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-   -   Einstein 2014 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=128847)

Cory 20-04-2014 21:29

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace (Post 1376972)
Six seasons ago, a team with a robot that could not perform the game's signature scoring function nevertheless seeded #1 at a week 1 regional. Later that season they were the final pick in their CMP division, and that alliance* won on Einstein.

Looking back it is hard to fathom how that alliance was allowed to form. I guess only the best scouts at CMP could see it at time.


*
*1114, 217, 148

Not the best example. 1114 was going to win with just about anyone. John even publicly posted that his fridge could have been put on the field in place of 148, and they still would have won.

Grim Tuesday 20-04-2014 21:41

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cory (Post 1377023)
Not the best example. 1114 was going to win with just about anyone. John even publicly posted that his fridge could have been put on the field in place of 148, and they still would have won.

Everyone said 1114/469 would win 2010 CMP but then look what happened.

Kabir Manghnani 20-04-2014 21:45

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday (Post 1377029)
Everyone said 1114/469 would win 2010 CMP but then look what happened.

I believe Cory meant that year in particular, 1114's robot in 2008 was pretty spectacular, a design that a lot of teams have borrowed from for this season.

Abhishek R 20-04-2014 21:46

Re: Einstein 2014
 
A better example might be the 2013 World Champions. I wasn't there so I might have missed something, but I'm not sure how 610, a robot capable of scoring 112 points by itself without ever picking a disc up off the ground fell to be a third pick. They even had pretty alright full-court capability and a removable blocker.

ErvinI 20-04-2014 21:49

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday (Post 1377029)
Everyone said 1114/469 would win 2010 CMP but then look what happened.

148 made no statistical difference in terms of wins for the 1114/217/148 alliance. For the 469/1114 alliance, they could have had anything from JVN's fridge to 67 as their third robot and yet they still would have lost that second match because the third robot would get stuck in the goal.

Lij2015 20-04-2014 22:01

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by bkahl (Post 1376921)
With that said, here are my picks:

Archimedes:
33 27 3525

Curie:
254 118 3015

Galileo:
148 67 2363

Newton:
1114 1285 3928

Archimedes over Curie
Newton over Galileo

Archimedes in 3

Thanks for the shout-out!
To be on that alliance on Einstein would be beyond amazing!

PayneTrain 20-04-2014 22:34

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Abhishek R (Post 1377033)
A better example might be the 2013 World Champions. I wasn't there so I might have missed something, but I'm not sure how 610, a robot capable of scoring 112 points by itself without ever picking a disc up off the ground fell to be a third pick. They even had pretty alright full-court capability and a removable blocker.

I sat in the stands on Galileo and still couldn't believe it. When 8 started going back, I kept saying "they're gonna pick 610." I still don't believe it.

Mr. Lim 20-04-2014 23:11

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Abhishek R (Post 1377033)
A better example might be the 2013 World Champions. I wasn't there so I might have missed something, but I'm not sure how 610, a robot capable of scoring 112 points by itself without ever picking a disc up off the ground fell to be a third pick. They even had pretty alright full-court capability and a removable blocker.

I don't think anyone on 610 complained about the result, of course...

But yes, we were surprised we fell that far. We knew we were going to fall because we weren't a tall FCS, nor did we have a ground intake. We just weren't expecting to fall that far.

We were ranked #10 in the FRC Top 25 going in to champs. So we didn't really "fly under the radar." Our 112 point single-handed match was a popular video, and showed us doing 3 auton discs and 7 cycles without missing a single disc, and dodging defenders. People knew who we were, and that we had a pretty good robot.

In fact, a lot of "pure cyclers" fell really far last year - not just us. I will even go as far to say that a lot of "decent shooters" will fall significantly this year, with some missing elims altogether because alliances chose to pick superior inbounders + defenders instead.

So I guess my response to all the "far-fetched" alliances proposed in this thread:

"Crazier things have happened... especially at champs."

Procolsaurus 20-04-2014 23:35

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Lim (Post 1377074)

In fact, a lot of "pure cyclers" fell really far last year - not just us. I will even go as far to say that a lot of "decent shooters" will fall significantly this year, with some missing elims altogether because alliances chose to pick superior inbounders + defenders instead.

Thankfully this year there are 32 teams going to eliminations.

I think the specialized teams will be taken on the 8 ->1 selections then the rest of the pretty strong carry teams will end up being the second 1 -> 8.

Richard Wallace 21-04-2014 05:53

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cory (Post 1377023)
Not the best example. 1114 was going to win with just about anyone. John even publicly posted that his fridge could have been put on the field in place of 148, and they still would have won.

So, in 2008, the GDC gave us a 3 robot game that could be won at its highest level, without the assistance of one of the robots? Then this year's game is a step in the right direction.

Maybe Overdrive needed a third trackball for each alliance, or more lap points in teleop. As I recall, 2008 was a challenging year for referees also.

Abhishek R 21-04-2014 08:54

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace (Post 1377133)
So, in 2008, the GDC gave us a 3 robot game that could be won at its highest level, without the assistance of one of the robots? Then this year's game is a step in the right direction.

Maybe Overdrive needed a third trackball for each alliance, or more lap points in teleop. As I recall, 2008 was a challenging year for referees also.

He's saying the game could be won with that specific robot, 1114, because they were so dominant. It's like 2012 or 2013 where one bot could carry an alliance, or the top 2 at a regional could team up and be far ahead of everyone else. Except in this scenario, the margin was smaller, but 1114 was still above everyone else by enough to reduce the impart of the third robot, especially when the scoring was fairly linear.

Chris Hibner 21-04-2014 09:36

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Abhishek R (Post 1377151)
He's saying the game could be won with that specific robot, 1114, because they were so dominant. It's like 2012 or 2013 where one bot could carry an alliance, or the top 2 at a regional could team up and be far ahead of everyone else. Except in this scenario, the margin was smaller, but 1114 was still above everyone else by enough to reduce the impart of the third robot, especially when the scoring was fairly linear.

To add to that, many people thought 217 was the 2nd best robot in FIRST that year. So when 1114 picked 217, many people thought the competition was already done. That's not to say that 148 wasn't great in their role - that was the perfect robot for that alliance.

Starke 21-04-2014 10:03

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Hibner (Post 1377171)
To add to that, many people thought 217 was the 2nd best robot in FIRST that year. So when 1114 picked 217, many people thought the competition was already done. That's not to say that 148 wasn't great in their role - that was the perfect robot for that alliance.

Something interesting to note is that the unbeatable 1114 robot in 2008 lost in the semifinals in two matches at IRI that year.

http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2008iri_sf1m1

http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2008iri_sf1m2

Only at IRI.....

Andrew Schreiber 21-04-2014 10:16

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamHeard (Post 1376954)
ITT, people who don't know about 4 robot alliances.

TIL that reading the rulebook is sometimes useful.

Hallry 21-04-2014 10:30

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Starke (Post 1377180)
Something interesting to note is that the unbeatable 1114 robot in 2008 lost in the semifinals in two matches at IRI that year.

http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2008iri_sf1m1

http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2008iri_sf1m2

Only at IRI.....

Though, it doesn't look like 1114 was working in the first match, and I don't see (or hear) 2056 on the field for the second match.

This is also back when 2056 was 'Patriotics' rather than 'OP Robotics'...took me a second to get used to that when the announcer said their name.

dodar 21-04-2014 10:33

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Starke (Post 1377180)
Something interesting to note is that the unbeatable 1114 robot in 2008 lost in the semifinals in two matches at IRI that year.

http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2008iri_sf1m1

http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2008iri_sf1m2

Only at IRI.....

Good 'ol Alliance Flags. Back when bumpers were fashion statements.

sammyjalex 21-04-2014 16:56

Re: Einstein 2014
 
My favorite game :)

A: 20 2056 1538 334
C: 254 469 177 842
G: 1717 67 973 869
N: 1114 16 25 1574

A over C
N over G

A over N

Go Archimedes!

ErvinI 21-04-2014 22:45

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Using predicted standings to figure out who the captains are and then using max OPR to figure out who they are going to pick, this is what I got for Einstein:

Archimedes: 1477, 1625, 175, 2607
Curie: 469, 1718, 230 , 1732
Galileo: 3683, 148, 70, 1730
Newton: 1986, 1114, 3928, 3824

Curie over Archimedes
Newton over Galileo

Curie World Champions

I don't like how the data came out, so I'm just leaving this here for now in case any of these alliances come true. Feel free to bug me if you want the other alliances that formed. There aren't that many surprises in terms of seeding upsets when it comes to OPR.

XaulZan11 21-04-2014 22:50

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ErvinI (Post 1377594)

Archimedes: 1477, 1625, 175, 2607
Curie: 469, 1718, 230 , 1732
Galileo: 3683, 148, 70, 1730
Newton: 1986, 1114, 3928, 3824

I bet I can guess which alliance Aren Hill would root NOT to win.

electroken 22-04-2014 05:56

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ErvinI (Post 1377594)
Using predicted standings to figure out who the captains are and then using max OPR to figure out who they are going to pick, this is what I got for Einstein:

Archimedes: 1477, 1625, 175, 2607
Curie: 469, 1718, 230 , 1732
Galileo: 3683, 148, 70, 1730
Newton: 1986, 1114, 3928, 3824

Curie over Archimedes
Newton over Galileo

Curie World Champions

I don't like how the data came out, so I'm just leaving this here for now in case any of these alliances come true. Feel free to bug me if you want the other alliances that formed. There aren't that many surprises in terms of seeding upsets when it comes to OPR.

I like the way you think...

Ernst 22-04-2014 09:04

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by electroken (Post 1377669)
I like the way you think...

I'm totally ok with those predictions. Somebody has to be the first 4th bot to win CMP.

MamaSpoldi 22-04-2014 12:55

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ErvinI (Post 1377594)
Using predicted standings to figure out who the captains are and then using max OPR to figure out who they are going to pick, this is what I got for Einstein:

Archimedes: 1477, 1625, 175, 2607
Curie: 469, 1718, 230 , 1732
Galileo: 3683, 148, 70, 1730
Newton: 1986, 1114, 3928, 3824

Curie over Archimedes
Newton over Galileo

Curie World Champions

I don't like how the data came out, so I'm just leaving this here for now in case any of these alliances come true. Feel free to bug me if you want the other alliances that formed. There aren't that many surprises in terms of seeding upsets when it comes to OPR.

If that's how the numbers work out then we will just have to accept it. :D

I-DOG 22-04-2014 13:14

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Archimedes
Winners: 2nd Seed *2056, 33, 20, 2158
Finalists: 1st Seed 1477, 1625, 4911, 1816

*Team declined the 1st Seed

Curie
Winners: 5th Seed *1718, 359, 624, 1714
Finalists: 2nd Seed 1241, 118, 11, 3015

*Team declined the 3rd Seed

Galileo
Winners: 1st Seed 67, 148, 1730, 1717
Finalists: 6th Seed 836, 188, 973, 1218

Newton
Winners: 3rd Seed 610, 1678, 330, 1983
Finalists: 1st Seed 1986, 1114, 3284, 1806

Einstein
2013 World Champions: 67, 148, 1730, 1717
Finalists: 2056, 33, 20, 2158

JohnSchneider 22-04-2014 14:06

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by I-DOG (Post 1377767)
Galileo
Winners: 1st Seed 67, 148, 1730, 1717
Finalists: 6th Seed 836, 188, 973, 1218

1717 as a 4th robot? :confused:

Anupam Goli 22-04-2014 14:18

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnSchneider (Post 1377781)
1717 as a 4th robot? :confused:

1717's 2 ball auto would warrant them 2nd robot status alone...

dodar 22-04-2014 14:25

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Anupam Goli (Post 1377784)
1717's 2 ball auto would warrant them 2nd robot status alone...

You do realize how many teams have 2 ball autos this year, right?

dellagd 22-04-2014 14:26

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Anupam Goli (Post 137784)
1717's 2 ball auto would warrant them 2nd robot status alone...

I think a 2 ball auton isnt going to be that uncommon. Regardless, teams shouldnt have that much trouble picking 3 robots that all can do a high autonomous, hot too.

Woolly 22-04-2014 14:26

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by I-DOG (Post 1377767)
Archimedes
Winners: 2nd Seed *2056, 33, 20, 2158
Finalists: 1st Seed 1477, 1625, 4911, 1816

*Team declined the 1st Seed

Curie
Winners: 5th Seed *1718, 359, 624, 1714
Finalists: 2nd Seed 1241, 118, 11, 3015

*Team declined the 3rd Seed

Galileo
Winners: 1st Seed 67, 148, 1730, 1717
Finalists: 6th Seed 836, 188, 973, 1218

Newton
Winners: 3rd Seed 610, 1678, 330, 1983
Finalists: 1st Seed 1986, 1114, 3284, 1806

Einstein
2013 World Champions: 67, 148, 1730, 1717
Finalists: 2056, 33, 20, 2158

I'm not complaining, but this seems disproportionately Missourian.

I-DOG 22-04-2014 14:30

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnSchneider (Post 1377781)
1717 as a 4th robot? :confused:

Stranger things have happened and if 1717's consistency issues come back, they could easily fall even lower. Don't get me wrong, I love 1717 and I think that they have the potential to be a seed captain.

However, scouting hiccups happen, unexpected teams seed high, teams under perform and then explode in the elims, etc. I'm sure no one expected the alliance of 1241, 610, and 1477 to ever happen last year. That's what makes an unpredictable game so unpredictable.

To give another example: People doubted that 217 would be the 24th pick in Newton last year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Woolly (Post 1377789)
I'm not complaining, but this seems disproportionately Missourian.

Especially that Newton 1st seed, right? There are so many of you guys in Newton! I tried to not be disproportionately Texan, Californian, Michiganite, or Canadian. I guess somehow I moved to Missouri in the process...

#stlouisforstlouis #mammothofmissouri #iamtitanium #swatthesehatersoffme #driventoeinstein #firem4hlaser :cool:
#rememberthealamo

RoboAlum 22-04-2014 16:44

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Since the predicted ranks came out Im gonna revise my predictions:

Archimedes:

1st Seed: 1477,2485,20,900

Curie:

2nd Seed:1241,254,1501,2478

Galileo:

6th Seed: 67,1717,2481,179

Newton:

2nd Seed: 971,1114,610,3147

Einstein:

Curie V Archimedes
Winner Curie

Newton V Galileo
Winner Newton

Curie V Newton
Winner and Champion Curie

David8696 22-04-2014 18:44

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RoboAlum (Post 1377828)
Since the predicted ranks came out Im gonna revise my predictions:

Archimedes:

1st Seed: 1477,2485,20,900

Curie:

2nd Seed:1241,254,1501,2478

Galileo:

6th Seed: 67,1717,2481,179

Newton:

2nd Seed: 971,1114,610,3147

Einstein:

Curie V Archimedes
Winner Curie

Newton V Galileo
Winner Newton

Curie V Newton
Winner and Champion Curie

I thoroughly approve. Although the Einstein results could be significantly improved...... ;)

brandon.cottrell 22-04-2014 19:04

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by I-DOG (Post 1377767)
Einstein
2013 World Champions: 67, 148, 1730, 1717
Finalists: 2056, 33, 20, 2158

If I'm not mistaken the 2013 world champs were 1241, 610 and 1477 :rolleyes:

Chris is me 22-04-2014 19:15

Re: Einstein 2014
 
I don't know where you guys are all getting this idea that 20 is going to be the 16th selection on Archimedes. 20 is a top 5 team in the division, excelling at any role in the game. About the only thing they can't do is a point blank low goal high shot. Barring some kind of catastrophe I don't expect them to escape the first round.

Once EWCPCast airs I'll make predictions based on the bracket generated in the show. The show bracket ignores strength of schedule, carried teams, bad scouting so it may not be the most accurate but this is for fun anyway, right?

Justin Shelley 22-04-2014 20:16

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Archimedes
Winners: 2056, 33, 900, 2158

Curie
Winners: 254, 624, 4522, 1714

Galileo
Winners: 148, 3683, 1730, 217

Newton
Winners: 1986, 16, 3284, 111

Einstein
2014 World Champions: 254, 624, 4522, 1714
Finalists: 148, 3683, 1730, 217

hrench 23-04-2014 09:59

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnSchneider (Post 1377781)
1717 as a 4th robot? :confused:

iF 1717 doesn't want to be the fourth robot for Galileo, 1108 will be happy to do it. I'm really surprised we're not making anybody's lists. ?

Mrcope9 23-04-2014 11:19

Re: Einstein 2014
 
My picks:

Archimedes: 2056, 33, 2444, 2158

Curie: 254, 624, 11, 1718

Galileo: 67, 148, 1730, 3937

Newton: 1114, 1285, 341, 3847

G vs C, Cuire
A vs. N, Archimedes
Winner: Archimedes

carlgrass32 23-04-2014 14:01

Re: Einstein 2014
 
33,1918,503-Archimedies (F)
67,494,217-Galileo (W)
68,74,1714-Curie (SF)
314,1678,2085 (SF)

David8696 23-04-2014 14:11

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by carlgrass32 (Post 1378057)
33,1918,503-Archimedies (F)
67,494,217-Galileo (W)
68,74,1714-Curie (SF)
314,1678,2085 (SF)

4 team alliances this year.

AlexD744 24-04-2014 01:09

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Ok, here are my crazy predictions.

Arch: 2nd seed 2056-1625-175-2067
Curie: 3rd seed 254-177-4055-1629
Galileo: 1st seed 67-973-179-494
Newton: 1st seed 1114-971-341-25

C beats A in 3
G beats N in 2
G beats C in 2

973's goalie post and 179's terrible match schedule end up making the difference for this powerful alliance. Plus 67 has learned from their loss in MSC and will not let defense stand in their way.

177 continues where they left off after a less than spectacular 1st seed "scorches" 254 into the 3rd seed captain.

2056 and 1625 pair up for a second Einstein trip together, but again only win the second of the three match-ups against 177.

341 falls in the selections similar to at MAR Champs giving that alliance a breeze to Einstein, and the strategic power behind the glass brings them within just a few points of a win in both Einstein matches.

Can't wait to see all of this proven wrong over the next few days. Good luck teams!

1493kd 24-04-2014 08:31

Re: Einstein 2014
 
I could not agree more. Yes I have some local personal bias to team 20 but from watching many webcast this year and seeing them all season they are one of the most complete teams around. Along with the fact that they have outstanding strategy and execution. I think they are the most underrated team going into the championship.Especially after winning 2 regionals.

Best of luck team 20



Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1377861)
I don't know where you guys are all getting this idea that 20 is going to be the 16th selection on Archimedes. 20 is a top 5 team in the division, excelling at any role in the game. About the only thing they can't do is a point blank low goal high shot. Barring some kind of catastrophe I don't expect them to escape the first round.

Once EWCPCast airs I'll make predictions based on the bracket generated in the show. The show bracket ignores strength of schedule, carried teams, bad scouting so it may not be the most accurate but this is for fun anyway, right?


Lil' Lavery 24-04-2014 13:14

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by carlgrass32 (Post 1378057)
33,1918,503-Archimedies (F)
67,494,217-Galileo (W)
68,74,1714-Curie (SF)
314,1678,2085 (SF)

I sense no Michigan bias, whatsoever. ;)

The_ShamWOW88 24-04-2014 14:54

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Little late in the game but here's my predictions for the Champs based off of predicted final rankings and seedings

ARC: 2485, 1625, 175, 1671
CUR: 254, 469, 2403, 772
GAL: 67, 1717, 1023, 558
NEW: 1114, 610, 997, 5188

ARC over CUR
GAL over NEW

ARC over GAL

World Champs: 2485, 1625, 175, 1671
Finalists: 67, 1717, 1023, 558

David8696 24-04-2014 16:00

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by The_ShamWOW88 (Post 1378280)
Little late in the game but here's my predictions for the Champs based off of predicted final rankings and seedings

ARC: 2485, 1625, 175, 1671
CUR: 254, 469, 2403, 772
GAL: 67, 1717, 1023, 558
NEW: 1114, 610, 997, 5188

ARC over CUR
GAL over NEW

ARC over GAL

World Champs: 2485, 1625, 175, 1671
Finalists: 67, 1717, 1023, 558

I like this one. I nominate this for Official Einstein Prediction of Chief Delphi. :D

Flimsor 26-04-2014 06:42

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by I-DOG (Post 1377767)
Newton
Winners: 3rd Seed 610, 1678, 330, 1983
Finalists: 1st Seed 1986, 1114, 3284, 1806

Hey, thanks for the mention! My team would be ecstatic if this happened. No Pacific Northwest team has ever made it to Einstein.

FoleyEngineer 28-04-2014 17:49

Re: Einstein 2014
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LoweIQ (Post 1375346)

Just for fun, here's my guess: All 8th Alliances!
Archimedes: 2590, 3467, 2959, 781
Curie: 3476, 177, 68, 2648
Galileo: 973, 3683, 3098, 193
Newton: 910, 330, 846, 2415

I have to give some major props to LoweIQ for your prediction on Newton! We ended up 3rd alliance captain and picked 846, 330, and 1507. You got them all right except the 4th team member. Wow! :yikes:


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