total of all alliance scores for alliances on which the team played).

¹The usual Twitter data caveats apply.

²Twitter "TeleOp" is equal to Assist + T&C + Goals

³ Team Standings "TeleOp" is equal to Goals + Fouls

brennonbrimhall

31-03-2014 18:10

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

2 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by brennonbrimhall (Post 1367312)

Is it possible to see the percent of matches that have been decided by fouls, broken down by week and by match type (qualification/elimination)?

I thought I'd post my analysis -- I was looking to see if the proportion of matches that ended in fouls was increasing, decreasing, or staying the same. I ran a Chi-Square GOF test on the expected number of matches decided by fouls against the number of matches played that week times the total average rate of matches decided by fouls.

My null hypothesis was that each match had the same proportion of matches decided by fouls. With the percentage of matches that are decided by fouls being 23.34%, my x^2 value ended up being 46.4. I came up with a p-value of 5.06945E-07. So clearly, weeks and match type produce different numbers of matches decided by fouls.

Code:

        MDBF        Played        Expected        Difference        X^2                Std. Resid.

1E:        29        159        37.11062625        -8.110626253        1.772598979        -1.331389868

1Q:        228        783        182.7523293        45.24767072        11.20287612        3.347069781

2E:        61        205        47.84703385        13.15296615        3.615699965        1.901499399

2Q:        312        1039        242.5027716        69.49722845        19.91674046        4.462817547

3E:        48        264        61.61764359        -13.61764359        3.009531137        -1.734800028

3Q:        293        1237        288.7160042        4.283995754        0.06356634        0.25212366

4E:        41        245        57.18304045        -16.18304045        4.579868371        -2.140062702

4Q:        253        1184        276.3457955        -23.34579549        1.972261479        -1.404372272

5E:        64        283        66.05224673        -2.052246727        0.063763412        -0.252514182

5Q:        340        1493        348.4664465        -8.466446515        0.205703353        -0.453545316

But, there's not really a solid trend. I would have liked to see the number of matches decided by fouls go down by week, but it's not that clear cut. It will be interesting to see Week 6 results and how they compare.

brennonbrimhall

31-03-2014 18:12

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Quote:

Originally Posted by jlmcmchl (Post 1367342)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ether (Post 1367361)

That's too bad that FIRST doesn't give that to us on a per-match basis. Thanks for the clarification.

Ether

31-03-2014 18:56

Re: Week4 Twitter data analyses

Quote:

Originally Posted by brennonbrimhall (Post 1367424)

That's too bad that FIRST doesn't give that to us on a per-match basis.

Join the chorus. Talk it up. Find out if there's a mentor on your team who might know someone within FIRST who would have the interest and authority to make that happen.

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...58&postcount=4

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...61#post1144161

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...1&postcount=15

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...4&postcount=20

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...6&postcount=17

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...65&postcount=3

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...81&postcount=9

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