Chief Delphi - Predictions Championship 2014: Curie

The odds of an event with a 25% probability not happening at least once after thirteen iterations are a mere 2.375%. Yet, we live in the world where that chance has come to fruition, as Curie has been held winless in all thirteen previous years of division play, dating all the way to when "Nationals" were held at Epcot. Yet previous outcomes do not influence pure chance, so if we believe the outcome of Einstein is more luck than anything else, picking the field over Curie is still the wise choice. With a line-up featuring as much star power as Curie, it's hard to leave it to chance. Loaded divisions have failed to deliver before though, through combinations of scorched earth picking, attrition, rotten luck, differences in style of play, or simply phenomenal alliances forming elsewhere. More importantly, Aerial Assist is not simply about throwing star teams on the field together, and some of the terrific finishers on this field may be forced into roles they're less comfortable in. The best constructed alliance will win out, even if it doesn't have the biggest names.

TIPS:

CRyptonite and Bobcat Robotics were both left outside of Championship last year, but managed to reach Curie with their high-release catapult finishers in 2014. 177 saw their personal Einstein streak broken by two years away from St. Louis, though SPAM and Sab-BOT-age kept streak of UTC-sponsored teams on Einstein alive in their absence. While they lack the sure-fire, double-hot autonomous of 624, they should be able to hang tough with their Texas counterparts as one of the premiere scoring machines in the division. Either of these teams are capable of winning the division on the right alliance, but will need terrific alliance partners and some good fortune.
After the tremendous success Las Guerillas has experienced in recent season, it's easy to see how some might view their 2014 campaign as a let down with only a single district victory. While 469 doesn't dominate matches the way they have in some previous games, they're an outstanding trussing machine that can clear space for their partners and dish out hard hits when necessary. If they can find teammates that can keep the three-assist cycles moving under defensive pressure, they will be very dangerous.
After 86 official matches, a week zero scrimmage, and four districts worth of unbag time, you'd be very hard pressed to find a team with more mileage on their competition robot than 125. The NUTron's experience paid off, with district wins at Rhode Island, Northeastern, and Pine Tree followed by an invitation to the #2 alliance at BU. Only a couple teams in New England were as capable of consistently burying ball in the top goals as 125 this season. While the extra time with their machine allowed them to work the kinks out of their system, the amount of wear and tear on the robot does add up, and surviving the championship elimination tournament is hard enough for any team.
Despite a handful of finalist appearances, 359 couldn't find a way to win a regional between 2003 and 2009. Things changed for the Hawaiin Kids with the turn of the new decade, winning twelve of their next fourteen regional events (including three-win seasons in 2010 and 2014). One of the things the 2011 Chairman's Award winners has yet to do is compete on Einstein. 359 once again has a blazingly fast machine, this time couple with not one, but two different launching mechanisms. Their variability and consistent performances will earn them a spot on the field in eliminations, but their odds of reaching Einstein increase if they aren't forced to be the focal point of their alliance, so they can work to make their partners better.
1718 has been one of the most consistent performers in Michigan for a while now, even if their banner count doesn't show it. The Fighting Pi have a terrific machine again in 2014, and will have more than a fighting chance at making noise in the eliminations, even if this stacked division. They're one of the better teams in Curie at quickly finding space to shoot, and only a handful of teams possess more breakaway speed than they do. Their double-hot goal autonomous is something only a handful of other teams in the division can match, and will certainly help them seed highly. It wasn't a mistake that they were the #1 ranked team at MSC, and while nothing's certain in qualifications at championship, it's not unthinkable that they might be able to seed on top of the division.
It's hard to believe that a team as good as SPAM had never won multiple regional events in the same season prior to this year, but 2014 is the first and only time that 180 had managed to win twice before championship. They frequently carried their alliance in to match victories in Orlando, and had terrific chemistry with Children of the Swamp a few weeks later in Ft. Lauderdale. Their intake is quicker than most, their shot has a deadly flat release with a huge sweet spot and is terrific for getting the ball over the truss and to human players. Their lack of hot goal detection will set them ever so slightly back compared to some other scorers, but it's not a make or break issue. This division is rough, but if SPAM can find a finisher of similar caliber to play with, it would be surprising to see them eliminated before the semi-finals.

DARK HORSE:

135 has been around since 1998, and maintained a pretty healthy trophy case over the years. But the Black Knights lacked any gold medals until they finally punched through to win their first regional at Crossroads this year. It didn't take them long to add another banner to the collection, when they won Boilermaker two weeks later. They certainly haven't faced competition anywhere near as fierce as what they'll see on Curie, but they punished opponents who gave them scoring chances at both of the regionals they attended, and are capable of doing so again.

SLEEPER:

Ignoring mecanum wheels on intakes, 4522 has a good a chance as anyone at breaking the the "no mecanums on Einstein" claim. After a disappointing loss via fouls in the Razorback finals, it looked like Team SCREAM's season may be over when they were eliminated in the semis at the increasingly competitive GKC regional. A late registration for Oklahoma City allowed them one more chance, and they capitalized in convincing fashion. Their swift scoring machine went toe-to-toe with the Bomb Squad earlier in the season, and if they can manage to find the right match-ups that offensive potential could be tapped again.

LOCKS:

There are very few teams who as more sure bets to reach the finals at an event as the High Rollers. They've reached at least the division finals the past three years at championship and in 2007 and 2008 before that. At the regional level, 987 has reached the finals at every event they've been to since SVR in 2009, and sixteen of eighteen events since 2005. Triple Seven is another excellent 987 robot, the their drive crew follows their hallmarks of being strategically flexible and great at thinking on the fly. They showed their willingness and effectiveness to play in a support and assist role in Vegas, yet were able to finish effectively when required.
There's not much room to improve on a season with three victories from the #1 alliance, so 118 decided to replicate their 2013 effort in 2014. The Robonauts will look to improve on their loss as the #1 seed in the semi-finals on Galileo last year by advancing to Einstein for just the third time in their very successful history. 118 took on different roles en route to their three victories, and have demonstrated the ability to finish, truss, ground load, human load, and assist at the championship level.
Championship has not always been kind to the Cheesy Poofs, but they've never been as battle tested as they have been in 2014. 254 dominated Central Valley then took home banners from two of the most anticipated and highly competitive regionals of the season, Waterloo and Silicon Valley. Barrage was built for the three-ball, triple-hot autonomous routine they unveiled right out of the bag, but has turned into a terrific all-around machine and hands-down the best finisher in FIRST. While they improved their direct loading in San Jose, it remains the one slight weakness in their game, as they don't have the margin for error that some other top teams do (which can be important when being harassed or loaded by an alliance partner's human player). Yet that flaw is minor compared to their tremendous strengths. Considering the level of competition they faced this season, their 50-5 record is astounding, and their 12-0 elimination record at Waterloo and SVR even more so. Even in this division, it would be tremendously surprising if 254 doesn't have the option of joining the #1 alliance, and anything short of a division title would be considered a disappointment for them.

Just a reminder, these predictions are not meant to be comprehensive or even necessarily "the best" teams on the field. Rather, they provide a glimpse of some of the most interesting competitors. If you don't like the predictions, go out there and prove them wrong!