What Are The Odds?
 

So, since some items had a maximum order limit and we know the number of priority teams, what are the odds of getting an item if every team ordered the same things at max quantity?
Of course the actual odds are better than this, since not all teams want all of these items.

The lesson here is to have ranked our order list to optimize our chances of getting everything we want. Victors, for instance, were a no-brainer for putting at the end of the 600 credit mark on the Priority List and still being assured of getting them. But if a seat motor was your must have selection, then it belonged at the very top.

We can further refine the estimate of the odds by modeling the many passes through the priority list, but who has time for that?

odds ------ Description
123.9% -- Victor 888 (fc15-019)
70.9% ---- Parker Fitting Kit (fc15-065)
58.9% ---- Microsoft Lifecam HD3000 Camera (fc15-016)
41.3% ---- Digital Multimeter & DVD (fc15-056)
36.1% ---- Pneumatic Pressure Switch (fc15-113)
32.1% ---- 12" Lazy Susan (fc15-035)
30.4% ---- HS-322HD Servo (fc15-063)
30.3% ---- Green Ring Light (fc15-033)
29.6% ---- Ethernet Port Saver (fc15-030)
29.6% ---- Encoder Kit (fc15-039)
28.1% ---- E12 Classmate (fc15-006)
27.8% ---- Battery Charger (fc15-005)
24.4% ---- Crimping Tool (fc15-038)
23.6% ---- Quadro K4000 Video Card (fc15-114)
16.0% ---- cRIO, 4-slot Controller and I/O Kit (fc15-049)
14.9% ---- Freelin-Wade Red Tubing (fc15-011)
14.8% ---- AndyMark 9015 Motor (fc15-002)
14.8% ---- 12V Battery (fc15-008)
14.8% ---- REV Protoboard (fc15-029)
14.8% ---- Freelin-Wade Black Tubing (fc15-009)
14.8% ---- Freelin-Wade Blue Tubing (fc15-010)
12.3% ---- Black Jaguar (fc15-034)
11.4% ---- Freelin-Wade Transparent Blue Tubing (fc15-012)
7.4% ----- AndyMark Snow Blower Motor (fc15-003)
7.1% ----- iglide® PRT slewing ring (fc15-103)
4.6% ----- Black Jaguar (fc15-118)
2.8% ----- Seat Motor (fc15-037)

Re: What Are The Odds?
 

I assure you, someone has time for that.

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

Here's our priority list. It gets a little silly towards the bottom but hopefully we won't have to go down that far. Seeing as this is the first year I'm betting teams are interested in seeing how other teams filled out their lists.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...fuc/edit#gid=0

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

What's with having 1100 credits of breakers spread over 7 line items?

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

I never figured out if the system would actually assign incomplete quantities or not and didn't matter that much to me to ask. Plus we are in dire need of breakers and I don't want to buy them. If I got 600 credits of breakers I wouldn't be upset.

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

Agreed. We're also on the breaker bandwagon.

It's a decent dollar value of breakers in there.

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

So here's a question:

FIRST has said in the blog that there WILL be new items added to FIRST Choice after Kickoff, and that additional points would be allotted to teams at that time. But does anyone know if leftover points from this round will still be valid after Kickoff, or will we need to spend all of our current 600 before the new items are introduced at Kickoff?

FIRST (and AM?) were insisting that teams select 2000+ points worth of items in order to be assured that all their points were spent in this round, but I never read anything that said the points will expire before Jan. 3rd if we don't. We were perhaps somewhat optimistic and perhaps somewhat foolish, but we only put about 850 points worth of items on our Priority List, thinking that if we didn't get what we really want, then the points would still be there after Kickoff to be used for the "good" stuff.

Does anyone have a definitive answer?

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

The way I read the flow chart: If the item is available you get the quantity you ordered & have credits for.

I was thinking it would close at midnight. Good thing I checked yesterday. & Thanks for the First reminder emails.

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

Nvermind - I just found my answer - also in the blog:

So why the push to make everyone blow it all in this round on stuff we don't really need?

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

I think they were emphasizing that if you wanted to spend all 600 units now, you'd probably have to select 2000 units worth due to the lottery.

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

Start Speculation

Since they are still getting feedback from beta teams on new speed controllers, I wonder if CTRE will be donating some Talon SRXs. Or someone could be donating game/field pieces (especially if they're expensive. I am thinking of basketball hoops from 2012 as an example).

My guess is that if that happens, there would be a limit for these items and having 300 leftover credits plus the new unknown amount of new credits might leave your team unhappy. Especially if all there is left are switches.

End Speculation

-matto-

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

Up to 1732 teams submitting Priority Lists now, so there must be some exceptions for late rookies or something. Maybe issues with arranging school payment for shipping charges that delayed the acceptance of some Lists.

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

Taking a quick glance at the list is looks like 59% of all teams submitted and 48% of rookies.

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

Does anyone have a guess as to why more veteran teams didn't submit a list? And why there are situations like where 70-More Martians submitted but sister team 494-Martians didn't?

Re: [FRC Blog] FIRST Choice Priority Lists Due
 

A few teams may have made bone-head moves like me...I set up our priority list, but didn't realize that we had to go through extra steps to submit. At 12:10 when I realized there was a list - and we weren't on it - I freaked out and sent a message to AM. FIRST made a decision to accept partially completed lists, as long as the team finished the submission (obviously - the team could not change the list itself). I finished ours as soon as I got that message.