Originally Posted by NOAA

Sunday night looks to be dry across much of the forecast area, with
models indicating a slower yet eastward progression of showers and
thunderstorms from western Missouri associated with a southwest
shortwave progged to move into western Missouri around 00Z Monday.
Current expectation is for precipitation to gradually overspread mid
Missouri by around 09Z, and the remainder of the forecast area
during the day. Have gone with more thunder than previous forecast
packages, especially Monday/Monday evening, given ample moisture
convergence and frontogenetical forcing associated with the cold
front moving through the forecast area during the afternoon and
evening hours. The GFS, NAM, and local WRF are also indicating
MUCAPE ahead of the front in the 1000-1200 J/kg range, and while
severe weather isn`t anticipated at this time, currently felt it
prudent to up the mention of thunder for Monday/Monday evening given
the instability present ahead of the advancing cold front.

The cold front and associated precipitation should be well southeast
of the area by Tuesday morning as the main trough axis shifts east
of the Mississippi River Valley and surface high pressure builds in
to the region in the wake of the front. Thus, temperatures Tuesday
will be cooler, though the cooldown will be short-lived as another
ridge will build over the region and amplify by Wednesday in
response to the deepening trough over the eastern CONUS and a lee
trough/developing low pressure over the plains. The GFS, GEM, and
ECMWF all continue to indicate the potential for some ridge-runner
type storms to develop Wednesday/Wednesday afternoon, though the GFS
and GEM keep any QPF just north of the forecast area Wednesday, with
the ECMWF brushing light QPF over northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening. Have maintained a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the northern tier
of the forecast area on Wednesday to account for this.

Late Wednesday night through Thursday night will be the next chance
for widespread precipitation across the forecast area, as the
aforementioned low developing over the north plains begins to move
eastward toward the Great Lakes, with an accompanying cold front
progged to move through the middle Mississippi Valley. Have not
made many changes to the going forecast at this time, given
discrepancies in timing that remain between the GFS and ECMWF, the
ECMWF continuing to be about 6 hours faster than the GFS. Feel that
the broad-brushed chance pops, with likely pops Thursday for
portions of the area should be sufficient at this time. Model
differences aside, the cold front should be exiting the area to the
east by Friday morning. Do not expect temperatures to drop much on
Friday in the wake of the cold front, as westerly flow remains at
low levels, though as the low pressure system moves toward the
Great Lakes and another ridge begins to take shape over the plains,
Friday night and Saturday should be cooler under northwest flow, and
thus have maintained the cooler trend with temperatures at the end
of the period.

Originally Posted by tj_griffiniv96 (Post 1376875)

What district Affiliation is michigan in

1. Pacific Northwaest
2. New England
3. MAR
4. FIM

Originally Posted by Brandon1266 (Post 1377125)

Let's hope for no repeats of 2012!

Originally Posted by Koko Ed (Post 1377167)

There may be storms on Thursday but nothing scheduled so far for the other days.

Originally Posted by Wayne Doenges (Post 1377709)

Can we possibly reschedule the storms, on Thursday, to maybe next week :D

Originally Posted by DjScribbles (Post 1377170)

The sample size may be small (4 days in 2012, and 4 days in 2013), but the numbers do not lie... it must be a terrible place to live :rolleyes:

Originally Posted by Wayne Doenges (Post 1377709)

Can we possibly reschedule the storms, on Thursday, to maybe next week :D

Originally Posted by Koko Ed (Post 1377710)

Looks like next week is gonna get kind of chilly.
Now there may be rain and storms Saturday. Just in time for the finale.
The storm on Thursday could be the scary tornado spawning type.