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Event Waitlist and Capacity Transparency
Forgive me if there's already a thread for this, but I want us to have a good discussion on it before we do registration again in the Fall of 2015. Why is FIRST not more transparent with the waitlists? I don't even care who is on it. Just tell me where I am on it. I want to know my chances of getting in. What's the secret all about? What am I missing here? Debate away....
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For example, is this a rookie team that just didn't sign up for the event in time and hasn't registered for any other events? If so, they will probably be the first ones off the waitlist. |
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The wait list should NOT be public knowledge. It's not first come first served. It would give some folks a sense of entitlement to a slot no matter how it was listed.
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For example, here's a potential ordered list of criteria to bring a team into an event off a wait list. 1. Rookie team with 0 registered events (in order by date of registration for the waitlist) 2. Veteran team with 0 registered events (in order by date of registration for the waitlist) 3. Rookie team with 1 registered event (in order by date of registration for the waitlist) 4. Veteran team with 1 registered event (in order by date of registration for the waitlist) 5. Rookie team with 2+ registered events (in order by date of registration for the waitlist) 6. Veteran team with 2+ registered events (in order by date of registration for the waitlist) I'm sure there may be other criteria that FIRST has, but this is just sample concept. If there was a published set of criteria like this, then there would be no problem with publishing the waitlist. If the number of reserved spots was also known, teams could then make educated decisions on choosing whether or not to sign up for a waitlist. For example if a team saw that their local event had 12 rookies with 0 registered event on the waitlist and only 10 reserved spots, they would know that there was no point signing up for that waitlist, and might choose to register for an event with open capacity that's 750 miles away. However if the waitlist only had 3 teams on it with 10 reserved spots, this might lead them to wait it out for their local event. |
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I would email the regional director and ask what your chances are for getting off the waitlist. It should give you an idea of whether you should stay on the waitlist or find another event that hasn't filled yet. We were in a similar situation last year and after talking with the regional director of the event we were waitlisted for, we decided the best action was to sign up for a farther away event that hadn't filled.
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In additional to Karthik's points above, I would like to see a scheduled date in which waitlists will be cleared and an actual cutoff date for rookie team registration (likely both of those things would be the same date). This would give teams/parents/schools a definite date that they will know one way or the other, and give event coordinators a date when they can stop holding spots for rookies that may or may not show up (as holding those spots is at the expense of veteran teams that are left in limbo wondering).
Fortunately my team isn't on a waitlist this year (only because a number of factors worked out in our favor to make that possible), but I estimate just in Michigan there are 138 teams on a waitlist without any clear idea of when they will be accepted or declined or reassigned. At least with districts waitlisted teams know they will get into an event somewhere, even if they don't know when or where, so it's not as bad here as other areas (but still frustrating for team leaders). |
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Regional waitlist selection is completely up to the discretion of the RD, with the general rule of thumb being that rookies and very local teams will get in before veterans and teams traveling from a distance.
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It would be nice if the wait list was cleared via some sort of priority system as Karthik suggests. Unfortunately, proximity, team size, what the team can "bring to the event" (spirit, support, etc.) and even team sponsors are all taken into account. The RDs are trying to create a good event, which means that some times teams that are first to sign up on a wait list are bypassed by others - often for reasons that are not immediately clear and reasons that FIRST might not want to publish.
I've mixed feelings about this. Having been been in the "wait list limbo", I think that some sort of idea about their chances should be communicated to teams. On the other hand, I want to have the overall event be as good as possible. The best thing to alleviate this "fastest fingers" registration would be to have a registration period and a lottery at the end of it. - Mr. Van Coach, Robodox |
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Waitlists should be more transparent, but not public. A public waitlist count would be a good start. |
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Being wait listed most of the time means you probably won't get in. Teams do not usually pull out
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All events this year have 15 spots reserved, that's what teams are waitlisted for. |
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First, more transparency in the number of spots being held or maximum event capacity. Event capacity could easily be added to each event page. While most of us already know the capacity of our chosen events those numbers can change (such as a 58 team event creeping up to 60, 62, or 64). This would in turn let everyone know how many slots are being held for waitlist teams without such a mystery. Additionally, like I already said a count of total teams on the waitlist for an event would be a great addition. Joining the waitlist with two other teams is a lot different than joining the waitlist with 15 other teams. Like you said, the waitlist is entirely at the discretion of the RD. I don't have a good answer for how to get away from that model. Karthik's flowchart would be great but it's just not that simple. Quote:
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I don't see any big reason to not move towards some sort of standardized waitlist system. The advantages gained by giving the individual RDs discretion over the waitlist seem minimal.
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If you want more information on the waitlist for a particular event, the advice to contact the Regional Director is still good. You probably won't get complete transparency about the process, but you will get something, and what you get will usually be good enough to help you make appropriate decisions. |
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As far as program growth, I would be interested in seeing some sort of data on how well rookie teams perform and if they return the next year based on when in the fall they registered (September/October vs. November/December). I feel like there probably comes a point when it would be responsible to suggest waiting a year and starting a prepared and sustainable program rather than rushing at the last minute to throw a team together, especially if there are high numbers of veterans in limbo waiting for theoretical rookie teams. I know there are teams each year that get an extension on the payment deadline, but that's a bit different than not having anything started until November or later. In my spreadsheet of Michigan teams (not representative everywhere, but the only data I keep track of), 14 of our 29 current missing teams from 2014 were rookies last season. The highest concentration of those 14 missing teams is at the higher end of the range of 2014 rookie numbers, suggesting that perhaps rushing teams in at the last minute isn't a particularly favorable scenario for sustainability anyway. |
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I'm normally all for transparency, but this is one of the few times where I feel it is just not possible. Qualitative judgement is a huge part of clearing reserved slots, and there is no way to make a metric to take that into account. Reserved slots are typically meant for local teams, and the RD is normally the person with the best pulse on who in the local community needs to be taken care of.
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I miss the days when FIRST had the waitlist available for the public to view.
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Some optimization problems include too much noise/uncertainty and too much complexity to be solved by a predetermined algorithm. A subset of those can be solved using a more sophisticated algorithm that is allowed enough time/iteration to adapt, while others are too demanding even for that. I think FRC event planning is one of those others.
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[I'm just speculating, I'm sure this never happens...] I'm liking more and more the idea of having a published criteria and opening this all up. - Mr. Van Coach, Robodox |
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88.8% before end of October 80.2% in November 73.1% in December 66.7% in January It would also be interesting to graph sustainability one or two years out, as a function of time registered. E.g. x% teams that registered before end of october continued in FRC for at least two seasons and y% continued for at least three seasons. |
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If you know your home regional will fill up round 1, it's on you to sign up for that in my opinion. Most CA teams near LA, SD, and SVR know their home event will fill up, and wouldn't be foolish enough to try to do this. |
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In our case, we actually did make it off the wait list the one year we decided to risk it. It was a very close thing, though, and we don't want to repeat that gamble. |
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All that said, one of the big concerns we have is volunteers for an event. If we look at the waitlist and we know team A brings us a dozen volunteers and team B brings none, it makes having team A more attractive to the planners. Likewise, sometimes you have key volunteers you just can't do without that are needed at multiple events, and you have to try to make accommodations for their team sometimes. Trust me, we try to avoid it... But sometimes there just aren't any options. |
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Not to say this is the intent, but 1717 is signed up for two events that are not Ventura, and will no doubt bank on getting a waitlist spot for their home event. frclinks.com/t/1717 We were explicitly told by our RDs that we could not do that or they wouldn't let us into the Sacramento Regional. Not sure where we can go for a third play now... -Mike |
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Fwiw I've heard 1717 isn't going to Ventura.
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Except for Rookie teams, everyone must be on first come first served basis! It makes no sense to get penalized for being proactive and getting in line before others. If a system allows humans to make decision then we will have emotions and other reasons taking over and someone being at the losing end.
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Number of Events Registered For Team Age Travel Distance to Event Makes about as much sense no? It's a complicated problem with more than one viable solution. And reducing it to a simple queue is bad for everyone. |
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Reward incompetency/tardiness? Fairness? Those who are wait-listed or lost a spot of their preference due to such reason know how it feels! Now questioning anyone's integrity will open the ugly can of worms.
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Surprised they wont be going though, it's only 45 minutes away. Any advice on a Week 6 event we could get in? |
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When someone says that some spots are reserved for local teams, what they really mean is that those spots are reserved for local teams that couldn't get in for some reason. As an example, if a team from Michigan gets on the waitlist and a team from a Minneapolis suburb is on the waitlist because simply didn't register early enough, the Minneapolis team will almost certainly get off the waitlist first. If the RD sees that the Minneapolis team registered for the Milwaukee regional first and seems to have made Minneapolis a second priority, that team might not get off the waitlist. Quote:
As Jon Stratis pointed out earlier, one factor an RD might look at when choosing which team to take off the waitlist first is how many volunteers that team will provide to the event. If team A could provide 10 volunteers but registered an hour after team B (who can't provide any volunteers), doesn't it make sense to pick team A first? |
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The problem we found last year is that by the time we found out we didn't have a slot at our 2nd regional, there were very few regionals available with open slots.
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Right now the best solution is to contact the RD and ask. Maybe a better solution would be to have the RDs contact the teams with a simple "Hey, I saw you are on the waitlist for _____, but I know that 14 of the 15 reserved slots are already earmarked for other teams so you may want to consider trying another regional." |
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In theory, there shouldn't be an issue with publishing the waitlist just like how they publish officially registered teams. That way you see a waitlist that
1) tells you how many teams are on the waitlist 2) what teams are on the waitlist but it doesn't tell you when or in what order the team registered. We can still keep the implicit criteria and discretion of the RD, but I don't see why the data has to be behind a wall. In reality, you would just need a few people who wouldn't understand that kind of process and get upset with FIRST for not explaining it to them properly. |
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FYI,
Our good friends from 1717 have decided once again to join us at LVR. Sometimes it's worth traveling extra miles for the opportunity to attend a great regional:D |
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A big problem I see with making it publicly available is that regionals can have unique problems requiring a RD to put his/her judgement to use. Priority tends to go towards local teams rather than away teams, many regionals have a good amount of rookies, some like Pittsburgh only has 1 (and a very good one at that). RDs are able to sort things out that a standard formula will get wrong. If a team is trying to scrape together money for registration, they're likely not able to travel very far. They can let the RD of a local regional know that that regional may be the team's only option. Certainly the RD will give them priority over a team from outside the region known to have a huge amount of resources. Things like this happen more often than you think.
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I am usually enthusiastic about sharing as much information as possible, but the wait list process could suffer if it were made more open. Keeping it behind the curtain protects the ones making the decisions from a lot of unnecessary pressure from outside, and lets them concentrate on what they believe to be the important factors.
Even just making the numbers available could be problematic. I worry about the case where there are N+1 teams on the wait list but only room for N. That "+1" team currently does not know how many others were not able to attend the event. If you were the only team to fail to make it off the wait list, would you want to know it? Would you want that fact to be published for everybody to see? |
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The only potential issue I can see with publishing reserve spots and a count of waitlist teams is if RDs which to change the number of reserve spots available. I'm sure RDs have found a bit of pit space to add a team here or there and they may not want that to be public. I don't think that is a very good reason to keep it private but I can see the argument.
I'm all for transparency, we all know that teams get in for various reasons and we know it's not first come first serve, so I don't see who it benefits to keep teams in the dark. Are teams going to feel any more slighted by knowing for sure they signed up before a team that did get in? The system as we have it makes some sense, there are teams that are needed for events like others have said. With a more open system we can better provide feedback to RDs about how they each might improve their process. |
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I doubt that this will ever be a totally transparent process, and I am okay with that. Publishing aggregate information like anticipated total # of spots vs. # of waiting teams seems relatively non-controversial, though.
Even with these numbers, teams should understand that seeing # spots == # waitlisted teams is NOT a firm guarantee one way or another. I have seen plenty of regionals squeeze in an extra team or two at the last minute...and I've also seen late rookie registrations snatch up the last remaining spot. |
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Since there are still valid concerns with posting the amount of teams on a waitlist and the amount of open spots, how about something even simpler and a bit more subjective. There could be a simple solution of a "waitlist status" that is updated by the RD.
Red waitlist status = long waitlist, unlikely to get in Yellow waitlist status = waitlist larger than expected capacity Green waitlist status = Most/all teams from waitlist will get into event Quote:
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If I check that waitlist on Date X and see team A on the list, and then check the same waitlist on Date X+1 and see teams A and B on the waitlist I know that team A registered before team B. |
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It's an extreme case, I know... but I know of at least one team that had decided to just "check things out" one year by attending kickoff as guests, then somehow managed to register before leaving kickoff and got their kit a week late. There are all sorts of situations that can cause an unexpectedly high number of rookies to register for an event, and rookies are pretty well known for registering late. I'd hate to give a team false optimism about being on the waitlist, or to deny a rookie a spot just because they signed up late. Frankly, I think the "contact your RD and ask" option is probably the best. The RD can give you a good idea if you'll get in or not, and they can even elaborate - something like "there's a 50/50 chance you'll get in looking at the waitlist right now. We're waiting on some rookies to make a decision before we can move teams off." The RD can even give you an idea of when teams will be moved off the waitlist in some cases. |
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With a Rookie drop-out rate of nearly 45%, and data to show that later-registering rookies are more likey to not return the following year, we really do need to question whether it's worth it to allow these last-minute registrations by unprepared schools. FRC is a big kid's game, and it's not for everybody. Perhaps these late-registering teams need to take a year to attend some events, fund raise, and gather mentors before jumping into this, bankrupting themselves, and folding. What's the point in putting all the effort into starting new teams if nearly half of them are not managed well and/or have a poor experience and do not return the next year? |
Typically late rookie registration happens because they're often waiting on hearing back on grants before they sign up. I know RDs and FSMs working with rookies try to prevent late registration as much as possible, including encouraging them to register anyway since there is no penalty to drop out. I'm not sure if that's something to avoid though.
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Jon Stratis,
For starters, I'm assuming the RD would be aware of at least a good chunk of those rookies before they actually register, and would set the waitlist status accordingly. However, that's the risk you take with any waitlist, and why the waitlist exists in the first place rather than just putting teams right onto the roster of attending teams. The RD would simply have the ability to publicly show a status to teams curious about the event. |
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I read a few comments here. Your's sounds like the most sensible one. While our program has been fortunate to have participated in multiple regional events over the years, not every team has the same circumstances when signing up for an event. As regionals have saved spots for newer and rookie teams, there are still a bunch of veterans that are faced with similar financial/organizational challenges that make it difficult to get into events. Knowing how many are on the waitlist, gives teams a better perspective on how to plan the rest of their FRC season accordingly, in case they cant get in. |
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Perhaps FIRST should note to teams that if you need more info on the status of your pending registration at an event, talk to the RD. We definitely talk to RD's prior to signing up for any event. I'm not so sure everyone knows that they are the best source of information about event capacity. |
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